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WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Boone22 said:
I’m not sure if you are agreeing with me, disagreeing, or correcting me 😀 but yes maybe I shoulda said Knox is the Redzone target as opposed to goal line TDs.  
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No. Gabriel Davis has 18 TDs and 12 of them are in the red zone. Not Knox. I don't disagree that Knox is a weapon they will continue to use though. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
no, it doesn’t. Most of us have been posting his career numbers and talking about an ascending 22 y/o who’s scored at a prolific rate over his 2 year career & is likely in line for a significant target share increase.

if you think that’s “recency bias” then you either weren’t reading the responses & are knee-jerk assuming everyone is high on him after his 4-TD game, or you don’t understand what recency bias is. 

obviously. Or you would have seen him step into a more relevant role when Sanders went down. 

he’s 22 years old and has 18 TDs already, despite only having started a handful of games as the 4th WR.

The “2 rookie pick” discussion is a thought experiment & was proposed purely as a hypothetical. Again, actually reading through the topic instead of assuming things would have helped here. 

no one here has based any analysis of Davis off of that one game. In fact, many of us have removed that 1 game from our analysis of his value in order to avoid unfairly skewing it with recency bias. 

Knox hasn’t stolen anything from him. His stats bear this out. This is hardly an either/or. 

no, you actually don’t. You see people questioning whether to buy high, and attempt to determine what his actual value is. Most of us discussing his value *already own him* and some of us are wondering what a good sell high is. 

If you’d taken the time to actually read what people have posted the last few pages, you’d know the answer to that.  As mentioned, I explicitly *did not include* his 4-TD/200 yard game (or his other post season game)  in my evaluation of his first 2 seasons.

I suggest going back a few pages so you can assume less & actually get in on the discussion at hand - it’s been an interesting one. 
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Look.  I don’t have the energy for this.  I did read the thread and give my opinion on the situation.  Either you are missing my points or are purposefully twisting my words.  Obviously you don’t agree.  That’s fine.  I hope if you do decide to sell him you find someone willing to meet your price. Conversely if you hold I hope he works out for you.   As a non-owner I’m not invested so I don’t really care all that much.  I just strongly believe that for the price people are discussing in this thread… whether it’s one or two first round picks, I personally have other targets that I’d prefer to go after who I see as safer bets for the projected costs I see being discussed in this thread.  
 

 
Davis is one of those guys who is going to be difficult to trade. Owners are going to want a 1st & buyers aren’t going to pay it (at least this one wouldn’t…no way). You can probably find buyers for a 2nd, but the vast majority of owners would rather hold & see what they have.

 
Boone22 said:
Look.  I don’t have the energy for this.  I did read the thread and give my opinion on the situation.  Either you are missing my points or are purposefully twisting my words.  Obviously you don’t agree.  That’s fine.  I hope if you do decide to sell him you find someone willing to meet your price. Conversely if you hold I hope he works out for you.   As a non-owner I’m not invested so I don’t really care all that much.  I just strongly believe that for the price people are discussing in this thread… whether it’s one or two first round picks, I personally have other targets that I’d prefer to go after who I see as safer bets for the projected costs I see being discussed in this thread.  
 
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I literally quoted every part of your post & addressed the points in turn. How could I possibly be “deliberately misinterpreting” anything? 

You came in fast & lose projecting something no one was arguing.and now you’re *still* missing the point that his value was being discussed in hypotheticals. No one is saying to pay 2 firsts for him. Stop making straw man arguments.

