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WR Allen Robinson, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Would Romo or Cutler fix this problem??? Don't the Jags have to fix Bortles? Wasn't he good last year? How can it all fall apart a year later?

 
need2know said:
He was never good.  King of garbage stats
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Wait. Which one was never good. Bortles, right?  I'm starting to doubt whether Robinson was any good...

okay realizing you mean Bortles. So will the Jags make him a backup if they can bring in a veteran? And does this solve the problem? If so Robinson could be a GREAT buy low

 
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Lots at play here. I think Bortles has 1 more year to fix his mechanics or he's gone. That could change if they fire Bradley in the off season and a new coach comes in. New coaches typically like to draft their own guy on poor teams when starting over. On paper this team has the talent to be a contender right now, especially in that division. Bringing in a Romo or Cutler would make sense if Bortles looks bad again next year.

I think this team is just dysfunctional right now. Maybe Allen Robinson isn't the guy he was last year, but he's certainly not the guy he is this year either. From what I've read effort is the problem this year, and that could be due to the circumstances of this team and QB.

 
Bortles is not good.  

He has a below average NFL arm, and it is clear as his passes lack zip.  Ball takes forever to get there, and a previously open WR is now covered.  I have no idea if ARob is also to blame, and if he isn't doing things he should be doing, but I know that Bortles sucks, and he is not throwing the ball like an NFL QB.  

Watch him.  Watch a Jags game.  It's easy to go the whole year without doing it, but Bortles is bad, and if he wasn't a top 5 pick, there would be no discussion about whether or not he should start next year.  

 
FGITLOTR said:
How did he fare last time they met? 
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9-107 1TD at home 

Problem is that was an eternity ago. I'm sitting him for Inman. I would have sat him the last couple weeks but I clinched the 1 seed early. That was his last good game. 3 receptions for 31 yards is his high in both categories with 1TD in the last 4 weeks. He's been terrible lately and I'd rather take a chance with a guy whose worst game the last 5 weeks is just a shade under (9.3) Robinson's best game (10.8, 6.1 is next best) the past four weeks. 

 
stbugs said:
9-107 1TD at home 

Problem is that was an eternity ago. I'm sitting him for Inman. I would have sat him the last couple weeks but I clinched the 1 seed early. That was his last good game. 3 receptions for 31 yards is his high in both categories with 1TD in the last 4 weeks. He's been terrible lately and I'd rather take a chance with a guy whose worst game the last 5 weeks is just a shade under (9.3) Robinson's best game (10.8, 6.1 is next best) the past four weeks. 
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That game started a trend of no.1 WRs torching Hou D.

He had a sit down with Bortles last week to sort things out and I wonder if they said: we have the broncos this week so let's focus on getting back on track vs a division rival who we have a decent game plan to build on from the last game

 
I'm starting him.  Have no other options and don't want to spend for some ww wr. Although that's basically what he has become.  Top 5 bust of the year

 
Sarlakticacid said:
That game started a trend of no.1 WRs torching Hou D.

He had a sit down with Bortles last week to sort things out and I wonder if they said: we have the broncos this week so let's focus on getting back on track vs a division rival who we have a decent game plan to build on from the last game
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Right, but Hilton, Nelson and the SD WRs have also all been playing way better than Robinson. Houston has had injuries so they aren't the same as earlier in the season.

I may waiver a bit but Inman's been so much better with such a higher floor and two SD WRs had 117 yards last time they played Oakland. Inman has taken over Benjamin's stats since he hurt his PCL.

I just look at 9-90 1TD for Robinson. Seems like a nice stat line until you find out that is his total for the last 4 weeks. The meeting didn't help last week. Maybe he gets a ton of targets but the risk of a 2-6 PPR floor scares me.

 
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stbugs said:
Sarlakticacid said:
That game started a trend of no.1 WRs torching Hou D.

