WR Cooper Kupp, SEA (2 Viewers)

[Da Franchise]

If he plays a full 17, I would consider 100/1400 to be his floor and project however many TDs you like. Double digits certainly a reasonable forecast but if you want to say 6 or 7, I won’t fight about it.

I see both sides of it though and certainly injuries could crop up to either he or Stafford that could significantly reduce those numbers. A higher injury risk than average to me, given both of their respective ages and history.

What I don’t see happening is another 350+ point season coming this year. Garbage time is nice and all but disaster teams typically don’t produce league winning fantasy stats, mainly because very bad teams don’t tend to score lots of points. And the Rams are going to be pretty bad.

To me he’s a fine 1st round target in redraft but not one I’m going to be overly psyched about walking away with. And considering how high I am on Garrett Wilson, I doubt I’ll have to worry about it because I’m going that direction instead.

I have enough scary feels about him that I probably won’t end up with him much in redraft, if at all. He might be a trade target during the season for a dynasty contender though if it’s a reasonable price.

 

[Mitchie]

I'm more worried about Stafford staying healthy than Kupp, Kupp bounced back from his ACL injury a few years ago, this injury was really not all that serious anyway, and I know he's older now but have faith in him to put in the work to get back to top shape. On one hand I find it pretty interesting that the Rams didn't bring in a decent backup which tells me Stafford is entering the season pretty healthy. On the other hand he's got a history and anytime I see him take a hit I'm going to wince and breathe a sigh of relief when he gets back up. And if he does go down it's Stetson Bennett time. I guess at that point the Rams figure they're toast anyway and they'll just tank.

 

[TheWinz]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

Again, his ADP even in start-up leagues is high enough to make me think people expect that of him.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

Again, his ADP even in start-up leagues is high enough to make me think people expect that of him.

If that’s what people expected from him he’d be the consensus no. 1 pick without hesitation. You’re really arguing against a position no one is taking.

He’s ranked as WR3/4 in most rankings which puts him in the mid to late first if you count on 2-4 RBs and Kelce going before him.

That’s where he should go really when you consider risk v. reward. If you want to say you’d pass on him there, that’s fine - but no one has him above Jefferson or Chase and I’ve see Hill, Adams or Diggs ahead of him in some rankings - so let’s start from that premise instead. The risks are already baked into his price or he’d be going No. 1 overall.

 

[-OZ-]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

Again, his ADP even in start-up leagues is high enough to make me think people expect that of him.

If that’s what people expected from him he’d be the consensus no. 1 pick without hesitation. You’re really arguing against a position no one is taking.

He’s ranked as WR3/4 in most rankings which puts him in the mid to late first if you count on 2-4 RBs and Kelce going before him.

That’s where he should go really when you consider risk v. reward. If you want to say you’d pass on him there, that’s fine - but no one has him above Jefferson or Chase and I’ve see Hill, Adams or Diggs ahead of him in some rankings - so let’s start from that premise instead. The risks are already baked into his price or he’d be going No. 1 overall.

You think a 30yo would be the top pick even if the consensus was that his 2023 would be close to his 2021? WR don’t fall off as bad as RB but that still seems way too high. I have him in a SF and would trade him readily if I got close to that value. I don’t think he should be a first in dynasty (regular or SF) but in redraft, absolutely.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

Again, his ADP even in start-up leagues is high enough to make me think people expect that of him.

If that’s what people expected from him he’d be the consensus no. 1 pick without hesitation. You’re really arguing against a position no one is taking.

He’s ranked as WR3/4 in most rankings which puts him in the mid to late first if you count on 2-4 RBs and Kelce going before him.

That’s where he should go really when you consider risk v. reward. If you want to say you’d pass on him there, that’s fine - but no one has him above Jefferson or Chase and I’ve see Hill, Adams or Diggs ahead of him in some rankings - so let’s start from that premise instead. The risks are already baked into his price or he’d be going No. 1 overall.

You think a 30yo would be the top pick even if the consensus was that his 2023 would be close to his 2021? WR don’t fall off as bad as RB but that still seems way too high. I have him in a SF and would trade him readily if I got close to that value. I don’t think he should be a first in dynasty (regular or SF) but in redraft, absolutely.

