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WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Isaiah McKenzie - most improved and will get playing time. could surprise and get more targets than forcast
ShaneFalco
Footballguy
It’s weird to say 12TDs and 1,300 yards is “crazy” when he had basically a quarter of that production in one game last year. And between the departed Beasley & Sanders, a ton of targets are missing.
efactor
Footballguy
Agree 100 percent
His game against KC might end up being a career game, but shows what he is capable of. Big things gonna happen in Buffalo this year. Gonna be fun to watch.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In my league, I am that guy.
I also have 2 people in this league who are in one or both of my dynasty leagues respectively. They both know I love Davis, so I’m afraid if he’s coming go me at an end of the 4th they’ll reach to snipe him from me.
efactor
Footballguy
That is a bit of an issue. How many teams?In my league, I am that guy.
I also have 2 people in this league who are in one or both of my dynasty leagues respectively. They both know I love Davis, so I’m afraid if he’s coming go me at an end of the 4th they’ll reach to snipe him from me.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
12 teams.
Oh yeah - i just traded for Davis with one of them in a dynasty league. So they *really* know how much I like him.
what pick do you have? I think you will get him in the 5th.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Won’t know until the draft
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Might?
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I would jump with joy if I could snag him in the 6th. Is this a regular PPR 12 team league? Can you elaborate with some picks that went ahead of him.
efactor
Footballguy
Young guy with young, strong armed QB. Lot of big plays in his future, so you never know
He's going on average at 6.01 in ppr so nothing remotely strange about 6.06 at all. He did slip 5 picks in my league to 6.06. I'll send the picks before him.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Has an ADP of 4.08 in the last 3 days over at FFPC. High of 3.04 and low of 5.12
efactor
Footballguy
Yeah, very popular in the tounament format because of his big game capibility. Need those in the playoffs to have a shot at the big money
Yes traditional 12 team ppr. The 5 players that went before him in round 6 were: Godwin, Mitchell, Dillon, Mahomes, M. Thomas.
For a little context, in traditional PPR, Fantasy Pros has him ranked 78th overall, and FBG has him ranked 70th overall. I got him 66th overall in the middle of the 6th.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
These are the FF sharpest players around. Tournament or not, it seems like Davis is a mid 4th to mid 5th pick. Anything after that seems like a bargain.
Which is completely inflated compared the vast majority of leagues because of that format. His ADP over the 6 days in traditional redraft PPR is 6.04.
Exactly
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
I would take Davis before all those guys. Overall rankings and ADP isn’t the same thing. Thank you for the info though!
We've kind of already been through all of this and we can agree to disagree. We have also seen Pacheco go 6.01 in this format, people jump 'sleepers' many rounds because you're going for that HOME RUN pick in this format. The majority of leagues out there you'll be able to get him in the late 5th/early 6th
What do you mean by this?
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
That ADP has Josh Allen going in the 2nd round and 4 QB’s before the end of the 4th. I honestly didn’t think people still drafted this way.
Sure, then take all the QB's out and he's still not going where you think he's going.
Here are the Projections on him by all the FBG Staffers. Overall they have him at WR29, which in traditional PPR puts him in the early to mid 6th round.
| 2022 | Consensus | 16.2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 66.7 | 1009 | 7.6 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | Amico | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 77.8 | 1275 | 7.7 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | Bloom | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 1049 | 8.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | Freeman | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 68.2 | 1069 | 7.4 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | Henry | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 57.0 | 880 | 8.0 | 0.0 | |
| 2022 | Tremblay | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 73.5 | 1051 | 6.7 | 0.7 | |
| 2022 | Wood | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 940 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
They have guys like Renfrew, Mooney, Cooper and M Thomas ahead of him. I’m not buying that advice, sorry.
It sure seems like FFPC ADP data is a little more on the upside of things, but I would argue that there is no better way of playing FF. Playing in big tournaments over the years has changed my approach in drafting teams and strategies.
It sure seems like FFPC ADP data is a little more on the upside of things, but I would argue that there is no better way of playing FF. Playing in big tournaments over the years has changed my approach in drafting teams and strategies.
Ya I just find it funny how you call those who draft in the FFPC as some of the 'sharpest minds out there', and then go on to discount the rankings of a site you subscribe to and don't think they are sharp minds.
FFPC is a unique format in that hype players get taken way too high. You have guys like Pacheco going rounds 6-10, and you really need to hit a home run in these leagues to win big money. In people's home leagues, you don't.
