WIS 2012: Back to the Future II - Draft and Season Thread (4 Viewers)

[Hoos First]

Mine

                                 YUCK

 

[Spartans Rule]

                       Shane VictorinoCarl Crawford          Andres Torres           Logan MorrisonDayan Viciedo                                  Jerry Sands               Stephen Drew           Aaron Hill             Tyler Pastornicky                              Tim LincecumEdwin Encarnacion      Zack Greinke             Adam LaRocheKyle Seager            Dan Hudson               Jerry Sands                       Colby Lewis                       Rick Porcello                       Bruce Chen                                              Javy Guerra                       Heath Bell                        Chris Iannetta                       Hank Conger

I think that's everyone.

The upside of this team is pretty scary. Of course that depends on like 10 guys bouncing back or breaking out.

 

[Brady Marino]

Trying a new way to post a line-up to date, based on positions of the diamond:

                       Mike TroutCarlos Lee             ???                     Matt JoyceJosh Reddick                                   Josh Reddick              Assdribble Cabrera     Jemile Weeks             ???                    Jose Lopez                        Tommy HansonMiguel Cabrera         Brandon Beachy           Yonder AlonsoLonnie Chisenhall      Justin Masterson         Carlos Lee                       Vance Worley                       Aaron Crow                       Sergio Santos                       Eric O'Flaherty                       Francisco Cordero                       Casey Janssen                       Brett Anderson                        Miguel Montero                       The rotting corpse of Darrell Porter

 

[Eephus]

Top three is pretty straight-forward. After that though...

Fourth guy was Avila. Spartans took Wieters with the next pick, and said Avila was on his radar. Couldn't have been all that much of a reach.Wanted at least a good-offense catcher. There were nice starting options taken all theway down to round 10, but the offensive numbers dropped like stone after Wieters was taken (excepting probably Yadier Molina if he maintains 2011 levels).

Avila was a good pick. He'll regress some, but he could drop 100 points off last year's OPS and you'd still be getting ok value.

Zips has him losing 135 points

 

[Doug B]

My squad...

            Jacoby Ellsbury            Ben RevereCameron Maybin                    Jason BayBen Revere                    Bryce Harper

Ellsbury and Maybin can cover a lot of ground. Like the late grab of Russel Martin, too.

 

[Eephus]

Kraft skipped

ChemX OTC to xx28

 

[Tremendous Upside]

My squad...

			Michael Bourn
			Eduardo Nunez

Chris Heisey				           Josh Hamilton
Eduardo Nunez				           Eduardo Nunez





		Ian Desmond		Neil Walker
		Eduardo Nunez		Eduardo Nunez	


			Clayton Kershaw 
Alex Rodriguez   	James Shields    	Paul Goldschmidt
Eduardo Nunez		Hiroki Kuroda		James Loney
		        Jorge de la Rosa	Travis Hafner
			Mike Pelfrey
			Javier Vazquez
			Brett Myers
			Andrew Bailey
                        Rafael Betancourt




			JP Arencibia
                        Travis D'Arnaud

 

[Doug B]

Of course that depends on like 10 guys bouncing back or breaking out.

See, I think all the squads pretty much look that way.

 

[scoobus]

Drew StubbsShin-Soo Choo Jay BruceAllen Craig Allen Craig Alcides Escobar Mark Ellis Mike Aviles Chris CarpenterAdrian Beltre Brandon Morrow Albert Pujols Jhoulys Chacin David Ortiz Jake Peavy Bartolo Colon Jeremy Guthrie Blake Beavan Santiago Casilla Joel Peralta Jose Molina Miguel Olivo
At least they're good at fielding.

 

[Doug B]

Zips has him losing 135 points

Zips has the 2012 regular-season stats already in hand?

 

[Eephus]

			Less
			Art

More				           Thank
Picks				           You

 

[Eephus]

Zips has him losing 135 points

Zips has the 2012 regular-season stats already in hand?

Yes, you finished 78-84

 

[Doug B]

Zips has the 2012 regular-season stats already in hand?

Yes, you finished 78-84

Seriously, just downloaded BBTF's ZiPS spreadsheet from last Wednesday. They still have Avila as the 8th rated catcher. They have him losing A LOT of ABs ... I don't think that's substantiated from what I've read.Going to see how my whole squad looks on the ZiPS sheet tomorrow. I guess I picked a few too many guys off the ZiPS schmidt-list. EDIT: ah ... I see ... they don't like Duda or De Aza at all. Gotta admit, I have to roll sevens with those two. That's two guys I'm expecting to contribute decently, if not at an elite level.

 

[Eephus]

Zips has the 2012 regular-season stats already in hand?

