WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (4 Viewers)

[Super King]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year. Josh trusts him. That TD tonight is strong evidence towards that idea. Josh knew where he was and just whipped it at him. That ball was a 40 yard frozen rope (even though it was a 28 yard TD) that Gabe went up and snagged.

 

[Deamon]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

 

[barackdhouse]

Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?

In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.

Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.

No Davis is going in the 4th in lots of formats. In the $350 FBGs drafts he is going at 5.02 on average over 42 drafts over the last 3 days, as early as 3.12 and late as 6.12 as WR23 on average. In the $2000 Main Events, there have been 11 drafts and he is going on average at 4.12. Underdog bestball drafts he is going 4th round consistently. It isn't unique and crazy leagues. It is mainstream leagues all over the place. And yes it is almost prohibitively expensive for him, even though I bet he pays it off.

Agreed… I am warming to the idea of him in the fourth. The third is way too high.

Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?

In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.

Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.

No Davis is going in the 4th in lots of formats. In the $350 FBGs drafts he is going at 5.02 on average over 42 drafts over the last 3 days, as early as 3.12 and late as 6.12 as WR23 on average. In the $2000 Main Events, there have been 11 drafts over the last 3 days and he is going on average at 4.12. Underdog bestball drafts he is going 4th round consistently. It isn't unique and crazy leagues. It is mainstream leagues all over the place. And yes it is almost prohibitively expensive for him, even though I bet he pays it off.

Links?
Sure bestball, this is not 'mainstream'. Over 90% of leagues aren't the FBG 350 bestball or underdog bestball formats. The $2000 main events also have guys like Pacheco going 6.01.
So sure, the leagues your talking about maybe represents 2% of drafts out there. You can use MFL data that sources from hundreds of thousands of drafts and shows otherwise.

So sure, in bestball leagues and $2000 leagues with funky formats, he is going on average between 4.12-5.02.
In the mass majority of redraft leagues that aren't bestball, he is going early 6th. So draft accordingly unless you're in the vast minority who play these $350 or $2000 leagues.

The FFPC data is available on fantasymojo.com and I posted a link in the Gabriel Davis thread but here it is again https://twitter.com/Ship_Chaser/status/1561107702843002885?s=20&t=k0c7Y5HXo8VBGzyyUjGGww

FFPC is hardly an unusual or uncommon format. And Underdog is taking over the industry and that Davis ADP in my tweet is from 10's of thousands of drafts.

*You* may not play those formats but dramatically more people do than you are giving credit for.

 

[barackdhouse]

In July FPC drafts, he averaged 5.04 over 176 drafts. 5.09 in June over 100 drafts. Now firmly in the 4th round in August.

 

[barackdhouse]

I thought MFL ADP data included dynasty startups and therefore skew the data pretty badly. Wasn't aware you could filter it for only redraft.

 

[barackdhouse]

Rotowire lists ADP from several sources and has the following, after filtering for 12 team and PPR:

Fantrax 64.76 - 6.05
ESPN 77.65 - 7.05
MFL 66.79 - 6.07
NFFC 56.78 - 5.09 - this is the one most like FFPC and is generally higher stakes

These are cumulative ADP and on the rotowire site it shows Davis as climbing on all these platforms. IOW this doesn't represent where he is presently going, it just represents the AVERAGE
Draft Position.

I did an FFPC draft last night and he went 4.01.

 

[efactor]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

 

[Deamon]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

 

[Chaka]

I have said this for years: ADP presented by round (6.01, 8.03 etc) is useless in a vacuum. Too many league variables.

It is far better to say that Davis is being drafted as WR33 or whatever. While not perfect, it translates much better to individual leagues.

 

[Deamon]

In July FPC drafts, he averaged 5.04 over 176 drafts. 5.09 in June over 100 drafts. Now firmly in the 4th round in August.

Rotowire lists ADP from several sources and has the following, after filtering for 12 team and PPR:

Fantrax 64.76 - 6.05
ESPN 77.65 - 7.05
MFL 66.79 - 6.07
NFFC 56.78 - 5.09 - this is the one most like FFPC and is generally higher stakes

These are cumulative ADP and on the rotowire site it shows Davis as climbing on all these platforms. IOW this doesn't represent where he is presently going, it just represents the AVERAGE
Draft Position.