 
Football Jones said:
Davis is one of those guys who is going to be difficult to trade. Owners are going to want a 1st & buyers aren’t going to pay it (at least this one wouldn’t…no way). You can probably find buyers for a 2nd, but the vast majority of owners would rather hold & see what they have.
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At least this year, sure. When things clear up he should be plenty valuable.

i won’t sell for a 2nd. I wouldn’t sell for a late 1st either. Again, who am I gonna get for a late 2022 first that has more upside than Davis? 

 
barackdhouse said:
No. Gabriel Davis has 18 TDs and 12 of them are in the endzone. Not Knox. I don't disagree that Knox is a weapon they will continue to use though. 
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Where were the other six?  What's the trick to getting a TD without being in the endzone?  I want to get my players to do that type of thing.  It should help on the scoresheet.  hahahah

 
Gally said:
Where were the other six?  What's the trick to getting a TD without being in the endzone?  I want to get my players to do that type of thing.  It should help on the scoresheet.  hahahah
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haha oh #### yeah redzone not endzone. that would be quite the trick.

 
Gally said:
Where were the other six?  What's the trick to getting a TD without being in the endzone?  I want to get my players to do that type of thing.  It should help on the scoresheet.  hahahah
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And we all thought the refs were bad but did you see the game where they just showed up drunk and said #### it it's a TD let's get out of here and go to the pub.

 
zamboni said:
Given that this past game was the last we'll see of Buffalo before the season starts, no doubt most folks and owners will be laser focused on Davis's monster game.  It remains to be seen whether this is a harbinger of things to come or if it was just a result of him just having one of those incredible performances with Allen at the top of his game and defenses rolling coverage towards Diggs. No one knows, but it could work to the advantage of owners if you find another owner(s) who believes the former. To me, it's probably somewhere in the middle, as I think Diggs is young and productive enough to remain Josh's main guy.

March/April will indeed be very telling though, as Sanders and probably Beasley will be gone. Have to think the Bills will want to load up even more coming off that heartbreaker, so a high quality addition could indeed cap Davis's value.  
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I’m not sure Beasley will be gone. Allen seems to like him.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I agree. And I see the #2 WR in BUF as being starter worthy in FF  Upside Flex player at worst.

Some might disagree. I’m a hold. 
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I agree with you. I think Davis will be startable most of next year. It’s still going to be a high powered offense and he’ll be the clear #2 WR (though some weeks Knox may be the #2 receiving option based on matchup).

 
BigJim® said:
So the gist of the question is, "If he had not done something historically unprecedented, would you you foolish people still consider him a potentially special player?" Do I have that right? 
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Did he stutter when he asked the question?

It's a fair question.  Guys have had career games and even brief stretches of greatness only to disappear.  I don't happen to think Davis is the next Travis Fulgham, but there is no reason to be sarcastic about it.

 
He is in a good position to be successful. The question for me is who does Buffalo bring in? I doubt they sit on their hands as this team probably is still wondering how they are not playing in the Super Bowl. 

 
King of the Jungle said:
He is in a good position to be successful. The question for me is who does Buffalo bring in? I doubt they sit on their hands as this team probably is still wondering how they are not playing in the Super Bowl. 
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They have to bring in receivers. Beasley & Sanders combined age is like, infinity. 

 
King of the Jungle said:
He is in a good position to be successful. The question for me is who does Buffalo bring in? I doubt they sit on their hands as this team probably is still wondering how they are not playing in the Super Bowl. 
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One would hope Sanders is gone.  He is getting on in age but, as a veteran, he is one guy that could command the ball.

They have Diggs, Davis, Knox and Beasley in the slot.  Not a bad bunch.  They might add depth but a football team has so many positions of need it probably won't be a priority.  I'm high on Davis with Sanders out to pasture.

 
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DropKick said:
Did he stutter when he asked the question?

It's a fair question.  Guys have had career games and even brief stretches of greatness only to disappear.  I don't happen to think Davis is the next Travis Fulgham, but there is no reason to be sarcastic about it.
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Agree to disagree

 
King of the Jungle said:
He is in a good position to be successful. The question for me is who does Buffalo bring in? I doubt they sit on their hands as this team probably is still wondering how they are not playing in the Super Bowl. 
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Yeah. My base case is that both Beasley and Sanders are gone but they would have to add another weapon. Hoping it is a 3rd or later rookie type.

