BigJim®
Footballguy
This. All of this. I wouldn’t consider 2.01 if offered to me. No 2nd tier WR is falling into that situation, with that QB.
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WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So back to my earlier point about not taking 2 late 2022 1sts for Davis. If I’m making that deal, I’m theoretically trying to maximize my chances of hitting on a prospect by having 2 shots at it. So basically, I’m hoping one of those two becomes….Gabe Davis? Or better?
If offered 2022 1.07 & 1.10, I would politely reject without a counter.
Maybe I’m way out in left field with this, but I’d rather ride out my investment & see if I strike gold, than try to force the issue by taking two 2nd/3rd tier WR prospects and hoping one becomes a WR1.
Bird in the hand > 2 in the bush.
rockaction
Footballguy
He's finished outside the top fifty twice. He was WR60 last year in PPR. He's not a bird in the hand.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s irrelevant though. He’s projected to be better than he was now that he has a starting job, right?
Seems you didn’t finish your sentence. “He’s finished outside the top fifty twice because he was the 4th WR, first as a rookie. Then as a sophomore when they were “going for It” and brought in Sanders, relegating Davis to the 4th WR role.” Is what you should have said.
Context is important. He is a bird In the hand.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I'm not knocking the guy. He is what he is, which is a middling-to-decently athletic, tall receiver, and I expect him to have success in Buffalo this year.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
To be fair anyone using a first round pick is looking for much better than what Davis has done so far. He's set up for success and has shown flashes but let's not anoint him yet.
I guess we have different definitions of bird in the hand. He hasn't done it yet so not yet a bird in the hand. He might be nibbling feed out of your hand and close to stepping on your fingers but he isn't there yet.
Projections don't = done it. I agree he has a much better projected role at this point but that doesn't mean it's a done deal.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
BigJim®
Footballguy
I don't expect to be in that position since I've not had a single person reach out to me asking about Davis in my league. That said, I'd probably accept that offer. Whether I'm doing it to await 2 birds in a bush... I feel like I could leverage perceived values of those draft picks even before they become birds (or not). It's a lot of value flexibility.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes!
I hope y’all know I’m just having fun here. None of this is life of death, and I certainly don’t expect anyone to believe that I’m personally setting Davis’ market value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
this is where it is at for me. Whether or not I think the players obtained with those picks are better than Davis or not is really irrelevant at this point. The perceived value of two 1st round picks is huge this time of year and will only get bigger. From purely an asset point of view the 2 firsts is likely the much better value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Nope, it's not life or death. I'm also in it for fun and to get better at this game. I can certainly be wrong.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t think anyone would argue that the pure value of the 2 picks is > Gabe Davis.
also worth mentioning that I’m also emotionally invested in Gabriel Davis at this point. He’s dreamy.
I know you said you wouldn't give up Davis for two 2022 firsts........would you give up those two 2022 firsts for him?I don’t think anyone would argue that the pure value of the 2 picks is > Gabe Davis.
also worth mentioning that I’m also emotionally invested in Gabriel Davis at this point. He’s dreamy.
......you know, because he is dreamy and all...haha
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This is just really baffling. Taking two “2nd/3rd tier WR prospects?” No, that’s what Gabriel Davis was (is?). 1.07 lands you a likely 1st round WR this year (in no particular order…Wilson, London, Burks, Williams, Olave) or the 3rd RB off the board. 1.10 gets you something not too dissimilar, and a player that will have far more draft capital that Gabriel Davis.
Yeah, I’m rolling heavily in the favor of the two picks when comparing to Davis, who is the clear #2 on his team. The problem with Davis is that if, in his 3rd year, he puts up 60-800-6, his value absolutely plummets relative to where it is now. Those 1st round WRs won’t….not after year 1 at least.
(I own Davis in about half my leagues, and hope that he breaks out.)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s a very fair question. My answer is no, absolutely not; what, are you insane?
I got Davis as a balancing piece dealing Mike Evans (Evans + 2022 early 1st for Davis, 2023 mid-1st, 2023 late 1st, 2023 mid 2nd)
For that price, I love him more than a fat kid loves ice cream.
I wouldn’t be buying Evans for 2x 2022 1sts. I might buy evans for 1x 2022 1st if it’s later than say, 1.04
i would be unlikely to spend a 2023 1st for him.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
First, I’ll say I don’t completely disagree, and some of my posts are a little schtick-y. I’m just having fun in here. I love Davis, and I’m not getting offered 2x 1sts to put this to the test, and if I did get such an offer I’d probably smash accept like any rational human.