I did an FFPC draft last night and he went 4.01.

Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?

In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.

Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.

No Davis is going in the 4th in lots of formats. In the $350 FBGs drafts he is going at 5.02 on average over 42 drafts over the last 3 days, as early as 3.12 and late as 6.12 as WR23 on average. In the $2000 Main Events, there have been 11 drafts and he is going on average at 4.12. Underdog bestball drafts he is going 4th round consistently. It isn't unique and crazy leagues. It is mainstream leagues all over the place. And yes it is almost prohibitively expensive for him, even though I bet he pays it off.

Agreed… I am warming to the idea of him in the fourth. The third is way too high.

Ya I can't get there on him. ADP is around 6.04 looking just at redrafts in the last week, where in the world are you seeing him in round 3?

In those NFFC drafts. He went 3.09 & 4.09 respectively,

I’m out at 3.09

I’m probably in at 4.09

I’m way in as a 6th rounder next weekend in my home league draft.

Ya, like you told me before though, those NFFC drafts are wild and crazy and not near the norm. For the 99% of people reading this thread, he's not going round 3 and 4. Don't scare them into overdrafting him in home leagues lol. That's the exception, not the norm.

No Davis is going in the 4th in lots of formats. In the $350 FBGs drafts he is going at 5.02 on average over 42 drafts over the last 3 days, as early as 3.12 and late as 6.12 as WR23 on average. In the $2000 Main Events, there have been 11 drafts over the last 3 days and he is going on average at 4.12. Underdog bestball drafts he is going 4th round consistently. It isn't unique and crazy leagues. It is mainstream leagues all over the place. And yes it is almost prohibitively expensive for him, even though I bet he pays it off.

Links?
Sure bestball, this is not 'mainstream'. Over 90% of leagues aren't the FBG 350 bestball or underdog bestball formats. The $2000 main events also have guys like Pacheco going 6.01.
So sure, the leagues your talking about maybe represents 2% of drafts out there. You can use MFL data that sources from hundreds of thousands of drafts and shows otherwise.

So sure, in bestball leagues and $2000 leagues with funky formats, he is going on average between 4.12-5.02.
In the mass majority of redraft leagues that aren't bestball, he is going early 6th. So draft accordingly unless you're in the vast minority who play these $350 or $2000 leagues.

The FFPC data is available on fantasymojo.com and I posted a link in the Gabriel Davis thread but here it is again https://twitter.com/Ship_Chaser/status/1561107702843002885?s=20&t=k0c7Y5HXo8VBGzyyUjGGww

FFPC is hardly an unusual or uncommon format. And Underdog is taking over the industry and that Davis ADP in my tweet is from 10's of thousands of drafts.

*You* may not play those formats but dramatically more people do than you are giving credit for.

Ya but define "more than I give credit for" ? I understand hundreds, or thousands play that format, but also that hundreds of thousands don't. It still represents a very small percentage of overall leagues, and again, those big money leagues are extremely typical of wrs going shockingly early as well as hype players going shockingly early. (Ex Pacheco).

But yes your other date makes sense. Average all those other things you sent and he's probably ballpark was going round 7 a month ago and round 6 now. Filtering the mfl and fantasycalculator drafts to only use the last week, and exclude dynasty, etc, he's still sitting about 6.01 in the format the majority plays. So yes, if you're like 99 percent of the world who isn't in the ffpc leagues, then grab him in the 5th if you want him

 

[Chaka]

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Honestly, in that offense I wouldn't be entirely shocked. It's definitely a TD dependent outcome, but that team looks like it's going to score in bunches. Like Greatest Show on Turf numbers.

 

[efactor]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

 

[Deamon]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

 

[Deamon]

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Honestly, in that offense I wouldn't be entirely shocked. It's definitely a TD dependent outcome, but that team looks like it's going to score in bunches. Like Greatest Show on Turf numbers.

Right and even if they put up GSOT numbers, the odds of their wr2 ending the year top 5 are probably very small.

