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WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (1 Viewer)

Yeah, I'm as big a stan as you will find here but what I wrote in January has held true - that his redraft ADP would likely be prohibitive for me this year. And so far that has been true consistently throughout the offseason, going in the 4th and 5th rounds. I have grabbed a couple shares here and there in big FFPC redrafts and Underdog bestballs and such but largely have avoided him even though I think he probably crushes this year.

But my ~15 year home league drafted Sunday night at my buddy's house. 1st time we got together to draft since the pandemic and we had a blast. But Davis lasted until the 7th and I was ecstatic to take him there. 7.06 baby LFG!!

I am obviously still very excited about my **checks notes** 44% dynasty rostership of Davis. 12 shares. All but a couple taken as 3rd, 4th round rookie picks, cheap throw in on deals or as FAAB pickup, like in our FFPC SharkPool league.
 
GroveDiesel said:
So it could very well end up that Davis becomes a bigger weapon and threat as a WR, but that it doesn’t tremendously benefit his fantasy value because McKenzie and Cook earn a bigger share of targets from their positions than what was there last year.
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I don't see Cook/McKenzie impacting Davis' to that extent. I feel like they play a much different role, and while yes, they'll absorb some targets, it won't be that impactful to Davis/Diggs.

I like McKenzie in the slot, but IMO he's going to hurt Crowder much more if he has an impact. Davis has reportedly been running a lot of quick-hitter plays in practice - slants, quick outs, etc. Also he's very good along the sidelines. From what I've been reading, his best attribute might be the improvised routes when Allen buys time. He's very good at improvising, and getting Allen a target when they go off-script, which Allen does frequently. It's those plays that I believe will get Davis into the top 25 range if he gets there.

Add that to the high % of snaps he's expected to play, even in 2-wide sets, and I just don't think it's possible that his fantasy value doesn't benefit. IMO there's a lot of meat on the bone for Davis to take a big leap, even with Cook and McKenzie carving out meaningful roles. Your team calls a lot of offensive plays.
 
barackdhouse said:
Yeah, I'm as big a stan as you will find here but what I wrote in January has held true - that his redraft ADP would likely be prohibitive for me this year. And so far that has been true consistently throughout the offseason, going in the 4th and 5th rounds. I have grabbed a couple shares here and there in big FFPC redrafts and Underdog bestballs and such but largely have avoided him even though I think he probably crushes this year.

But my ~15 year home league drafted Sunday night at my buddy's house. 1st time we got together to draft since the pandemic and we had a blast. But Davis lasted until the 7th and I was ecstatic to take him there. 7.06 baby LFG!!

I am obviously still very excited about my **checks notes** 44% dynasty rostership of Davis. 12 shares. All but a couple taken as 3rd, 4th round rookie picks, cheap throw in on deals or as FAAB pickup, like in our FFPC SharkPool league.
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44%!! :lol:

I can't believe he made it to the 7th - my home league drafts on the 27th, and I'm going to start praying heavily that happens for me. :tebow:
 
Hype is out of control on this guy and I own him in several dynasty leagues but in underdog he is going in the 4th round on the regular.
 
Dez said:
Hype is out of control on this guy and I own him in several dynasty leagues but in underdog he is going in the 4th round on the regular.
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I think a fair argument can be made for him once Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin, and Mike Williams fall off the board. I'd rather wait a bit longer as I think there are a lot of good risks in that group of WR's in the WR25-35 range but on the other hand I'm not against going and getting your guys. There are a lot of targets available, so if the Bills want to give him a 130 role they can.
 
Dez said:
Hype is out of control on this guy and I own him in several dynasty leagues but in underdog he is going in the 4th round on the regular.
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Where do you think he ranks in comparison to this year's rookie crop for dynasty?
 
HW_53 said:
Dez said:
Hype is out of control on this guy and I own him in several dynasty leagues but in underdog he is going in the 4th round on the regular.
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Where do you think he ranks in comparison to this year's rookie crop for dynasty?
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Knowing everything I know now, I’d have him around 1.05. That may seem high but I just see as much upside in him as any of the rookies and he’s not much older than some of them.
 
