1. DeVonta Smith, Alabama Crimson Tide
Projected yards/season, first five years: 777
Scouts Inc.: No. 7 overall
Similar historical prospects: Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt
Smith has a monster projection that leaves everyone else in this draft class in the dust. Smith's projection is all the more impressive considering that he gets a significant penalty for entering the draft as a senior. Smith is by far Playmaker's highest projected senior wide receiver ever, and it is not even close. That spot had previously belonged to former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Lee Evans, whose projection was more than 100 yards/season lower than Smith's.
Why is Smith's projection so high? The bottom line is that Smith had eye-popping statistics even though Alabama did not attempt many passes. The Crimson Tide passed only 425 times in 2020, yet Smith managed to record 1,856 receiving yards and 23 touchdowns. He scored a touchdown once every 19 times that Alabama attempted a pass. Only two drafted wide receiver prospects since 1996 scored touchdowns at a higher rate than Smith -- Randy Moss and Dez Bryant.
However, what makes Smith's numbers arguably more impressive than those of Bryant or Moss is that Smith had to compete with a lot of talented teammates. Moss' most notable receiver colleague was future undrafted free agent Nate Poole. Bryant's was future first-round tight end Brandon Pettigrew, who was considered more of a blocker than a receiver. By contrast, Smith had to compete for targets with fellow first-round prospect Jaylen Waddle. Of course, Waddle played less than half the season due to injury. However, Smith as a junior also had to compete with future first-round picks Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, and Smith outproduced them both.
The conventional argument against Smith is that he is unusually light for a top receiver prospect. Smith weighs in at only 170 pounds. There have been only 14 wide receivers drafted since 1998 who were lighter than Smith, and none of them was a star. However, it is also true that none of those wide receivers was an especially notable prospect and none dominated top competition like Smith did at Alabama.
Smith is a one-of-a-kind prospect who managed to put up elite numbers despite consistently having to compete with other first-round picks for catches. Of course, any prospect can bust for any number of reasons, but Smith is about as solid as they come.