So sure, if you want him in FFPC then take him in the 4th. If you want him in most other leagues, you can get him in the 5th/6th and even 7th where Icon mentioned above he got him yesterday. Format matters. Yes you may like him above all those going in the 5th and 6th and that's great, but you can consistently get him later in the majority of leagues than you can by simply using the ADP of ONE expensive league format, and simply discounting and ignoring the ADP from all the other sites out there that don't match your hopes on him. Draft accordingly.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
After checking out that ADP on MFL, it’s pretty obvious that there is a significant difference in drafting strategy. I mean look no farther than Ekeler being 3rd overall or the QB’s being drafted so freaking high, I need to join these leagues!
And I need to join your leagues where guys like Gabe Davis go round 3/4.
Hate the "my league is better than yours" comments. Ekeler going 3rd overall is pretty justified and even in your 'be all end all' FFPC drafts he's going on average 5th. 2 spots is that crazy? Sheesh.
Despite the fact that I think 3rd/4th is way too high for him, I'll still be cheering for him to have a 2000yd/15td season since he's on my team. Winning a title is more important than 'being right'. Curious where he'll go in my other leagues which draft next weekend, and am quite curious where he goes in people in here's home leagues. Please post away and let us all know where he was taken once you have your draft!
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
ADP of 4.08
I started this conversation pretty much congratulating you bro. Have a good day!And I need to join your leagues where guys like Gabe Davis go round 3/4.
Hate the "my league is better than yours" comments. Ekeler going 3rd overall is pretty justified and even in your 'be all end all' FFPC drafts he's going on average 5th. 2 spots is that crazy? Sheesh.
Yet said nothing to the guy who got him in the 7th, and proceeded to talk about how your leagues were all better than everyone else's out there and how you are sharper than all the FBG staff.ADP of 4.08
I started this conversation pretty much congratulating you bro. Have a good day!And I need to join your leagues where guys like Gabe Davis go round 3/4.
Hate the "my league is better than yours" comments. Ekeler going 3rd overall is pretty justified and even in your 'be all end all' FFPC drafts he's going on average 5th. 2 spots is that crazy? Sheesh.
But I digress, have a good day too
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think those drafts already happened so it's probably too late, but good luck.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The $350 FFPC tourneys that have been referenced are officially called the Footballguys Players Championship leagues, and they are 100% affiliated with this site and these boards in that sense. And yes they are tourneys but you still compete H2H for the first 12 weeks like usual*. They are normal managed leagues in that sense. *You play each opponent once and then there is one week that is an all play week where 6 highest scoring teams get a W and bottom 6 an L.
But anyway this ADP talk is getting super old. Obviously any number of players are going to vary where they're going from one site to another, and this has been true forever. Drafters are consistently taking Davis ahead of ADP and probably a good round ahead of rankings on various sites.
But anyway this ADP talk is getting super old. Obviously any number of players are going to vary where they're going from one site to another, and this has been true forever. Drafters are consistently taking Davis ahead of ADP and probably a good round ahead of rankings on various sites.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You do understand the difference right?
Of course, I just didn't know where he was going with that, because both rankings and ADP both showed that he was going later than he "thought they should go".
And also consistently taking Davis after ADP. That's how Averages work
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Chaka
Footballguy
Exactly, if you're league isn't configured so that at least 4 QBs come off in the first round, and 4 more in the second, you're doing it wrong.
candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Oh my goodness. Good luck this season!Yet said nothing to the guy who got him in the 7th, and proceeded to talk about how your leagues were all better than everyone else's out there and how you are sharper than all the FBG staff.ADP of 4.08
I started this conversation pretty much congratulating you bro. Have a good day!And I need to join your leagues where guys like Gabe Davis go round 3/4.
Hate the "my league is better than yours" comments. Ekeler going 3rd overall is pretty justified and even in your 'be all end all' FFPC drafts he's going on average 5th. 2 spots is that crazy? Sheesh.
But I digress, have a good day too
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
If you remember the narrative of Bills training camp 2021, it was the acquisition of Emmanuel Sanders as the legitimate #2 WR opposite Diggs after Allen's breakthrough campaign. You do that when you don't think a guy like Davis is ready.
After the JAX loss (6-9), Sanders never eclipsed 36 yards or 3 receptions in a game. Davis's first game after that loss was a 3/105/0 effort. He was the #2 after that.
Davis doesn't enter this season as a backup so I think there is a big difference.
Here is how I see Davis's performance as effectively a starter last year.
Weeks 14-15, 17-18 when he played between 83-91% of the snaps. No other regular season game did he go over 52% so I don't see that as any guide to forecasting what he can do as a full time starter.
Playoffs week 1-2 where he got 71% and 83% of the snaps.
The 71% is just a tad low for what I'd project him next year where he should fall in that 83-91% range most weeks but I think it's good enough to use as a framework.
That's 6 games in total.
8/5/43/1
7/5/85/2
3/3/40/0
14/3/39/0
3/2/41/1
10/8/201/4
When you see it that way you see he did have 2 games that were duds but one of them is almost an anomaly with a 14 target dud game.
