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WR DeAndre Hopkins, BAL (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
My 18th rounder (Fuller) is carrying my team
ETA: First rounder, not so much
ETA: First rounder, not so much
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fred_1_15301
Footballguy
Yeah I'm getting nervous. I didn't think it was possible for defenses to completely take him out but this is 2 weeks in a row. I chalked last week up to Belichick but I expected a huge rebound game against the Titans. It seems like the Texans have plenty of other options this year and they're completely content taking what the defense gives them.
GregR
Footballguy
As far as this particular game, I think most of Osweiler's worst throws in terms of accuracy / ball placement relative to the receiver, happened to mostly all go to Hopkins. Teams are still focusing on Hopkins, but Fuller's emergence, plus in this game the TEs actually were like NFL TEs for a change, gave other options.
Maybe a little of it is, Hopkins is the guy Oz is looking to in emergency when he's throwing on the move and that contributes to the less accurate passes he saw. But some of it might just be random chance. I don't think I'd panic enough to move him, but then I'm probably prone to hanging onto a player too long, so take that with appropriate salt.
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Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
Looking like I should have moved him for Baldwin and Reed last week when I had the chance. Got @Min and @Den in 2 of the next 3 weeks too. Ouch.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Pwingles
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
Baldwin and Reed straight up. Cant be a mandatory TE league? I'd have done that.
I think I could get Hopkins for Howard and Pryor- 2 guys I picked up for free-. For context its PPR with .25 per rush attempt so Rbs have more value (And couldnt care less about opinions on the rule. Again for context).
@MIN and @DEN are two of the toughest matchups out there but after that its a pretty good schedule.
thatguythere
Footballguy
Did Hopkins play last week? 
dhockster
Footballguy
One thing that hurt Hopkins last week, that could potentially help him over the long term, is O'Brien took over playcalling and got the TE's involved in the passing game. While that took away some targets for Hopkins, that may take some coverage away from him over time which means he should be more open to make plays. Osweiller really needs to play better (be more accurate) or Hopkins stats will continue to suffer.
money.never.sleeps
Footballguy
This. Osweiler just didn't put the ball in a position for bhop to have much of a chance. Throws were low and or low in the path of a defender on juno balls where he had to come back.
Sloppy game. Osweiler just wasn't very good.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
So I just bought in for redraft.
Osweiler appears not to be very good, which is a concern.
But he put up good numbers in 2014 and great numbers in 2015 with crap at QB. Is Osweiler worse than that?
The other problem seems to be the decrease in targets with the presence of Fuller. But that should balance itself out a little by taking away coverage. We'll see. I don't need him to be a top 5 WR ROS. But top 10-12 would be nice.
Osweiler appears not to be very good, which is a concern.
But he put up good numbers in 2014 and great numbers in 2015 with crap at QB. Is Osweiler worse than that?
The other problem seems to be the decrease in targets with the presence of Fuller. But that should balance itself out a little by taking away coverage. We'll see. I don't need him to be a top 5 WR ROS. But top 10-12 would be nice.
VaTerp
Footballguy
So I asked is Osweiler worse than Hopkins previous QB play.
And the answer is apparently yes, he could be. I found this stat-
Hopkins was targeted at least 20 yards downfield 44 times last season, accounting for 492 of his yards and seven of his touchdowns. Osweiler, however, was accurate on just 26.7 percent of such throws during his time in Denver, much less accurate than Hoyer (38.8 percent) with Houston.
I also just read something about how Hopkins skill as a contested catch specialist is diminished when paired with a QB who struggles with ball placement, which is a huge issue for Oswelier.
I'm likely overthinking and having some degree of buyer's remorse but I'm really concerned that Osweiler is going to lead to a significant regression for Nuk this year.
And the answer is apparently yes, he could be. I found this stat-
Hopkins was targeted at least 20 yards downfield 44 times last season, accounting for 492 of his yards and seven of his touchdowns. Osweiler, however, was accurate on just 26.7 percent of such throws during his time in Denver, much less accurate than Hoyer (38.8 percent) with Houston.
I also just read something about how Hopkins skill as a contested catch specialist is diminished when paired with a QB who struggles with ball placement, which is a huge issue for Oswelier.
I'm likely overthinking and having some degree of buyer's remorse but I'm really concerned that Osweiler is going to lead to a significant regression for Nuk this year.
Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
I think Hopkins #'s are without a doubt going to be down from last year. It just doesn't seem like him and Osweiler have great chemistry and now that they finally have some other legit weapons, Hopkins won't be force fed the ball. With that being said, I can't imagine Fuller is going to continue to get more of the market share than him. After MIN and DEN, his schedule eases up, so hopefully he's in for a big 2nd half of the season. As of now I still view him as a low end WR1, high end WR2.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Yeah I'm really in a pickle this week. We start three WR (can flex a 4th) and I am only carrying five WRs. Thomas on a bye, so I have 4 available.
