rockaction
Footballguy
His value right now is around a mid-first according to market, so the 1.11 is a good deal for him. I'm talking both picks still.
So I agree with you, really. I was still arguing the original premise, I guess.
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WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
So I agree with you, really. I was still arguing the original premise, I guess.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Gotcha.
FWIW, so long as we’re still talking 2022, I’m rejecting an offer of 1.11 & 1.12 for him.
I’ve looked into this draft quite a bit. While it’ll still depend on which team drafts what player, I’m just not seeing anyone past the top 10 I’d rather have than Davis. And just because it’s two of those players I don’t want, doesn’t make it add up to Davis either.
With pick 1.08, I’m hoping my league-mates make 3 of the QBs top 7 picks. If not I’m gonna try to deal 1.08 for another 2022 pick or player.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
This isn't directed at anyone here, because I've seen the argument made all over FF twitter as well, but as it relates to the idea of "he was only able to do it because the Chiefs secondary was missing Honey Badger and/or wasn't that good."
So?
That counts. Point to every big blow up 40 burger+ game by a fantasy player this year (or any really) and you will likely find a defense that is less than full strength or simply overmatched or overschemed or all of the above. It happens and it is part of the game. You compete against the team and the players that are on the field.
I am a *diehard* Bears fan. You all know this. That 2006 squad that went to the SB felt like *my* team, in the sense that I was in my mid to late 20s and in my athletic prime. Those guys were *something* like peers, the closest of any Bears I'll ever see anyway. I knew every guy on that squad's name and jersey number and at least some kind of scouting info. In the SB vs the Colts the vaunted Bears defense gave up an easy TD to Reggie Wayne where the DB that got burned was a dude I did not recognize. Just some scrub they put in and P Manning saw it. 7 points.
Of course it is a bit silly to bump Davis up dramatically based on this one game, but dude had 14 TDs in 2 years before it. Just because he destroyed the defense that *theoretically he was supposed to destroy if they were so weak* doesn't mean we're not supposed to give him credit for it. Those mismatches occur all season long.
So?
That counts. Point to every big blow up 40 burger+ game by a fantasy player this year (or any really) and you will likely find a defense that is less than full strength or simply overmatched or overschemed or all of the above. It happens and it is part of the game. You compete against the team and the players that are on the field.
I am a *diehard* Bears fan. You all know this. That 2006 squad that went to the SB felt like *my* team, in the sense that I was in my mid to late 20s and in my athletic prime. Those guys were *something* like peers, the closest of any Bears I'll ever see anyway. I knew every guy on that squad's name and jersey number and at least some kind of scouting info. In the SB vs the Colts the vaunted Bears defense gave up an easy TD to Reggie Wayne where the DB that got burned was a dude I did not recognize. Just some scrub they put in and P Manning saw it. 7 points.
Of course it is a bit silly to bump Davis up dramatically based on this one game, but dude had 14 TDs in 2 years before it. Just because he destroyed the defense that *theoretically he was supposed to destroy if they were so weak* doesn't mean we're not supposed to give him credit for it. Those mismatches occur all season long.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Because when you're basing an argument on one game and not taking into account other games and a larger sample size, it opens it up to arguments about the specifics of that game.
Nobody is taking his accomplishment away from him. Nobody is subtracting out a big play from the total and making an argument therefrom. What was being suggested was to place that accomplishment against a backdrop of arguments about Davis going forward (will he or won't he?) and get to those arguments' premises (why will he or won't he?).
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Marauder
Footballguy
Until they replace Sanders with someone better, which seems likely. They're a win now team. They're not going to go into the season without adding another good WR.
Ostro
Footballguy
I'm sure they will, but I'm guessing whoever that may be, will be behind Diggs, Davis and Beasley. Then again, that's what I thought would happen last year when Brown left. But with Davis having another year under his belt, this might actually happen this time. (This would explain the 1 year contract for Sanders). So here's hoping for no FA WR's, and no WR's in rounds 1-3 in this years draft.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If you scroll through, I don’t think you’ll see anyone saying they won’t bring in a WR.
If they lose Sanders, they need to replace him. Beasley is 267 years old, so they have to get some depth.
Replacing Sanders with someone better was harder earlier in his career. I don’t see why they wouldn’t slide Davis into the WR2 spot. Not like he hasn’t shined every chance he’s had.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
My entire argument has been that the entirety of his body of work should be taken into account. Not just that one game. I have been consistent about that. I am saying it must be included not obsessed over.
Nobody is making a bigger deal out of that one game than the people saying it doesn't count. It is intellectually dishonest and the pot calling the kettle black.
