Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
So he’s drafted in the second round (about what was expected, maybe a little later) and you drop him 7 slots. Don’t you think that’s a bit of an overreaction?
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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
Interseptopus
Footballguy
That's not what I said. Please dont put words in my mouth.
If you must know, I dropped him 7 slots (actually 5 now after tinkering with my first draft) because he has Marcus Mariota trying to throw him the ball in an offense where the team has come out and said they want to build around the running game. The only worse landing spot would have been Baltimore
And even if Mariota is gonna next year, it's an unknown rookie who could be just as bad. No way in heck I waste a high 1st round pick on hoping for either Mariota to figure it out or the next guy to be good. I'll take a wr who has a good qb throwing him the ball
ETA: I never realistically ever thought hed go round 1. I had him to indy round 2
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jm192
Footballguy
As a Titans fan, I'm stoked we got him.
As a Fantasy/dynasty player--meh. The tough part is, I think this is the year for Mariotta. If he doesn't stay healthy/take a leap--I think we've got to look to a different direction. And either you get a better year out of Mariotta, or you wind up with a different QB at some point who maybe elevates his stock.
As a Fantasy/dynasty player--meh. The tough part is, I think this is the year for Mariotta. If he doesn't stay healthy/take a leap--I think we've got to look to a different direction. And either you get a better year out of Mariotta, or you wind up with a different QB at some point who maybe elevates his stock.
Man, I'll be on an island here it seems, but I don't see this as all that bad of a landing spot. I think there is a path to being the #1 WR(sorry Corey Davis) and there should be favorable matchups across the board, as Brown should move around a lot.
He's still a 1st rounder in my eyes. I'd happily take Brown over guys like Campbell or Hardman.
He's still a 1st rounder in my eyes. I'd happily take Brown over guys like Campbell or Hardman.
He is going to have competition everywhere.
If you go back to DGB, Hunter, and Wright- the Titans have had talented WRs that are extremely underproductive for a long long time. Whether it's Derrick Mason or Rishard Matthews, the smart WR that comes thru time and again has always had value. The other WRs have been oh so questionable regardless of the entire staff changing so many times.
Brown is not as awesome/phenomenal as some earlier in this thread. I mean cmon, if he were that good, he wouldn't have been the 19th pick in the second round. Some are a bit much here. It's gotta change from awesome to very good. His own critique is that he doesn't have deep speed and has to make a move to get open deep. That there is a limitation. 4.6 speed is not oh wow, cmon. 4.56 at his pro day, shaving 4 hundredths....speed is not this guy's thing.
I think he is the smartest WR prospect I've ever read about. I have never read of a guy understanding symbiotic relationships and blocking techniques and...the guy is OMG football smart.
Rishard Matthews versus Mike Vrabel was absurd. The Titans lost a WR that had been top ten in the NFL on third down for three years running. He wasn't fast. He wasn't big. He wasn't...but the guy was nails on third down. Losing Delanie left Marcus without his two best targets.
It does back to why were Mason and Matthews productive? Why were they the best on those teams? They were very much comfy with themselves and what they can and can't do- so savvy. This rookie has to, must, absolutely must keep his confidence high and be confident in himself.
Put him in the slot! The middle is Delanie's turf. Unless someone can stay out of his way (like quality offenses can do) then they'll just put Delanie, himself, in the slot. They also signed Humphries, one of the best slot WRs last year.
Taywan is quicker and faster. Sharpe led the NCAA in catches and has as good hands if not better. Davis is a better athlete. Humphries has more experience and know how to get the job done. Their UDFA signing Ratliff Williams is an OMG blocker, kick returner that will probably outhustle Brown. Darius Jennings has played WR, RB, CB, and S in the NFL and is more useful. Roger Lewis (former Giant) has little athleticism and 100% heart and may find a home too. No-name Batson was holy cow quick last year.
Did I mention the Titans are loaded in the secondary for him to face every practice?
