Will Trump get reelected in 2020? (2019 version) (1 Viewer)

[Don't Noonan]

As someone who has lived on the boarder (and crossed back and forth over it probably 75 times) my entire life this whole thing is asinine.  PURE political fodder.  My next door neighbor is boarder patrol, like any protection agency they’d like more money and resources to better do thier job but that will always be the case.  This is fear mongering pure and simple, all while we all watch our education system crumble and continue to get funding cut.  It heartbreaking and absolutely frightening to watch.  

Totally disagree.  As an Arizona resident with friends who share stories from border agents it is out of control.  We are holding these folks crossing the border and instead of shipping them back we send them on airline flights to places like Chicago on our expense.  So stupid.

 

[tommyGunZ]

As someone who has lived on the boarder (and crossed back and forth over it probably 75 times) my entire life this whole thing is asinine.  PURE political fodder.  My next door neighbor is boarder patrol, like any protection agency they’d like more money and resources to better do thier job but that will always be the case.  This is fear mongering pure and simple, all while we all watch our education system crumble and continue to get funding cut.  It heartbreaking and absolutely frightening to watch.  

This is 100% accurate.  I live 20 minutes from the busiest border crossing in the world, and the only crisis is the humanitarian one Trump created. 

 

[dkp993]

This is 100% accurate.  I live 20 minutes from the busiest border crossing in the world, and the only crisis is the humanitarian one Trump created. 

I think we lived in the same city.  SD.  

 

[dkp993]

Totally disagree.  As an Arizona resident with friends who share stories from border agents it is out of control.  We are holding these folks crossing the border and instead of shipping them back we send them on airline flights to places like Chicago on our expense.  So stupid.

I’m certainly not going to try to refute stories that you’ve heard, but I’m speaking from first-hand lifelong experience.

 

[Don't Noonan]

I’m certainly not going to try to refute stories that you’ve heard, but I’m speaking from first-hand lifelong experience.

me too

 

[sho nuff]

So you expected Trump to win in 2016?  That is what I thought.  Stop it with the popular vote argument.  

Who made a popular vote argument?  The discussion was about polling.

And why was this deleted the first time I replied?

 

[JohnnyU]

So...the polls were wrong because people didn't admit voting for Trump.  Which sounds interesting til you look at the polling and the percent of overall votes and how close they were.

More was written here than just one point.

There were a lot of forecasters out there projecting Clinton as the winner using state and national polls and based on those polls they were projecting a very high probability Clinton would win.  Nationally the polls weren't too bad, they projected she would win the popular vote and she did.  States like Pennsylvania and Ohio went for Trump in a much greater margin than was originally predicted.  

First, who was in the polls?  Non-response Bias - The people who will take your survey are different from the people who won't take your survey.  People who have a lower income, less education, less engaged in politics are less likely to take these surveys.  And if those people don't take the surveys and have a higher than expected turnout to vote, that is a problem with your poll.

Then you have those that voted for Trump even though it was socially undesirable by some people and they don't want to admit it to an interviewer or pollster they plan on voting for Trump.  Then when they get into the poll booth who they actually vote for is different from what they told pollsters. 

Also problem with getting more people telling you they are going to vote than actually turns out.  Pollsters do modeling likely / unlikely electorate   So based on what they're told they put people in groups of likely or unlikely voters. 

Measuring support groups that would turn out for each candidate was difficult in 2016.  Question whether Clinton could turn out some of those coalition groups that turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012.  Trump drew support from some groups that were traditionally democratic, particularly in some of those Midwest states he was able to flip. 

 

[tommyGunZ]

More was written here than just one point.

There were a lot of forecasters out there projecting Clinton as the winner using state and national polls and based on those polls they were projecting a very high probability Clinton would win.  Nationally the polls weren't too bad, they projected she would win the popular vote and she did.  States like Pennsylvania and Ohio went for Trump in a much greater margin than was originally predicted.  

First, who was in the polls?  Non-response Bias - The people who will take your survey are different from the people who won't take your survey.  People who have a lower income, less education, less engaged in politics are less likely to take these surveys.  And if those people don't take the surveys and have a higher than expected turnout to vote, that is a problem with your poll.

Then you have those that voted for Trump even though it was socially undesirable by some people and they don't want to admit it to an interviewer or pollster they plan on voting for Trump.  Then when they get into the poll booth who they actually vote for is different from what they told pollsters. 

Also problem with getting more people telling you they are going to vote than actually turns out.  Pollsters do modeling likely / unlikely electorate   So based on what they're told they put people in groups of likely or unlikely voters. 

Measuring support groups that would turn out for each candidate was difficult in 2016.  Question whether Clinton could turn out some of those coalition groups that turned out for Obama in 2008 and 2012.  Trump drew support from some groups that were traditionally democratic, particularly in some of those Midwest states he was able to flip. 

Do you think statisticians and pollsters have ever thought of this?

Unreal. 

 

[Widbil83]

Could the President have used the Barr memo to win the election? Can he still? Yes here’s how: 

Drop the immigration stuff. Drop the attacks against Obamacare. Announce that you’re glad the Mueller investigation is over, say that you have no hard feelings, you just want to move on. Then announce a big infrastructure plan and ask for bipartisan support. 