I’m 100% talking redraft here - which is where the conversation was at. His age is surely a detriment to his value in dynasty.

 

[Ilov80s]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

Again, his ADP even in start-up leagues is high enough to make me think people expect that of him.

If that’s what people expected from him he’d be the consensus no. 1 pick without hesitation. You’re really arguing against a position no one is taking.

He’s ranked as WR3/4 in most rankings which puts him in the mid to late first if you count on 2-4 RBs and Kelce going before him.

That’s where he should go really when you consider risk v. reward. If you want to say you’d pass on him there, that’s fine - but no one has him above Jefferson or Chase and I’ve see Hill, Adams or Diggs ahead of him in some rankings - so let’s start from that premise instead. The risks are already baked into his price or he’d be going No. 1 overall.

You think a 30yo would be the top pick even if the consensus was that his 2023 would be close to his 2021? WR don’t fall off as bad as RB but that still seems way too high. I have him in a SF and would trade him readily if I got close to that value. I don’t think he should be a first in dynasty (regular or SF) but in redraft, absolutely.

I was taking strictly redraft for this convo but yeah if everyone basically said the expectation is one of the best seasons in NFL history again, he would and should go 1.01. His last 1.5 seasons have been insane.

 

[-OZ-]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

Again, his ADP even in start-up leagues is high enough to make me think people expect that of him.

If that’s what people expected from him he’d be the consensus no. 1 pick without hesitation. You’re really arguing against a position no one is taking.

He’s ranked as WR3/4 in most rankings which puts him in the mid to late first if you count on 2-4 RBs and Kelce going before him.

That’s where he should go really when you consider risk v. reward. If you want to say you’d pass on him there, that’s fine - but no one has him above Jefferson or Chase and I’ve see Hill, Adams or Diggs ahead of him in some rankings - so let’s start from that premise instead. The risks are already baked into his price or he’d be going No. 1 overall.

You think a 30yo would be the top pick even if the consensus was that his 2023 would be close to his 2021? WR don’t fall off as bad as RB but that still seems way too high. I have him in a SF and would trade him readily if I got close to that value. I don’t think he should be a first in dynasty (regular or SF) but in redraft, absolutely.

I’m 100% talking redraft here - which is where the conversation was at. His age is surely a detriment to his value in dynasty.

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

One person threw that in there to try and make a point - but the discussion is about redraft. There's no way I would say Kupp would have any chance at No. 1 overall in dynasty - and no one was arguing that at all.

 

[-OZ-]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

One person threw that in there to try and make a point - but the discussion is about redraft. There's no way I would say Kupp would have any chance at No. 1 overall in dynasty - and no one was arguing that at all.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Haha

I was mostly joking - the “on pace” arguments are a bit of a fallacy is all.

Kupp is also 2 years older, coming off an injury & the Rams aren’t anywhere near as good as that team.

It’s possible he returns to WR1 - not discounting that. But IMO that was his career year. A lot went right for him & the entire team for that to manifest.

I am just not ready to anoint him WR1 for 2023 until I see it, and I’m admittedly a bit skeptical.

Not much of a bold call, considering it was literally the best fantasy season EVER by a WR, hahaha

Again, his ADP even in start-up leagues is high enough to make me think people expect that of him.

If that’s what people expected from him he’d be the consensus no. 1 pick without hesitation. You’re really arguing against a position no one is taking.

He’s ranked as WR3/4 in most rankings which puts him in the mid to late first if you count on 2-4 RBs and Kelce going before him.

That’s where he should go really when you consider risk v. reward. If you want to say you’d pass on him there, that’s fine - but no one has him above Jefferson or Chase and I’ve see Hill, Adams or Diggs ahead of him in some rankings - so let’s start from that premise instead. The risks are already baked into his price or he’d be going No. 1 overall.

Top 5-6 seems awfully high. That’s the premise.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Top 5-6 seems awfully high. That’s the premise.

Not if you look what he's done the last two seasons (he'd be Top 1-3 if there was no risk) - but once again we'll agree to disagree there.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Top 5-6 seems awfully high. That’s the premise.