Brown is supposed to be the total package. He's gotta be OK with these guys being faster, bigger, quicker, more hustle etc. I have watched a zillion WRs lose their confidence with the Titans so I'm concerned but if this kid can keep his chin up, he could beat out all of them. Coming from a program where he wasn't the best athlete at WR is great. He's used to it. He's probably the man for the job. You FF guys gotta be patient though.
What he has that Mason and Matthews didn't have is breakaway ability. That will raise his ceiling for FF, but that's not gonna be evident in most practices since contact is limited.
Did you forget about Henry?
One of the grrr things about the Titans whether it's been Murray or Henry has been running on first and second and forcing Mariota and the WRs to make a big play over n over. Watching, you swear they're rarely in 3rd and short. Hey rook, all we're asking you to do is make a big play, sit a few, then make another big play. Regular ordinary plays? pssshhh we don't do that here.
I get that this guy is the cream that will rise to the top. Y'all gotta let that happen and give it time. Watch his confidence in quotes and demeanor and as long as he's the same, he'll get there. Just be patient. Give the cream time to rise
He is definitely not 1.1 in dynasty. That's not even logical.
If you go back to DGB, Hunter, and Wright- the Titans have had talented WRs that are extremely underproductive for a long long time. Whether it's Derrick Mason or Rishard Matthews, the smart WR that comes thru time and again has always had value. The other WRs have been oh so questionable regardless of the entire staff changing so many times.
Brown is not as awesome/phenomenal as some earlier in this thread. I mean cmon, if he were that good, he wouldn't have been the 19th pick in the second round. Some are a bit much here. It's gotta change from awesome to very good. His own critique is that he doesn't have deep speed and has to make a move to get open deep. That there is a limitation. 4.6 speed is not oh wow, cmon. 4.56 at his pro day, shaving 4 hundredths....speed is not this guy's thing.
I think he is the smartest WR prospect I've ever read about. I have never read of a guy understanding symbiotic relationships and blocking techniques and...the guy is OMG football smart.
Rishard Matthews versus Mike Vrabel was absurd. The Titans lost a WR that had been top ten in the NFL on third down for three years running. He wasn't fast. He wasn't big. He wasn't...but the guy was nails on third down. Losing Delanie left Marcus without his two best targets.
It does back to why were Mason and Matthews productive? Why were they the best on those teams? They were very much comfy with themselves and what they can and can't do- so savvy. This rookie has to, must, absolutely must keep his confidence high and be confident in himself.
Put him in the slot! The middle is Delanie's turf. Unless someone can stay out of his way (like quality offenses can do) then they'll just put Delanie, himself, in the slot. They also signed Humphries, one of the best slot WRs last year.
Taywan is quicker and faster. Sharpe led the NCAA in catches and has as good hands if not better. Davis is a better athlete. Humphries has more experience and know how to get the job done. Their UDFA signing Ratliff Williams is an OMG blocker, kick returner that will probably outhustle Brown. Darius Jennings has played WR, RB, CB, and S in the NFL and is more useful. Roger Lewis (former Giant) has little athleticism and 100% heart and may find a home too. No-name Batson was holy cow quick last year.
Did I mention the Titans are loaded in the secondary for him to face every practice?
Brown is supposed to be the total package. He's gotta be OK with these guys being faster, bigger, quicker, more hustle etc. I have watched a zillion WRs lose their confidence with the Titans so I'm concerned but if this kid can keep his chin up, he could beat out all of them. Coming from a program where he wasn't the best athlete at WR is great. He's used to it. He's probably the man for the job. You FF guys gotta be patient though.
What he has that Mason and Matthews didn't have is breakaway ability. That will raise his ceiling for FF, but that's not gonna be evident in most practices since contact is limited.
Did you forget about Henry?
One of the grrr things about the Titans whether it's been Murray or Henry has been running on first and second and forcing Mariota and the WRs to make a big play over n over. Watching, you swear they're rarely in 3rd and short. Hey rook, all we're asking you to do is make a big play, sit a few, then make another big play. Regular ordinary plays? pssshhh we don't do that here.
