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WR A.J. Brown, PHI (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter Interseptopus
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
Naw, travdogg, I saw the hit in real time. He crumpled up top and got hit there. It's for sure an upper body injury, vague though they may be about it.
I'm not saying the chest injury isn't real. I'm just saying that I think its the combination of several injuries and not just the chest that has him on IR. If it was just the chest, I think he'd be kept off IR, and just taken week to week.
rockaction
Footballguy
It looked to me like the hit got either his clavicle or AC joint, which could mean weeks. Either way, he's there, and it's not going away. He wasn't that great this year up until the injury. Waste of a redraft pick, concerning for dynasty GMs.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Wish I could move him in dynasty but what would you get? The bad numbers don't worry me too much but the injuries and consistent knee problems are pretty scary. Hopefully he comes back strong next year and I'm smart enough to move him if his value goes back up.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I offered TB WR Evans for him to a competitive team (I am rebuilding)
comedy is I traded him AJ for Chubb & Dam Harris preseason
Chaka
Footballguy
Eligible to return week 15, no? He has to miss three weeks and, IIRC this week counts.
dkp993
Footballguy
21 day window which makes him eligible week 15... the beginning of playoffs. No way I'm cutting him.
From what I understand it's not the numbers of games, but the number of days? If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know at this point. I gave up Godwin and Ruggs for him, and I'm not sure that was a good move even with Ruggs's subsequent tragedy. I'd take Godwin back for him at this point, really.
espn says 3 games. Per this article, his first game back is sf. Can you trust him his first game back? History says no and that he may have limited snap count. So that only leaves week 17. May be better to build depth because you may have other injuries during playoffs. Especially if your playoff rosters lock soon.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32727901/tennessee-titans-place-wide-receiver-aj-brown-injured-reserve
My league has a couple of IR spots so that definitely helps.
I would throw him out there first game back as long as he was practicing without limitation leading up to the game. He has two games where he's come back from not playing the prior game (career) and is 50-50 on performance. One down week, one blow up week.
dkp993
Footballguy
Not a chance I would. Still a big believer, this year was just a bad luck year. AJB’s upside is as high as almost anyone in the league. I traded him away 2 weeks ago in my main league that functions as a hybrid keeper/dynasty league for Najee and Keenan but I’m making a run at the title. Other then that there’s zero chance I’m losing out on the upside for pennies on the dollar.
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Week 13 doesn't count. You miss 3 games on IR, not 3 weeks. So week 12, week 14, and week 15. Plus week 16 is a Thursday game, that we may not have much in the way of information to go on, and its against SF.
Personally, I'm not viewing AJ Brown as a top-40 WR for the rest of the season. I think in many leagues, he's cuttable.
I am sure the guy in my redraft will not cut him, at least not until he cuts Robert Woods.
Chaka
Footballguy
I didn't even say this, but challenge accepted. Do you want just WR's coming back after missing, for example, 3 to 6 games? Please provide parameters for me, thanx.
It seems intuitive to say that a WR coming off of several weeks off due to injury isn't a good play ... But I don't know any historic stats about such cases. I think that's kind of what Chaka is getting at. No, I wouldn't feel super confident starting even AJ Brown the first week that he comes back, but do we have the numbers to back up that rationale?
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This is what I am willing to research, but I want some guidelines to follow. Should I look for only WR's who have missed 3 or more games, and look specifically at the first game back? For example, I saw that AJ Green's first game back in 2014 after missing 3 games, he went 3 for 44 with a TD. For him back then, 3 for 44 was bad, but the TD saved his fantasy week. He played only 38 snaps (56%), which was way under his game average of around 85-90%. Something like this?
Chaka
Footballguy
It's gonna take some time, but I am gonna create a new thread about it. I am curious as to the results. I am gonna limit my search to only current WR's, but should have plenty enough data to form some sort of opinion. FWIW, I am done with AJ Green's career, and he was a SIT coming back from injury, except when he had all offseason to recover.
My bad, I thought your prior post was just making a point, and that the question about parameters was more rhetorical. I completely misread the tone, but I get it now.
I haven't dug into it and I think my comment may have been misinterpreted to be based off some sort of historical analysis of WRs in similar situations. However, I was just looking at what happened this year when he came back in week 6 after injury.