Not if you look what he's done the last two seasons (he'd be Top 1-3 if there was no risk) - but once again we'll agree to disagree there.

I get that. I also get that there are other, younger players with less risk on the board at that point, many on better teams.

Clearly the folks taking Kupp there have loftily expectations in order to justify the pick.

I’m just trying to get an idea of what those expectations are.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Top 5-6 seems awfully high. That’s the premise.

Not if you look what he's done the last two seasons (he'd be Top 1-3 if there was no risk) - but once again we'll agree to disagree there.

I get that. I also get that there are other, younger players with less risk on the board at that point, many on better teams.

Clearly the folks taking Kupp there have loftily expectations in order to justify the pick.

I’m just trying to get an idea of what those expectations are.

Mike Clay, who's pretty good with projections, has Kupp projected for 126-1,487-8. That's probably higher on receptions and yards than I would go but seems fairly reasonable - while there are risks of course, there's also factors (like an extremely poor Rams' defense and little competition for targets) that counter those age/injury risks.

I have pick 6 in my only re-draft. I'd probably prefer to go RB there, but Kupp is surely on my radar.

 

[-OZ-]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

That would suffice I think. Personally I wouldn’t take him in the first but could very well see him anywhere from WR 3-12. All in that group have questions.
Fwiw, in dynasty I have him, Wilson and metcalf. I see them as basically in the same tier this year.

 

[MCFootball123]

The injury risk worth worrying about is more Stafford to me than Kupp. Stafford is madly in love with Kupp and as long as he is upright there is no way I could imagine Kupp not catching 100+balls. If Stetson Mailman Bennet gets in there who the hell knows. The team sucks so that will depress yardage/td's for Kupp, but I like a 110/1350/8 year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The injury risk worth worrying about is more Stafford to me than Kupp

I actually agree with that. Age 30 & soft tissue injuries is a concern with Kupp, but Stafford could be the weak link. He’s not particularly mobile, and has a history of neck, back, & elbow injuries. The OL is pretty suspect and Stafford loved throwing picks last year.

Some might argue that a bad offense will result in more come from behind/garbage time action, but it can also be a detriment when drives can’t be sustained. It’s a mixed bag.

But any significant injury to Stafford & Kupp’s value could crater. While true for any QB/WR, Stafford seems to be getting more and more banged up.

 

[Ilov80s]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

 

[Ilov80s]

I believe John Daigle (now at 4 for 4) has Kupp as the overall WR1 and I think 1.01 period for ppr.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

So why not draft Lamb, if the production is the same but risk of injury lower?

 

[Ilov80s]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

So why not draft Lamb, if the production is the same but risk of injury lower?

Because I’ve seen Cooper Kupp average about 8 more ppg than that for the last 30 games.

That output would be acceptable for the investment but obviously Kupp has much more potential than that. The arguments people had around why take CMC so high last year are very similar to the arguments about Kupp this year. Yeah there is age and injury risk but the ceiling is unreal.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

but risk of injury lower?

how exactly do we know that?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think people are forgetting last year's injury was a high ankle sprain, which is a an injury a player of any age can sustain. He literally just turned 30 about two weeks ago, so he's not really that old.

I don't see why he's any more of an injury risk than any other player. That just seems like a made up reason to discount him.

 

[efactor]

The injury risk worth worrying about is more Stafford to me than Kupp

I actually agree with that. Age 30 & soft tissue injuries is a concern with Kupp, but Stafford could be the weak link. He’s not particularly mobile, and has a history of neck, back, & elbow injuries. The OL is pretty suspect and Stafford loved throwing picks last year.

Some might argue that a bad offense will result in more come from behind/garbage time action, but it can also be a detriment when drives can’t be sustained. It’s a mixed bag.

But any significant injury to Stafford & Kupp’s value could crater. While true for any QB/WR, Stafford seems to be getting more and more banged up.

I'm not worried about injury with Kupp. He had the ACL in 2018 and then the ankle injury last year but those are fluke type injuries that can happen to anyone. In his other 4 seasons, he has missed 2 games total. Stafford worries me more. Early word is he is "100 percent" but that can change quickly with an older, statue type QB playing behind a less than stellar OL. Plus, last year McVay said Stafford had the same issues as 2021 and could work through them. Big, fat liar! You could tell in game one that he couldn't throw the ball downfield.