It's hard to quantify the word "shocked" , "entirely shocked" , etc.

In Joe Bryant style, what percentage do you think there is that Gabe Davis ends the season a top 5 fantasy wr?

 

[Deamon]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

What percentage do you give it that he's a top 5 wr this year?

 

[efactor]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

Well, you must not value your life much

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but again, not out the rhelm of possibilites that Davis puts up the 1300/12 mentioned earlier. You were the one who pointed out that would have been top 5 LAST year, but that doesn't mean it would be top 5 in 2022. Taylor was the #1 RB last year, but it was one of the lowest RB 1 seasons ever (I read that somewhere but did not verify) so if Taylor repeats those numbers, he probably wouldn't be RB 1 this year.

As Chaka pointed out, this passing game could be "greatest show on turf" good. Diggs and Davis can both have big seasons.

 

[Chaka]

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Honestly, in that offense I wouldn't be entirely shocked. It's definitely a TD dependent outcome, but that team looks like it's going to score in bunches. Like Greatest Show on Turf numbers.

Right and even if they put up GSOT numbers, the odds of their wr2 ending the year top 5 are probably very small.

It's hard to quantify the word "shocked" , "entirely shocked" , etc.

In Joe Bryant style, what percentage do you think there is that Gabe Davis ends the season a top 5 fantasy wr?

As I said it is a TD dependent outcome. But Holt & Bruce had a season of 80+ catches & 1,400+ yards each. And, very importantly there is no Marshall Faulk in Buffalo.

Moss & Carter had two seasons 1,100+ yard, 11 TD seasons.

But to your last question: between Davis and the field, I'll take the field.

 

[Deamon]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

Well, you must not value your life much

I'm not saying it's going to happen, but again, not out the rhelm of possibilites that Davis puts up the 1300/12 mentioned earlier. You were the one who pointed out that would have been top 5 LAST year, but that doesn't mean it would be top 5 in 2022. Taylor was the #1 RB last year, but it was one of the lowest RB 1 seasons ever (I read that somewhere but did not verify) so if Taylor repeats those numbers, he probably wouldn't be RB 1 this year.

As Chaka pointed out, this passing game could be "greatest show on turf" good. Diggs and Davis can both have big seasons.

I'm not saying he can't / wont have a big year. I'm saying top 5 is not going to happen. Of course it's in the realm of possibilities. It's also in the realm of possibilities that George Pickens ends the year a top 5 wr. Is it as good of a chance as Davis? No. But what percentage do you put it at?

I'm saying to actually PREDICT he has a top 5 season (meaning the poster thinks it's "likely" and probably over a 50 percent chance) is over-hype.

 

[efactor]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

What percentage do you give it that he's a top 5 wr this year?

Well, again, I never said he was going to be top 5. I pointed out that the 1300/12 that you seem to think is impossible is indeed possible and 1300/12 may not put you in the top 5 this year like it did last year depending upon scoring format and amount of receptions.

But if you want a percentage, I'll put on my Kreskin hat (reference aging) and say 10 percent. Not bad for a guy you can grab in the 4th to 6th depending upon your local league. I would give him a higher chance of finishing in the top 5 in that offense with Allen at QB than I would have Deebo finishing top 5 in 2021 with Garoppolo at QB. In fact, I might have bet my life that wouldn't have happened last year and then I wouldn't be here debating this with you right now.

 

[Deamon]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

What percentage do you give it that he's a top 5 wr this year?

Well, again, I never said he was going to be top 5. I pointed out that the 1300/12 that you seem to think is impossible is indeed possible and 1300/12 may not put you in the top 5 this year like it did last year depending upon scoring format and amount of receptions.

But if you want a percentage, I'll put on my Kreskin hat (reference aging) and say 10 percent. Not bad for a guy you can grab in the 4th to 6th depending upon your local league. I would give him a higher chance of finishing in the top 5 in that offense with Allen at QB than I would have Deebo finishing top 5 in 2021 with Garoppolo at QB. In fact, I might have bet my life that wouldn't have happened last year and then I wouldn't be here debating this with you right now.

10% chance that Davis ends the year at 1300+/12+???? Jesus. I'll give you 10 to 1 odds on it and you name your price.

