Will Trump get reelected in 2020? (2019 version) (1 Viewer)

[Da Guru]

I voted yes for reelection.   He can do no wrong in the eyes of his supporters and the democrats are too screwed up to come up with a likable candidate and united stance on the issues that most Americans care about.

I said from the start only the Dems can blow this. They are trying hard.

 

[Bishop]

Didn't vote for him in 2016, but will probably vote for him in 2020.

I don't see the Dems putting their backing behind Bernie Sanders, who I could see beating Trump in the general election.

 

[tonydead]

Could he?  Sure.  But I have to vote no.

- he won by very small margins in a few key states

- he won’t get to run against Hillary 

- he’s absolutely hated by about half the country 

- he’s alienated and pissed off so many folks since he won that will come out to vote against him

- some elderly voters who voted for him will have died off

- Florida has an influx of PR voters and felon voters 

- he’s still trying to screw around with healthcare 

- his tax break didn’t work for a lot of people

- the porn star stuff will keep some folks from voting for him 

- his administration has been in a constant state of flux 

- any type of outside interference I’m assuming will be monitored to make sure neither side 

- his tweeting is embarrassing to some people who voted for him and they will choose to stay home

- and most importantly people now realize that not only does he not know what he’s doing but he’s slowly dragging the Republican Party down with him 

How many of those thing didn't you think about him before the election last time.  I mean some of the list is silly: the porn stars?  He grabbed them by the ##### smack dab in the middle of the debates. 

 

[AAABatteries]

How many of those thing didn't you think about him before the election last time.  I mean some of the list is silly: the porn stars?  He grabbed them by the ##### smack dab in the middle of the debates. 

  the majority of my list has nothing to do with him prior to the last election.  And if the stuff about him cheating on his wife with a porn star and then paying the porn star off was out there then I’m not aware of it.  My prediction is there are many people who voted for him last time that will choose to not vote - and there’s people who wouldn’t vote for Hillary last time that will vote for whoever the D nominee is.  It won’t take many in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to flip those states.  

 

[Gachi]

Last i read he is polling rather poorly in key swing states, so I guess we’ll see.

 

[gianmarco]

Didn't vote for him in 2016, but will probably vote for him in 2020.

I don't see the Dems putting their backing behind Bernie Sanders, who I could see beating Trump in the general election.

Can you explain your reasoning for the bolded?

 

[Thunderlips]

Listening to Trump last night.....I think he's feeding his opponents a "deplorable" moment with his (paraphrasing) "I'm better than all of you" rant at his MI rally yesterday.  

That and weighing in on the Jussie Smollet situation is just flat out dumb. 

 

[James Daulton]

However, anytime the fed cuts rates the market goes up about 80 percent of the time.  I take those odds anytime, most people believe the fed made a mistake raising rates in Dec

Here’s what I don’t understand.  The fed rate sits around 2.5%, historically low, but the economy is too weak to handle it?  Makes no sense.  The fed rate has been double its current level and gdp has grown 4%+.  The fed rate is not a drag on the economy to any significant degree with it so low.

 

[Juxtatarot]

That and weighing in on the Jussie Smollet situation is just flat out dumb. 

Why? The whole Smollet thing is a softball for him to mention to his base.

 

[The Commish]

I respectfully disagree most people I know are better off then they were two years ago, housing market very strong, lots of jobs, Dow can drop but trending upward, consumers spending at a strong rate.  I agree on the additional debt, but look a the Dems green deal, healthcare for all, and increased pay for teachers, none of which I think are bad, but will send the deficit to the Moon.  I think we are on the brink of a deal with China which will increase GDP.  If things stay the same as today Trump wins, I agree with you if things change Trump could lose. But today the numbers favor Trump.

This is awesome for your little bubble...enjoy while you can.  If you take a step back and look at the entire country, most of this isn't completely true and the bold is flat out false according to the BEA.  It has slowed a good bit and all indicators point to that continuing through 2019 into 2020 and maybe beyond.

 

[NCCommish]

I respectfully disagree most people I know are better off then they were two years ago, housing market very strong, lots of jobs, Dow can drop but trending upward, consumers spending at a strong rate.  I agree on the additional debt, but look a the Dems green deal, healthcare for all, and increased pay for teachers, none of which I think are bad, but will send the deficit to the Moon.  I think we are on the brink of a deal with China which will increase GDP.  If things stay the same as today Trump wins, I agree with you if things change Trump could lose. But today the numbers favor Trump.