That said, the upside is sooooooooooo high with Kupp this year. Rams D is going to give up a lot of points and they will be throwing the ball a lot. Quite possibly 700 times plus. I would still take Jefferson and Chase before him, but that's it

 

[travdogg]

I think people are forgetting last year's injury was a high ankle sprain, which is a an injury a player of any age can sustain. He literally just turned 30 about two weeks ago, so he's not really that old.

I don't see why he's any more of an injury risk than any other player. That just seems like a made up reason to discount him.

Kupp's durability isn't a concern at all in my opinion, the same way CMC's shouldn't have been a year ago. If its not an Achilles, concussions, or neck/spine, its probably not a major concern.

I've got Kupp 5th overall in redraft. Could argue him over anyone other than Jefferson, but his offense pushes him below Chase/CMC/Ekeler for me. Would also argue Kelce over him in TE premium.

I'd be happy with Kupp in round 1.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

So why not draft Lamb, if the production is the same but risk of injury lower?

Because I’ve seen Cooper Kupp average about 8 more ppg than that for the last 30 games.

That output would be acceptable for the investment but obviously Kupp has much more potential than that. The arguments people had around why take CMC so high last year are very similar to the arguments about Kupp this year. Yeah there is age and injury risk but the ceiling is unreal.

So it seems we come full circle to the part where folks don’t see his career year as an anomaly.

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think people are forgetting last year's injury was a high ankle sprain, which is a an injury a player of any age can sustain. He literally just turned 30 about two weeks ago, so he's not really that old.

I don't see why he's any more of an injury risk than any other player. That just seems like a made up reason to discount him.

I don’t see it as the only reason.

I’m also not saying to not draft him.

Just trying to look at all the factors when considering whether to draft him at ADP.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I don’t see it as the only reason.

Why is it even a reason. Can you explain why Kupp is more likely to get hurt than any other WR? That's the point. We could place an "injury risk" tag on any player we want to discount rendering it meaningless, since every player may get injured.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t see it as the only reason.

Why is it even a reason. Can you explain why Kupp is more likely to get hurt than any other WR? That's the point. We could place an "injury risk" tag on any player we want to discount rendering it meaningless, since every player may get injured.

I’ve read that historically players become more risky for soft tissue injuries after their age 28 season. I’m not saying he’s “more likely than any other WR”. I’m saying he’s more likely than younger WRs.

That said, training is better these days, so it’s probably less of a factor than averaged out over the history of football. But still not a non-factor.

As others have said, I’m more concerned about Stafford’s ability to stay healthy & play at a high level. He looked rough last year, he’s a statue, and the OL has been brutal since Whitworth retired.

 

[travdogg]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

So why not draft Lamb, if the production is the same but risk of injury lower?

Because I’ve seen Cooper Kupp average about 8 more ppg than that for the last 30 games.

That output would be acceptable for the investment but obviously Kupp has much more potential than that. The arguments people had around why take CMC so high last year are very similar to the arguments about Kupp this year. Yeah there is age and injury risk but the ceiling is unreal.

So it seems we come full circle to the part where folks don’t see his career year as an anomaly.

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

He was the WR1 overall when he got hurt last year too. A full 1.1 PPG over Jefferson.

I can understand the concern about Stafford a little, I actually don't see the OL as a problem. If they are bad, that likely just means more short area catches, if they are good, it means more downfield plays/TDs.

2021 was a career year, it was one of the best WR seasons of all-time, but 80% of that would still be well worth a 1st round pick.

 

[Ilov80s]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

So why not draft Lamb, if the production is the same but risk of injury lower?

Because I’ve seen Cooper Kupp average about 8 more ppg than that for the last 30 games.

That output would be acceptable for the investment but obviously Kupp has much more potential than that. The arguments people had around why take CMC so high last year are very similar to the arguments about Kupp this year. Yeah there is age and injury risk but the ceiling is unreal.

