Win percentage for teams with given record (1 Viewer)

[Thorpe]

I took a look at the win percentage for teams with a given record (ie: what is the win percentage for teams going into game with an 8-6 record) and there were a few interesting results, but the one that stands out is this one:

From 1980 to 2006, there have been 178 times when a team with a record of 9-6 has played a game. These teams have only won the game 43.8% of the time. Here are the records, qualifying game, and win percentage for all games heading into the last week of the year (except that I threw out records involving ties, because the sample size is too small - only 12 ties since 1980). The only explanation I can think of is that the 9-6 teams need the win for the playoffs and they choke. 178 games seems like a significant sample size, but I am not a statistician. 3-12 teams have a higher win percentage.

<<results deleted do to bug in query - see below>>

If there is interest, I will post more results.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Could be that the 9-6 teams clinched the week before and are taking their foot off the throttle. Same thing possibly for the 12-3's as well.

There really have been 15 teams that went 15-1 since 1980? Didn't seem like that many.

-QG

 

[Thorpe]

Could be that the 9-6 teams clinched the week before and are taking their foot off the throttle. Same thing possibly for the 12-3's as well.There really have been 15 teams that went 15-1 since 1980? Didn't seem like that many.-QG

Good catch on the 14 win teams. I've got a bug somewhere in my query. Should only be 5 teams (SF in 84, Chi in 85, Wash in 91, Min in 98, and Pitt in 04). Stay tuned for update.

 

[Statcruncher]

As a fellow statcruncher I'm must admit you just made my brain cramp.

 

[Thorpe]

I've got some playoff results messing with my data. I think that explains the 9-6 teams, that make the playoffs then lose.

 

[Thorpe]

OK, I fixed my problem. here are updated results for week 17:

1-14 10 .300000

2-13 20 .300000

3-12 36 .444444

4-11 52 .326923

5-10 62 .387096

6-9 71 .323943

7-8 100 .460000

8-7 89 .550561

9-6 93 .591397

10-5 71 .633802

11-4 54 .685185

12-3 27 .555555

13-2 25 .600000

14-1 5 .800000

Nothing too surprising here, except for 3-12 team doing real well, and 6-9 teams that have given up.

Since this is week 13, here are those results:

0-12 3 .333333

1-11 18 .222222

2-10 40 .325000

3-9 64 .375000

4-8 75 .346666

5-7 111 .450450

6-6 112 .562500

7-5 109 .577981

8-4 93 .559139

9-3 65 .600000

10-2 35 .800000

11-1 15 .666666

12-0 3 .666666

Not much difference between 6-6 teams and 9-3 teams, or between 0-12 teams and 4-8 teams.

Again, if anyone asks, I will post more results.