Nobody is making a bigger deal out of that one game than the people saying it doesn't count. It is intellectually dishonest and the pot calling the kettle black.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
I'd say those are pretty strong words, and they're both inaccurate. I'm not trying to twist your words or your argument. If so, then three of us are misunderstanding you.
I have no interest in doing either of those things on a fantasy football message board. Perhaps we need to scale back this argument and revisit it next year. I'm always more than willing to do that.
jtd13
Footballguy
Same. I cannot keep up with who even likes Davis in this thread, and who does not. Maybe that's due to my January hiatus, or maybe the bourbon.
Watching the bills-chiefs game, the first guy I thought of was Jeff Janis dropping something like 150/2 in a playoff game in year 2 and then never doing anything again. Bit older than 22 and not 4 TDs though.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Can you quote some responses that said “it didn’t count”?barackdhouse said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Put me down as an “I like Davis” if you’re scoring at home.
The 1st playoff game against the Pats, Davis went 2/3 for 41/1
And before that he had 6 regular season TDs, despite only starting a handful of games as the 4th WR.
He also scored 7 (7!!!) TDs as a 20 year old rookie.
I’m just sayin - he’s not exactly out of nowhere or a flash in the pan. He’s a talented kid, and has shown that during his short career. The knocks on him are a little silly considering his age/experience.
Sanders is likely retiring & Davis is said to be taking over the WR2 role. He plays for a team with a top 3 QB in a pass-oriented offense. And the other WR is Beasley, who’s somewhere around 352 years old.
Yet Davis is almost being punished by critics for having that 1 huge game.
Regardless of whether he ever has a game like that again (never say never?) I see no reason to be anything but excited about his future.
DropKick
Footballguy
I don't think I've seen anybody say that they don't like Davis. The differences in opinion center around how much we should react or over-react to his big game. The valuation of a young player should be an interesting discussion.
Unfortunately, healthy skepticism has been incorrectly interpreted as criticism and its even been suggested that to question his true value going forward is foolish (because of his accomplishments in a single game).
In my case, I actually like Davis and only commented on people being overly dismissive of people asking fair questions.
football fan
Footballguy
https://www.nfl.com/news/bills-release-wr-cole-beasley-after-three-seasons
Bills release WR Cole Beasley after three seasons
The Buffalo Bills released veteran wide receiver Cole Beasley, NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reported Thursday. The team soon announced the news.
Buffalo had allowed Beasley to seek a trade earlier this offseason.
Beasley spent three seasons in Buffalo, catching 231 passes for 2,438 yards and 11 touchdowns in 46 regular-season games played.
Around The NFL will have more on Beasley's release shortly.
Bills release WR Cole Beasley after three seasons
The Buffalo Bills released veteran wide receiver Cole Beasley, NFL Network's Mike Garafolo reported Thursday. The team soon announced the news.
Buffalo had allowed Beasley to seek a trade earlier this offseason.
Beasley spent three seasons in Buffalo, catching 231 passes for 2,438 yards and 11 touchdowns in 46 regular-season games played.
Around The NFL will have more on Beasley's release shortly.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
With the Bills now making moves to sneak under the cap after Von Miller signing, I don’t see them bringing in any big FA WR.
So the last hurdle for playing time will be the BFL draft - and I’m skeptical that a rookie is going to come in & take snaps from Davis.
Looks like we have a starting WR, folks.
So the last hurdle for playing time will be the BFL draft - and I’m skeptical that a rookie is going to come in & take snaps from Davis.
Looks like we have a starting WR, folks.
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OldMilwaukee
IBL Representative
Price check please!
Has anyone seen him move in 1qb dynasty?
Has anyone seen him move in 1qb dynasty?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not recently.
before this news, I’d seen late 2022 1sts, 2023 2nds, etc.
i don’t think this news dramatically alters his value as most assumed Beasley would be dealt or cut.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
He has done a *lot* more than just that one game.
again
I was bumping him up before this game happened. My bump was modest at best. Hindery has since bumped up to 15 as well.
36% is an incredibly big number and one you should be betting on with his production through two years. The pot odds are the thing. For an 1.11/1.12? Ok maybe maybe not I certainly don't fault anyone for saying no. I got him for 3rds and 4ths so to say that I am basing *anything* on one game is missing the boat IMO.
You comment here wasn't directed at me but again, nobody had been making a bigger deal about the one game than the haters.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
did you even read this?
They are strong words because I was really pissed off. I don't believe that you read what I wrote. Nobody has been more vocal about that one game than the haters. But I have to apologize because much of what I have seen was on Twitter. Which I did actually include in the first sentence of the OP. Even though I've been writing about him for 2 years.