So it seems we come full circle to the part where folks don’t see his career year as an anomaly.

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

Before the game he was hurt in, he was averaging more PPR PPG last season than he was in 2021.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

80% of that would still be well worth a 1st round pick.

This is the bottom line and there's really no good reason to think Kupp should have some precipitous drop-off - 20% would be pretty significant but it would still make him a top 5 WR. I get Stafford getting injured would be a blow, but how often do we really see QBs miss significant time barring fluke injuries?

 

[efactor]

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

So why not draft Lamb, if the production is the same but risk of injury lower?

Because I’ve seen Cooper Kupp average about 8 more ppg than that for the last 30 games.

That output would be acceptable for the investment but obviously Kupp has much more potential than that. The arguments people had around why take CMC so high last year are very similar to the arguments about Kupp this year. Yeah there is age and injury risk but the ceiling is unreal.

So it seems we come full circle to the part where folks don’t see his career year as an anomaly.

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

He was the WR1 overall when he got hurt last year too. A full 1.1 PPG over Jefferson.

I can understand the concern about Stafford a little, I actually don't see the OL as a problem. If they are bad, that likely just means more short area catches, if they are good, it means more downfield plays/TDs.

2021 was a career year, it was one of the best WR seasons of all-time, but 80% of that would still be well worth a 1st round pick.

An all time great year for sure. He was 100 points better than WR 2 in 2021 (Adams) in full PPR

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If they are bad, that likely just means more short area catches, if they are good, it means more downfield plays/TDs.

The concern is the hits to Stafford.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don’t mind any of the takes in here. Just seems like he’s a bit more risky for the price than some players at his ADP due to his age, history & QB situation. If others aren’t concerned about that, that’s ok too. Like I said, i’m Just looking at the big picture. I’m not sure I’d be comfortable spending a top 5 pick on him. To each their own.

CMC was mentioned, and IMO CMC is also very risky for the price, but that’s a discussion for another topic.

 

[Gally]

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

Why can't it be both? The upside is the ceiling of what he can do. He has shown he can put up one of the best seasons ever. isn't everyone's upside their career year? It kind of seems like it has to be both.

 

[MCFootball123]

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

Why can't it be both? The upside is the ceiling of what he can do. He has shown he can put up one of the best seasons ever. isn't everyone's upside their career year? It kind of seems like it has to be both.

Totally agree. My 105/1350/8 feels like a floor barring injury to QB. The ceiling is very real because we have already seen it. I also think it's important to remember he was literally WR1 LAST year before injury and Stafford was as bad as I've ever seen him all year. I don't believe McVay and never will, but if for some reason Stafford is "back" Kupp is worth ADP all day.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

Why can't it be both? The upside is the ceiling of what he can do. He has shown he can put up one of the best seasons ever. isn't everyone's upside their career year? It kind of seems like it has to be both.

Do the Rams have the team in place for him to achiever that?

Is Stafford healthy enough to facilitate it?

Is he physically the same in his age 30 season & analogous to his career year?

Father Time is undefeated. I feel like there’s enough risk here to at least discuss it.

I’m honestly not sure what I would do if I were on the clock and Kupp is BPA - I’m asking these questions to help myself understand how confident I should be in him.

 

[Ilov80s]

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

Why can't it be both? The upside is the ceiling of what he can do. He has shown he can put up one of the best seasons ever. isn't everyone's upside their career year? It kind of seems like it has to be both.

Do the Rams have the team in place for him to achiever that?

Is Stafford healthy enough to facilitate it?

Is he physically the same in his age 30 season & analogous to his career year?

Father Time is undefeated. I feel like there’s enough risk here to at least discuss it.

I’m honestly not sure what I would do if I were on the clock and Kupp is BPA - I’m asking these questions to help myself understand how confident I should be in him.

Right it’s just a matter of how you approach the draft and the first round. I do think Kupp has more risk than most of the other 1st round WRs but I also think he has more upside.

 

[-OZ-]

I think people are forgetting last year's injury was a high ankle sprain, which is a an injury a player of any age can sustain. He literally just turned 30 about two weeks ago, so he's not really that old.