 
BigJim® said:
LOL, ok. Maybe you should start by listing the guys who had 200 yards and 4 TDs in a playoff game and then "disappeared." I'll stand by. 
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So your big distinction is this was a play-off game?  That is somehow different from a guy blowing up the first week of the season?  Doug Williams threw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs in one quarter in the Super Bowl.   Done a year later.  Marvin Jones once caught 4TDs in a game and finished the season with 8.  One game can be an outliar.  

And, incidentally, I'm not saying Davis will or won't be successful.  i was just saying you shouldn't be so rude to people.

You could always apologize.  I'll stand by.

 
DropKick said:
So your big distinction is this was a play-off game?  That is somehow different from a guy blowing up the first week of the season?  Doug Williams threw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs in one quarter in the Super Bowl.   Done a year later.  Marvin Jones once caught 4TDs in a game and finished the season with 8.  One game can be an outliar.  

And, incidentally, I'm not saying Davis will or won't be successful.  i was just saying you shouldn't be so rude to people.

You could always apologize.  I'll stand by.
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Not sure what the argument is going on here.  I didnt read it all.

However, not a bad question.  What 22 year old WR dropped 200/4 in a playoff game then vanished.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Not sure what the argument is going on here.  I didnt read it all.

However, not a bad question.  What 22 year old WR dropped 200/4 in a playoff game then vanished.
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What 22 yr old WR dropped a 200/4 and then became a stud?

ETA:  I am guessing there is nobody on either side of this question.

 
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DropKick said:
So your big distinction is this was a play-off game?  That is somehow different from a guy blowing up the first week of the season?  Doug Williams threw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs in one quarter in the Super Bowl.   Done a year later.  Marvin Jones once caught 4TDs in a game and finished the season with 8.  One game can be an outliar.  

And, incidentally, I'm not saying Davis will or won't be successful.  i was just saying you shouldn't be so rude to people.

You could always apologize.  I'll stand by.
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Unless I'm mistaken, Doug Williams was 34 years old. Marvin Jones - much better comparison... but would you say he "disappeared"? He has had 9+ TDs 44% of his career. A person should be so lucky drafting 1.11/1.12. 

I think you are ignoring context. No one is saying Davis is the next Randy Moss. There is legitimate debate over whether he is as valuable as what I'd view most years (moreso in 2022) as a bird in the bush 1.11/1.12. Would I value Gabe Davis in this area absent the game? Of course not. But should we then pretend there's no elephant in the room when there is quite obviously an elephant in the room? For what purpose? It's an extension of ignore the long run logic. Moreover, yes I absolutely believe playoff performance matters. Do you think the front office is going into the offseason trying to figure out how to solve that darn #2 WR problem, or re-evaluating the importance of re-signing Emmanuel Sanders? Should a FF owner consider he's just 22 years old and has an unprecedented notch in his belt on a high octane offense when comparing him to a bird in the bush? I think so.

Listen, we clearly got off on the wrong foot due to my tone, and for that I do apologize. I'm not going to apologize for dismissing a suggestion we should ignore actual facts in estimating the upside of a player.

 
BigJim® said:
Unless I'm mistaken, Doug Williams was 34 years old. Marvin Jones - much better comparison... but would you say he "disappeared"? He has had 9+ TDs 44% of his career. A person should be so lucky drafting 1.11/1.12. 

I think you are ignoring context. No one is saying Davis is the next Randy Moss. There is legitimate debate over whether he is as valuable as what I'd view most years (moreso in 2022) as a bird in the bush 1.11/1.12. Would I value Gabe Davis in this area absent the game? Of course not. But should we then pretend there's no elephant in the room when there is quite obviously an elephant in the room? For what purpose? It's an extension of ignore the long run logic. Moreover, yes I absolutely believe playoff performance matters. Do you think the front office is going into the offseason trying to figure out how to solve that darn #2 WR problem, or re-evaluating the importance of re-signing Emmanuel Sanders? Should a FF owner consider he's just 22 years old and has an unprecedented notch in his belt on a high octane offense when comparing him to a bird in the bush? I think so.