I have been starting Hopkins and Fuller the last three weeks.
One of them has to start.
:X
I have been starting Hopkins and Fuller the last three weeks.
One of them has to start.
:X
VaTerp
Footballguy
Yeah, I noted that the schedule looks relatively good after @DEN and that I wasnt looking for him to be top 5, like many drafted him to be, but top 10-12. So like you said low wend WR1, high end WR2.
I'm overthinking, obsessive, and bored at work so I've now put some offers out to flip Nuk in package deals as I look for a stud WR and RB depth. Probably just need to relax.
Not expecting much 2 of the next 3 weeks then hoping he has a big 2nd half of the season.
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Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
Yea, I've been thinking of shopping him, but I'm gonna see how it plays out. I'd probably want a very good RB in return.
It's also worth noting that Braxton Miller and Duane Brown (stud LT) are coming back this week. Will be interesting to see if that has any effect on the offense/Hopkins role.
Steeler
Footballguy
VaTerp
Footballguy
Good question.
My concern is not at all with Hopkins as a player. He has elite hands, body control, and timing on his jumps. All of these things have been on display this season.
Its Osweiler's terrible accuracy and ball placement as well as the significant reduction in targets that are the concern.
If anyone believes that, it is solely due to fantasy football bias. He's basically a younger Crabtree (quality hands, quality routes, mediocre measurables). If Crabtree had ever gotten almost 200 targets with a third of them in garbage time, he'd have put up the same numbers and gotten the same hype.
VaTerp
Footballguy
The NFL top 100, which as I'm sure you know, is based on rankings by the players and has ZERO to do with FF bias has Hopkins as the 5th best WR and 19th best player overall.
There are many football people who have no FF bias who believe Hopkins is a top 5 NFL WR. Plenty of all time great players had mediocre measurables including the guy who is widely considered the greatest WR and NFL player of all time.
Hopkins has elite hands, route running, timing on his jumps, and ball skills. You can make an argument for a number of WRs to round out the top 5 so I understand if he's left out of some people's list but your first sentence is sort of ridiculous.
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Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
Yep, even when they got shutout against the Pats, pretty much all of Hopkins receptions were contested and very good catches, showing great hands, body control and awareness.
His talent is definitely not the concern here. Like you said, it's more Osweiler's accuracy and him liking to throw to Fuller a lot.
Dude, you can't seriously be using the NFL top 100 as a credible source. That list is widely panned every year for its ridiculousness.
Whether these "football people" you reference are FF people or not, Hopkins gaudy stat line from last year definitely impacted their opinions, but the fact of the matter is that those numbers were inflated. I fully expect that to be the best statistical year in his long football career. And being a healthy, younger Crabtree isn't exactly a snub. It wasn't until age 28 (after an achilles injury) that we got to see Crabtree with a competent QB in a halfway decent offense and he looked pretty good.
But I'll concede that I shouldn't have said "fantasy football bias" I should've said "stat line bias".
Don't do this. That list is merely a ranking of who had the best season last year, it's complete ####e in terms of actual value.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Thanks, but I'll do what I please.
The use of the NFL top 100 was simply a response to someone saying anyone who believes Hopkins is top 5 was doing so simply for FF bias. I cited a source with no FF bias that ranked him top 5.
It really does not matter to me where he ranks on people's subjective lists. In all honesty Hopkins is probably not in my top 5 but to suggest that those who think he is, when there are plenty of non FF people who do think he is top 5 or close to it, are doing so only b/c of FF bias is silly.
Except you cited the most bull#### possible source. He had the 5th best season by a WR last year, according to the players who actually voted in that stupid thing. If you want to continue sourcing garbage, expect the natives to call you out on it.
VaTerp
Footballguy
Call me on it then. So what?
PFF ranked him as the #6 WR in the NFL. But I know....they are not credible either. Like I said, there are plenty of football people who rank him highly. Not just because of stats but because of his route running, body control, hands, and ability to win in contested catch situations.
Where do you guys rank him? What makes it such an absurd position to take that he is, or is close to, being a top 5 NFL WR? I'm all for having a constructive conversation on Hopkins relative to other WRs from a FF or NFL perspective. If you guys just want to be argumentative for the sake of it then have fun.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Think whatever you want about your overpriced dynasty "gem" or first round redraft player. The results will speak for themselves. But if you're looking for confirmation bias, I'm sure you can find some other owners in here who will tell you Hopkins is the best thing since sliced bread. In the meantime, Crabtree is WR5 on 37 targets while Hopkins is WR30 on 33 targets.
Bucsfan5493
Footballguy
+1. Plus, look at who Crabtree has faced. The Saints and Falcons have 2 of the worst defenses in the NFL, and he scored 3 TD's last week against Shareece Wright who has been getting burned all year. Crabtree and the Raiders offense in general are going to take a hit when they start playing legit defenses.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I was just reading this article where they cite an interesting stat.
