WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think that was more of a function of not drafting well and doubling down on not doing well.  

I agree. I’m just saying the entire premise of “what teams do in the draft” neatly summed up as though there’s some cohesiveness to it that we can apply as universal logic across all teams is a deeply flawed premise.

How BUF views Davis right now is very likely “wow, can you believe we got this kid in the 4th round?!” and not, “if we draft a WR this year, to hell with that Davis kid. Let him rot on the bench, there’s a new 1st rounder in town!”

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Buffalo is not likely to take a receiver, per the homers. I don't really see a need, either. 

yes but arguing about hypotheticals with a 5% chance to happen is fun too. 

Why won’t you let us have nice things? 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

They sure are given the opportunity to, aren’t they?  

Nah, you’ve changed my mind.  If the Bills dump a 1st on a WR it’s because they want to move on from Cole Beasley in the slot.  Wouldn’t impact Gabriel Davis at all.  Noted.  Good luck man.  

They're not going to.

But if they did, they’ll still need 3 WRs, and 2 of theirs are old / leaving. So….Davis would still get more targets than he had last year, right?

I’m starting to suspect you’re the reason we don’t have a laugh emoji quick reaction any more.

 

[rockaction]

How BUF views Davis

is, to me, a really open question. They've already gone out and gotten a different starter when he had started the year prior. As Gally said, and I alluded to last night, he actually sort of regressed this year, actually. 

As far as how the team views him, well, the proof is in the pudding. He was starting last year. He wasn't this year. Pretty cut-and-dried, that. It leaves the "how Buffalo views him" question wide open, IMO. 

 

[rockaction]

But I've explained myself enough in this thread. Time to back off before it becomes like CEH for me. I wish the guy well. 

 

[Blick]

If Buffalo drafts a WR in the 1st, Davis will be a roster clogger at best going forward.  While I don't think that's likely to happen, I could absolutely see them drafting a WR in the 2nd or 3rd, or bring in another capable veteran.  Under both of those scenarios, Davis's value takes a hit.  While his value may continue to increase long term, I think this bump is an immediate sell opportunity.  I'm looking to sell if I can get mid 2022 1st or any 2023 1st value.  

I doubt I get that kind of value though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

is, to me, a really open question. They've already gone out and gotten a different starter when he had started the year prior. As Gally said, and I alluded to last night, he actually sort of regressed this year, actually. 

As far as how the team views him, well, the proof is in the pudding. He was starting last year. He wasn't this year. Pretty cut-and-dried, that. It leaves the "how Buffalo views him" question wide open, IMO. 

He’s 22. 

They were in win-now mode and it has been pointed out to you more than once that the Bills had coveted Emmanuel Sanders for some time prior to signing him. 

Not one part of that is an indictment of Davis. 

 

[SayWhat?]

They're not going to.

But if they did, they’ll still need 3 WRs, and 2 of theirs are old / leaving. So….Davis would still get more targets than he had last year, right?

I’m starting to suspect you’re the reason we don’t have a laugh emoji quick reaction any more.

And that would get him to “top 5 dynasty level?”  

If you want to take personal digs, then it’s fair to say that I suspect that you took Logical Reasoning class with my wife.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

But I've explained myself enough in this thread. Time to back off before it becomes like CEH for me. I wish the guy well. 

Oh c’mon - you want a new CEH. You *need* a new CEH!  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If you want to take personal digs, then it’s fair to say that I suspect that you took Logical Reasoning class with my wife.  

it was more a joke because you keep using the thumbs up emoji than a “personal dig”. Relax.

 

[rockaction]

Oh c’mon - you want a new CEH. You *need* a new CEH!  

I've still got the old CEH. There are still believers out there that I must disabuse of any notion of proficiency. 

 

[zamboni]

Given that this past game was the last we'll see of Buffalo before the season starts, no doubt most folks and owners will be laser focused on Davis's monster game.  It remains to be seen whether this is a harbinger of things to come or if it was just a result of him just having one of those incredible performances with Allen at the top of his game and defenses rolling coverage towards Diggs. No one knows, but it could work to the advantage of owners if you find another owner(s) who believes the former. To me, it's probably somewhere in the middle, as I think Diggs is young and productive enough to remain Josh's main guy.