GABRIEL DAVIS WR, BUFFALO BILLS

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia reports "there isn’t much standing in the way of both [WR Stefon Diggs and WR Gabriel Davis] being on the field for 90-plus percent of the snaps in 2022."​

Buscaglia writes that Davis may not just match Diggs' snap share, he could in fact surpass it. "Davis is also the Bills’ top run-blocking receiver, so don’t be surprised if he leads the receivers in offensive snaps this season." More importantly for fantasy purposes, Davis has impressed in his No. 2 receiver role. "Davis has all the makings of the most talented No. 2 receiver Allen has had in Buffalo. He has improved as a separator and with his intermediate routes and looks primed to play a huge role this season." The drumbeat on Davis has been deafening this summer. His fourth-round ADP is fairly optimistic, but at the same time leaves room for upside if he can take advantage of the opportunity to be an every-down receiver in a Josh Allen offense.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Aug 18, 2022, 11:25 AM ET
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Faust said:
GABRIEL DAVIS WR, BUFFALO BILLS

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia reports "there isn’t much standing in the way of both [WR Stefon Diggs and WR Gabriel Davis] being on the field for 90-plus percent of the snaps in 2022."​

Buscaglia writes that Davis may not just match Diggs' snap share, he could in fact surpass it. "Davis is also the Bills’ top run-blocking receiver, so don’t be surprised if he leads the receivers in offensive snaps this season." More importantly for fantasy purposes, Davis has impressed in his No. 2 receiver role. "Davis has all the makings of the most talented No. 2 receiver Allen has had in Buffalo. He has improved as a separator and with his intermediate routes and looks primed to play a huge role this season." The drumbeat on Davis has been deafening this summer. His fourth-round ADP is fairly optimistic, but at the same time leaves room for upside if he can take advantage of the opportunity to be an every-down receiver in a Josh Allen offense.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Aug 18, 2022, 11:25 AM ET
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Echoes much of what I’ve been saying all off-season. Best run blocking WR on the team.

I don’t see him passing Diggs production, but a 90% snap could would give him the opportunity to reach his ceiling.

Thrilled I went out and got him before this story dropped. His trade value is only going up with this.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Faust said:
GABRIEL DAVIS WR, BUFFALO BILLS

The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia reports "there isn’t much standing in the way of both [WR Stefon Diggs and WR Gabriel Davis] being on the field for 90-plus percent of the snaps in 2022."​

Buscaglia writes that Davis may not just match Diggs' snap share, he could in fact surpass it. "Davis is also the Bills’ top run-blocking receiver, so don’t be surprised if he leads the receivers in offensive snaps this season." More importantly for fantasy purposes, Davis has impressed in his No. 2 receiver role. "Davis has all the makings of the most talented No. 2 receiver Allen has had in Buffalo. He has improved as a separator and with his intermediate routes and looks primed to play a huge role this season." The drumbeat on Davis has been deafening this summer. His fourth-round ADP is fairly optimistic, but at the same time leaves room for upside if he can take advantage of the opportunity to be an every-down receiver in a Josh Allen offense.
SOURCE: The Athletic
Aug 18, 2022, 11:25 AM ET
Click to expand...
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I don’t see him passing Diggs production...
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I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he did.
I'm not saying he's a better player right now, but with Diggs attracting top attention from the defense, I could easily see a scenario where Davis actually gets more looks.
 
I had to go back and look at my notes (from the Davis article I wrote in January) but from week 14 through the end of the Bills playoffs (6 games total), Davis earned a 29% WR target share compared to 36% to Diggs. That was 9 targets per game for Davis and 11 for Diggs. And 9 more for the other WRs. There is plenty of room for both Davis and Diggs to produce at a high level for fantasy.

Sanders was (supposedly) back healthy during this stretch but Davis had surpassed him. I forget what Beasley's status was but I do think it is fair to say there are going to be other healthy weapons on the field this year. Whether Crowder, MacKenzie, Shakir, or a continued emergence of Knox, as well as a presumed increase in emphasis towards getting the RBs involved in the passing game. I think Cook might be special. This offense is going to be sizzling and those can typically support two fantasy-relevant WRs but I do think there is a risk of a whack-a-mole situation from week to week.