I never said impossible. I think 2%. So yes, I think someone claiming something is actually going to happen when there's a 2% chance of it is over-hype.

 

[Deamon]

FBG currently has him as their WR33 for what it's worth.

Overall	Pos	Player	Team/Bye	Standard ADP	Rank VS ADP
1	WR1	Cooper Kupp	LAR/7	4	+1
2	WR2	Justin Jefferson	MIN/7	5
3	WR3	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN/10	7
4	WR4	Davante Adams	LV/6	12	-5
5	WR5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL/9	14	-4
6	WR6	Stefon Diggs	BUF/7	10	-9
7	WR7	Deebo Samuel	SF/9	15	-10
8	WR8	Tee Higgins	CIN/10	29	+3
9	WR9	Mike Evans	TB/11	24	-3
10	WR10	Tyreek Hill	MIA/11	25	-4
11	WR11	D.J. Moore	CAR/13	34	+2
12	WR12	Keenan Allen	LAC/8	27	-6
13	WR13	Michael Pittman Jr	IND/14	32	-2
14	WR14	A.J. Brown	PHI/7	31	-6
15	WR15	Courtland Sutton	DEN/9	44	+4
16	WR16	Brandin Cooks	HOU/6	51	+4
17	WR17	Mike Williams	LAC/8	35	-15
18	WR18	Allen Robinson	LAR/7	49	-2
19	WR19	Jaylen Waddle	MIA/11	38	-14
20	WR20	Diontae Johnson	PIT/9	45	-8
21	WR21	Chris Godwin	TB/11	56	+1
22	WR22	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET/6	63	+7
23	WR23	Michael Thomas	NO/14	59	+1
24	WR24	Adam Thielen	MIN/7	66	+3
25	WR25	Amari Cooper	CLE/9	69	+5
26	WR26	Terry McLaurin	WAS/14	43	-22
27	WR27	Marquise Brown	ARI/13	54	-12
28	WR28	DK Metcalf	SEA/11	52	-15
29	WR29	JuJu Smith-Schuster	KC/8	65	-3
30	WR30	Darnell Mooney	CHI/14	60	-9
31	WR31	Jerry Jeudy	DEN/9	67	-3
32	WR32	Christian Kirk	JAX/11	93	+22
33	WR33	Gabriel Davis	BUF/7	61	-11

 

[Chaka]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

What percentage do you give it that he's a top 5 wr this year?

Well, again, I never said he was going to be top 5. I pointed out that the 1300/12 that you seem to think is impossible is indeed possible and 1300/12 may not put you in the top 5 this year like it did last year depending upon scoring format and amount of receptions.

But if you want a percentage, I'll put on my Kreskin hat (reference aging) and say 10 percent. Not bad for a guy you can grab in the 4th to 6th depending upon your local league. I would give him a higher chance of finishing in the top 5 in that offense with Allen at QB than I would have Deebo finishing top 5 in 2021 with Garoppolo at QB. In fact, I might have bet my life that wouldn't have happened last year and then I wouldn't be here debating this with you right now.

10% chance that Davis ends the year at 1300+/12+???? Jesus. I'll give you 10 to 1 odds on it and you name your price.

I never said impossible. I think 2%. So yes, I think someone claiming something is actually going to happen when there's a 2% chance of it is over-hype.

I think you're taking efactor's prediction with far more seriousness than he did.

 

[efactor]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

What percentage do you give it that he's a top 5 wr this year?

Well, again, I never said he was going to be top 5. I pointed out that the 1300/12 that you seem to think is impossible is indeed possible and 1300/12 may not put you in the top 5 this year like it did last year depending upon scoring format and amount of receptions.

But if you want a percentage, I'll put on my Kreskin hat (reference aging) and say 10 percent. Not bad for a guy you can grab in the 4th to 6th depending upon your local league. I would give him a higher chance of finishing in the top 5 in that offense with Allen at QB than I would have Deebo finishing top 5 in 2021 with Garoppolo at QB. In fact, I might have bet my life that wouldn't have happened last year and then I wouldn't be here debating this with you right now.