March/April will indeed be very telling though, as Sanders and probably Beasley will be gone. Have to think the Bills will want to load up even more coming off that heartbreaker, so a high quality addition could indeed cap Davis's value.  

 

[Buckna]

I own him and super glad at the moment but don’t think anyone will pay top dollar though. He was one of those guys everyone had been trying to get me to “throw-in” in trade negotiations and I resisted.

As far as the draft, my totally layman’s opinion would be their 1st and 2nd would be better spent injecting even more talent into the defense after getting torched by KC. They certainly didn’t have an inability to score points. They will need another WR, but receivers can be found later in the draft or in FA. What if they brought a guy like Juju in for example to replace Beasley in the slot?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Given that this past game was the last we'll see of Buffalo before the season starts, no doubt most folks and owners will be laser focused on Davis's monster game.  It remains to be seen whether this is a harbinger of things to come or if it was just a result of him just having one of those incredible performances with Allen at the top of his game and defenses rolling coverage towards Diggs. No one knows, but it could work to the advantage of owners if you find another owner(s) who believes the former. To me, it's probably somewhere in the middle, as I think Diggs is young and productive enough to remain Josh's main guy.

March/April will indeed be very telling though, as Sanders and probably Beasley will be gone. Have to think the Bills will want to load up even more coming off that heartbreaker, so a high quality addition could indeed cap Davis's value.  

I actually agree that it’s somewhere in the middle, but I think that middle is still pretty solid for FF purposes. I don’t expect Davis to leapfrog Diggs - not hardly. But I do believe it’s realistic to expect Davis to be a full time starter as the WR2 next year, and in that offense that should be plenty productive.

It’s essentially a given that they’ll bring in a FA or draft a WR. They have to. But IMO Davis has cemented a role opposite Diggs. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

They will need another WR, but receivers can be found later in the draft or in FA. What if they brought a guy like Juju in for example to replace Beasley in the slot?

I wouldn’t see much impact to Davis there.

as long as Davis locks up that WR2 spot, I think he’ll have solid value. It’s all about staying on the field and getting targets. When Davis has targets, he’s produced. 

 

[zamboni]

I actually agree that it’s somewhere in the middle, but I think that middle is still pretty solid for FF purposes. I don’t expect Davis to leapfrog Diggs - not hardly. But I do believe it’s realistic to expect Davis to be a full time starter as the WR2 next year, and in that offense that should be plenty productive.

It’s essentially a given that they’ll bring in a FA or draft a WR. They have to. But IMO Davis has cemented a role opposite Diggs. 

Totally agree. My point is that some may think that this is the beginning of Davis leapfrogging Diggs in the pecking order and that could be an advantage to Davis owners. But he could absolutely turn into a Higgins-lite in terms of being the 2nd guy - and a valuable one at that - in a high octane passing offense.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I own him and super glad at the moment but don’t think anyone will pay top dollar though. He was one of those guys everyone had been trying to get me to “throw-in” in trade negotiations and I resisted.

As far as the draft, my totally layman’s opinion would be their 1st and 2nd would be better spent injecting even more talent into the defense after getting torched by KC. They certainly didn’t have an inability to score points. They will need another WR, but receivers can be found later in the draft or in FA. What if they brought a guy like Juju in for example to replace Beasley in the slot?

100% agree with all of this

 

[zamboni]

As far as the draft, my totally layman’s opinion would be their 1st and 2nd would be better spent injecting even more talent into the defense after getting torched by KC. They certainly didn’t have an inability to score points. They will need another WR, but receivers can be found later in the draft or in FA. What if they brought a guy like Juju in for example to replace Beasley in the slot?