That said, to continue the devil’s advocate, 2022 is a wonky draft, devoid of QB prospects, unless “tiny hands” Pickett goes to a team in desperate need, and even then, that’s 1 QB in the 1st round before the 7th pick. That leaves you the 5th or 6th best WR, which isn’t awesome in what I see as a pretty weak draft class. 2021 cleaned out the college ranks pretty good.
and the flip side is if he puts up an 80/1000/10 season his value skyrockets. Diggs turns 29 in November, so….maybe there’s more for Davis down the road.
You & me both my friend.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
uts away anointing oils and ceremonial robes:::
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And it keeps the conversation moving in a positive direction, which I also glean info from. Win-win.
rockaction
Footballguy
And it keeps the conversation moving in a positive direction, which I also glean info from. Win-win.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Yeah, I have to say the disappointment in not receiving obscene offers for Davis is counte3rbalanced for me with gratitude I can hold him if he becomes what I see as possible.... from a 4th round rookie flier.I don’t think anyone would argue that the pure value of the 2 picks is > Gabe Davis.
also worth mentioning that I’m also emotionally invested in Gabriel Davis at this point. He’s dreamy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s arguably the most satisfying thing in dynasty - getting someone on the cheaP & profiting immensely.
Of course it rarely happens because if they do break out in a big way, now they’re a “foundational player” you won’t want to trade away.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I want to publicly apologize to Rock and to everyone else on the board for mucking up this thread. It is 100% on me and not him. He reached out to me personally and I responded with a full-throated apology. @rockactionif you haven't read it yet, I assure you it is a mature and friendly response. And thank you for reaching out to me in a very thoughtful way.
I don't wanna make a bigger thing out of this (too late) but my cognitive dissonance that I allowed myself to become triggered by had everything to do with the way we engage in dialogue on here, and almost nothing to do with Davis or FF.
Which is of course the only thing we should be talking about.
So again, sorry to everyone and I will try to do better.
I don't wanna make a bigger thing out of this (too late) but my cognitive dissonance that I allowed myself to become triggered by had everything to do with the way we engage in dialogue on here, and almost nothing to do with Davis or FF.
Which is of course the only thing we should be talking about.
So again, sorry to everyone and I will try to do better.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I am buying Davis were ever I can.
Not to hijack but.......Lazard is on there? Available in a lot of leagues. Were we he go in upcomin drafts?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He is right at the threshold minimum in this list with 15 RZ targets during that time. But yeah with Adams out the door it is definitely worth noting.
rockaction
Footballguy
I just want to chime in and say that barackdhouse did indeed PM me, and I have responded via PM. I can assure you that barack was as gracious in correspondence as he seems on the board at almost all times.
I also have to apologize. I must have missed the table and article, because normally I would directly address any evidence like that. So I have to understand where barack was coming from when he got upset. If one is posting evidence and the other person is still engaging, how can that other person not engage the evidence if he was looking right at it. That is where a feeling of misrepresentation can come into play.
So I've responded and apologized also. I hope we can move on in this thread and that we have new understandings moving forward. I value barackdhouse's contributions to the board greatly, and hope that everyone understands that. Not everybody gets to make a second penny doing this, and it's impressive if you ask me.
I hope this takes care of it for any party that was concerned about the direction the thread took.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yep. Hindery has him equal to a late 1st and so do I. I have said late 1st/early 2nd all along.
BTW good new direction to go here is to talk about Crowder, right? I also said all along they would be smart to sign someone and/or to draft someone that represents aiming higher than Sanders or Beasley. I think Crowder can be a much better Beasley (mostly in that he can be deadly after the catch). I think Davis has the outside spot across from Diggs locked down unless one and only one thing happens. They draft a stud high. That could absolutely happen which I why my theme all along has been temper our expectations. I think he is a mid WR3 with incredible upside. I think it is more likely they do draft a couple WRs a little bit later who get a chance to develop and earn snaps but not a depth chart changer. Those are my rose colored glasses.
But, some of you are plugged into the Jets and maybe you have a different insight into Crowder. Obviously if he is really good as I think he is then Davis could suffer from it.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If someone offered me pick 7 or 8 this year I'm not sure I take it. Probably not.
A 2023 1st from a non playoff looking team I would take
A 2023 1st from a non playoff looking team I would take
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Crowder is a nice pickup - I said as much in the Bills topic. That said, at 29 he’s definitely lost a step - he’d lost a step before he left WAS & went to NYJ.
I don’t see him as any threat to Davis, and IMO that, and the Isaiah McKenzie signing (another slot guy) signals that they won’t be adding a WR in the early rounds. I still expect them to add depth at the position, because a team needs more than 4 on the roster.