10% chance that Davis ends the year at 1300+/12+???? Jesus. I'll give you 10 to 1 odds on it and you name your price.

I never said impossible. I think 2%. So yes, I think someone claiming something is actually going to happen when there's a 2% chance of it is over-hype.

The poster didn't claim it was absolutely going to happen. He said Davis was going to blow up and threw those numbers out, which isn't crazy talk in that offense with Allen at QB. Not like he said 2000/20

Davis had a very strong finish to the season and his huge playoff game showed he has blow up capibilites every week.

 

[Deamon]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year. Josh trusts him. That TD tonight is strong evidence towards that idea

I think you're taking efactor's prediction with far more seriousness than he did.

Was Super King's prediction, not efactors.

 

[efactor]

Gabe is gonna blow the f*** up this year. I drafted him last year with the expectation of keeping him this year (1 keeper in my main league). 1300+/12+ this year.

And this, ladies and gentlemen, is an example of when the hype train gets too out of control and fogs people's minds.

1300+/12+? That would make him the WR5 last year in the whole league.

But it's within the rhelm of possibilities. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he hit those numbers in that offense with that QB in 17 games

He's had 7 and 6 TDS his first two years on only 35 receptions both seasons as the #3/4 WR. As a full time starter who the coaching staff says will be on the field for 90 percent of the snaps, I don't see 12 TDs as a major reach. Plus, he's got big play capibility, so will have some big yardage games as well.

You wouldn't be shocked if Davis is a top 5 wr in the entire NFL this year?

Not really. Nobody expected Deebo or Chase to be top 5 receivers last year (Chase was in .5 PPR).

Again, in that offense, with that QB, Davis could have a 1300/12 season. Wouldn't surprise me at all with his big play ability and size in the red zone.

Even tho he is the clear wr2 on the team? I like him too but everyone needs to calm down a little, I'd bet my life hes not a top 5 wr this year.

What percentage do you give it that he's a top 5 wr this year?

Well, again, I never said he was going to be top 5. I pointed out that the 1300/12 that you seem to think is impossible is indeed possible and 1300/12 may not put you in the top 5 this year like it did last year depending upon scoring format and amount of receptions.

But if you want a percentage, I'll put on my Kreskin hat (reference aging) and say 10 percent. Not bad for a guy you can grab in the 4th to 6th depending upon your local league. I would give him a higher chance of finishing in the top 5 in that offense with Allen at QB than I would have Deebo finishing top 5 in 2021 with Garoppolo at QB. In fact, I might have bet my life that wouldn't have happened last year and then I wouldn't be here debating this with you right now.

10% chance that Davis ends the year at 1300+/12+???? Jesus. I'll give you 10 to 1 odds on it and you name your price.

I never said impossible. I think 2%. So yes, I think someone claiming something is actually going to happen when there's a 2% chance of it is over-hype.

I think you're taking efactor's prediction with far more seriousness than he did.

I never even predicted that. I just pointed out it wasn't that outrageous and that it was possible it could happen lol

 

[Deamon]

The poster didn't claim it was absolutely going to happen. He said Davis was going to blow up and threw those numbers out, which isn't crazy talk in that offense with Allen at QB. Not like he said 2000/20

Well we'll agree to disagree. I think Gabe Davis finishing with 1300+ and 12+ TDs is crazy talk. Guess we'll see.

 

[Deamon]

I never even predicted that. I just pointed out it wasn't that outrageous and that it was possible it could happen lol

And it's possible Mariota ends the year as this year's QB1. Anything is possible. The jab I made was at someone predicting Gabe would put those numbers up this year which I think the odds are extremely low.

 

[efactor]

FBG currently has him as their WR33 for what it's worth.