Their defense was at or near the top of the league - just got torched by a great QB when it mattered most. They’re a pretty loaded team on both sides of the ball - my guess is that they’ll go BPA in the draft. I agree that they can - and probably will - find another proven WR via free agency, but disagree that they would rely on one later in the draft in a win-now mode.

 

[BigJim®]

"Cherry picking" was the wrong phrase. I'm sorry. Those are concrete examples of guys who might hit, and wondering what they're worth, probability-wise, is part and parcel to the game. That's fair. 

Great questions. I really can't answer with certainty. I'd have to get better at it and be able to really hammer down the probabilities. I can tell you Mitchell goes for about a mid-first, which sounds right. It sounds right because he did almost "hit," but for injury. He almost had the PPG to finish as a top twelve back when he was in games. That's the "hit" we're speaking of, which is harder to "hit" than the receivers, who only need a top 24 finish once in their career to "hit." 

So...I'm not sure what to tell you. 

Ok, fair enough. You came to an 18% on Gabe Davis so I just assumed there was a calculated % for Elijah Mitchell too. Definitely not asking you to do any homework, I was just curious.

On an approach/methodology level, I'm just not all that persuaded on a valuation methodology that sandbags an individual with the failures of other players. If the degree of sandbagging only allows Gabriel Davis to increase to 18% of being top 24, it's playing too big a roll in the math. It's sort of like saying there is a 100% chance of snow today because it has snowed on 1/25 each of the past 10 years, and moving that estimate to 90% chance of snow when you recalculate using the fact there isn't a cloud in the sky. Actual facts have more significance than history. For me, that's having a breakout performance.

On a strictly human level, even if I accept the math, I'm not trading Gabriel Davis for a couple birds in the bush. I just get way too much satisfaction lording a late round find over my league mates. You couldn't replace that with prospective marginal value gains. 

 

[rockaction]

Their defense was at or near the top of the league - just got torched by a great QB when it mattered most.

It was. Kislingbury of DLF IDP fame -- a guy who studies defenses intensely -- had them ranked #1. DVOA had them in the top five, I believe. They were missing Tre'Davious White in the secondary. He's an All-Pro, IIRC. Micah Hyde is an All-Pro at safety. It was just going up against Mahomes. They couldn't quite stop him. And the coaching at the end in terms of personnel deployment (not the kick) was baffling. 

 

[rockaction]

It's sort of like saying there is a 100% chance of snow today because it has snowed on 1/25 each of the past 10 years, and moving that estimate to 90% chance of snow when you recalculate using the fact there isn't a cloud in the sky. Actual facts have more significance than history.

That's a pretty illustrative example of why you don't agree with the methodology I used. I can certainly see your point. 

 

[rockaction]

Podfather and Ray G doing a number on Davis right now regarding first-round value. 

 

[rockaction]

They're talking about draft capital. LOL. 

"Gotta be careful with Day Three picks" - Matt Kelley

"This is insane" - Ray G

Smash accept for the 1.05, they say. Prefer Amon-Ra St. Brown to Davis. 

 

[ghostguy123]

They're talking about draft capital. LOL. 

"Gotta be careful with Day Three picks" - Matt Kelley

"This is insane" - Ray G

Smash accept for the 1.05, they say. Prefer Amon-Ra St. Brown to Davis. 

Who are these people?

 

[rockaction]

Who are these people?

RotoUnderworld. They have a subscription service like FBGs and do numerous podcasts and videocasts. They're very well known. Ray Garvin does Destination Devy and is a Twitter presence. He used to do the weekly dynasty show at Fantasy Pros with Kyle Yates. 

They're very knowledgable folks. I will admit to citing authority and figuring people would know who they were. 

 

[barackdhouse]

A colleague over at the outfit I've been writing with for the last 9 months or so posted this:

Davis, Diggs and R Higgins are the only day 3 WRs since 2013 to meet his thresholds coming out. R Higgins is a nice cautionary tale comp. Respected, talented journeyman WR but not a stud. 

I have an article that will post tomorrow on Davis but here is one little nugget. This is a contrived stat but on the metric of TDs per RedZone target (with at least 15), Davis is 7th in the NFL over the last two years. He is 17th in redzone TDs, but the numbers I crunched for it didn't include his playoff games, where he has 2 more TDs to add to his redzone total.