Yes, you finished 78-84

Seriously, just downloaded BBTF's ZiPS spreadsheet from last Wednesday. They still have Avila as the 8th rated catcher. They have him losing A LOT of ABs ... I don't think that's substantiated from what I've read.Going to see how my whole squad looks on the ZiPS sheet tomorrow. I guess I picked a few too many guys off the ZiPS schmidt-list.

All the projection systems (Zips, Bill James, PECOTA, etc.) are limited, particularly for the class of players that are getting picked now. Avila's 2011 BABIP was such an outlier though that he seems like an obvious regression candidate

 

[Doug B]

Jebus, no wonder a lot of you guys aren't sweating drafting 50 rounds ... the ZiPS sheet ranks over 2100 players. Heck, I might be ranked on there somewhere

 

[Doug B]

Avila's 2011 BABIP was such an outlier though that he seems like an obvious regression candidate

Looking online for BABIP stats per player right now, coming up empty.Ironically, the lame fantasy magazine I used last year referenced BABIP a lot.

 

[Eephus]

EDIT: ah ... I see ... they don't like Duda or De Aza at all. Gotta admit, I have to roll sevens with those two. That's two guys I'm expecting to contribute decently, if not at an elite level.

Duda's Achilles Heel IMO is his platoon differential. If he sits against lefties, you get a good season with limited PAs. If he plays every day, you may wind up with a full season's worth of diminished production. Who really knows though? The sample size for his MLB ABs against LHP is very small.

 

[Eephus]

ChemX skipped

22 . 12 [ 516 ] NorthernVoice..OTC to xx58

22 . 13 [ 517 ] Moops. . . . ..

22 . 14 [ 518 ] rodg12. . . . .

 

[the moops]

someone should pick

 

[Northern Voice]

Kraft skipped

ChemX OTC to xx28

22.12 - Brandon Crawford, SSMy team of question marks...

           			Alex RiosVernon Wells      	Vernon Wells   		Ichiro SuzukiDelmon Young                              	Alex Rios   			Derek Jeter   		Jose Altuve 			Brandon Crawford   Orlando Hudson               			Yu DarvishBrett Lawrie  	Ricky Romero 			Joey Votto           			Anibal Sanchez   			           			Henderson Alvarez           			Mike Leake           			Phil Hughes           			Dustin McGowan           			           			Grant Balfour           			Frank Francisco           			Hong-Chih Kuo               		Octavio Dotel            			Wilson Ramos

 

[the moops]

22.13 Freddy Sanchez - 2B, SFG

 

[oso diablo]

halfway done?

 

[rodg12]

22.14 - Jimmy Paredes, 3B, HOU

Good thing Scoobus posted his team. Totally thought Jose Molina was still available and was planning on taking him here...holy crap the catching sucks right now.

 

[SoCalBroncoFan]

My squad...

 

[Eephus]

2215 jerry hairston jr

Can someone pls pm cheese

 

[SoCalBroncoFan]

JD MartinezNick Swisher Ryan Ludwick Andre EthierRyan Ludwick Ryan Ludwick Nobody Daniel Murphy Ryan Roberts Cole Hamels Adam Dunn Matt Cain Shawn Marcum Jordan Zimmerman Huston Street Fernando Salas Aroldis Chapman Josh Spence Luke Gregerson David Hernandez Edward Mujica Eduardo Sanchez Carlos Ruiz Chris Snyder
I have no shortstop yet, but I am hoping that some of my relievers pan out and I will be able to trade some pitching for some hitting.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Avila's 2011 BABIP was such an outlier though that he seems like an obvious regression candidate

Looking online for BABIP stats per player right now, coming up empty.Ironically, the lame fantasy magazine I used last year referenced BABIP a lot.

I'd recommend Fangraphs for all your advanced stats.Hitter BABIP is a tricky one, because hitters have more control over it than pitchers. Not everyone regresses toward the same number.

 

[larry_boy_44]

my team:

			Nyjer Morgan
			Carlos Gomez

Emilio Bonifacio				   Lorenzo Cain
Rajai Davis				           Rajai Davis





		Starlin Castro		Rickie Weeks
                Jed Lowrie              Taylor Green
		Emilio Bonifacio	Emilio Bonifacio	


			Justin Verlander 
Jed Lowrie   	        Yovani Gallardo    	Mat Gamel
Emilio Bonifacio	Brandon McCarthy	Taylor Green
Justin Turner		Zack Britton    	Justin Turner
			Dustin Moseley
			Chris Narveson
			Jose Valverde
			John Axford





			Jesus Montero
                        John Buck

 

[boubucarow]

Avila's 2011 BABIP was such an outlier though that he seems like an obvious regression candidate

Looking online for BABIP stats per player right now, coming up empty.Ironically, the lame fantasy magazine I used last year referenced BABIP a lot.