Overall	Pos	Player	Team/Bye	Standard ADP	Rank VS ADP
1	WR1	Cooper Kupp	LAR/7	4	+1
2	WR2	Justin Jefferson	MIN/7	5
3	WR3	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN/10	7
4	WR4	Davante Adams	LV/6	12	-5
5	WR5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL/9	14	-4
6	WR6	Stefon Diggs	BUF/7	10	-9
7	WR7	Deebo Samuel	SF/9	15	-10
8	WR8	Tee Higgins	CIN/10	29	+3
9	WR9	Mike Evans	TB/11	24	-3
10	WR10	Tyreek Hill	MIA/11	25	-4
11	WR11	D.J. Moore	CAR/13	34	+2
12	WR12	Keenan Allen	LAC/8	27	-6
13	WR13	Michael Pittman Jr	IND/14	32	-2
14	WR14	A.J. Brown	PHI/7	31	-6
15	WR15	Courtland Sutton	DEN/9	44	+4
16	WR16	Brandin Cooks	HOU/6	51	+4
17	WR17	Mike Williams	LAC/8	35	-15
18	WR18	Allen Robinson	LAR/7	49	-2
19	WR19	Jaylen Waddle	MIA/11	38	-14
20	WR20	Diontae Johnson	PIT/9	45	-8
21	WR21	Chris Godwin	TB/11	56	+1
22	WR22	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET/6	63	+7
23	WR23	Michael Thomas	NO/14	59	+1
24	WR24	Adam Thielen	MIN/7	66	+3
25	WR25	Amari Cooper	CLE/9	69	+5
26	WR26	Terry McLaurin	WAS/14	43	-22
27	WR27	Marquise Brown	ARI/13	54	-12
28	WR28	DK Metcalf	SEA/11	52	-15
29	WR29	JuJu Smith-Schuster	KC/8	65	-3
30	WR30	Darnell Mooney	CHI/14	60	-9
31	WR31	Jerry Jeudy	DEN/9	67	-3
32	WR32	Christian Kirk	JAX/11	93	+22
33	WR33	Gabriel Davis	BUF/7	61	-11

And I think this is way off on Davis. After Robinson, I would take Davis over the rest of this list. The exception would be Godwin if he is healthy.

 

[Chaka]

FBG currently has him as their WR33 for what it's worth.

Overall	Pos	Player	Team/Bye	Standard ADP	Rank VS ADP
1	WR1	Cooper Kupp	LAR/7	4	+1
2	WR2	Justin Jefferson	MIN/7	5
3	WR3	Ja'Marr Chase	CIN/10	7
4	WR4	Davante Adams	LV/6	12	-5
5	WR5	CeeDee Lamb	DAL/9	14	-4
6	WR6	Stefon Diggs	BUF/7	10	-9
7	WR7	Deebo Samuel	SF/9	15	-10
8	WR8	Tee Higgins	CIN/10	29	+3
9	WR9	Mike Evans	TB/11	24	-3
10	WR10	Tyreek Hill	MIA/11	25	-4
11	WR11	D.J. Moore	CAR/13	34	+2
12	WR12	Keenan Allen	LAC/8	27	-6
13	WR13	Michael Pittman Jr	IND/14	32	-2
14	WR14	A.J. Brown	PHI/7	31	-6
15	WR15	Courtland Sutton	DEN/9	44	+4
16	WR16	Brandin Cooks	HOU/6	51	+4
17	WR17	Mike Williams	LAC/8	35	-15
18	WR18	Allen Robinson	LAR/7	49	-2
19	WR19	Jaylen Waddle	MIA/11	38	-14
20	WR20	Diontae Johnson	PIT/9	45	-8
21	WR21	Chris Godwin	TB/11	56	+1
22	WR22	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET/6	63	+7
23	WR23	Michael Thomas	NO/14	59	+1
24	WR24	Adam Thielen	MIN/7	66	+3
25	WR25	Amari Cooper	CLE/9	69	+5
26	WR26	Terry McLaurin	WAS/14	43	-22
27	WR27	Marquise Brown	ARI/13	54	-12
28	WR28	DK Metcalf	SEA/11	52	-15
29	WR29	JuJu Smith-Schuster	KC/8	65	-3
30	WR30	Darnell Mooney	CHI/14	60	-9
31	WR31	Jerry Jeudy	DEN/9	67	-3
32	WR32	Christian Kirk	JAX/11	93	+22
33	WR33	Gabriel Davis	BUF/7	61	-11

I could see taking Davis as high as 25-26 on that list

And Amari is going to early IMO

 

[efactor]

I never even predicted that. I just pointed out it wasn't that outrageous and that it was possible it could happen lol

And it's possible Mariota ends the year as this year's QB1. Anything is possible. The jab I made was at someone predicting Gabe would put those numbers up this year which I think the odds are extremely low.