Week 1 81% snaps 4/49/1
Week 2 84% snaps 3/43
Week 5 64% snaps 3/38
It was against Jacksonville so since he was coming back you expected a big game but TN limited him and he wanted to play more. This hurts your confidence in a week where you need confidence to start someone.
TN could limit him again as they know he is fragile and coming back from injury. I do feel like this happens to several players coming back from injury so it's definitely something to consider but I have no hard data. Obviously if you have scrubs for WRs you have no choice but if you're trying to look for someone who may emerge during playoffs then I think I'd feel more confident in someone like Elijah Moore if he keeps up the streak versus relying on AJ Brown cold turkey.
I'd just personally rather see how he does his first game back than chance it during playoffs. Plus its not a given you'd make it that far so I'd rather have someone who helps me now rather than game 17.
Disclaimer: In my particular circumstances, I had him in a guillotine league and dropped him for Jeudy. Have way more talent on waivers/FA than most and already had 4 starting WRs ahead of him. Plus the threat of being eliminated each week... I do think it still warrants serious consideration in redraft where you have options, short bench, and no IR though.
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Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
I'm sure not giddy about the prospects of starting Brown first week back in the playoffs if I make it that far. Funny you should say Elijah Moore, because that's exactly who I've been playing in his spot. And it was an easy call this week, even when I thought Brown would come back and play. Love his talent, but man he sure is hard to trust this season.
Obviously, things change weekly and nothing is set in stone, but Brown is exactly the kind of guy who comes back on a limited snap count. He's been banged up with multiple injuries all year, and he was already on a snap count once when he came back against the Jags. I'm not cutting him, but I doubt I use him again this season unless my options are trash... in which case I'll likely have been eliminated anyway.
It's pretty easy to keep AJ Brown benched when your alternative is Elijah Moore, who happens to be WR4 for the last 5 weeks, but what if it was Chris Moore? Or Rondale Moore?
Houston turmOiler
Footballguy
You're right, that's where I'd have no choice. My next guy is Bateman, and right now I'd have to think about that one. I'd probably go with Brown for the potential upside, but I don't feel good about it at all. Pessimistic about my chances then.
well, you either hold off on trying to find another Elijah Moore for 4 more weeks or you drop aj brown as soon as you find someone who starts to emerge in the next 4 weeks. There’s bound to be another one to pop up in the next 4 weeks so Id rather take a chance on that then hold. It’s precisely because people hold onto guys rather than cut bait that they miss on guys like Moore due to roster spots.
fyi, not saying holding brown then was a mistake. But the general policy of holding injured guys for too long, hoping for a miracle turnaround.
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johnnyboy8102
Footballguy
If you already have the bye secured for week 15 and Brown is on waivers it is worth a bench stash to have him as an option for week 16.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Brown is not worth stashing for the playoffs, unless you are trying to self-sabotage your chances at winning.
johnnyboy8102
Footballguy
Has there been any update on Brown?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Week 16, next week and he's had a full month recovering, should explode out of the box if you can hang on to him.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
Rapoport: A.J. Brown likely to return on Thursday. I imagine we'll learn more by 4 p.m. today more of his status. I'm sensing he's playing.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Brown is not startable even if he plays
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Banger
Footballguy
When your other rostered receivers include C.Godwin, B.Cooks and S.Shepard he's very startable
GreenNGold
Footballguy
I guess it depends what is on the waiver wire then, I agree you can start him over Godwin. Still having shepard on your roster is all on you.
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Banger
Footballguy
exactly..I'm down Ridley, Toney, Elijah Moore, Godwin...I have St. Brown but with Goff out he probably isn't startable. I've been playing this game for over 25 years and can't remember a time that's even close to this chaos.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Still having Ridley on your roster is all on you. Should have gotten another WR by now.
Banger
Footballguy
that's a dumb thing to say. you have no ideas the rules, rosters, anything about my league. he's on an IR spot...I've gotten many wr's and they've gotten injured, gotten covid, etc.
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GreenNGold
Footballguy
well if he is on an IR spot it is pretty dumb to list him as one of your other options.