At this point I’d be shocked if Davis wasn’t cemented as the Y across from Diggs. (Z? Whatever. Opposite side of the field)
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think there's going to be 4-6 WRs at 2.01 that could/should/would have better career upside than Davis.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think you're right. If they draft a stud high, all bets are off, but it doesn't seem like they will. I'm not sure. People have dubbed the race for wide receivers an "arms race" of sort, so one never knows, and I don't think Buffalo will tip their hand like Urban Meyer did last year in Jacksonville when GMs of another late-round pick had the jitters that an RB would go in the first, which did happen because, well, Urban Meyer.
But you're right about Crowder likely operating from the slot, leaving Davis and Diggs wide. I'm not sure if Diggs plays X or Z, though I'm guessing X. If that's the case, Davis won't face press coverage and can use his above-average speed (for his height) to do that which we hope he'll do.
Crowder averages ninety targets a year for his career, or about six per game. With the Jets, he averaged about seven a game. Beasley averaged about 106 targets per year the three years he was in Buffalo, at a clip of about 6.5 per game, so you're not likely going to see too much of a drop-off in terms of slot targets. Those targets that we thought that Beasley was vacating (yet targets are earned) will likely be absorbed by Crowder.
The question or narrative surrounding Crowder will be can he stay healthy, but that question is overdone. He's never been a picture of durability, but he does average about the league average for receivers. He had seasons of 16, 12, and then 12 for the Jets. So he's missed nine games over three years, which isn't actually bad. At all.
And he's been good, playing with some bad or rookie QBs in his time. His catch rate isn't extraordinary, but one imagines that will tighten up with Josh Allen like it did with Zach Wilson (it did, believe it or not. Massive improvement in catch rate over Darnold) and that Crowder will be an effective weapon. But Davis's real competition will come from Diggs on the outside.
That's how I see it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Which ones, specifically?
I’m skeptical - in particular because of how I view this class, and in part because WR are so QB-dependent.
But I’m interested in hearing your choices, and, related follow-up: would you personally trade Gabe Davis for that 2.01 pick as a result?
Read my post about route runners, there's some absolute gems in this class who will be available in the 2nd round.
I can't name names because draft capital has such a massive impact on rookie draft rankings, but if one of the guys I like is available at 2.01 I would jump all over the opportunity to flip Davis for one of them.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure about that - 29 isn't that old. He has some really long catch and runs his first season as a Jet. Last season he was banged up a lot and Wilson struggled for most of the season. He's a better version of Beasley so he is a threat for targets. Surely not a death knell - but it shouldn't be totally dismissed as "nothing".
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Out of the slot, I think he takes Beasley's targets - not Davis'. And I suspect he & McKensie will be competing for those targets.
And I'm not saying to take the man out in the field and shoot him like Old Yeller, just that he's not as spry as when he was with WAS. I had him rostered for years and watched a lot of his play. I am actually a fan - I agree he's better than Beasley at this point, just not quite as good as he used to be.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well that's extremely vague.
So would you, right now this minute, take 2.01 for Gabe Davis?
BigJim®
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Yes he will take Beasley's targets but weren't Davis owners hoping Beasely would be released so that some of those targets would now go to Davis? The bottom line is that there will be another talented pass catcher on the field.
I'm not going to go back and forth with you - so you can have the last word on it, but as some one that watches every Jets game the notion that Crowder lost a step between his time in Washington and New York is just not true. He was by far their best weapon in 2020 and would have had a huge season if Darnold wasn't Darnold.
I own Davis in 2 leagues now but false narratives aren't going to make him have a magical season - his talent and the Bills scheme either will or wont - so we should all have correct information. Crowder is 29 which is not old for a WR and he hasn't lost a step yet.
Before the NFL draft? No. I only want that pick if one of my guys is available when it's OTC or if there are multiple guys I like and x number of picks between.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Mostly Sanders retiring was the big hurdle.
Not presenting a false narrative. We have our opinions about Crowder. I think he was better when he was younger, & apparently you don't. Not even a "last word" thing - just a difference of opinion.
Regardless, I don't see Davis impacted by the Sanders signing any more than the McKenzie signing. From what I've read, they'll likely share time in the slot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Since it's all a hypothetical, no it isn't. His value is >2.01 for people who own him and <2.01 for people who want him. The actual value is that mythical range where an actual trade gets made.
Full disclosure, I own zero shares of Davis. I sold them all before the 2021 season and I don't believe his actual tradeable value has stretched into the 1st round of rookie picks.