Per game this breaks down to: 7.5 targets, 4.3 catches, 74.8 yards, 1.3 TD's and would translate to 128 targets, 73/1,272/22 TD's.
That's who I think he should be viewed as a starter but really have no idea that to make of it when so much of that production came from one game yet mainly due to TD's he was pretty solid 3 of his other 5 weeks.
Obviously a 22 TD pace is not what anyone is predicting but if he was able to be a 73/1272 guy over course of a 17 game schedule and that TD total was 10 instead of 20 he'd put up 15.29 PPR fantasy points which would be WR15 in PPG last year.
He's going as WR20 over last few days in FFPC so I don't view him really risky at all and with at minimum big weekly upside he has it's really easy to argue he should be going sooner. And yet I've not drafted him this year and the reason for that and why I can't call him a slam dunk pick in that range as opposed to merely someone I look at is that area of the draft is jammed full of enticing WR prospects. Looking at the WR's whose ADP is right above his and you got Waddle, McClaurin and Allen Robinson. The 5 after Diontae, Cooks, ASB, Marquese and Juedy and that's not even including your Godwin, Thomas, Metcalf, Bateman, JuJu guys.
It's just tough business sorting out the WR's in this range and my guess how people sort out these WR's will be the biggest key this year to their redraft fantasy football seasons.
Weeks 14-15, 17-18 when he played between 83-91% of the snaps. No other regular season game did he go over 52% so I don't see that as any guide to forecasting what he can do as a full time starter.
Playoffs week 1-2 where he got 71% and 83% of the snaps.
The 71% is just a tad low for what I'd project him next year where he should fall in that 83-91% range most weeks but I think it's good enough to use as a framework.
That's 6 games in total.
8/5/43/1
7/5/85/2
3/3/40/0
14/3/39/0
3/2/41/1
10/8/201/4
When you see it that way you see he did have 2 games that were duds but one of them is almost an anomaly with a 14 target dud game.
Per game this breaks down to: 7.5 targets, 4.3 catches, 74.8 yards, 1.3 TD's and would translate to 128 targets, 73/1,272/22 TD's.
That's who I think he should be viewed as a starter but really have no idea that to make of it when so much of that production came from one game yet mainly due to TD's he was pretty solid 3 of his other 5 weeks.
Obviously a 22 TD pace is not what anyone is predicting but if he was able to be a 73/1272 guy over course of a 17 game schedule and that TD total was 10 instead of 20 he'd put up 15.29 PPR fantasy points which would be WR15 in PPG last year.
He's going as WR20 over last few days in FFPC so I don't view him really risky at all and with at minimum big weekly upside he has it's really easy to argue he should be going sooner. And yet I've not drafted him this year and the reason for that and why I can't call him a slam dunk pick in that range as opposed to merely someone I look at is that area of the draft is jammed full of enticing WR prospects. Looking at the WR's whose ADP is right above his and you got Waddle, McClaurin and Allen Robinson. The 5 after Diontae, Cooks, ASB, Marquese and Juedy and that's not even including your Godwin, Thomas, Metcalf, Bateman, JuJu guys.
It's just tough business sorting out the WR's in this range and my guess how people sort out these WR's will be the biggest key this year to their redraft fantasy football seasons.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Eke is a 1.03 pick in virtually every PPR league. What a preposterous take.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Excellent post. He’s such a difficult player to project, because when you do people scoff at the numbers - the 22 TD pace, 1200-1300 yards.
Yet every just about time he’s on the field he’s making big plays & scoring touchdowns.
The last preseason game did nothing to dispel this.
But even I look at the numbers and think, “ok, that just not realistic” - except that’s what he’s been doing. The numbers are what they are.
So I try to keep my expectations a bit more modest at 80-ish, ~1000-ish, ~10-Ish.
And as you say - that’s rock solid for his ADP. And an excellent point about his potential Vs the players going around him.
I have both Davis & ARSB in my rebuild team, and in redraft I’d pick Davis 100 out of 100 times. And it’d be an easy call.
Ostro
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s just such a thin branch to go out on. They look like video game numbers.
And it’s hard to project that for a team’s WR2.
But I concede it’s possible. Not likely. But possible.
jm192
Footballguy
I've got him at ~80/1100/8. I'm a big fan at ADP
Ostro
Footballguy
I know, and I feel the same way about him as your post a few posts up.
80/1000/10, but then you watch him and josh play and it's like, 17 games, a couple multi-touchdown games, a couple no-touchdown games, yeah 10-15 TD's seems 100% reasonable.
efactor
Footballguy
Better grab him at the 1/2 turn then
jm192
Footballguy
15 Touchdowns is pretty elite for a WR. I think Davis is a good player in a great offense. There are Wide Receivers that are way better than him that I don't envision getting 15 touchdowns.