Listen, we clearly got off on the wrong foot due to my tone, and for that I do apologize. I'm not going to apologize for dismissing a suggestion we should ignore actual facts in estimating the upside of a player.
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I’m not sure anyone said it should be ignored. I think the main “argument” is an outlier game during the playoffs may tend to over-inflate the prospects of a player. I remember Deion Branch getting a huge bump in value based on one playoff game. That turned out poorly. Doesn’t mean it will this time of course…

Lets face it - there was zero chance  of anyone paying a first round pick (or anyone turning one down) for Gabriel if that one game did not happen - that’s the only point anyone made.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I’m not sure anyone said it should be ignored. I think the main “argument” is an outlier game during the playoffs may tend to over-inflate the prospects of a player. I remember Deion Branch getting a huge bump in value based on one playoff game. That turned out poorly. Doesn’t mean it will this time of course…
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Didn’t Branch subsequently tear his ACL though?  IIRC that injury was what led to the NFL rules change regarding shenanigans with the injury report. They’d listed him as questionable for several weeks despite knowing he’d torn his ACL. Point being Branch may well have worked out had he not been hurt. 

maybe I’m remembering the year/sequence wrong. 

Dr. Octopus said:
Lets face it - there was zero chance  of anyone paying a first round pick (or anyone turning one down) for Gabriel if that one game did not happen - that’s the only point anyone made.
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The first part I agree with. No one was offering a 1st for Davis, though at the deadline one of my league-mates offered me a mid-2nd and I declined it. 

but in the context of the 2022 draft, even without that playoff game I would not have accepted a 1.11 or 1.12 for Davis, because it seems silly to deal away an upside WR for a pick that I might hope would one day become…an upside WR. Especially in a draft where I don’t really love anyone past what’s projected to be 1.10. 

But I do agree for valuation purposes it is best to consider the 4 TD game as an outlier. Not to ignore it - because it happened; it was awesome, and it serves to drive home what a weapon he can be, and how much of a nose for the end zone he has. Shareholders were already paying attention to it - this just highlighted it in flashing neon for everyone else. 

It also very likely cemented his ascension to WR2 on that team, so for long-term valuation it’s also relevant.

But then, I assumed that ascension was likely regardless due to age / contracts of Sanders/Beasley respectively.

I’m excited to see what kind of leap Davis takes in 2022 if indeed opportunity opens up for him. It’ll be interesting to see where his value is ahead of the 2023 draft as a result. There’s a wide spectrum of outcomes.  His true current value depends on whether the buyer is an optimist or pessimist. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
but in the context of the 2022 draft, even without that playoff game I would not have accepted a 1.11 or 1.12 for Davis, because it seems silly to deal away an upside WR for a pick that I might hope would one day become…an upside WR. Especially in a draft where I don’t really love anyone past what’s projected to be 1.10. 
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This is where I am, at least for a pick. If I were trading him for a proven player, I may take less value. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Didn’t Branch subsequently tear his ACL though?  IIRC that injury was what led to the NFL rules change regarding shenanigans with the injury report. They’d listed him as questionable for several weeks despite knowing he’d torn his ACL. Point being Branch may well have worked out had he not been hurt. 
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No - he was traded to Seattle that next offseason.

but in the context of the 2022 draft, even without that playoff game I would not have accepted a 1.11 or 1.12 for Davis, because it seems silly to deal away an upside WR for a pick that I might hope would one day become…an upside WR. Especially in a draft where I don’t really love anyone past what’s projected to be 1.10. 
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I have serious doubts on this - it's not that I think you're being dishonest but that game did happen and you know it did happen. I don't think we can really know what would have happened if it didn't.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
No - he was traded to Seattle that next offseason.
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Ah, my bad - I had my years mixed up. I just remember drafting Branch on some hype that he was Brady's favorite receiver & then he was abducted by aliens - news updates so vague that he was a roster clogger for my redraft team for months. I guess that wass 2010. 