It seems to me that players who show incredible efficiency are the ones we should be targeting. There is also a myth that the 3rd year breakout WR idea is dead. While it is true that the 2nd year WR breakout has taken over, that does not mean 3rd years don't happen. 

Ok seriously going to try hard not to write anything more about this guy for awhile.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

A colleague over at the outfit I've been writing with for the last 9 months or so posted this:

Davis, Diggs and R Higgins are the only day 3 WRs since 2013 to meet his thresholds coming out. R Higgins is a nice cautionary tale comp. Respected, talented journeyman WR but not a stud. 

I have an article that will post tomorrow on Davis but here is one little nugget. This is a contrived stat but on the metric of TDs per RedZone target (with at least 15), Davis is 7th in the NFL over the last two years. He is 17th in redzone TDs, but the numbers I crunched for it didn't include his playoff games, where he has 2 more TDs to add to his redzone total.

It seems to me that players who show incredible efficiency are the ones we should be targeting. There is also a myth that the 3rd year breakout WR idea is dead. While it is true that the 2nd year WR breakout has taken over, that does not mean 3rd years don't happen. 

Ok seriously going to try hard not to write anything more about this guy for awhile.

Excited to see your article. Can you link it here when it’s out? Or DM the link? 

I’ll check out the other one as well.

Besides efficiency, opportunity seems pretty important. I feel like a bunch of opportunity is about to fall into Davis’ lap, so I guess we’ll see if his efficiency can keep up with a rising target share, proving there is one. 

That’s what I’ve been banking on, anyway,

Now, would I pay a 1st or 2 1sts (2022 11 & 12)?  Probably not. For that price I’d want a more proven commodity. But would I pay 2022 1.12 & a late second? I might. 

Glad I got him relatively cheap. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Excited to see your article. Can you link it here when it’s out? Or DM the link? 

I’ll check out the other one as well.

Besides efficiency, opportunity seems pretty important. I feel like a bunch of opportunity is about to fall into Davis’ lap, so I guess we’ll see if his efficiency can keep up with a rising target share, proving there is one. 

That’s what I’ve been banking on, anyway,

Now, would I pay a 1st or 2 1sts (2022 11 & 12)?  Probably not. For that price I’d want a more proven commodity. But would I pay 2022 1.12 & a late second? I might. 

Glad I got him relatively cheap. 

It's really weird for me to think about what price I might pay for him, because I already picked him up everywhere for free or very cheap last year. Yes, opportunity is a big deal. I do expect them to bring in more talent at WR this year, and they would be smart to aim higher than Sanders or Beasley IMO. There is a very real if not likely possibility that Davis remains a PT contributor.

But. His RZ work has been very good. People have this notion that he is only a deep threat but they use him and have done so consistently since he was a rookie week 1, in the RZ. Diggs is getting older, and aside from a splashy trade I'm not sure there is a FA that would knock Davis off his #2 role, assuming he has it locked down now. He has played 90% of the WR snaps since week 14 and got 30% of the WR targets. Small sample but it seems bizzare twilight zone crazytalk to me to suggest the Bills don't want Davis to be a part of their plans going forward. And why? Because he was taken 4th round.

The real threat would be a #1 type that they might draft. I would be doing that very thing if I were them. Not as an indictment of Davis but as a move to attain weaponry because Mahomes/Burrow/Herbert/Lamar etc.

 

[barackdhouse]

Excited to see your article. Can you link it here when it’s out? Or DM the link? 

I’ll check out the other one as well.

It is behind a paywall but I'll send out a couple tweets later. 

 

[barackdhouse]

One note on him being taken in the 4th round. He went as the 16th WR off the board. The 15th, Duvernay, went 36 spots earlier, in the 3rd round. 

Big if here, but if the NFL draft is a proxy for what the NFL hive mind consensus thinks about incoming players x, y, z in a given class... then that means that they thought first and foremost that there was a big tier break between these groups of WRs.

