RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Sorry everyone. I traded for him as soon as he started to hit a wall. I’m to blame.
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WR Emeka Egbuka, TB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I was offered JSN for Odunze and Henderson like week 3. Makes me sick man.
Straight up? Yeah, that's all on you. This is an easy accept 100 out of 100 times.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Well sure but he seems to be at his worst when throwing to Egbuka and I can't imagine drops like that 30yd TD have no impact on that.
Over the last 3 weeks since Godwin came back.
Godwin
Catch rate: 60%
Yards per target: 8.4
Egbuka
Catch rate: 36%
Yards per target: 3.7
That's with the same Baker throwing them the football
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Just here to post a reminder he's in his rookie season. And currently about ~WR13 in fantasy. I think he'll be ok. And I think anyone who drafted him in dynasty is feeling mighty fine. If not, lemme know and I'll gladly buy him off ya lol.
In August I'm pretty sure anyone trying to project his production to what we expected from Chris Godwin would be laughed out of the thread. When he's healthy Godwin is probably top 10, 15 at worst IMO, talent level in the league. The fact we are putting most peoples third rookie WR off the board in the late 1st in the same sentence as him 13 games into his career is alright by me.
In August I'm pretty sure anyone trying to project his production to what we expected from Chris Godwin would be laughed out of the thread. When he's healthy Godwin is probably top 10, 15 at worst IMO, talent level in the league. The fact we are putting most peoples third rookie WR off the board in the late 1st in the same sentence as him 13 games into his career is alright by me.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I am curious where Egbuka goes in redraft next year. Evans may/may not be retire. Are people buying high thinking the first half is more what EE will be? Or is he slipping based on how poor he has been for the past month or so.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Cop out answer, but I'd say somewhere in the middle. I think the early part of this season was his current ceiling (based on being a first year rookie), and I try not to make a habit of drafting people's ceiling. Also circumstances were prime since Godwin was already out, and after a few weeks Evans went down with injury as well. Would assume at this point both of them will be returning for next year and both should be healthy to start the season, relegating Egbuka to WR3 at best.
I drafted him in every league except 1 this year, and most of them are dynasty or keeper, so I'll be able to retain him for the OG prices spent. If his value goes up as much as I'm afraid it will, I might be passing in redraft next season. Will have to see where he's sitting in August though. I imagine expectations will temper ADP when Godwin and Evans are healthy and having solid reports from camp; so then he may still be a value, or at least be drafted at close to value.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
WR22 by PPG (lots of WR injuries). But the more concerning part is it was all front loaded when he kind of snuck up on people, and since then he's not only regressed, he's been literally the worst WR in the entire NFL, by far, from an efficiency standpoint.
In the last 8 weeks his catch percentage is 40% which ranks 192 out of 204 receivers in the NFL. The 12 guys below him are guys mostly no one has ever heard of, and have just a really small sample size on targets (IE 2 catches on 8 targets for the season). Among actual WRs that actually play, he's dead last.
YPT over that stretch is 3.7 which is of course dead last because that is historically awful. Historically.
Baker takes a lot of the blame but EE's catchable ball rate on targets is actually pretty high. About the same as Michael Wilson's for instance, and we've seen what Wilson has done with the same amount of catchable targets. Likewise as demonstrated above, other Bucs' WRs still have normal efficiency metrics, it's really mostly EE's that are the outlier of being so poor.
Maybe that all means nothing and it's just a bad hammy. But people on this board constantly harp about how FF is all luck because there is so much info out there. But the info is mostly regurgitated groupthink and taking advantage of market inefficiencies is a very real way to differentiate against that. Because of EE's very public hot start his value rose way too fast and remains extremely high both relative to his overall season and especially the direction it has taken. He's still the #17 player overall in dynasty and a top 10 dynasty WR despite, again, spending the majority of this season as one of the worst (least efficient) WRs of the last 10 years. Not worst rookie WRs, but rather any WR.
So is that a market inefficiency? Maybe. It certainly seems very plausible. The raw numbers look good because of the fast start and him being one of the few WRs to not miss time this year, along with a very high target count. And raw FF points based on high volume with low efficiency are one of the top market inefficiencies created in this hobby. Twice in the last two years I've gone to bat that raw fantasy points at low efficiency were going to cause players to lose that volume (Anthony Richardson and Kenneth Walker). In both cases it came true. That doesn't mean it always will, but how long will Baker keep targeting EE 10 times a game at 3.7ypt with a 40% catch rate before he decides to shift those targets to any of the other guys that are putting up at least reasonable/average returns on their catchable targets?
Hopefully it's just the hammy.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Not writing off the stats you posted, they are valid. I just don't know or missed what your point was. What are you saying then, is he a sell? You're out on him for next season?
I'm just not that concerned tbh. Drops rarely prove to be a sticky stat, and he didn't have a big issue with it in college. He's a rookie and getting 9 targets a game over the past 8 games. If he was getting less, odds are the efficiency metrics you pointed out would improve/be better. But I don't think owners would like him to be getting half the targets just so metrics that don't score fantasy points would be better.
