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WR DeAndre Hopkins, BAL (3 Viewers)

Bucky86 said:
People still don't think this guy is a legit top tier talent?
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Ridiculous isn't it? All he does is produce and smoke opposing defenses even though they KNOW the balls going to him. They can't stop him.

 
Bri said:
Adam Harstad said:
He had 800 receiving yards as a 21-year-old rookie, which is phenomenal.
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Really?

I don't track age so closely. It doesn't 'sound' phenomenal. Is it?
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A complete list of players to top 800 receiving yards at age 21:

Randy Moss (1313)

Mike Evans (1051)

Keenan Allen (1046)

Sammy Watkins (982)

Josh Gordon (805)

DeAndre Hopkins (802)

The four names rounding out the top ten are Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, and Jeremy Maclin. The list of players who were quality NFL receivers at 21 is very short and very impressive, in my opinion.

Keep in mind that players have only been able to turn pro before they graduated college for the last... what, 30 years or so? (Herschel went to the USFL because he couldn't go to the NFL after his Junior year.) And even when they *could* go pro at 21, actually pulling it off requires dominating Junior and Senior defensive backs as a true freshman and true sophomore to get enough quality tape out so teams will take a chance on drafting you high after your age-20 season. And even after all of that, you still need to deliver and actually produce as a rookie in the NFL against 26-30 year old veteran defensive backs.

It's a very tough feat to accomplish, historically. Amari Cooper is almost certainly going to add his name to that list this year, and I think it's important to recognize just how impressive that really is.

 
not sure there is any wr i'd rather have than hopkins. it's a very small list if there is one.

on pace for 138+/1900+.

 
SameSongNDance said:
beef said:
not sure there is any wr i'd rather have than hopkins. it's a very small list if there is one.

on pace for 138+/1900+.
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A completely healthy Julio possibly but no one else.
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When I did my dynasty value charts last week, Hopkins wound up coming out as the #1 wide receiver, fractions of a percent over Julio. (And fractions of a percent behind Le'Veon for the #1 overall dynasty player.)

I'm aware of four 200+ target seasons. Rob Moore had 208 in 1997, Herman Moore had 206 in 1995, Marvin Harrison had 205 in 2002, and Calvin Johnson had 203 in 2012. Hopkins needs to average ~11 targets per game the rest of the way to be the fifth name on that list. He needs ~12 targets per game to finish at the top of the list. He's currently averaging nearly 15 targets per game.

Going to be a fun run.

 
He's holding me up at the moment...I considered trading him for Foster at one point just b/c I am so thin at WR, but it just didn't make sense.

I actually drafted him as my WR2 behind J.Jones in one league, and Beckham Jr. in another.

 
The stretch run in my contract league is going to be nice, rolling out Dez/Cobb/OBJ/Hopkins every week :lookatme:

 
He was wide open for a TD today and hoyer looked right past him for difficult throw to the tight end on 4th down.

Just a bad game for Houston all around, but I think many of us were surprised he didn't get garbage points. Soft coverage rolled to Washington and they took advantage.

 
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I'm officially worried about HOU and more specifically Hops. All of the broadcasters were calling for O'biens (and romeo's) jobs. That team was beyond flat getting off the bus. So much for hard knocks. And anyone got the G2 on Mallet missing the flight?

Sure garbage time is nice, but not what we want to be hoping for weekly.

 
togo said:
Great question. Was targeted 12 times. Caught 6. Anyone see the game??
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Brent Grimes shadowed him most of the first half and there was intense pressure on Hoyer, especially early.

 
So Mallet is cut and rumor is HOU wants to bring back TJ Yates, Foster out for the year...I think D-Hop is gonna get his regardless but not sure if all of that bumps him down a notch or up.

 
Maybe I'm just a jaded Texans fan who refuses to recognize anything good on this team, but I posted this in the Texans thread last week. It was probably better suited here. I might've been a little harsh calling him a mediocre NFL WR1, but I do believe there are at least a dozen guys who could compile garbage stats via catching passes against defenses who are mailing it in. His target volume is off the charts and garbage time stats are almost 50% of his stats, yet people want to act like he's dominating games. Those games are over by the time he starts dominating.

FF Ninja said:
ragnarok628 said:
FF Ninja said:
Fat Nick said:
zeeshan2 said:
Hopkins is a bonafide stud. Good news is he will have a good QB from the draft to throw to him next year hopefully
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I've said it before (can't remember if it was in this thread or another), but Hopkins being a super-stud is based on the Texans continuing to suck and playing from behind. He can get enough separation to put up good numbers with the crappy QB's he's got now...What's driving and will drive his performance isn't he QB play, it's the play calling because they're always behind and the Texans have to throw the ball a lot.