I get that this guy is the cream that will rise to the top. Y'all gotta let that happen and give it time. Watch his confidence in quotes and demeanor and as long as he's the same, he'll get there. Just be patient. Give the cream time to rise
He is definitely not 1.1 in dynasty. That's not even logical.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Causation vs. correlation though, probably. I would imagine most of those were a result of an elite QB and passing offense that naturally supports several top fantasy options than any hubbub about coverages rolling one way or another.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'd like to find it again, because although there may have been more to the explanation (there usually is), as I remember the info (could be clouded), it was a shockingly high proportion of the time that a WR1 finish was accompanied by another WR1/2 finish by their teammate that same season. It certainly spoke to the notion that the best QBs/offenses were correlated with this, but I think the takeaway is that sometimes we mark people off our lists, or much lower, because we think they are blocked for targets and production by their more productive WR1 teammate. I'm not saying Davis/Brown are going to finish as WR1s or 2s even, just that I think as much as this landing spot sucks, it probably makes the offense better, and certainly the WR corps. I don't think they will ever be passing often enough to finish as high as I'm talking about, though. I gotta try to find that article by Waldman, it's a couple years old and would be interesting to update.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I wouldn't draft him because he's going too high. After he falls (mid summer) maybe then. I mean there are rookies that are certainly gonna start and/or gets lots of work. You gotta wait on this guy to beat others out. An end of the summer draft, it'll probably be more obvious then and I might change. In round one of dynasty, you want crystal clear opportunity and that isn't here
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I think AJ Brown's ADP is going to be lower in actual drafts than he's listed on most people's rankings.
Everyone loves to show off how they believe in talent over situation in rankings. But when push comes to shove and they start having to make choices for their actual team they tend to go after the guy paired with a good QB who can help them sooner rather than later.
I am as guilty of it as anyone. I have Brown tied with Harry as my favorite WR talents in this draft, but no way I could make myself actually pull the trigger at 1.03. If he falls to the late 1st though I will likely be looking to move in there to grab him.
Everyone loves to show off how they believe in talent over situation in rankings. But when push comes to shove and they start having to make choices for their actual team they tend to go after the guy paired with a good QB who can help them sooner rather than later.
I am as guilty of it as anyone. I have Brown tied with Harry as my favorite WR talents in this draft, but no way I could make myself actually pull the trigger at 1.03. If he falls to the late 1st though I will likely be looking to move in there to grab him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Wow - I get accounting for situation, but situations change quickly. That’s a drastic drop.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I agree. I've adjusted. Hes wr5-6 for me now. I drop him more than most because I already own Corey Davis. I dont want to draft both TEN WR. I'd rather diversify than count on MM getting it together or TEN hitting the jackpot in 2020
I can see him still being wr3 or 4 for some people, but I wont be drafting him unless he falls to round 2 or even late 1
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Except when they don't.
Not trying to single you out here. I've read this phrase 100 times in the last week. There is absolutely truth to it. I just don't like betting on it happening when I'm making my picks. Everybody seems convinced Mariota is out of there. Even if right what happens next? A better QB? Long bet. Better (for fantasy) coach and/or playcaller soon? Long bet.
Even when things do change quickly, and they freaking simply don't always change at all, how can we know it will change for the better? Unless the talent is truly transcendent, I prefer situation as I consider most talent comparisons to be pretty even. In April anyway.
Raptors409
Footballguy
1.) Inconsistent Quarterback.
2.) Inconsistent Runningback
Pass. I like the talent overall, but I thought Tennessee was supposed to become this smashmouth team running the ball with Derrick Henry? Call me a square, but I like Humphries who can be had for a bag of footballs. I think Brown can be stopped by single coverage by most respectable corners. If you were scheming against Tennessee, who are you putting your #1 corner on?
2.) Inconsistent Runningback
Pass. I like the talent overall, but I thought Tennessee was supposed to become this smashmouth team running the ball with Derrick Henry? Call me a square, but I like Humphries who can be had for a bag of footballs. I think Brown can be stopped by single coverage by most respectable corners. If you were scheming against Tennessee, who are you putting your #1 corner on?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Sentenced to FF purgatory. Davis, Humphries, and himself will gnaw at each others targets rendering themselves useless. Good news is you will be able to get him cheap in a year or two if you like him and have hopes that the scenery changes.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t think Mariotta is bad for him to be honest. Guys like Richard Matthews were fine with him and Brown is a much better version of him. I think people blame Mariotta for Davis but maybe Davis just sucks.