As a Vikings fan my mouth is watering a bit about the prospect.
Still higher than Hopkins? If you remove 18 points from him, he'd be WR13. And I don't mean to derail this into a Crabtree discussion, but FWIW, he's got more targets than Cooper, so the #2 on the Raiders has more targets than the #1 on the Raiders according to you. He also had more targets than Cooper last year.WheelsUp said:
33 targets in 4 games isn't absurdly low or anything. It extrapolates to 132 targets in 16 games. In 2015 that would've been tied for 15th most for a WR (tied with AJ Green, also a #1 WR on his team).
I only mentioned Crabtree initially bc his skill set, size, and athleticism are similar to Hopkins yet he never got the hype bc he never got the target volume or garbage time. They are both fine WRs in my opinion, but neither is top 5 in the NFL. Another comp would be Boldin. I think Hopkins in his prime = 95% as good as Boldin in his prime (I'm giving the edge to Boldin for his run blocking and for generally being tough as nails). Unfortunately for Boldin, he only cracked 140+ targets 3 times in 14 years.
As a Texans fan, I'm not looking forward to Sunday.Biabreakable said:
GregR
Footballguy
I'd comment that Hopkins has been getting open, there's times the ball just isn't getting to him, combo of bad passes, the line gave up pressure too quick, Os didn't see him or went somewhere else.
I don't know that last year's force-feeding is going to happen again given what we've seen from Fuller so far as another option. But I'd probably bet on Hopkins outperforming his own first four weeks pace over the rest of the season, and likely by a good margin.
I don't know that last year's force-feeding is going to happen again given what we've seen from Fuller so far as another option. But I'd probably bet on Hopkins outperforming his own first four weeks pace over the rest of the season, and likely by a good margin.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Let's level set here. Your quote, "He's basically a younger Crabtree..."FF Ninja said:
A comparison of first 3 years in league:
Rec
Yds
Y/R
TD
Crabtree
58
747
13
4
Dhop
80
1,178
15
6
Maybe it is just me, but I don't see the similarity. I also think a good argument can be made that DHop played with lesser QBs his first 3 years.
If your position is that Crabtree will be more fantasy relevant THIS year I don't take issue with your position.
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32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
Just had a chance to watch the game and I am encouraged despite the state line. What I found strange was that Osweiler did not even look his way until about 5 minutes into the 2nd Q. Seriously.
Then DHop was wide open on a trick pass that was badly under thrown because Osweiler didn't set his feet. Missed opportunity for a +20 yards play.
In the 3rd Q DHop runs a 9 route that looks to be a TD but the ball is under thrown again. There were a couple of other targets that were poorly thrown as well.
All said, had Osweiler thrown the two passes better DHop could have realistically had a 3-80-1TD stat line. Granted that isn't what I expected drafting him in the first but it sure looks a lot better then 1-4.
Fuller also return a punt for a TD that took a series away from the offense. Speaking of Fuller, he was clearly the most dynamic player on the field.
Moving forward I am certain there will be a more concerted effort to get the ball into DHop's hands. Hopefully Brown's return shores up the line and this offense gets clicking.
Then DHop was wide open on a trick pass that was badly under thrown because Osweiler didn't set his feet. Missed opportunity for a +20 yards play.
In the 3rd Q DHop runs a 9 route that looks to be a TD but the ball is under thrown again. There were a couple of other targets that were poorly thrown as well.
All said, had Osweiler thrown the two passes better DHop could have realistically had a 3-80-1TD stat line. Granted that isn't what I expected drafting him in the first but it sure looks a lot better then 1-4.
Fuller also return a punt for a TD that took a series away from the offense. Speaking of Fuller, he was clearly the most dynamic player on the field.
Moving forward I am certain there will be a more concerted effort to get the ball into DHop's hands. Hopefully Brown's return shores up the line and this offense gets clicking.
Reading comprehension isn't for everyone. If you re-read my original post that you initially replied to, you just might understand how hilarious this post of yours is. To help you out, I'll quote that post below and then try to clarify:So as you can see, I basically said the only reason people think Hopkins is better than Crabtree is because of statistics. And then you're all like, "Hopkins is better than Crabtree!! Look at these statistics for proof!!"FF Ninja said:
C'mon man.I was comparing the players' size, skill set, and athleticism while you were only comparing their situations. I never said Crabtree and Hopkins had a similar situation. In fact, I was saying the reason they are viewed differently is solely due to their drastically different situations. Crabtree was saddled with the 6 ypa version of Alex Smith, Shaun Hill, and Troy Smith (remember him?). I'm not saying Fitzpatrick and Hoyer are world beaters, but they both were in the 90's for their QBR, I believe. They also took some shots downfield for Hopkins which ~2010 Alex Smith definitely never did for Crabtree.