Most people I know can't buy a house because the prices are out of reach and builders really aren't building starter homes. This is reflected in the overall housing slowdown. Growth has now dropped 3 quarters in a row and is expected to continue to drop.  The Dow is meaningless in the day to day of the people I know. Real wage growth is essentially flat. Most people I know aren't making enough to do a lot of spending and overall growth in spending has slowed. Overall there is an international slowdown and predictions run as low as .9% growth in the next quarter. Not quite as rosy as all that.

 

[The Commish]

Here’s what I don’t understand.  The fed rate sits around 2.5%, historically low, but the economy is too weak to handle it?  Makes no sense.  The fed rate has been double its current level and gdp has grown 4%+.  The fed rate is not a drag on the economy to any significant degree with it so low.

What do you mean by the bold?  for 4Q/4Q it was 2.9....he hit that 4% for a quarter I believe.

 

[gianmarco]

What do you mean by the bold?  for 4Q/4Q it was 2.9....he hit that 4% for a quarter I believe.

I think he means historically it has grown that amount despite a high rate. At least that's how I read it.

 

[Thunderlips]

Why? The whole Smollet thing is a softball for him to mention to his base.

The Smollet thing has the potential to turn into a Kapernick thing.  I think Smollet's wrong.....but I also think there's a large portion of the American public who would see a POTUS using the bully pulpit to continually weigh in the on the supposed crime of a (somewhat) famous citizen as an abuse of power.  When you factor in the race component of the defendant....Trump could galvanize and rally support against him.  At the same time, I don't think weighing in on Smollet is going to help him anymore with his base.  It's just overbuilding support from people who are already lockstep with him.  

 

[James Daulton]

What do you mean by the bold?  for 4Q/4Q it was 2.9....he hit that 4% for a quarter I believe.

I mean in the past.  During real economic booming times. 

 

[The Commish]

I mean in the past.  During real economic booming times. 

Thanks.  Interest rates are there to primarily battle inflation and control the value of the dollar.  I don't think many, if any economists would suggest they are there to control GDP or be a big factor in it anyway.

 

[James Daulton]

Thanks.  Interest rates are there to primarily battle inflation and control the value of the dollar.  I don't think many, if any economists would suggest they are there to control GDP or be a big factor in it anyway.

Agreed.  Which is why using a 2.5% fed rate as an explanation for sub 3% growth, despite the tax cuts for the rich, is simply stupid. 

 

[roadkill1292]

Switching gears from the interesting economy chat for a minute, besides the power of incumbency and the vagaries of the EC which gives him a more than reasonable chance despite losing the popular vote again, Trump also enjoys the power of the double standard. He's got a million skeletons in his closet which draw an amazing "so what?" from millions but you can bet that the slightest misstep in the Dem nominee's past will be in the minds of every voter until election day.

Oh, and SOCIALISM! We have a lot of people in this country who don't understand stuff. That works to Don's advantage, too.

 

[NCCommish]

Well just based on how hard they're fighting to not release it I guarantee the Mueller report is not as rosy as William Barr made it seem. I also don't think that at the end of the day they'll be able to bury it. I think it's coming out, somebody may even leak it. So when that happens people who are not firmly under Trump spell will get a chance to look at the inner workings and realize that not being able to prove it in court doesn't necessarily mean it didn't happen. There's an awful lot of evidence that it did but I wouldn't be worried about that if I was Trump. What I'd be worried about is what's happening in New York where they're following the money and that's where the trouble truly lies.

 

[The Commish]

Agreed.  Which is why using a 2.5% fed rate as an explanation for sub 3% growth, despite the tax cuts for the rich, is simply stupid. 

yup  

 

[Bishop]

Can you explain your reasoning for the bolded?

I don't think Trump has been that bad as president. The economy has been doing well enough under his tenure.

All the circus aside, I wouldn't mind 4 more years. Plus SNL has actually been funny since he took office, so there's that.

 

[Gopher State]

Switching gears from the interesting economy chat for a minute, besides the power of incumbency and the vagaries of the EC which gives him a more than reasonable chance despite losing the popular vote again, Trump also enjoys the power of the double standard. He's got a million skeletons in his closet which draw an amazing "so what?" from millions but you can bet that the slightest misstep in the Dem nominee's past will be in the minds of every voter until election day.

Oh, and SOCIALISM! We have a lot of people in this country who don't understand stuff. That works to Don's advantage, too.

Trump has a lot of junk in his trunk, but his supporters don’t seem to care.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I posted this in another thread - but McConnell is looking to change senate rules to speed up Judicial confirmations.

That should be a pretty clear signal about how the GOP are thinking about Trump's chances in 2020.

He will not be re-elected.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Unfortunately I think he will

 

[Joe Summer]

NO.....if the Democratic candidate is Joe Biden, Corey Booker, Kamala Harris, or Michael Bloomberg.