But it also means they thought Davis was #1 on that next tier. Food for thought.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One note on him being taken in the 4th round. He went as the 16th WR off the board. The 15th, Duvernay, went 36 spots earlier, in the 3rd round. 

Big if here, but if the NFL draft is a proxy for what the NFL hive mind consensus thinks about incoming players x, y, z in a given class... then that means that they thought first and foremost that there was a big tier break between these groups of WRs.

But it also means they thought Davis was #1 on that next tier. Food for thought.

It’s also a weird double edged sword of presumption by NFL fans & analysts alike. 

if a physically gifted and talented wide receiver  (or any player) slides to the fourth round, that team is likely doing cartwheels in their draft room knowing they got a total bargain on a player that should have likely gone a round or two earlier.

but the presumption by fans & analysts is the opposite… That the player must stink because he went in the fourth round. That presumption is even baked  into rankings @rockaction linked to. 

At this point it’s pretty clear we’ve seen enough between the eye test and statistically to know that Gabriel Davis is demonstrably better than some of the wide receivers who went before him, but because of the draft capital aspect, naysayers will continue to point to that as somehow proof that what we are seeing on the field isn’t real.

It might just be that people were wrong about Davis‘s talent level coming out because he was so young and unproven. not to say that Davis proves the analysts wrong. Just that there are always outliers in any method of analysis. 

I do wonder where Gabriel Davis would have been drafted with 20-20 hindsight to his first two years of production?

 

[jabarony]

If Buffalo drafts a WR in the 1st, Davis will be a roster clogger at best going forward.  While I don't think that's likely to happen, I could absolutely see them drafting a WR in the 2nd or 3rd, or bring in another capable veteran.  Under both of those scenarios, Davis's value takes a hit.  While his value may continue to increase long term, I think this bump is an immediate sell opportunity.  I'm looking to sell if I can get mid 2022 1st or any 2023 1st value.  

I doubt I get that kind of value though.

Just 1 data point out in the world - Put it out there in one FFPC league that I’m looking to trade him. Only received 1 offer. Pick 2.10 non-SF. 

 

[IHEARTFF]

KTC has him up to WR33 and roughly worth pick 1.12. I would not sell for that. Individual leagues may vary, but yeah the 2.10 is a terrible offer to jabarony.

 

[ghostguy123]

Davis isnt really a target right now, so you won't get great offers.  Too much can happen to fluctuate his value.

If the draft and free agency dont bring in startable WR talent that would probably change.

So, his value is somewhere between the Bill's not bringing in anyone (mid 1st this year??) and the Bill's drafting a 1st round WR or bringing in a high end FA WR ( late 2nd maybe??).

So to me that puts his value right now at maybe high 2nd this year.

 

[ghostguy123]

Let me also again remind people he is 22.  Same age as some of the WRs who will be going round 1 in the draft.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Just 1 data point out in the world - Put it out there in one FFPC league that I’m looking to trade him. Only received 1 offer. Pick 2.10 non-SF. 

You got lowballed 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Davis isnt really a target right now, so you won't get great offers.  Too much can happen to fluctuate his value.

If the draft and free agency dont bring in startable WR talent that would probably change.

So, his value is somewhere between the Bill's not bringing in anyone (mid 1st this year??) and the Bill's drafting a 1st round WR or bringing in a high end FA WR ( late 2nd maybe??).

So to me that puts his value right now at maybe high 2nd this year.

I will reiterate: I don’t think the bills drafting a receiver will have any impact on Davis‘s value in fantasy or real life.

also, I fully expect the bills to bring in a wide receiver because they are likely losing Emmanuel Sanders, and Beasley is 137 years old.

 

[ghostguy123]

I will reiterate: I don’t think the bills drafting a receiver will have any impact on Davis‘s value in fantasy or real life.

also, I fully expect the bills to bring in a wide receiver because they are likely losing Emmanuel Sanders, and Beasley is 137 years old.