He had a sit down with Bortles last week to sort things out and I wonder if they said: we have the broncos this week so let's focus on getting back on track vs a division rival who we have a decent game plan to build on from the last game
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Right, but Hilton, Nelson and the SD WRs have also all been playing way better than Robinson. Houston has had injuries so they aren't the same as earlier in the season.

I may waiver a bit but Inman's been so much better with such a higher floor and two SD WRs had 117 yards last time they played Oakland. Inman has taken over Benjamin's stats since he hurt his PCL.

I just look at 9-90 1TD for Robinson. Seems like a nice stat line until you find out that is his total for the last 4 weeks. The meeting didn't help last week. Maybe he gets a ton of targets but the risk of a 2-6 PPR floor scares me.
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Welp, I was right and I had him benched for Inman. No idea why Inman hit 5-68 in what seemed like the first half and stopped, but he still had 8.3 more than Robinson. 2 catches for 15 yards was exactly what I was worried about. I don't care what he did at home against Houston, he and Bortles are awful now and there is no chance I start him again. Luckily, I only got him in 1 of my leagues and Inman did enough to get me into the championship game in that league.

 
Gandalf said:
I think something is seriously wrong with Robinson. This is beyond Bortles at this point.
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I agree. IMO he is handling the poor play by Bortles and the rest of the team badly. That said, he's still young and there's still a load of talent there. He just needs to act more like a professional.

Hopefully he learns from this. Some credible veteran influence might really help him, but I don't see a lot of that in JAX right now. I'm sure not selling. 

 
Hu-Tang Clan said:
Maybe the change in coaching will turn things around for him going forward.
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Certainly can't hurt. Likely this was a random down season. Guys have them sometimes. I still think Robinson is a top-10 WR in dynasty, as is Hopkins who also had a disappointing season.

 
Worth noting that he would have had a long TD if not for having one of his arms held (set up a Bortles 1 yard plunge)

 
Maybe he'll get a new team in a couple years since they signed Hurns?

A ridiculously high percentage of passes his way have been deemed uncatchable, and he gets set up for huge hits all the time.  If the Jags can correct Bortles' throwing motion to what it was last year, maybe he could be a big bounce back candidate next year?

 
The issue is bortles for another season. Can you imagine what his value will be after 4-6 more games like this before Bortles is benched in 2017???

 
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steelers1080 said:
Maybe he'll get a new team in a couple years since they signed Hurns?

A ridiculously high percentage of passes his way have been deemed uncatchable, and he gets set up for huge hits all the time.  If the Jags can correct Bortles' throwing motion to what it was last year, maybe he could be a big bounce back candidate next year?
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Bortles has to go even if it's bringing in Vinny Testaverde.

 
Has anyone seen him traded in dynasty recently? If so, what is the going rate? If not, what would you sell him for or buy him for?

 
FF Ninja said:
Has anyone seen him traded in dynasty recently? If so, what is the going rate? If not, what would you sell him for or buy him for?
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In the league I own him in, I havent seen an offer at all, but I havent shopped him either. Not sure what it would take for me to move him right now since his value is pretty low compared to last year. I have Hopkins in that league too :( looks like Ill just hold both instead of selling low.

In another league where I dont own him, I may try and acquire him in the offseason, but I think the other owner feels about the same as I do and he isnt looking to necessarily dump him, I think he and Hopkins could be great buy low guys this year if you can find a frustrated owner looking to cut ties

 
Gandalf said:
I agree. I think he just quit on the season around week 4. I will never own him again.
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Robinson had a bad season but he was still WR 18 in week 11 in my league. He was 1 TD shy of being WR 12 at that point.

This team, along with Robinson, seemed to fall apart after the loss to Houston in week 10, which they were leading big in the 4th quarter. At that point Bradley wasn't going to make it out of the season. The whole teams play dropped off at that point but Bortles accuracy was a huge problem all year long.

I'm about ready to put an equal share of blame on Bradley, seeing how the week after he was released the Jags started moving Robinson around on the field & he has a great game. Bad season all around, bu I'm all over him fro next year.

 
mcd said:
Robinson had a bad season but he was still WR 18 in week 11 in my league. He was 1 TD shy of being WR 12 at that point.