I don't see why he's any more of an injury risk than any other player. That just seems like a made up reason to discount him.

Stafford is more likely to have injury issues and perform poorly than dak, cousins, burrow, Rodgers, etc.

“Start up” leagues was mentioned. I’ve never heard of redrafts referred to as start ups.

I mentioned that he was a 4th round pick in my recent start-up, but I was mostly talking redraft in here. He’s a mid 1st round pick, and taken as the WR 3-4-ish.

That’s significant capital - so again, I’ll ask the same Q: what would Kupp stans need as a return on that investment? 100/1400/10? Over/Under?

I assume that’s over a full 17 games. I would take it. It’s not setting the world on fire but is basically what Lamb did per game last year. Puts you at WR 6-8 range probably.

So why not draft Lamb, if the production is the same but risk of injury lower?

Because I’ve seen Cooper Kupp average about 8 more ppg than that for the last 30 games.

That output would be acceptable for the investment but obviously Kupp has much more potential than that. The arguments people had around why take CMC so high last year are very similar to the arguments about Kupp this year. Yeah there is age and injury risk but the ceiling is unreal.

So it seems we come full circle to the part where folks don’t see his career year as an anomaly.

Either he has that upside, or it was a career year. It can’t be both.

Of course it can be both. He has the upside of having another career year

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Stafford is more likely to have injury issues and perform poorly than dak, cousins, burrow, Rodgers, etc.

To that I say, “maybe”. I’m pretty sure Dak and Burrow have missed plenty of games - but sure if I had to rank them on likelihood I’d have Stafford first.

 

[Biabreakable]

@Hot Sauce Guy save some room for dinner!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

@Hot Sauce Guy save some room for dinner!

Not sure what this means.

I think he’s asking you out.

 

[Gally]

Do the Rams have the team in place for him to achiever that?

Is Stafford healthy enough to facilitate it?

Is he physically the same in his age 30 season & analogous to his career year?

Father Time is undefeated. I feel like there’s enough risk here to at least discuss it.

I’m honestly not sure what I would do if I were on the clock and Kupp is BPA - I’m asking these questions to help myself understand how confident I should be in him.

My comment was specifically in reference to you saying that upside and having a career year can't be one in the same. Whether he is likely to hit his upside (career year) or not is a different question and comes down to everything you list here. That's the crux of the evaluation and leads to where you would put him on your individual year. But I do believe that Kupp's upside is as the WR1

 

[Dr. Octopus]

But I do believe that Kupp's upside is as the WR1

That’s actually fact since we’ve seen it two years in a row. I think just statistics and regression tell us he’s likely to drop off from the last two seasons, but there’s still a lot of real estate between that upside and ending up as a Top 5 WR. His floor is pretty safe outside of injury (and with extra bump of risk for Stafford) but every player faces that.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Do the Rams have the team in place for him to achiever that?

Is Stafford healthy enough to facilitate it?

Is he physically the same in his age 30 season & analogous to his career year?

Father Time is undefeated. I feel like there’s enough risk here to at least discuss it.

I’m honestly not sure what I would do if I were on the clock and Kupp is BPA - I’m asking these questions to help myself understand how confident I should be in him.

My comment was specifically in reference to you saying that upside and having a career year can't be one in the same. Whether he is likely to hit his upside (career year) or not is a different question and comes down to everything you list here. That's the crux of the evaluation and leads to where you would put him on your individual year. But I do believe that Kupp's upside is as the WR1

That’s fair.

Some have said (yeah and I agree) that his career year was exactly that. Personally, I don’t see that upside and his age 30 season.

But if others do, then, absolutely, I agree he more than justifies, taking over other seeimingly less risky players.

 

[msudaisy26]

Other than Jefferson all these wide receivers in the first have question marks.

Chase - missed time last year, lots of other mouths to feed, very good defense.
Hill - Could be suspended, Tua might be the most injury prone QB in the league.
Diggs - might be going full AB, wasn't good last year after Allen hurt his shoulder
Brown - Lots of competition has knee issues.
Lamb - New OC
Wilson - New QB, lots of new weapons, maybe Oline issues.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Wilson - New QB

That’s a plus.