Anyone who wants him to keep putting up monster numbers should root for the Texans to continue to suck.
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People frequently confuse volume with talent. As a Texans fan, I think Hopkins is a mediocre NFL WR1 getting beyond elite target volume (on pace for 237), frequently playing against prevent defenses. He's got 230 yards while the Texans are tied or winning and 496 while playing from behind (339 when trailing 2+ scores). Those targets will dry up if the Texans ever get to a point where they are winning games, spreading the ball around, and running out the clock (I don't see that light at the end of the tunnel, though).
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I see what you mean but on the other hand he routinely makes freakishly athletic catches that go above and beyond 'mediocre NFL WR1'. He's definitely benefiting from the factors you mention but at the same time in a less 1-dimensional offense the target quality should improve as the quantity is reduced. If he can get over his bad habit of getting flagged for OPI yet continue to demonstrate ability to get open I would think he would remain an elite option on a winning team.
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Yeah, we see that logic every year. A team signs a new WR2 and people say the WR1 will get less targets, but the lighter coverage will result in more fantasy points. That's not the whole equation, especially here. When teams are no longer playing prevent defense then the yards and catches won't come as easily. The team won't just dip in passing a little bit - it'll be huge. We lead the league in passing attempts right now. Plus, that equation only theoretically works if the target quality improves at a rate that offsets the loss of targets. There is no amount of target quality improvement that would offset the drop from 237 targets to 146 (5th most targets last year). Last year the most targets was 184. To put this in perspective, Hopkins is on pace for 29% more targets than the NFL leader last year.

Hopkins has nice hands, but he's average size at best (6'0") and below average speed (4.57). I think he's an excellent NFL WR2 and a middle of the road WR1. This won't be popular on a FF board because his garbage time stats against soft defenses make him appear elite, but I'm pretty sure it is true. Hopkins with 146 targets from an average NFL QB <<<<< Hopkins with 237 targets from Hoyer/Mallet with 45% coming in garbage time.

47% of his yards come when losing by 2+ scores. 42% of his yards come in the 4th quarter/OT. Calvin is on a 1-5 team and just caught 70 yards in OT and his splits are 23% and 28% respectively. Take away that OT and his 4th quarter yardage is only 17%.
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Update: He's up over 50% on his yardage coming while trailing by 2+ scores. Target pace down to 231.

He's an unstoppable fantasy force, but an actual elite NFL WR1 he is not.

 
Haters. I'm just trying to help you guys scout players and make money. I'm not going to entertain that Cooper comparison.

 
Eminence said:
Haters. I'm just trying to help you guys scout players and make money. I'm not going to entertain that Cooper comparison.
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Hopkins was a top WR in his own class, a consensus 1st round dynasty pick, and a 1st round NFL pick. Thanks for the help with the scouting, chap. We weren't all on the same page with Hopkins as a community or anything. He's obviously been better than anyone could have hoped for, but when you take a guy in the 1st round that's what you're shooting for: a stud.

 
Hoyer has long stretches where he is just off... or just misses open recenivers. Also keep in mind that the Phins were a buzzsaw game. The Texans walked right into it. Hard to blame the Texans if the Phins left Wash open all day long.

 
What are people doing with Hopkins now? Moving him for Top 3 WR value? Or holding on to him thinking he can replicate it the rest of the way?

 
TDorBust said:
What are people doing with Hopkins now? Moving him for Top 3 WR value? Or holding on to him thinking he can replicate it the rest of the way?
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Lots of trade offers, but none I liked well enough.

Team can't play defense + lots of targets and garbage time should allow him to continue to produce.

 
hoyer is the only thing that worries me (and as a browns fan i've seen both the good and very bad hoyer). who is the backup w/ mallet cut?

the D sucks and foster is gone. hell, his targets should increase if that's possible.

 
I can't believe that there are still people refusing to call this guy elite. There's not a single we in the league is rather have on my team rt now.

He's tied with Antonio brown for me. Above odb. Above Julio (only BC of julio's chronic health problems). Above mega. He's working on a garbage team with NO other legitimate targets aside from him, absolute garbage at qb. Every team he plays KNOWS they are going o throw him the ball and they still can't stop him.

He's an absolute beast.

 
thecardiackid said:
hoyer is the only thing that worries me (and as a browns fan i've seen both the good and very bad hoyer). who is the backup w/ mallet cut?

the D sucks and foster is gone. hell, his targets should increase if that's possible.
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So what are you worried about again? It shouldn't be Hoyer.

 
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