This team, along with Robinson, seemed to fall apart after the loss to Houston in week 10, which they were leading big in the 4th quarter. At that point Bradley wasn't going to make it out of the season. The whole teams play dropped off at that point but Bortles accuracy was a huge problem all year long.

I'm about ready to put an equal share of blame on Bradley, seeing how the week after he was released the Jags started moving Robinson around on the field & he has a great game. Bad season all around, bu I'm all over him fro next year.
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When you say 'all over him' that means what exactly? Like you are planning on spending what type of pick or auction dollars on the guy?

 
I own Robinson in my 12 team dynasty league.  As of right now, he is WR 27 in my league (WR36 based on avg, a better measure, IMHO).  Hugely disappointing, but that's still ahead of guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Sterling Shepard, Kelvin Benjamin, Randall Cobb, Tyler Lockett, and many other young WR's with potential.  He's only 23 (24 next season) and already has a top 5 season under his belt.  I don't really see any scenario where I trade him because his value is so low right now I would never receive anyone with an equivalent potential to be a difference-maker.  We already know the potential is there, he's still super young, and he's still more of a sure thing for a top 5 season (having already done it) than any of the WR's just mentioned, many that are ahead of him this season, and any rookies coming in 2017.

I'd rather wait him out and see how things play out - particularly with a new coach and philosophy on the way.

If I didn't own him, I'd pay a late 1st or definitely a 2nd rookie pick for him.  But I wouldn't trade him for that - others might though.

 
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Gandalf said:
When you say 'all over him' that means what exactly? Like you are planning on spending what type of pick or auction dollars on the guy?
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I just think when you are posting that he quit on his team in week 4 & you will never own him again, it's a little overboard. If other owners feel that way then I will be buying him up like crazy. I'm not sure what you meant by "never own him again." If you were saying you expect him to go in the 2nd/3rd round so he won't be on your team, that is one thing. If you're saying you won't draft him in the 7th round because you think he quit on his team, that's a totally different stance.

If your stance is the latter, and other owners agree, I'm "all over him".

Before the season I had him as a top 5 dynasty WR. I still believe he should fall somewhere between 6 and 10. Rookie draft I would offer up 1.4 or later right now, maybe higher once NFL draft is held. I would be comfortable taking him in the mid/late 2nd round of a dynasty draft. If other owners dislike him as much as you, I'd be thrilled to get him in the 3rd or 4th. It's hard to say as far as auction $$$, each auction has a different flow, but in the range just after the elite WRs (OBJ, JJones, Brown, Evans & Green).

Robinson checks off all the boxes, he will continually get 150+ targets each year, TDs are huge for WRs and Robinson is used heavily both in the red zone & at the goal line. I believe with an offensive minded coach, Bortles could be salvaged & the passing game could come back around. If that happens Robinson is right back in the top 5 dynasty WR talk.

 
J3RS3YD3V1L said:
I own Robinson in my 12 team dynasty league.  As of right now, he is WR 27 in my league (WR36 based on avg, a better measure, IMHO).  Hugely disappointing, but that's still ahead of guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Sterling Shepard, Kelvin Benjamin, Randall Cobb, Tyler Lockett, and many other young WR's with potential.  He's only 23 (24 next season) and already has a top 5 season under his belt.  I don't really see any scenario where I trade him because his value is so low right now I would never receive anyone with an equivalent potential to be a difference-maker.  We already know the potential is there, he's still super young, and he's still more of a sure thing for a top 5 season (having already done it) than any of the WR's just mentioned, many that are ahead of him this season, and any rookies coming in 2017.

I'd rather wait him out and see how things play out - particularly with a new coach and philosophy on the way.

If I didn't own him, I'd pay a late 1st or definitely a 2nd rookie pick for him.  But I wouldn't trade him for that - others might though.
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Agreed with the bolded. And yeah, he did outscore those other guys, but if Shepard got 138 targets, I like his chances of scoring more FF points.