Zyphros
Footballguy
You're probably not wrong. He'll still be a top5 player on my board, but I expect him to go in the late 1st the majority of the time. I was right there with you except I had Brown ahead of Harry and my 1.01 overall before his landing spot sent him to purgatory.
EBF
Footballguy
The flipside of the situation thing is scrubs like Bishop Sankey who are drafted into a good spot and failed because they weren't good enough. Roughly 65% of 2nd-3rd round NFL draft picks will bust, so I try to focus more on finding the guys who can play than finding the guys who fell into a good spot, especially at WR. Any RB with 250+ carries is going to have FF value by virtue of volume alone, but if you stick a scrub WR like Aaron Dobson with Tom Brady it doesn't matter because he's still Aaron Dobson.
Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
I would take Campbell over Brown all day. Higher floor and ceiling.
Hardman has a higher ceiling but lower floor.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
True of course. There are plenty of examples of hits and misses on both sides.
One of the things with Brown, even though I'd like to say I still prefer him, is that this isn't an obvious major gap in talent vs. situation type deal. Most of the guys he's likely to fall behind in rookie drafts, with the exception of maybe David Montgomery, were drafted within 10-15 picks of him if not ahead of him.
EBF
Footballguy
Not from an objective odds standpoint, but two players being drafted in the same vicinity doesn't automatically mean the talent level is comparable.
Part of the challenge of evaluating rookies is figuring out what their "real" talent level is independent of their draft slot. I always use draft slot as the starting point, but from there if I look at the highlights and have a significant positive or negative reaction then I might move a player up or down.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Certainly possible. I'm an Oregon homer so I love Mariota, but he sure doesn't seem like he can ever stay healthy. I am actually kind of bullish on the Titans offense if they really do feed Henry, and if this receiver corps is suddenly that much better. I have liked everything I've ever seen from Davis. I think it's early still to decide on him. I think Brown is better, though, and will emerge as their WR1 sooner than later. Davis is probably the odd man out, but IDK. I am probably letting someone else draft Brown, even though I really do want to like him in this spot.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
As far as Mariotta not staying healthy - as much maligned as Ryan Tannehill has been he’s far better than Matt Cassell, Blaine Gabbert and the other losers they’ve had backing him up.
I wasn’t high on Davis as a prospect so him being a “bust” thus far hasn’t surprised me. I agree though that it’s too early to really call him a bust though.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Somebody asked earlier which receiver teams will rotate coverage to, or put their best corner on? I suppose we will simply have to wait to see if either Davis or Brown emerge as being particularly better than the other, but the very fact that we would be asking that question *could* imply they will complement each other quite well. Will they pass enough to both be useful for fantasy? Pffffft I guess most of us think not. I want to believe. They'll have to pass a lot to keep pace with Indy and Houston. I think I like the Jags offense a lot better, but they're still defense and Fournette centric. I had Brown as the #1 WR on talent. This one is hard for me.
Elevencents
Footballguy
Being completely objective I can’t see how anyone can possibly be excited for a WR in Tennessee. I don’t care how good he is or how much better Mariota is supposed to be this year (which I doubt), any WR in TN is someone who may just happen to fall far enough for me to take but it’s more likely someone else will take him higher than he should go and I won’t bat an eye if that happens.
Faust
MVP
matuski
Footballguy
Has Mariota ever produced a 1000 yard receiver? At this point I might prefer gambling on a Raven WR.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Didnt target him but got him at 13th overall in a traditional td heavy non ppr 10 man keep 12 league.....figured why not
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Delanie Walker had 1,088 yards and 6 TDs in 2015
Has Mariota ever produced a 1000 yard receiver? At this point I might prefer gambling on a Raven WR.