Which makes Diggs actually a little bit risky for a 1st rounder. Even though I keep taking him there. Davis is going as early as the 4th (and has gone in the 3rd). That is pretty hard for me to pull the trigger on but I can't help but think he is going to eat alongside Diggs. I still favor Crowder to win the job in the slot and he is basically free again. If he can be healthy I think he is way more explosive, especially in terms of YAC, than Beasley was. So again it adds risks to the others.

Josh Allen seems to be the one to target. Or all of them in best ball. They might average 40 points a game and break records.
 
Davis may actually be underrated and, IMO, Josh Allen may be too. Allen could be a league winner. This O-line is going to be better than last year’s and the offense as a whole is better as well. If everyone stays healthy, this offense is going to roll all year.
 
GroveDiesel said:
Davis may actually be underrated and, IMO, Josh Allen may be too. Allen could be a league winner. This O-line is going to be better than last year’s and the offense as a whole is better as well. If everyone stays healthy, this offense is going to roll all year.
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The problem with Allen is his cost in comparison to other QBs - even if he is the overall QB1, which I think there is a good chance, he is going in the late 3rd in many drafts, while you can get QBs with strong upside like Hurts, Burrows, Kyler, etc. 3-5 rounds later. The opportunity cost is just huge when you compare it to the drop at RB/WR
 
acarey50 said:
The problem with Allen is his cost in comparison to other QBs - even if he is the overall QB1, which I think there is a good chance, he is going in the late 3rd in many drafts, while you can get QBs with strong upside like Hurts, Burrows, Kyler, etc. 3-5 rounds later. The opportunity cost is just huge when you compare it to the drop at RB/WR
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QBs get injured less often than RBs. When you factor that in, and the projected point differential between Allen and Hurts, Kyler, Burrow (70 -100 points), taking Allen in the 3rd could make sense.
 
GroveDiesel said:
Davis may actually be underrated and, IMO, Josh Allen may be too. Allen could be a league winner. This O-line is going to be better than last year’s and the offense as a whole is better as well. If everyone stays healthy, this offense is going to roll all year.
Click to expand...
Davis is going in the 3rd & 4th rounds in some formats. I’m starting to warm to him as a 4th round pick. 😳
 
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GroveDiesel said:
Davis may actually be underrated and, IMO, Josh Allen may be too. Allen could be a league winner. This O-line is going to be better than last year’s and the offense as a whole is better as well. If everyone stays healthy, this offense is going to roll all year.
Click to expand...
Allen going QB1 and his ranking being significantly higher than anyone else's, it seems unlikely he's "underrated"
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
GroveDiesel said:
Davis may actually be underrated and, IMO, Josh Allen may be too. Allen could be a league winner. This O-line is going to be better than last year’s and the offense as a whole is better as well. If everyone stays healthy, this offense is going to roll all year.
Click to expand...
Davis is going in the 3rd & 4th rounds. I’m starting to warm to him as a 4th round pick. 😳
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Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?
 
Deamon said:
Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?
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In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Deamon said:
Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?
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In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.
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Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.
 
Deamon said:
Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.
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Yeah, I should have said “in some formats”

Though if ADP is 6th, you’ll have to spend a 5th to nab him depending on where you’re draft position is.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Deamon said:
Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.
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Yeah, I should have said “in some formats”

Though if ADP is 6th, you’ll have to spend a 5th to nab him depending on where you’re draft position is.
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Ya I agree, Better said like that. Davis is going in the 3rd and 4th rounds (Of extremely rare and unique leagues where guys like Pacheco are going round 6, Pittman mid 2nd, Adams and Diggs top 5 picks).
For everyone else, ADP is slightly rising but isn't anywhere near 3rd or 4th rounds, so draft accordingly as you can likely get him in round 5 if you really want him, but waiting until round 6 is pretty risky now.
 