I'd recommend Fangraphs for all your advanced stats.Hitter BABIP is a tricky one, because hitters have more control over it than pitchers. Not everyone regresses toward the same number.

Yeah, it takes a few years to find a baseline. Speed, line drive percentage, and fly ball rates can affect what a normal BABIP should be for a player. Players like Ichiro will have consistently higher BABIP than Adam Dunn's.

 

[oso diablo]

who broke the thread?

 

[rodg12]

Did cheese and Sammy timeout?

 

[rodg12]

Kraft - SKIP

ChemX - SKIP

22.16 - Cheese (time out?)

22.17 - Sammy (time out?)

22.18 - Boubucarow UP?

22.19 - Jfranco

22.20 - TremUpside

22.21 - Scoobus

22.22 - Larry_Boy

22.23 - RnR

22.24 - BradyMarino

23.01 - BradyMarino

23.02 - RnR

 

[Kraft...]

22.10 - Tyler Skaggs, P

Gamble but if he gets called up for half a season good shot a some solid Lefty IP's

 

[Kraft...]

I only have 4 offensive backups: OF, C, 3B and MI

Some teams have a backup at every position already

 

[Spartans Rule]

I only have 4 offensive backups: OF, C, 3B and MISome teams have a backup at every position already

On these depth charts, most teams have guys backing up multiple positions. I think Eduardo Nunez appeared like 7 times on one of them.

 

[Kraft...]

                         Curtis GrandersonAndruw Jones                                     Melky Cabrera                                       Alex Gordon                 Nick Punto            Nick Punto             Marco Scutero         Kelly Johnson Alberto Callaspo         Jared WeaverMichael Young            Matt Moore              Fredie Freeman                         Max Scherzer                                       Homer Bailey                         Jarrod Parker                         Jacob Turner                         Tyler Skaggs                         Joakim Soria                         Brandon League                         Matt Thornton                          Nick Hundley                         Jason Castro

 

[Kraft...]

I only have 4 offensive backups: OF, C, 3B and MISome teams have a backup at every position already

On these depth charts, most teams have guys backing up multiple positions. I think Eduardo Nunez appeared like 7 times on one of them.

Just noticed that as I started to read through them, fell better now

 

[the moops]

                     Angel Pagan                     Alex PresleyDesmond Jennings                          Corey Hart              Mike Carp                                 Alex Presley           Jose Reyes                Freddy Sanchez          Alexi Casilla             Alexi Casilla Chase Headley         Corey Luebke           Ryan Howard                      Gio Gonzalez           Kendry Morales                                   Scott Baker                                   Ryan Vogelsong                      Bret Cecil                      Kevin Slowey                      Julio Teheran                      Drew Storen                      Alfredo Aceves                      Louis Coleman                       Mike Napoli

 

[boubucarow]

Am I up?

 

[oso diablo]

Did cheese and Sammy timeout?

cheese for sure. sammy would then be up. if he's east coast, then no clock. if not east coast, then he is timed out too. i will send him pm.eta: sammy's profile says he's in NY, NY - so he would be up now with no clock.

 

[the moops]

At least they're good at fielding.

7. Ellis8. Escobar9. Pitcheroof

 

[cheese]

Joey Devine?

 

[rodg12]

Joey Devine?

Available.

 

[scoobus]

At least they're good at fielding.

7. Ellis8. Escobar9. Pitcheroof

You didn't factor in my catcher

 

[Eephus]

22 . 17 [ 521 ] Sammy. . . . .. Skipped

22 . 18 [ 522 ] Boubucarow. . . OTC to 930AM CST

22 . 19 [ 523 ] Jfranco. . . ..

22 . 20 [ 524 ] TremUpside. . .

22 . 21 [ 525 ] Scoobus. . . ..

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

The upside of this team is pretty scary. Of course that depends on like 10 guys bouncing back or breaking out.

Thanks...I certainly chased upside and rebound guys after hammering the starters early. I don't need them all to pan out, but 40-50% would be great.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I only have 4 offensive backups: OF, C, 3B and MISome teams have a backup at every position already

On these depth charts, most teams have guys backing up multiple positions. I think Eduardo Nunez appeared like 7 times on one of them.

He's that good

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Keep on skipping me BTW

 

[boubucarow]

Garrett Jones, 1B, Pirates

 

[jfranco77]

I'm an east coaster... actually already at work and heading to a meeting so if someone could PM next for me I'd appreciate it. As for my pick:

Ryan Theriot, SS/2B SF

Whole Giants' MI just went in the span of about 10 picks.