What is the minimum rookie pick that would at least make you think really hard about parting with him?

 
FF Ninja said:
Agreed with the bolded. And yeah, he did outscore those other guys, but if Shepard got 138 targets, I like his chances of scoring more FF points.

What is the minimum rookie pick that would at least make you think really hard about parting with him?
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I'm of the belief that his catch % this year and earlier in his career are representative of a floor, so while I understand what you're saying about Shepard, I think Robinson can only go up from here.

Minimum rookie pick to think about parting with him?  That's complicated by two things:

  • Our salary cap (I have him at $11 next year - on a roster of 35 with a cap of $325) whereas a 1st round pick has a salary of $5 right out of the gate.  So pretty good value.
  • My current team make up - I'm reasonably strong at WR (Julio, Dez, Watkins), so could afford to weather a scenario where he completely busts
Having said that, I think I'd think pretty hard about a pick in the top 6.  But I don't think I'll receive an offer in that ballpark.

 
J3RS3YD3V1L said:
I'm of the belief that his catch % this year and earlier in his career are representative of a floor, so while I understand what you're saying about Shepard, I think Robinson can only go up from here.

Minimum rookie pick to think about parting with him?  That's complicated by two things:

  • Our salary cap (I have him at $11 next year - on a roster of 35 with a cap of $325) whereas a 1st round pick has a salary of $5 right out of the gate.  So pretty good value.
  • My current team make up - I'm reasonably strong at WR (Julio, Dez, Watkins), so could afford to weather a scenario where he completely busts
Having said that, I think I'd think pretty hard about a pick in the top 6.  But I don't think I'll receive an offer in that ballpark.
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Ah, yeah, your settings a pretty atypical, but I appreciate the reply all the same. If I had 1.05 or 1.06, I really think I'd make an offer for Robinson. I agree that Robinson's catch rate can't really go down.

 
FF Ninja said:
Ah, yeah, your settings a pretty atypical, but I appreciate the reply all the same. If I had 1.05 or 1.06, I really think I'd make an offer for Robinson. I agree that Robinson's catch rate can't really go down.
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After thinking about it, I I'd rather have Robinson than 1.5 or 1.6 so you and I are in agreement there as far as his value.

 
Soulfly3 said:
Buy low of the year right here, folks. 

His talent is undeniable.
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His talent may be undeniable but man did he suck ### this year.

It's also this sentiment that will drive his value up to the point where he is unlikely to be a buy low next August.

 
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Soulfly3 said:
Buy low of the year right here, folks. 

His talent is undeniable.
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As undeniable as Braylon Edwards'?  There are a lot of similarities there.

No one that has a season that bad while being completely healthy has "undeniable" talent.  He may or may not be as good as we all thought.  The jury is still out.  He's not the first WR to play with a bad QB and that bad QB still threw for 4000 yards and 23 TDs so there were numbers to go around.  He wouldn't be the first WR to look like the next big thing and then fizzle out.  More on the subject of firsts, I don't think there has ever been a top 10 dynasty WR/RB that had a completely healthy season where they were this bad that ever returned to having top 10 dynasty value.  So he would be the first.  Ever.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
As undeniable as Braylon Edwards'?  There are a lot of similarities there.

No one that has a season that bad while being completely healthy has "undeniable" talent.  He may or may not be as good as we all thought.  The jury is still out.  He's not the first WR to play with a bad QB and that bad QB still threw for 4000 yards and 23 TDs so there were numbers to go around.  He wouldn't be the first WR to look like the next big thing and then fizzle out.  More on the subject of firsts, I don't think there has ever been a top 10 dynasty WR/RB that had a completely healthy season where they were this bad that ever returned to having top 10 dynasty value.  So he would be the first.  Ever.
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Just looking up players that I remember, Fitzgerald went from a worse season than Robinson in 2014 to a top ten 2015. Hilton had a similar season to Robinson in 2015 to a top 10 2016. I don't think this is that uncommon and certainly not the first. Ever.

 
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