Deamon said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Deamon said:
Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?
Click to expand...
In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.
Click to expand...
Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.
Click to expand...
No Davis is going in the 4th in lots of formats. In the $350 FBGs drafts he is going at 5.02 on average over 42 drafts over the last 3 days, as early as 3.12 and late as 6.12 as WR23 on average. In the $2000 Main Events, there have been 11 drafts over the last 3 days and he is going on average at 4.12. Underdog bestball drafts he is going 4th round consistently. It isn't unique and crazy leagues. It is mainstream leagues all over the place. And yes it is almost prohibitively expensive for him, even though I bet he pays it off.
 
barackdhouse said:
Deamon said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Deamon said:
Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?
Click to expand...
In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.
Click to expand...
Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.
Click to expand...
No Davis is going in the 4th in lots of formats. In the $350 FBGs drafts he is going at 5.02 on average over 42 drafts over the last 3 days, as early as 3.12 and late as 6.12 as WR23 on average. In the $2000 Main Events, there have been 11 drafts and he is going on average at 4.12. Underdog bestball drafts he is going 4th round consistently. It isn't unique and crazy leagues. It is mainstream leagues all over the place. And yes it is almost prohibitively expensive for him, even though I bet he pays it off.
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Agreed… I am warming to the idea of him in the fourth. The third is way too high.
 
barackdhouse said:
Deamon said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Deamon said:
Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?
Click to expand...
In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.
Click to expand...
Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.
Click to expand...
No Davis is going in the 4th in lots of formats. In the $350 FBGs drafts he is going at 5.02 on average over 42 drafts over the last 3 days, as early as 3.12 and late as 6.12 as WR23 on average. In the $2000 Main Events, there have been 11 drafts over the last 3 days and he is going on average at 4.12. Underdog bestball drafts he is going 4th round consistently. It isn't unique and crazy leagues. It is mainstream leagues all over the place. And yes it is almost prohibitively expensive for him, even though I bet he pays it off.
Click to expand...
Links?
Sure bestball, this is not 'mainstream'. Over 90% of leagues aren't the FBG 350 bestball or underdog bestball formats. The $2000 main events also have guys like Pacheco going 6.01.
So sure, the leagues your talking about maybe represents 2% of drafts out there. You can use MFL data that sources from hundreds of thousands of drafts and shows otherwise.

So sure, in bestball leagues and $2000 leagues with funky formats, he is going on average between 4.12-5.02.
In the mass majority of redraft leagues that aren't bestball, he is going early 6th. So draft accordingly unless you're in the vast minority who play these $350 or $2000 leagues.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Deamon said:
The $2000 main events also have guys like Pacheco going 6.01.
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To be fair, I’m pretty sure the Pacheco pick is an extreme outlier.

Gabe Davis in the fourth isn’t nearly as uncommon.
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Sure if you're playing bestball in these leagues where wrs are flying so early then you should take him in the 4th if u want him.

But if you look at the thousands of redraft non bestball leagues that aren't these rare 2k or 350 leagues, then it's safe to get him in the 5th. Most people don't play these leagues. So for the 95 percent or so of people who don't, his add is 6.03 so draft accordingly.
 
Deamon said:
Sure if you're playing bestball in these leagues where wrs are flying so early then you should take him in the 4th if u want him.
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I’m not saying to take him there. I’m saying he’s going there.

Even in your thousands of leagues, his 6.xx ADP reflects dozens, if not hundreds of leagues where he was taken in the 4th. Maybe even a few the 3rd.

Also keep in mind that as draft season advances, ADP is a bit less reliable. Check your parameters and make sure you’re looking at the last week, as he’s risen since say June.

There’s always an early and a late. You’re talking about the average.

And IMO if your league is likely to be average and you want Davis, you’d better take him in the 5th or he’s likely to be gone by your 6th pick, depending on where that is.
 
acarey50 said:
while you can get QBs with strong upside like Hurts, Burrows, Kyler, etc. 3-5 rounds later
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But you’re paying up because, while there’s no absolutes in fantasy football, Allen is pretty safe to finish at worst Top 3 (barring injury).

2 of the 3 guys you list have far lower floors (it would be far from shocking if Hurts gets replaced if/when the the passing game struggles) and Murray has fallen apart at the end of the last two seasons. Burrow may have hit his ceiling last year and he also had a few huge games and a lot of stinkers.

I’m generally one of the last in my league to grab a QB so I get your point and agree to some extent but the stigma of taking an early QB is probably overplayed.
 
