Chaka
Footballguy
Believe me I know. Way back in the stone ages of 1997 I drafted Emmitt Smith and Curtis Martin with my first two picks. They stayed healthy all season, put up 2,700 yards combined and all of 9 TDs.
Crazy world.
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WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
Crazy world.
Chaka
Footballguy
Okay, how about two billion dollars.And is that a buy-low?
Team Chaos
Footballguy
You are on a roll tonight! 
Couple drafts from guys on this board happened and was curious where they went. Coincidentally (or not), all 3 drafted him themselves. Who knows how much farther they would have slipped without this thread 
@C-Bound took him at 8.08 tonight
@VikingFrog took him at 6.03 tonight
@Deamon took him at 6.06 last night
3rd, 4th, and even 5th is still looking quite rare in most leagues. Pump the brakes and draft accordingly, you can get him in the 6th.
@C-Bound took him at 8.08 tonight
@VikingFrog took him at 6.03 tonight
@Deamon took him at 6.06 last night
3rd, 4th, and even 5th is still looking quite rare in most leagues. Pump the brakes and draft accordingly, you can get him in the 6th.
nittanylion
Footballguy
WR 2/3 with upside (12-Team League, all other things being equal (healthy), IMHO the ceiling is WR18).
Diggs is going to eat an enormous amount of a large pie, and everything I've studied about the upcoming '22 Season leads me to believe that offense starts, finishes and flows through Allen/Diggs, and most everyone else is going to be fighting each other for inconsistent week-to-week variable leftovers, when the games count and the entire offense and personnel are being employed, unlike what happens in preseason.
Using a 12-Team League as a foundation, after Diggs, IMHO the next likely player to perform above ADP is Dawson Knox. I think he and his role are unique enough to carve out a piece for himself, and protect it.
I agree with @jm192 above that 'Davis is a good player in a great offense.' He's good. As in fine. Nice. He's neither special nor elite. In the right place, at the right time.
In that regard, if I'm correct, (and it's certainly likely I'm not), when games count, and the entire personnel and playbook are being employed, Davis will be fighting for targets with Singletary, Cook, McKenzie, Crowder, Shakir, Hodgins, maybe others.
The pie itself, at least the passing game part of it, might even be smaller than last year. The Bills upgraded their offensive line with Roger Saffold, a stud run blocker from Tennessee. They brought over Quessenberry (sp?) from Tenn as well, another competent run blocker; I think he's displacing the other OT opposite Dawkins...that Dawkins/Saffold/Morse group on the one side is a monster run blocking unit. You don't make that add without intention of running the ball more. More run = less clock = less overall plays. That offense will still comparably be a monster, but maybe the gap isn't as big, and maybe the run/pass mix undergoes a slight adjustment.
Love him in the 7th/8th as a WR4. Absolutely not happening. Will not draft Davis in 6th or higher; I like too many others in those Rds, so likely more for everyone else, which I'm sure most will be happy to take.
JMHO. Respect to those who feel otherwise.
Diggs is going to eat an enormous amount of a large pie, and everything I've studied about the upcoming '22 Season leads me to believe that offense starts, finishes and flows through Allen/Diggs, and most everyone else is going to be fighting each other for inconsistent week-to-week variable leftovers, when the games count and the entire offense and personnel are being employed, unlike what happens in preseason.
Using a 12-Team League as a foundation, after Diggs, IMHO the next likely player to perform above ADP is Dawson Knox. I think he and his role are unique enough to carve out a piece for himself, and protect it.
I agree with @jm192 above that 'Davis is a good player in a great offense.' He's good. As in fine. Nice. He's neither special nor elite. In the right place, at the right time.
In that regard, if I'm correct, (and it's certainly likely I'm not), when games count, and the entire personnel and playbook are being employed, Davis will be fighting for targets with Singletary, Cook, McKenzie, Crowder, Shakir, Hodgins, maybe others.
The pie itself, at least the passing game part of it, might even be smaller than last year. The Bills upgraded their offensive line with Roger Saffold, a stud run blocker from Tennessee. They brought over Quessenberry (sp?) from Tenn as well, another competent run blocker; I think he's displacing the other OT opposite Dawkins...that Dawkins/Saffold/Morse group on the one side is a monster run blocking unit. You don't make that add without intention of running the ball more. More run = less clock = less overall plays. That offense will still comparably be a monster, but maybe the gap isn't as big, and maybe the run/pass mix undergoes a slight adjustment.
Love him in the 7th/8th as a WR4. Absolutely not happening. Will not draft Davis in 6th or higher; I like too many others in those Rds, so likely more for everyone else, which I'm sure most will be happy to take.