Dr. Octopus said:
I have serious doubts on this - it's not that I think you're being dishonest but that game did happen and you know it did happen. I don't think we can really know what would have happened if it didn't.
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Yes, that game did happen and I know that game did happen. And I still would not accept a 2022 1.11 or 1.12 for him, and I might even reject an offer of both, as I've said before. Why is it so difficult to believe? I said I turned down a mid-2nd for him at my league's trade deadline, which was like week 14. He certainly wasn't lighting the world on fire then. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Ah, my bad - I had my years mixed up. I just remember drafting Branch on some hype that he was Brady's favorite receiver & then he was abducted by aliens - news updates so vague that he was a roster clogger for my redraft team for months. I guess that wass 2010. 

Yes, that game did happen and I know that game did happen. And I still would not accept a 2022 1.11 or 1.12 for him, and I might even reject an offer of both, as I've said before. Why is it so difficult to believe? I said I turned down a mid-2nd for him at my league's trade deadline, which was like week 14. He certainly wasn't lighting the world on fire then. 
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If that outlier game did not happen and you turned down two late firsts for him, you'd be an outlier.

So, in that case I'll revise my original statement to "Lets face it - there was zero almost no chance of anyone paying a first round pick (or anyone turning one down - except for maybe one person) for Gabriel if that one game did not happen

 
Dr. Octopus said:
If that outlier game did not happen and you turned down two late firsts for him, you'd be an outlier.
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But it did, and no, no one has offered me 2 firsts. I realize I'm an outlier, but I also gave a pretty rational reason for it. YMMV. 

Dr. Octopus said:
So, in that case I'll revise my original statement to "Lets face it - there was zero almost no chance of anyone paying a first round pick (or anyone turning one down - except for maybe one person) for Gabriel if that one game did not happen
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And I didn't disagree with this point. But I was offered a mid-second before that game, so at least in my personal experience, it wasn't too far off.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
But it did, and no, no one has offered me 2 firsts. I realize I'm an outlier, but I also gave a pretty rational reason for it. YMMV. 

And I didn't disagree with this point. But I was offered a mid-second before that game, so at least in my personal experience, it wasn't too far off.  
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There's a pretty significant difference between a mid second and a first round pick - even if it's partially psychological. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
There's a pretty significant difference between a mid second and a first round pick - even if it's partially psychological. 
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IMO, not in 2022. I see it all as a gigantic crap shoot after pick 10. But again, I am somewhat low on the 2022 draft's offensive skill positions. I see about 4 WRs I'd like to have, 3 RBs who might be useful, and while I'm sure one of the QBs will become a decent NFL guy, I can't really plant a flag other than the "most NFL-Ready" cop-out everyone else is doing. 

I've been pretty careful to include "2022" in my posts for this reason. If it were the 2023 draft, I'd completely agree that a mid-2nd is not at all close to the 1.11 or 1.12. 

 
massraider said:
I don't own him anywhere, but the Bills off-season moves should tell us what they think of him.
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Perhaps.  However, guys slide in the draft sometimes.  They may have a WR in their top 10 that is there when they pick.  Or a top end FA WR may want to play in Buffalo for a discount.

All of that hurts Davis for fantasy purposes, but doesnt necessarily have anything to do what they think of Davis.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
IMO, not in 2022. I see it all as a gigantic crap shoot after pick 10. But again, I am somewhat low on the 2022 draft's offensive skill positions. I see about 4 WRs I'd like to have, 3 RBs who might be useful, and while I'm sure one of the QBs will become a decent NFL guy, I can't really plant a flag other than the "most NFL-Ready" cop-out everyone else is doing. 

I've been pretty careful to include "2022" in my posts for this reason. If it were the 2023 draft, I'd completely agree that a mid-2nd is not at all close to the 1.11 or 1.12. 
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Fair enough. I don’t have a specific number of players lined up yet so maybe when I do I’ll think the 1.11/1.12 isn’t worth much. 

 
barackdhouse said:
I expect them to go get more talent at the position and I don't think that will have anything to do with how they feel about Davis. If they want to compete they need more playmakers.
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This. I just saw a PFF podcast with Trevor Sikkema where the guys were talking about drafts and receivers and they got to talking about how teams who already had receivers would be drafting more so long as they thought the guys they were drafting could play. They called it an "arms race." There's always room for more, they seemed to be saying, and with Beasley and Sanders in their 30s, The Bills would be remiss if they didn't look to augment their WR position. I don't think that will say a ton about Davis like I mentioned before. I've since sort of changed my mind on that. It would probably behoove someone to look at the draft, but that isn't determinative. 