Rishard Matthews has 945 yards and 9 TDs in 2016
Mariotta isn’t great and he’s been banged up throughout his career but Brown is a better fit for his skill set than most of the receivers the Titans have had.
matuski
Footballguy
Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
I don't follow the Titans very closely and I'm definitely not that talented on the scouting side so I'm genuinely curious to learn more about this.
What, do you feel, makes AJ Brown a better fit to Marriota's game than other WRs they have had in the past/currently?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He's a precise route runner that gets open mostly in the short to intermediate area - and gains yards after the catch. He's a much better version of Rishard Matthews who has been the most successful receiver with Mariotta.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
That’s a great point. Anyone remember how long we waited for DeAngelo and Stewart to be on different teams? Took a lot longer than we all though and hoped!
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Well here's another thought: Tannehill is the back up, the one who provided for Jarvis Landry getting better stats than he should have. Tannehill isn't far from playing time if Mariota is as bad as everybody says.
He's not. He just has to stay on the field. That said, this is certainly a make/break year for him if he can't do that.
jm192
Footballguy
I loved Brown before the draft. I had Brown and Harry as the tier 1 guys of the WR's in my mind. As a Titans fan, I love that we drafted Brown. I think he can be a good player for us.
Fantasy wise--I'm starting to doubt him.
Metcalf in Seattle seems better, even though Brown went higher and I think Brown's a better player.
Campbell in Indy seems like the same thing--less talented guy, way better situation.
Deebo actually went higher, and has a better offense.
Struggling with Brown's place in this group.
Fantasy wise--I'm starting to doubt him.
Metcalf in Seattle seems better, even though Brown went higher and I think Brown's a better player.
Campbell in Indy seems like the same thing--less talented guy, way better situation.
Deebo actually went higher, and has a better offense.
Struggling with Brown's place in this group.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I keep trying to tell this to myself but I just won't listen to me. I agree with all of this right up until I realize that Mariotta is the QB, and he's the exact kind of QB you don't want the kind of coach Vrabel looks to be have. He's good enough, he doesn't make mistakes, and he's someone you can win playing Billy Ball with. And that means 490 passes a year while the offense focuses on moving the chains, the running and kicking games winning, and playing enough D to let those unit win. I have him as my #2 WR on talent alone but just passed him at 1.08 and am not even considering him with 1.09 which I am on deck with.
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Hankmoody
Footballguy
I suppose that's probably a key difference for me. I'd much rather grab Damien Harris and then when Sony fumbles and Harris gets 20/131/2 flip him for AJ Brown plus. I don't spend early picks on WR that need time in the oven, that time is too precious in the format I play in (limited taxi spots/term, contracts that tick away). If I take a WR at all, it's a TNT type - one that's likely to drastically outshow his ADP at some point, even if it's potentially temporary.
I also don't agree Mariotta's days are numbered. They made the playoffs last year and Vrabel doesn't look like a bad coach - just a coach that's bad for FF. If this offense grinds out first downs, doesn't turn the ball over, and makes the playoffs those two could be here another 4-5 years.
steelers1080
Footballguy
AJ Brown was my #1 WR after watching tape on this class, didn't like to see the landing spot, like almost everyone else. His situation could turn around in the future, but it seems like the smarter play to take someone else, then trade them for AJ Brown plus, at a future time. I'd still take him in the end of the 1st, around pick 10-12, but it would be with the assumption that he'll be of 0 value this year, and possibly next year too.
Corey Davis has flashed in games when there was a game script that went his way, and Mariota was healthy, and Mariota was accurate, but that doesn't come together very often. I think that if AJ Brown or Corey Davis were on a different team, they could easily be WR1's in fantasy. Landing spot is huge.
Corey Davis has flashed in games when there was a game script that went his way, and Mariota was healthy, and Mariota was accurate, but that doesn't come together very often. I think that if AJ Brown or Corey Davis were on a different team, they could easily be WR1's in fantasy. Landing spot is huge.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Tennesse did not make the playoffs last year...they made it the season before and vrabel was not coach
matuski
Footballguy
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