YES....if the Democratic candidate is Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Yang, Amy Klobuchar, Howard Schultz, or any other Democrat who has formally announced their candidacy.

 

[timschochet]

It surprises me that no one in this thread has mentioned healthcare. It’s the key issue for 2020

 

[David Dodds]

His new campaign shirt is pretty funny

https://shop.donaldjtrump.com/products/official-mr-pencil-neck-limited-edition-tee?fbclid=IwAR1nTntcYjrs5ceV0OpIi67zIl_sXuAJMPbGHcwggXZ3_2hkIdKQugGKODM

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Economy is gonna tank next year and he has done nothing else of any substance.  Won't be easy, especially since Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio put him in the White House.  Those states will not be better off in 18 months than they are today, no way. 

 

[Don't Noonan]

Economy is gonna tank next year and he has done nothing else of any substance.  Won't be easy, especially since Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio put him in the White House.  Those states will not be better off in 18 months than they are today, no way. 

I don't see the economy tanking next year

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I don't see the economy tanking next year

Tank is a strong word. Slow for sure, especially when markets start factoring in the payback on the moronic spending and expiring tax cuts. Corporations have already banked gains without distributing to capital assets. That and an already slowing global market is a harbinger of negative growth imo. 

 

[James Daulton]

What's he going to campaign on in 2020 from an economic perspective?  2% gdp growth, $3T added to the debt, and almost zero real wage growth?  Unemployment will likely still be low but the only people winning in this economy are the rich.

And healthcare is an albatross hanging around his neck.  But at least he'll have the wall that Mexico is paying for... 

 

[GoBirds]

I don't see the economy tanking next year

They’ve been saying this for 3 years now. 

 

[The General]

They’ve been saying this for 3 years now. 

GDP does seem to be slowing. Sub 3 last year I think. Spending remains out of control, going up. 

 

[GoBirds]

GDP does seem to be slowing. Sub 3 last year I think. Spending remains out of control, going up. 

We are in the longest bull market ever, of course there will be a pullback at some point. Trump haters started saying it would happen if he was elected......going into year 3 still waiting for it. I assume even though you all have been completely inaccurate in your claim once we do get a pullback we’ll get the “I told you so” even though it’s just been blind hate since day 1with no accuracy in the claim. 

Being able to keep us from a pullback at this stage of the cycle is pretty impressive. It always comes though, regardless of your political agenda. 

 

[James Daulton]

We are in the longest bull market ever, of course there will be a pullback at some point. Trump haters started saying it would happen if he was elected......going into year 3 still waiting for it. I assume even though you all have been completely inaccurate in your claim once we do get a pullback we’ll get the “I told you so” even though it’s just been blind hate since day 1with no accuracy in the claim. 

Being able to keep us from a pullback at this stage of the cycle is pretty impressive. It always comes though, regardless of your political agenda. 

He cut business cost bigly via the tax cuts for the rich and eliminating regulations that protected our environment.  Even all this juice, gdp is still under 3% and wages have barely budged.  He was supposed to make the economy explode, not keep us from a pullback for goodness sake.  At least that's what he talked about ad nauseam while campaigning. 

 

[GoBirds]

He cut business cost bigly via the tax cuts for the rich and eliminating regulations that protected our environment.  Even all this juice, gdp is still under 3% and wages have barely budged.  He was supposed to make the economy explode, not keep us from a pullback for goodness sake.  At least that's what he talked about ad nauseam while campaigning. 

Maybe what makes it feel so much better is living through this pathetic “recovery”. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/08/01/obama-wins-the-gold-for-worst-economic-recovery-ever/amp/

Sounds like a lot of excuses from you after predicting collapse if Trump was elected which clearly isn’t the case. 

 

[James Daulton]

Maybe what makes it feel so much better is living through this pathetic “recovery”. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/08/01/obama-wins-the-gold-for-worst-economic-recovery-ever/amp/

Sounds like a lot of excuses from you after predicting collapse if Trump was elected which clearly isn’t the case. 

Did Trump promise 4%+ growth, elimination of the debt in 8 years, and eliminating the trade deficit.

Yes or no?

 

[GoBirds]

Did Trump promise 4%+ growth, elimination of the debt in 8 years, and eliminating the trade deficit.

Yes or no?

Want to get into political promises that aren’t kept? I’ve got a novel from Obama I can bump for you. 

It is cute though how you get angry when it’s not your side that does it. Go get em sparky!