JMHO. Respect to those who feel otherwise.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
All WRs have other WRs/RBs/TEs on the team that take away targets - none of those guys, after Diggs or Davis, are guys that demand targets (they just get them when other guys are covered). You need to ask yourself who will most likely see the second most targets on the Bills this season? To me, that's not a very difficult question to answer.
efactor
Footballguy
Well put. Davis will have the 2nd most targets by far and his target share will be closer to Diggs than whoever WR 3 ends up being.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve read from many writers I respect that Knox might be a candidate for regression this year, as the team uses him as more of a traditional TE. Not necessarily a bust, but not an ascending player.
Do with this information what you will, but I believe you’re dramatically underestimating the opportunity Davis has. All those receivers you name-checked will have roles - I agree. But none are expected to see the field as much as Davis.
Most leagues meaning every non ffpc league I've seen, and the thousands from all adp sites yes.
I thought you only commented on "superior 2qb leagues" and if so then he's never before round 6
EDT: Oops confused you with Chaka. But the first line still works.
Have you seen him go in the 3rd 4th or even 5th in any leagues except for FFPC or those online tournament style leagues?
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Exactly. Bills are reportedly expected to run with 2 TE & 2 WR often this year - and Davis is on the field in those formations.
80-90% snap share would put Davis into rare territory for opportunity, especially in an offense that’s expected to run a lot of plays.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think you have me confused with someone else. I’ve never said this. My only SF leagues are my dynasty
My comments on Davis here have all been 1-QB leagues, and I’ve never said nor implied that 2 QB leagues are “superior” so I’m not sure why you’re using quotes.
Ya my bad, mixed you up with chaka.
Where have you been seeing him go in your own/friends' leagues that aren't online tournament fppc style?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ll let you know Saturday after mine.
Hopefully to me in the 6th, but I might reach in the 5th since I know for certain at least 2 members of my league are very high on him.
Ya I'm REALLY wanting to hear people in here who have their league drafts and see where he goes. But I do have a feeling he will be going to the people in the thread, so the data will be skewed. Some of y'all will take him in the 4th and 5th and say "see! he went in round 4 in my league!"I’ll let you know Saturday after mine.
Hopefully to me in the 6th, but I might reach in the 5th since I know for certain at least 2 members of my league are very high on him.
But the fact that you're targeting him in the 6th is refreshing and is good value there, and that's been my whole point this whole time, is that there's no need to take him in the 3rd, 4th, or even early 5th like a lot of people in here are arguing.
Whats your draft slot?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The only drafts I’ve been in have been the NFC ones, and he’s gone as early as 3.0x and as late as 5.01
That said, his ADP includes the early picks. In thousands of leagues he is being taken before that average and in thousands of leagues he’s being taken after that average.
My IDP redraft home league on Saturday is a mix of very experienced high information FF-er (20+ years, play in several leagues + dynasty) and somewhat experienced FF-ers (1-3 leagues, no dynasty, but football junkies). So it will be atypical of some of the guppy leagues that make up a lot of ADP.
I’m not saying guppies will necessarily skew the average higher - I find it’s the opposite. The sharks tend to reach by a round or 2 to get that break out difference maker.
Guppies do as well sometimes if they read an article saying Davis is the next must-have FF superstar.
But in the case of my home league I fully expect to have to pay a 5th, and wouldn’t be shocked by a late 4th selection depending on who’s drafting where. Like if I’m at 1 and a specific dude is at 2, he’d probably snipe him at 4.11 knowing I wouldn’t let him slip past the turn. Because I literally acquired Davis from him in our dynasty league a couple weeks ago.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
We pull poker chips with names taped to them 30 mins before the draft. Then it’s KDS, so I’ll take my preference of what’s left. I guess my preferred order is 1, 2, 3, 12, 11, 10, 4, 9, 5, 8, 6, 7?
So you said you're hoping to get him in the 6th, but might reach for him in the 5th, and now you're saying you might even reach really hard for him in the 4th?
Again, haven't seen any home leagues where he's going as high as 4th/early 5th.
I'm assuming this is 3rr. Either way, if your goal is to get him in the 6th then You're in pretty good shape. If you get the 11 or 10 spot which seems likely, then 5.11 seems like a good spot for him
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think you misread.
I said a league-mate might m, in a specific circumstance, reach for him in the 4th to snipe him from me before a turn, knowing he wouldn’t make it back.