Its so easy. If he were to do this, he’d win back independent support. The Democrats would have a very difficult time beating him. But thankfully for them he’s taken the exact opposite approach. He’s doubled down on immigration, attacked Obamacare, and he means to keep talking about the “Russia Hoax” and name calling his enemies for the next two years. He’s handing the Dems the election IMO. 

Please tell me this was an Aprils Fools post. 

 

[timschochet]

So you expected Trump to win in 2016?  That is what I thought.  Stop it with the popular vote argument.  

I very much feared he would. Did I predict it beforehand?  No. 

But that’s not the point. Some people did get it wrong in 2016, obviously. My objection is that you and other Trump supporters continue to use this to disparage any poll you don’t like. It gets really old. 

 

[timschochet]

Please tell me this was an Aprils Fools post. 

After he’s lost you can go back and try to figure out why. The answer was staring you in the face. 

 

[[scooter]]

So you expected Trump to win in 2016?  That is what I thought.  Stop it with the popular vote argument.  

I very much feared he would. Did I predict it beforehand?  No. 

Tim, being Tim, was all over the map. Here are a few highlights:

March 1:

Look, I know I've written this all before and I apologize for repeating myself. But no matter how passionate Trump's supporters are, the formula DOES NOT CHANGE. Short of an economic disaster or horrible act of terrorism, there's no path for Trump to win. And the oddsmakers know it. 

August 16th:

1. Everything is going Hillary's way, thankfully. Hard to see how she loses now; I no longer fear a cataclysmic event that will turn things around. My only remaining concern is what we in California call the "Bradley effect"; namely that a lot of voters are prepared to vote for Trump but won't admit it in the polls. That seems unlikely to change the result but who knows? Makes me nervous. 

October 8th:

I still say Trump has a shot to win this thing. If the election were being held tomorrow, or next week, then sure its over. But 30 days is an infinite amount of time in politics. Who knows what might happen? People are fickle. I will only feel secure when this thing is finally over.

October 20th:

It must be nice to be consistently confident all the way through. I certainly wasn't. I'm not 100% confident even now (though lets say I'm about 95% sure, which is pretty good.)

But back in late August and early September I really thought Trump had a decent shot to win this thing. 

October 20th:

Now that it looks like Trump is surely going to lose, the biggest problem our country faces going forward is this: Trump is still incredibly popular among Republicans, more so than Paul Ryan or any of the establishment figures.

 

[Don't Noonan]

Tim, being Tim, was all over the map. Here are a few highlights:

March 1:

Look, I know I've written this all before and I apologize for repeating myself. But no matter how passionate Trump's supporters are, the formula DOES NOT CHANGE. Short of an economic disaster or horrible act of terrorism, there's no path for Trump to win. And the oddsmakers know it. 

August 16th:

1. Everything is going Hillary's way, thankfully. Hard to see how she loses now; I no longer fear a cataclysmic event that will turn things around. My only remaining concern is what we in California call the "Bradley effect"; namely that a lot of voters are prepared to vote for Trump but won't admit it in the polls. That seems unlikely to change the result but who knows? Makes me nervous. 

October 8th:

I still say Trump has a shot to win this thing. If the election were being held tomorrow, or next week, then sure its over. But 30 days is an infinite amount of time in politics. Who knows what might happen? People are fickle. I will only feel secure when this thing is finally over.

October 20th:

It must be nice to be consistently confident all the way through. I certainly wasn't. I'm not 100% confident even now (though lets say I'm about 95% sure, which is pretty good.)

But back in late August and early September I really thought Trump had a decent shot to win this thing. 

October 20th:

Now that it looks like Trump is surely going to lose, the biggest problem our country faces going forward is this: Trump is still incredibly popular among Republicans, more so than Paul Ryan or any of the establishment figures.

Nice work Scooter

 

[timschochet]

Hey man I’m always unsure

 

[ShamrockPride]

Tim, being Tim, was all over the map. Here are a few highlights:

March 1:

Look, I know I've written this all before and I apologize for repeating myself. But no matter how passionate Trump's supporters are, the formula DOES NOT CHANGE. Short of an economic disaster or horrible act of terrorism, there's no path for Trump to win. And the oddsmakers know it. 

August 16th:

1. Everything is going Hillary's way, thankfully. Hard to see how she loses now; I no longer fear a cataclysmic event that will turn things around. My only remaining concern is what we in California call the "Bradley effect"; namely that a lot of voters are prepared to vote for Trump but won't admit it in the polls. That seems unlikely to change the result but who knows? Makes me nervous. 

October 8th:

I still say Trump has a shot to win this thing. If the election were being held tomorrow, or next week, then sure its over. But 30 days is an infinite amount of time in politics. Who knows what might happen? People are fickle. I will only feel secure when this thing is finally over.

October 20th:

It must be nice to be consistently confident all the way through. I certainly wasn't. I'm not 100% confident even now (though lets say I'm about 95% sure, which is pretty good.)

But back in late August and early September I really thought Trump had a decent shot to win this thing. 

October 20th:

Now that it looks like Trump is surely going to lose, the biggest problem our country faces going forward is this: Trump is still incredibly popular among Republicans, more so than Paul Ryan or any of the establishment figures.

Moar MoAr MOAR!!!!

......please?