There is a difference between "bringing in a receiver" and drafting a guy round 1, or signing/trading for a guy like a healthy Calvin Ridley or something like that.

I simply cant agree with you that drafting a WR round 1 means nothing.  Especially when Davis isnt their #1 WR.

 

[Boone22]

Wow this thread reeks of recency bias!

Let me start out by saying I don’t own Davis anywhere and I haven’t been following him this year so when I read this thread I expected his fantasy season numbers to be great.  But looking at his only two years he has never broken 600 yards receiving during the fantasy season.  He ranked 54 in my PPR league this year.  So when people start talking about rejecting 2 first round rookie picks for him I have to scratch my head.  Heck, even rejecting a mid first!

Yes he looked absolutely dominant in last weeks playoff game but it’s ONE game.  Now you can say that he hasn’t had opportunity but he will in the future and he’s young and he’s got Alan as his QB.  All good point for future success but it doesn’t mean none of that will change.  As people have already stated, if a FA or round 1 or 2 rookie WR is drafted he’s impacted.  And he’s still got Diggs taking targets and Knox stealing goal line TDs.  
 

I see a lot of people talking about “buying high”.  I just don’t see it.  There are other much more proven WRs you could acquire with 1 or 2 first round rookie picks who have less risk.  

edited to add: Question for everyone…

if he had NOT had a 200 yard 4 TD game last week would everyone still see him worth as much as I see everyone saying above?

just my 2 cents. 

 

[Blick]

Just 1 data point out in the world - Put it out there in one FFPC league that I’m looking to trade him. Only received 1 offer. Pick 2.10 non-SF. 

KTC has him up to WR33 and roughly worth pick 1.12. I would not sell for that. Individual leagues may vary, but yeah the 2.10 is a terrible offer to jabarony.

I wouldn't let him go for the 2.10.  He has too much upside.  I think I'd accept the 1.12 though based on the risk.  I'm not sure the fact that Buffalo is going to bring in a WR, and likely a well established vet or high pick, is fully baked into his current value.  IF Buffalo makes no moves at WR, I'm still not sure you can get a mid 1st for him.  

 

[jabarony]

You got lowballed 

Well it’s one league with limited buyers. Player X is with only what someone is willing to pay. So in this micro market, he’s apparently worth around 2.10. 
 

Trust me, I’d have preferred a late 1st, but it doesn’t look to be. 
 

Perhaps I’ll link this thread to the league message board to show them their error!

 

[barackdhouse]

Yes he looked absolutely dominant in last weeks playoff game but it’s ONE game.

   And he’s still got Diggs taking targets and Knox stealing goal line TDs.  

Gabriel Davis has 18 career TDs and 12 of them are in the redzone. 

ETA I wasn't clear who I was talking about before. Davis has done a lot more than just one game. 

 

[barackdhouse]

https://twitter.com/DFF_Dynasty/status/1486777555478880258?t=m40am8xnKf5ZdY5PtFxGfA&s=19

Link to my article. It is mostly the same stuff and like I said it is behind a paywall but if interested.

 

[Boone22]

He has 18 career TDs and 12 of them are in the redzone. 

I’m not sure if you are agreeing with me, disagreeing, or correcting me but yes maybe I shoulda said Knox is the Redzone target as opposed to goal line TDs.  

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Well it’s one league with limited buyers. Player X is with only what someone is willing to pay. So in this micro market, he’s apparently worth around 2.10. 
 

Trust me, I’d have preferred a late 1st, but it doesn’t look to be. 
 

Perhaps I’ll link this thread to the league message board to show them their error!

I’d suggest holding then. It’s up to you if you want to get taken to the cleaners simply because that’s what your league is (currently) offering. 

 

[BigJim®]

edited to add: Question for everyone…

if he had NOT had a 200 yard 4 TD game last week would everyone still see him worth as much as I see everyone saying above?