Dr. Octopus said:
I’m generally one of the last in my league to grab a QB so I get your point and agree to some extent but the stigma of taking an early QB is probably overplayed
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I’ve shifted my thinking to where if an Allen or Mahomes falls far enough because the league gets into a Mexican. Stand-off over QBs, imma jump on it.

Took Mahomes 5.06 the other night. And I haven’t taken a QB before the 9th in years. A funny thing happened - when I popped that balloon, 5 more QB went in the next 2 rounds. I'd rather get a value on Mahomes than get stuck in a run reaching for a QB a round early.

Allen went in the 3rd.
 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dr. Octopus said:
I’m generally one of the last in my league to grab a QB so I get your point and agree to some extent but the stigma of taking an early QB is probably overplayed
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I’ve shifted my thinking to where if an Allen or Mahomes falls far enough because the league gets into a Mexican. Stand-off over QBs, imma jump on it.

Took Mahomes 5.06 the other night. And I haven’t taken a QB before the 9th in years. A funny thing happened - when I popped that balloon, 5 more QB went in the next 2 rounds.

Allen went in the 3rd.
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Agree on Allen. Generally don't take QBs before round 6-7 but if Allen is still there in 3rd round of our local 14 teamer, I think I will jump.

I know it's preseason, BUT that WR group is off the hook good. I think Shakir will be the slot receiver by mid-season. Can't believe they got him in the 5th. Crowder looks like a WR 5 for them at this point.
 
efactor said:
I think Shakir will be the slot receiver by mid-season. Can't believe they got him in the 5th. Crowder looks like a WR 5 for them at this point.
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Reportedly they love McKenzie in the slot. And you can kind of see how BUF treats rookie WRs by Gabe Davis' 1st two seasons, so I'm a little skeptical it won't be McKenzie or Crowder, but it is possible.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
efactor said:
I think Shakir will be the slot receiver by mid-season. Can't believe they got him in the 5th. Crowder looks like a WR 5 for them at this point.
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Reportedly they love McKenzie in the slot. And you can kind of see how BUF treats rookie WRs by Gabe Davis' 1st two seasons, so I'm a little skeptical it won't be McKenzie or Crowder, but it is possible.
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They mentioned in the broadcast today that "short area quickness" was an important factor for McDermott for their slot receiver, which McKenzie obviously has. But man, Shakir just looks too talented to keep of the field. That passing offense is going to be dynamic
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Deamon said:
Sure if you're playing bestball in these leagues where wrs are flying so early then you should take him in the 4th if u want him.
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I’m not saying to take him there. I’m saying he’s going there.

Even in your thousands of leagues, his 6.xx ADP reflects dozens, if not hundreds of leagues where he was taken in the 4th. Maybe even a few the 3rd.

Also keep in mind that as draft season advances, ADP is a bit less reliable. Check your parameters and make sure you’re looking at the last week, as he’s risen since say June.

There’s always an early and a late. You’re talking about the average.

And IMO if your league is likely to be average and you want Davis, you’d better take him in the 5th or he’s likely to be gone by your 6th pick, depending on where that is.
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Yep, and dozens if not hundreds of leagues where he's going in the 8th rounds.


I only looked at drafts after August 15th.


Agree with you on the last bolded point. If you really do want him, and you pick early-mid 5th, you'll have to grab him there because he probably won't make it to the end of the 6th.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dr. Octopus said:
I’m generally one of the last in my league to grab a QB so I get your point and agree to some extent but the stigma of taking an early QB is probably overplayed
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I’ve shifted my thinking to where if an Allen or Mahomes falls far enough because the league gets into a Mexican. Stand-off over QBs, imma jump on it.

Took Mahomes 5.06 the other night. And I haven’t taken a QB before the 9th in years. A funny thing happened - when I popped that balloon, 5 more QB went in the next 2 rounds. I'd rather get a value on Mahomes than get stuck in a run reaching for a QB a round early.

Allen went in the 3rd.
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Yep, I think those stand-offs sometimes go so long, that if you can be the one to burst the bubble and start a QB run, you're in amazing shape. Worst tho is when you burst the bubble and then the run doesn't come, that's the worst haha
 
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