In that hypothetical I’d be targeting him 5.01 but potentially getting screwed by team 4.11
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Fixed
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean if someone wants to take him at 4.11 then let them lol
When you become so locked in on a player that you'll take him anywhere and are that scared to lose him, that's how you lose drafts.
But ya, fill us in where he goes, am still seeing from all the non tournament style drafts so far that there's no reason at all to take him in the 3rd or 4th.
And you really want 12 over 4?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh I agree completely. It would irritate me, but it would potentially mean a better player could fall to me.
In that scenario I wouldn’t have any choice - and missing him by basically 1 pick would be annoying, as I believe there’s a chance for a huge profit at that price.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think so, yes. I don’t really want CMC or Eke, and see a potential scenario where my league-mates go JT-> Kupp -> JJ -> chase in some order.
That would leave me reaching for Adams, or taking a RB to start, which I’d rather not do this year.
This would make a good topic - imma start it!
shocking lol
interesting. I highly doubt your league will go JT Kupp JJ Chase, but I guess anything is possible. Pick 4 still gets you one of those guys though.I think so, yes. I don’t really want CMC or Eke, and see a potential scenario where my league-mates go JT-> Kupp -> JJ -> chase in some order.
That would leave me reaching for Adams, or taking a RB to start, which I’d rather not do this year.
This would make a good topic - imma start it!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah, maybe I keep 4. I don’t mind Chase, it’s Kupp I’d kind of like to avoid. I don’t love his chances of repeating, staying healthy, and then there’s Stafford’s chicken wing. That’s more my point.interesting. I highly doubt your league will go JT Kupp JJ Chase, but I guess anything is possible. Pick 4 still gets you one of those guys though.I think so, yes. I don’t really want CMC or Eke, and see a potential scenario where my league-mates go JT-> Kupp -> JJ -> chase in some order.
That would leave me reaching for Adams, or taking a RB to start, which I’d rather not do this year.
This would make a good topic - imma start it!
I'm extremely confident you will get Chase or JJ at 6. I can't imagine your league letting CMC or Ekeler fall to pick 7. Don't let that one FPC league you did fool you. Then if you pick at 6, you can reach a bit and take Gabe at 5.06 if you really need him that badYeah, maybe I keep 4. I don’t mind Chase, it’s Kupp I’d kind of like to avoid. I don’t love his chances of repeating, staying healthy, and then there’s Stafford’s chicken wing. That’s more my point.interesting. I highly doubt your league will go JT Kupp JJ Chase, but I guess anything is possible. Pick 4 still gets you one of those guys though.I think so, yes. I don’t really want CMC or Eke, and see a potential scenario where my league-mates go JT-> Kupp -> JJ -> chase in some order.
That would leave me reaching for Adams, or taking a RB to start, which I’d rather not do this year.
This would make a good topic - imma start it!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
JJ is going top 3. So is Kupp. I’d bet my life on it. CMC will fall. Not only does this league favor WRs, they’re risk averse with 1st round picks.
I’ve done 3 NFC leagues - I’m not letting them influence me in the slightest. I’ve known some of these guys 20+ years & played FF with a few for that long.
Trust that 3 WR will be gone before pick 1.06
Well let us know after the draft tonight, curious. That is surprising though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s Saturday the 27th,
JJ went #5 tonight in your league. Oof... good thing you didn't bet your life on it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Haha, or predictably. JJ and Kupp never shoulda gone top 3.
Did CMC slip below #6 as you guaranteed?
Chaka
Footballguy
It depends, is it an inherently superior super-flex league?
Your shtick might have been funny for a few posts (it wasn't), but it's pretty tired now. Maybe try something new?
Chaka
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He did I’m not sure why you’re so bent on acting like this.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s 1 QB, but my league typically goes top heavy WR.
This was an atypical year. Not sure why deamon is so obsessed with this.
Because it wasn't "unpredictable" that Kupp and JJ both didn't go top 3 like you bet your life they would. It was very obvious they wouldn't and you dug your heels in saying they would. It didn't happen that way (obviously) and you can't seem to admit that. You make big claims and swear on your life that they'll happen just to create an argument, and when they don't, you don't like anyone posting about it or you call them names.
Anyways, congrats on the team and I'm glad this thread has chilled out after people are now seeing that rounds 3-5 are atypical in home leagues. Hopefully people didn't listen to the hype in here and waited to the 6th to get him (like you did. good job).
Guess I was right not to trust you lol
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I thought they would be. I’m happy I was wrong. Now let it go, this is stupid.
Just be happy you had a great draft man, jeez.
Team Chaos
Footballguy
Oops! I laughed. I thought it was kind of funny.