I watch all the games and I don't think he looks as bad as you make it sound, at least not "one of the worst WRs of the last 10 years". Your stats certainly carry more weight than my eyes lol, so not debating that. Just that in the big picture of what I valued him at when I drafted him in dynasty till now, he's still gained value as an asset and has exceeded my expectations already. Even if he goes the next four games with below a 40% catch rate, I don't think that's changing. I understand people who adjusted their expectations after his first five weeks being disappointed. And if I had paid market value for him after week 5 I'd definitely be in the negative for ROI. But that's not the case for me, or most of his owners. So I'm not really in any kind of a panic from a dynasty perspective.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Just a reminder of how things can go sometimes: I'll always remember the first game of CeeDee Lamb's third season. Here's a post I made, and a reply to it, in the CeeDee Lamb thread back then. I'm not using the quote feature because I don't want it to seem like I'm calling that poster out about it.
Me:
2 catches on 11 targets. Rough start. CeeDee got plenty of "usage" though; if that continues, he'll be a breakout eventually. It could be an indicator that he was still not prepared to be the "alpha". But it's tough going when the defense knows you are by far the biggest receiving threat.
Reply:
He is not an alpha. Not when you watch the likes of Chase, Jefferson, Kupp, Adams, AJ Brown. Gifted, but not an alpha.
Me:
2 catches on 11 targets. Rough start. CeeDee got plenty of "usage" though; if that continues, he'll be a breakout eventually. It could be an indicator that he was still not prepared to be the "alpha". But it's tough going when the defense knows you are by far the biggest receiving threat.
Reply:
He is not an alpha. Not when you watch the likes of Chase, Jefferson, Kupp, Adams, AJ Brown. Gifted, but not an alpha.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Pretty much where I'm at.
I don't mean to be dismissive of the drops and efficiency metrics; they are definitely bad and a major drop off from where he was to start the season. I just don't think it changes anything for me on where I stand with him. In redraft he's been on my bench the past three weeks lol, but I also drafted him in the 6th/7th in most leagues so it's not a major hit like BTJ and Nabers have been. And for dynasty I was never planning on starting him much this year to begin with. So I more look at early this seasons production as a happy surprise, than the past few weeks lack of production as some big loss.
And as far as value, I personally wouldn't be selling him for a late 2026 1st as that's what I paid for him and (while it's obviously early) I don't see any rookie currently projected to go there I'd prefer to reroll with over him. And I don't think anyone's going to be offering much more than that for him in a trade. So while the drops are noteworthy; if they aren't impacting my valuation of him or altering my expectations of him long term, it doesn't make much sense to focus in on them to any big degree for me.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Sure, but I think there is a pretty big difference between 1 game playing poorly and 8 consecutive games playing poorly, especially when those 8 games represent the majority of his career so far.
Especially considering that game was an outlier for CeeDee, as only the 3rd game of his career with a 50% or lower catch rate despite having already played two full seasons.
In fact, here is a crazy stat.
Emeka Egbuka has caught 50% or fewer of his targets in 8 games in his career, out of 13 career games.
CeeDee Lamb has caught 50% or fewer of his targets in 8 games in his career, out of 91 career games.
And again, if Egbuka were valued like Rome Odunze or somewhere around that range that would be one thing. But he's valued as an elite dynasty asset, despite all-timer bad efficiency metrics during this stretch.
And also again, I get that Baker has been bad, but we're talking about a historically bad stretch and there have been plenty of QBs way worse than Baker in that stretch. For instance Michael Pittman, Alex Pierce, and Josh Downs all had catch rates in the 55-65% range and YPT around 7.5 with Anthony Richardson throwing them the ball last year.
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
What are you talking about? .. Dude is elite in every sense of the word. Work ethic, savvy route running, passion for the game, the respect he shows to the vets, etc .. He’s just a rookie dealing with the grinds of a rookie season .. Not to mention, Baker has been piss poor of late, missing him on several under-thrown/late sure fire TD’s. Last week’s drop was on him even though that was another inaccurate pass by Baker. It’s no coincidence that Egbuka was playing lights out in concert with Baker, when he was lights out as well.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Emeka will be fine.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Evans is activated and playing tomorrow. I sure hope this helps Egbuka breakout again as the WR2.
It's what I (thought) I saw when the coverage was rolled his way. Very good yes - and in a good spot - yes. But not elite yet.
Love having him this year, but he's benched for Tet this week - my other good rookie WR pick and we'll see what happens.
Definitely not mad if he proves me wrong. He and Tet both having excellent impact for what looks like years to come and neither appeat to be a-holes.
(I'll probably change my mind 6-7 times before tmrw night though -
eighsse2
Footballguy
I have both but if I only had AJ and not in the playoffs, I'd do it.
In over Kupp, Franklin, Tucker and Coker. Gut says Coker......?????
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I am. If he catches that easy TD last week his fantasy day looks very solid. Inexcusable play but one I doubt he does often.