So the gist of the question is, "If he had not done something historically unprecedented, would you you foolish people still consider him a potentially special player?" Do I have that right? 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Wow this thread reeks of recency bias!

no, it doesn’t. Most of us have been posting his career numbers and talking about an ascending 22 y/o who’s scored at a prolific rate over his 2 year career & is likely in line for a significant target share increase.

if you think that’s “recency bias” then you either weren’t reading the responses & are knee-jerk assuming everyone is high on him after his 4-TD game, or you don’t understand what recency bias is. 

Let me start out by saying I don’t own Davis anywhere and I haven’t been following him this year

obviously. Or you would have seen him step into a more relevant role when Sanders went down. 

so when I read this thread I expected his fantasy season numbers to be great.  But looking at his only two years he has never broken 600 yards receiving during the fantasy season.  He ranked 54 in my PPR league this year.  So when people start talking about rejecting 2 first round rookie picks for him I have to scratch my head.  Heck, even rejecting a mid first!

he’s 22 years old and has 18 TDs already, despite only having started a handful of games as the 4th WR.

The “2 rookie pick” discussion is a thought experiment & was proposed purely as a hypothetical. Again, actually reading through the topic instead of assuming things would have helped here. 

Yes he looked absolutely dominant in last weeks playoff game but it’s ONE game.

no one here has based any analysis of Davis off of that one game. In fact, many of us have removed that 1 game from our analysis of his value in order to avoid unfairly skewing it with recency bias. 

Now you can say that he hasn’t had opportunity but he will in the future and he’s young and he’s got Alan as his QB.  All good point for future success but it doesn’t mean none of that will change.  As people have already stated, if a FA or round 1 or 2 rookie WR is drafted he’s impacted.  And he’s still got Diggs taking targets and Knox stealing goal line TDs.  

Knox hasn’t stolen anything from him. His stats bear this out. This is hardly an either/or. 

I see a lot of people talking about “buying high”.  I just don’t see it.  There are other much more proven WRs you could acquire with 1 or 2 first round rookie picks who have less risk.  

no, you actually don’t. You see people questioning whether to buy high, and attempt to determine what his actual value is. Most of us discussing his value *already own him* and some of us are wondering what a good sell high is. 

edited to add: Question for everyone…

if he had NOT had a 200 yard 4 TD game last week would everyone still see him worth as much as I see everyone saying above?

just my 2 cents. 

If you’d taken the time to actually read what people have posted the last few pages, you’d know the answer to that.  As mentioned, I explicitly *did not include* his 4-TD/200 yard game (or his other post season game)  in my evaluation of his first 2 seasons.

I suggest going back a few pages so you can assume less & actually get in on the discussion at hand - it’s been an interesting one. 

 

[ghostguy123]

If he had NOT had a 200 yard 4 TD game last week would everyone still see him worth as much as I see everyone saying above?

As much, no, but players values do fluctuate.   I would still have him worth a late 1st this year though.   I bought him for a late 2nd last offseason.

I have liked what I have seen, and again 22 years old, Allen, and a couple aging out vets were getting playing time that should go to Davis.  

Good efficiency, looks good doing it, young, good QB, and now hopefully #2 WR type opportunity.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I have liked what I have seen, and again 22 years old, Allen, and a couple aging out vets were getting playing time that should go to Davis.  

Good efficiency, looks good doing it, young, good QB, and now hopefully #2 WR type opportunity.

I think that’s the summary most of us have been evaluating by.

Now, one could legitimately get excited and say, “all that AND he went bonkers in the playoffs with TDs in 2 straight games, including a 10-catch, 200/4 game” to further bolster their point - he certainly shouldn’t be dinged for having a huge performance, as seems to be the implication.

The assertion by some that he “did everything in 1 big game” would seem to be a false premise. 

 

[themeistersinger]

Well it’s one league with limited buyers. Player X is with only what someone is willing to pay. So in this micro market, he’s apparently worth around 2.10. 
 

Trust me, I’d have preferred a late 1st, but it doesn’t look to be. 
 

Perhaps I’ll link this thread to the league message board to show them their error!

Fair value would be three firsts as long as this year's was 1.01.  Show them that!