 

[The General]

We are in the longest bull market ever, of course there will be a pullback at some point. Trump haters started saying it would happen if he was elected......going into year 3 still waiting for it. I assume even though you all have been completely inaccurate in your claim once we do get a pullback we’ll get the “I told you so” even though it’s just been blind hate since day 1with no accuracy in the claim. 

Being able to keep us from a pullback at this stage of the cycle is pretty impressive. It always comes though, regardless of your political agenda. 

My point was GDP went down last year. That indicated perhaps it is slowing down, no?

 

[timschochet]

Want to get into political promises that aren’t kept? I’ve got a novel from Obama I can bump for you. 

I agree with you that breaking promises is not going to defeat Trump. It never defeats any President- (not even Bush I; people talk about “Read my lips” but he lost because of a poor economy.) 

if Trunp loses that won’t be the reason. 

 

[GoBirds]

My point was GDP went down last year. That indicated perhaps it is slowing down, no?

Could be, not sure if the shutdown impacted that and did anything happen w/China negotiations? Haven't been following wasn't the deadline tomorrow?

 

[timschochet]

I wrote last night that healthcare will be the key issue. But another reason that Trump may lose, almost as important, is that I suspect the American public is tired of his ubiquitousness. We have never had a President who is so constantly in the news as Trump, and never had a President who is so deliberately divisive. Trump is constantly pushing for crisis- look at his latest threat to shut down the Mexican border for instance- this following his shutdown of the government earlier. Even if you’re one of those who agree with Trump on these immigration issues (and lets be clear- the majority of the public does not) you still might not him to press the issue so hard ( and also be so cynical and inhumane). 

And this is another reason why the Democrats are more likely to win, IMO, if they avoid a candidate that is too progressive. I think the public would like a quiet President in the next 4 years, somebody who won’t always be in the news, somebody who won’t rock the boat so much. 

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Economy is gonna tank next year and he has done nothing else of any substance.  Won't be easy, especially since Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio put him in the White House.  Those states will not be better off in 18 months than they are today, no way. 

Trump will probably just say he’s bringing all the factory jobs back from Mexico and there should be enough rednecks to vote him in again 

 

[The General]

ECould be, not sure if the shutdown impacted that and did anything happen w/China negotiations? Haven't been following wasn't the deadline tomorrow?

They released Thursday I believe. Was down to 2.2%. Article I was looking at said it was weaker consumer spending and was predicting slower pace in next quarter.

Could be any other number of factors but I’d say that doesn’t really matter things always happen, the numbers are what they are.

Small piece of data but it is what it is.

Think I read the overall number for the year was good. Matched the best number for a year since the “Great Recession” in 2015 when the socialist Obama was still running the show.

 

[The General]

Want to get into political promises that aren’t kept? I’ve got a novel from Obama I can bump for you. 

It is cute though how you get angry when it’s not your side that does it. Go get em sparky!

Think we could all agree when talking lies and exaggeration Donald is in his own category. He’s off the charts. 

 

[GoBirds]

They released Thursday I believe. Was down to 2.2%. Article I was looking at said it was weaker consumer spending and was predicting slower pace in next quarter.

Could be any other number of factors but I’d say that doesn’t really matter things always happen, the numbers are what they are.

Small piece of data but it is what it is.

Think I read the overall number for the year was good. Matched the best number for a year since the “Great Recession” in 2015 when the socialist Obama was still running the show.

We are due for it. I think we all agree that Obama guy was a real economic juggernaut, the good ol days. 

 

[GoBirds]

Think we could all agree when talking lies and exaggeration Donald is in his own category. He’s off the charts. 

He’s obviously a liar, I just love the “some lies are ok but this is too many” argument. 

 

[The General]

We are due for it. I think we all agree that Obama guy was a real economic juggernaut, the good ol days. 

Went from in the tank to at the end when the yearly GDP is matching what we have now.

 

[James Daulton]

Want to get into political promises that aren’t kept? I’ve got a novel from Obama I can bump for you. 

It is cute though how you get angry when it’s not your side that does it. Go get em sparky!

Trump was elected to improve the economy.  Not only has he not done that, he's still operating his businesses, there's no cheap/good healthcare like he promised would be easy, no wall paid for by Mexico, no improvement in the trade deficit, and every time he opens his mouth or tweets the amount of pride many people feel being an American drops a bit.

He's a disaster of the highest order.  But by all means compare all that to "like your doctor keep your doctor" and "there are 57 states."  Those are the two gotos for Trump supporters.  

 

[The General]

He’s obviously a liar, I just love the “some lies are ok but this is too many” argument. 

I’m not sure of the lies you are referring to but Trump is off the charts - it’s part of his strategy. It works for him but it’s different than Obama, or any politician really. Hopefully it’s unique to him and doesn’t become the norm.