Evans back should take a lot of attention off EE. Hopefully things get simpler for Baker too.
I’m starting him, Ladd and Evans. Sitting Burden, Coker, Odunze, and Pierce. 2 flex league too. I’m facing JSN, Allen and Bijan so just need upside. That’s it. Upside from everyone. All I need.
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Do it now. Do it as fast as you can.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Gut says he finds the endzone tonight, but I don't think I can start him. Concussion situations with Lamb and Higgins are the only reason I'm tempted to send him (or Godwin) in. Even if I assume they're out with concussion, I think I have to play AJB, Waddle, and Tetairoa ahead of the Emeka we've been getting lately. With that said, it feels like a get right game and a much tougher decision than what the rankings are indicating. Enough mouths in play that I have to step away from this one, even though that's probably what opens him up for an easy score.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Lamb iffy to play with concussion, London out with knee again, Egbuka sucking...
I thought I was STACKED at WRs after a couple trades and now my starting WRs may be McLaurin and Jennings lol.
I thought I was STACKED at WRs after a couple trades and now my starting WRs may be McLaurin and Jennings lol.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
My gut is saying something very similar. Feels like a get right game but his rookie wall has been brutal. If Evans is anything resembling 100% I can see Baker peppering him even just the 1st game back. Otton will be out, not that it matters a ton, but with Godwin playing well I just don't know. It really feels like a damned if you do damned if you don't thing. I haven't watched Kirk Cousins in Atlanta the last couple weeks and for a Thursday game script I can't make sense of. My other options are meh in some places and alright in others. Almost all of my playoff squads have Egbuka.
What my gut really says is Evans opens the offense up and Egbuka still gets 7-10 targets but of a higher quality. And it really really feels like he scores. I can't explain that.
sushinsky4tsar
Footballguy
Yep, he puts up another 5.5 point performance, which is clearly a possibility, and I feel like the dumbest person alive. Playoff hopes shot on Thursday night going up against a tough opponent. I can't, and have been playing fantasy whack-a-mole with my wr group all season, which means you're probably good for 19 if you're feeling brave.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The whack a mole energy has been seemingly historic for me this year. Between Jameson Williams, Quentin Johnston and Dallas Goedert I am ready to let my dog and cat set my lineups. I made one of the more meaningful last minute lineup decisions of my life this past Monday night with a Big Gorilla championship on the line (and a golden ticket to the big contest that starts tonight).
I had the choice between Johnston and Goedert for my last Flex spot with my opponent in the clubhouse and me needing just 4.8 points. I was *locked* in on starting QJ until about an hour or two before kickoff and doubt started creeping in. I typically don't second guess myself that late to kickoff as a general rule. Last minute changes don't work out well for me usually. I started thinking heavily about how ****ty would I feel if QJ couldn't get just 3 catches for 18 yards, or if Goedert couldn't get 2 for 18. Both guys were capable of blowing up in a positive or negative way and have done so repeatedly all year. Anyway with 15 minutes to go I locked in on Goedert and got my ship, my cash and my golden ticket. On that one decision (Goedert put up like 19 fantasy points and QJ had 2 for 8).
My dog and cat would have correctly put Gesicki and Marks into my lineup and benched Egbuka and Schultz and it wouldn't have mattered.
That same squad that's in the big dance now - I have to worry about whether Achane plays MNF or not, impacting my decision to start Egbuka tonight. Marks is highly questionable right now (and not super regardless), and Q Johnston is sitting there on my bench... just in case I have to. It *is* TE premium and although I am locked in with Goedert this week. I do have Schultz and Barner to consider as a flex alternative to Egbuka. I am locked with Jameson Williams and Waddle at WR 1 and 2 but TLDR is that if I bench Egbuka I may be forced to start either Johnston or a 2nd TE. As a general rule I don't like starting two TEs when it's a 3 week point race and I'm considering starting 3 of them. Agh. So in that one I have options at least.
In a huge quarterfinal matchup elsewhere, my only option behind Egbuka at WR2 is either Keenan Allen or Hollywood Brown or one of a couple slightly-better-than-a-scrub-but-can't-be-worse-than-a-5.9-from-Egbuka-right? Metchie, Dike, Pat Bryant if he plays.
It's what I (thought) I saw when the coverage was rolled his way. Very good yes - and in a good spot - yes. But not elite yet.
Love having him this year, but he's benched for Tet this week - my other good rookie WR pick and we'll see what happens.
Definitely not mad if he proves me wrong. He and Tet both having excellent impact for what looks like years to come and neither appeat to be a-holes.
(I'll probably change my mind 6-7 times before tmrw night though -
There was an elite WR on the field tonight - it just wasn't Egbuka.
4-7 not bad, but limited red zone and with Godwin and McMillan there are too many mouths to feed.
dipandglide
Footballguy
And Egbuka ran pure, having Evans, Irving, and Godwin all out. I don't understand why people are surprised at the decrease in production.