Now you're just being foolish to try to make your point. Anything is not possible.

Now if you said Mariota could end up being a top 15 FF QB, that would be possible

 

[Deamon]

I could see taking Davis as high as 25-26 on that list

And Amari is going to early IMO

Agree with you there on both points. I put Davis about there too.

 

[Deamon]

Now you're just being foolish to try to make your point. Anything is not possible.

Now if you said Mariota could end up being a top 15 FF QB, that would be possible

Both are extremely unlikely to happen. If you were to put money down on Gabe Davis being a top 5 WR this year, you'd be making a LOT of money.

 

[Deamon]

I could see taking Davis as high as 25-26 on that list

WR25 will typically come off the board around pick 58 (5.10) which makes his 6.01 ADP seem about right to you.

 

[Chaka]

I could see taking Davis as high as 25-26 on that list

WR25 will typically come off the board around pick 58 (5.10) which makes his 6.01 ADP seem about right to you.

Probably not in a SF league like mine. But close enough for government work.

 

[Deamon]

I could see taking Davis as high as 25-26 on that list

WR25 will typically come off the board around pick 58 (5.10) which makes his 6.01 ADP seem about right to you.

Probably not in a SF league like mine. But close enough for government work.

Ah, forgot you were in SF

 

[candian fantasy guy]

Would saying top 10 disarm you a little? Davis had upside. He does seem to have a nose for the end zone, so an increase in opportunities will likely increase those chances. I’m a FF player that believes in getting as many players as possible from elite offensive teams. Davis fits that mold. I like him over many around his ADP.

Mooney or Davis?

 

[Deamon]

Would saying top 10 disarm you a little? Davis had upside. He does seem to have a nose for the end zone, so an increase in opportunities will likely increase those chances. I’m a FF player that believes in getting as many players as possible from elite offensive teams. Davis fits that mold. I like him over many around his ADP.

Mooney or Davis?

Top 10 is still extremely unlikely, but sure I'll bump the odds of him finishing top 10 to 5%.

I like Davis over Mooney.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

After Robinson, I would take Davis over the rest of this list. The exception would be Godwin if he is healthy.

100% agree.

 

[efactor]

Mooney or Davis?

I like them both but agree that I like the WRs from elite offenses. I would go with Davis because they will be in the red/green zone way more than the Bears

 

[Aznflyer14]

The poster didn't claim it was absolutely going to happen. He said Davis was going to blow up and threw those numbers out, which isn't crazy talk in that offense with Allen at QB. Not like he said 2000/20

Well we'll agree to disagree. I think Gabe Davis finishing with 1300+ and 12+ TDs is crazy talk. Guess we'll see.

Regardless, Buffalo Bills' offense is highly potent and there's room for everyone to eat including Davis.

 

[Deamon]

The poster didn't claim it was absolutely going to happen. He said Davis was going to blow up and threw those numbers out, which isn't crazy talk in that offense with Allen at QB. Not like he said 2000/20

Well we'll agree to disagree. I think Gabe Davis finishing with 1300+ and 12+ TDs is crazy talk. Guess we'll see.

Regardless, Buffalo Bills' offense is highly potent and there's room for everyone to eat including Davis.

I agree

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Well we'll agree to disagree. I think Gabe Davis finishing with 1300+ and 12+ TDs is crazy talk. Guess we'll see.

I wouldn’t say it’s “crazy talk” but it’s surely even a bit outside a legit ceiling. Those seasons aren’t easy. Obviously his talent, the opportunity, and a potential prolific offense raises the ceiling pretty high as well though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I like Davis over Mooney

Same. Gimme the WR2 in a potent, pass-1st, run a ton of plays offense with an alpha WR to draw top coverage over the WR1 in what will likely be a middling offense.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wouldn’t say it’s “crazy talk” but it’s surely even a bit outside a legit ceiling. Those seasons aren’t easy. Obviously his talent, the opportunity, and a potential prolific offense raises the ceiling pretty high as well though.