He's still not worth both the 1.11 and 1.12 in this draft. Haven't changed my mind on that. 

 
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Bottom line for me is the guy is in a highly volatile ranking status. If Justin Jefferson starts the 2022 season with under 10 FF points for the first three games his value will not fluctuate much. If Gabe Davis does it will drop significantly IMO as owners will start to question if the SB was more of an anomaly. I decided to sell because I know today the value is high with a much lower floor outcome possibility (along with my depth at that position). He has upside (as does any receiver paired with Allen), but I am not sure he is a receiver who will take over games with defenses being more aware of him at this point. His SB game was historically impressive but I didn’t see a great receiver who was single handedly beating good coverage. I saw a good receiver taking advantage of some bad coverage from the Chiefs in a lot of instances.

 
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King of the Jungle said:
I saw a good receiver taking advantage of some bad coverage from the Chiefs in a lot of instances.
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The Chiefs gave up 55 PPR points to Ja'Marr Chase just a few weeks before, too. They weren't exactly wiping the floor with the other teams' receivers by the end of the year. 

But even in arguing that KC's defense was bad, one is probably giving that one game too much credence. He was not a breakout receiver by any means in his first two years, and the odds against him truly breaking out next year are a bit long. If you sold for a mid-1st or so, I'd say you did a good job. 

 
rockaction said:
The Chiefs gave up 55 PPR points to Ja'Marr Chase just a few weeks before, too. They weren't exactly wiping the floor with the other teams' receivers by the end of the year. 

But even in arguing that KC's defense was bad, one is probably giving that one game too much credence. He was not a breakout receiver by any means in his first two years, and the odds against him truly breaking out next year are a bit long. If you sold for a mid-1st or so, I'd say you did a good job. 
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Credit to Gabe for taking advantage of the opportunities he was provided, and he did fully and should be praised for that. Bills will add pass catchers this off-season and defenses will be more aware of him on the field after that game. If I didn’t have the depth I would have been happy to hang onto him and see where it goes, but for me it seemed like a good time to cash out as I can safely predict that he won’t have another game like that (that of course doesn’t mean he cannot be productive).

 
Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph 2017/2018 = Diggs/Davis/Knox

With Allen at QB, I see it.

Take Emmanuel Sanders #'s from 2021 and give them to Davis for the 2022 season and this seems about right. +/- a couple touchdowns and a couple hundred yards between the 3 of them.

 
rockaction said:
The Chiefs gave up 55 PPR points to Ja'Marr Chase just a few weeks before, too. They weren't exactly wiping the floor with the other teams' receivers by the end of the year. 

But even in arguing that KC's defense was bad, one is probably giving that one game too much credence.
 
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But at the same time, aren’t you also, in a way, giving that one game too much credence also in the opposite direction? 

The body of work before his age 23 season, and before that 1 monster game, as a 4th WR in that offense is pretty impressive. 

You look at that one great game and say he’s not going to be a 10/200/4 guy, which is fair. He likely won’t. 

I was high on him before the playoffs even started. I specifically went after him around week 1 of last year. They brought in Sanders, popping the balloon of his potential for one more year & owners were down on him as a result. I saw it as a buy low. 

I agree with most that no one should be paying an exorbitant price based on that one playoff game. 

But I also feel that no one should be dismissing what he’d already done to that point in the shadow of that 1 playoff game either. There’s clearly a path for Davis to have success in the NFL & FF.  It’ll be up to Davis to deliver on that potential, but if he does, then 1.11 could look like a bargain this time next year. 

 
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