Would you trade ADP for Fitzgerald and McFadden? (1 Viewer)

[TommyGilmore]

*** First, this is NOT a thread asking for advice on how I should draft or manage my team. Mods, please give me a little leeway here. ***

I've got the 7th pick in an upcoming 8-team draft. I asked the guy with the #1 pick what it would take to pry it away from him. His answer: "Give me your first and seventh round picks." (#7 and #55 overall) That seemed like a pretty fair deal to me, so I checked Dodds' Pick Value Calculator, but Dodds says that I would be losing 9% on that deal.

Really? -9%?

I'm looking at getting Fitzgerald at #7 (I expect Moss, Andre Johnson, and Slaton/Gore/C. Johnson to be available as well). The players expected to be available at #55 are McFadden/Moreno/Larry Johnson/Vincent Jackson, and most second-tier QBs and TEs.

The deal seems like a no brainer to me. ADP is going to be light years ahead of whatever RB I get at 55. But I should still be able to find a solid WR in the 7th or 8th round.

Also, I would be able to fill my roster with an undrafted player at the conclusion of the 16 round draft. Dodds says that I would still lose 5.5% on the deal, but KFFL's draft pick analyzer says that I would be up 1.1%.

What am I missing here?

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

That looks like a good deal to me, going from 7 to 1 is a big jump.

If it is PPR, not nearly as big a deal. Non-ppr, no-brainer.

 

[davearm]

Sit tight and take LT at 1.07. Most will disagree with me but I'd put him at even money to outscore ADP this year.

 

[BassNBrew]

Would you trade D. Williams and (DJax/AGonzo/ERoyal) for ADP?

 

[CalBear]

Pick value calculators have a pretty shaky rational basis to start with, and at best they will tell you what the average pick in the average year will be worth, not what a specific pick in a specific year is worth. Obviously a pick value calculator that gives the #1 pick the same value in 2007 and in 2009 is not telling you the whole story. In 2007 LT was coming off a record-breaking season where he outscored the #2 RB by almost 100 points; his value was off the charts. This year, the consensus pick is Peterson, who didn't even finish as the #1 RB last year, and doesn't catch many passes. His value is nowhere near as high as LT's was in 2007. The pick value chart would give you the same number in both cases, and it would be obviously wrong in at least one of the cases.

 

[TommyGilmore]

Would you trade D. Williams and (DJax/AGonzo/ERoyal) for ADP?

I love Deangelo but I know he will be gone at 1.7. The first 6 picks will be RBs.

 

[BassNBrew]

Would you trade D. Williams and (DJax/AGonzo/ERoyal) for ADP?

I love Deangelo but I know he will be gone at 1.7. The first 6 picks will be RBs.

Maybe in your league, but he is falling that far in half the leagues based on what I'm seeing. Since the post was about relative values of the slots and not your specific situation, I think it explains why the calculator is telling you what it is.

 

[Arizona Ron]

*** Mods, please give me a little leeway here. ***

No

 

[GregR_2]

Pick value calculators have a pretty shaky rational basis to start with, and at best they will tell you what the average pick in the average year will be worth, not what a specific pick in a specific year is worth. Obviously a pick value calculator that gives the #1 pick the same value in 2007 and in 2009 is not telling you the whole story. In 2007 LT was coming off a record-breaking season where he outscored the #2 RB by almost 100 points; his value was off the charts. This year, the consensus pick is Peterson, who didn't even finish as the #1 RB last year, and doesn't catch many passes. His value is nowhere near as high as LT's was in 2007. The pick value chart would give you the same number in both cases, and it would be obviously wrong in at least one of the cases.

The only time I would suggest using a pick value chart or calculator is when it is in a future year and you don't know what the player pool will be like. If it's a trade for this year, then figure out how you expect the draft will go based on ADP and your knowledge of the league. Then look at your ultimate team depending on whether you make the trade or not. If you want to short cut it you can figure out what players are likely to be picked there and ask if you'd trade them straight up.But that falls short if you want a true answer. Instead you should look at what you do with all your picks. Take the situation of a trade of getting a 1st and 5th for a 2nd and 3rd. It might play out that if you have your normal picks you may take your elite RB in 1, a value WR in 2, an elite QB in 3, one of the last worthy RB starters in 4, and top TE who slid in 5.Now you make the trade and you have 2 elite RBs from the 1st. You get to the 4th and you use it on WR. Now you have 2 5ths and you take another WR and the same TE because the QB value is not there.The effect of the trade wasn't just the players involved. Your 4th round pick changed despite not being in the trade. Through 5 rounds we still don't have the same group of positions as you have a QB in one and WR2 in another, somewhere further down the draft other picks will have changed for the trade too. It might be your WR2 and the QB you'll later take are last in their tier and go later than they should in your opinion, so you might get more value that way than you did with the other option.If you really want to figure out if a trade is in your benefit, you should figure out your entire roster as a result of the trade or not. If the trade is for this year's picks, I just wouldn't put much faith in those calculators since they don't do that. Future years you can't do that, so just going with average player values is about the best you can do, so use the calculator then.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Trade "Average Draft Position" for Fitzgerald and McFadden?