Agreed. The kid does have a nose for the end zone though, & he & Allen seem to be on the same page on those improv plays. The 12 TDs would be the least surprising if it happened. I’d guess more like an 85/850 type season ti go with it.

Again, I’m thinking ceiling. I’ve probably guessed different numbers earlier in this topic.

 

[efactor]

I wouldn’t say it’s “crazy talk” but it’s surely even a bit outside a legit ceiling. Those seasons aren’t easy. Obviously his talent, the opportunity, and a potential prolific offense raises the ceiling pretty high as well though.

Agreed. The kid does have a nose for the end zone though, & he & Allen seem to be on the same page on those improv plays. The 12 TDs would be the least surprising if it happened. I’d guess more like an 85/850 type season ti go with it.

Again, I’m thinking ceiling. I’ve probably guessed different numbers earlier in this topic.

Really? 85/850 With his big play ability? 10 YPC kind of guy?

If he catches 85 passes, I would say he's closer to the 1300 yards the earlier poster predicted than 850 yards

I know it's a small sample size over his first two years with 70 catches total, but he averaged just short of 16.5 YPC. Just don't see him dropping to the 10 YPC range

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I wouldn’t say it’s “crazy talk” but it’s surely even a bit outside a legit ceiling. Those seasons aren’t easy. Obviously his talent, the opportunity, and a potential prolific offense raises the ceiling pretty high as well though.

Agreed. The kid does have a nose for the end zone though, & he & Allen seem to be on the same page on those improv plays. The 12 TDs would be the least surprising if it happened. I’d guess more like an 85/850 type season ti go with it.

Again, I’m thinking ceiling. I’ve probably guessed different numbers earlier in this topic.

Really? With his big play ability? 10 YPC kind of guy?

If he catches 85 passes, I would say he's closer to the 1300 yards the earlier poster predicted than 850 yards

Shhh. I’m trying not to jinx it.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I wouldn’t say it’s “crazy talk” but it’s surely even a bit outside a legit ceiling. Those seasons aren’t easy. Obviously his talent, the opportunity, and a potential prolific offense raises the ceiling pretty high as well though.

Agreed. The kid does have a nose for the end zone though, & he & Allen seem to be on the same page on those improv plays. The 12 TDs would be the least surprising if it happened. I’d guess more like an 85/850 type season ti go with it.

Again, I’m thinking ceiling. I’ve probably guessed different numbers earlier in this topic.

Yes I think 12 TDs is more likely than 1,300 yards but I wouldn’t project 12 at this point.

 

[efactor]

I wouldn’t say it’s “crazy talk” but it’s surely even a bit outside a legit ceiling. Those seasons aren’t easy. Obviously his talent, the opportunity, and a potential prolific offense raises the ceiling pretty high as well though.

Agreed. The kid does have a nose for the end zone though, & he & Allen seem to be on the same page on those improv plays. The 12 TDs would be the least surprising if it happened. I’d guess more like an 85/850 type season ti go with it.

Again, I’m thinking ceiling. I’ve probably guessed different numbers earlier in this topic.

Yes I think 12 TDs is more likely than 1,300 yards but I wouldn’t project 12 at this point.

I agree that 12 TDs is more likely than 1300 yards, BUT if he avoids injury and plays all 17 games, and averages 1.5 yards less a catch than his first two years in the league, he needs to average 5 catches a games to hit that number. I just don't see what is so outlandish about that in this offense.

I love the upside of this guy especially going in the 5th and 6th rounds.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I love the upside of this guy especially going in the 5th and 6th rounds.

I draft Sunday. If I can have him in the 5th I’ll be absolutely thrilled. I want pieces of that passing game.

 

[efactor]

I love the upside of this guy especially going in the 5th and 6th rounds.

I draft Sunday. If I can have him in the 5th I’ll be absolutely thrilled. I want pieces of that passing game.

Same. Unfortunatly, in my local league, I play with a guy who has a Davis man-crush as well. Will be interesting how our draft positions end up.