Not literally no, but the idea was that somehow it means less because he was in single coverage against scrubs. Of course that matters, but my point was those games still count. Players have blow up games due to mismatches and it is a part of their overall profile.
Anyway @rockactionto try and bring this to some kind of close. Bottom line is thread based communication sucks and always will. I'm sorry for the misunderstanding but I have a hard time reading what you wrote and coming away thinking you actually bothered to read what I have written about this guy.
rockaction
Footballguy
What? What evidence besides that one game do you see that he's worth a first-round pick?
The reason the haters are making a big deal about the one game is because that's all the evidence you have that he's worth a first-round pick. HSG said he was worth three or at least two. That's where I stepped in to argue he wasn't. Was this that wrong?
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rockaction
Footballguy
Best left until we see this all in action. I'd offer a tip not to call anybody "intellectually dishonest." That's a much stronger allegation than "wrong," "stupid," or almost any other word you can think of. That takes judgment out of it and says that one is deliberately misusing facts or lying about facts or something else of that nature.
Not cool.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I've never said anything about three first rounders. That was admittedly between yall. The 1.11/1.12 is one where I can see it either way but I would lean Davis. I literally just said that above.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
There is evidence all over this thread but you don't seem to want to read it.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
^^^This is intellectually dishonest BS and no it isn't cool. At all.Your entire post was centered around why one game should count.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
WTF?
rockaction
Footballguy
Okay. I've had enough of you this morning. Come back when you're willing to
a) look up what intellectually dishonest is
b) stop this nonsense
Until then, take it somewhere else.
rockaction
Footballguy
Exactly. This is off of the deep end. Good day, barack. You're acting nuts today. Not my day to be ruined because you have issues this morning.
This is weeks, if not over a month later and you're coming with this sort of stuff.
This is uncalled for. Intellectual dishonesty usually involves some sort of allegation of plagiarism or other such serious offense. Something that would get you kicked out of school. Arguing on the internet is not one of those things.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
I own Davis in both my FFPC leagues. I am likely going to shop him in both leagues in a package for an established high end player, and hopefully I can move him in ONE of the leagues.
I like him a lot (traded a 2nd rounder for him LAST offseason) and hope to keep one share of him in hopes he is a top 20 kinda guy this year, which I certainly think he can be, which would shoot his value way up.
I like him a lot (traded a 2nd rounder for him LAST offseason) and hope to keep one share of him in hopes he is a top 20 kinda guy this year, which I certainly think he can be, which would shoot his value way up.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oooooookay fellas - let’s all take a deep breath here ok?
Quoting posts from January out of left field is a little weird.
And a lot has changed since then.
And again, for the record (since it was mentioned), I posted my “i wouldn't take 3 firsts” comment as an obviously hyperbolic response to that 1 stupid productive game, in real time, during that game. lol.
The accompanying pickle dance was a clue. It was a comment not at all intended to be taken seriously, and I later clarified to that effect.
Now, in March 2022, would i take a 2022 1st for him? Only if it was the 1.01
Would I take 2x late 2022 1sts for him? Nope, I would not. Do I expect that to be the consensus among FF minds? Nope, I do not. I see him as a breakout player, and so far this off-season pretty much everything has broken right. Sanders retirement, Beasley released, none of the top FA receivers brought in. His starting role seems solidified. 80/1000/8 seems pretty well within reach, and IMO one would be hard pressed to land a 2022 rookie that could deliver the same upside.
But c’mon guys - the back and forth in here is way over the top. Deep breaths. Sheesh.
Quoting posts from January out of left field is a little weird.
And a lot has changed since then.
And again, for the record (since it was mentioned), I posted my “i wouldn't take 3 firsts” comment as an obviously hyperbolic response to that 1 stupid productive game, in real time, during that game. lol.
The accompanying pickle dance was a clue. It was a comment not at all intended to be taken seriously, and I later clarified to that effect.
Now, in March 2022, would i take a 2022 1st for him? Only if it was the 1.01
Would I take 2x late 2022 1sts for him? Nope, I would not. Do I expect that to be the consensus among FF minds? Nope, I do not. I see him as a breakout player, and so far this off-season pretty much everything has broken right. Sanders retirement, Beasley released, none of the top FA receivers brought in. His starting role seems solidified. 80/1000/8 seems pretty well within reach, and IMO one would be hard pressed to land a 2022 rookie that could deliver the same upside.
But c’mon guys - the back and forth in here is way over the top. Deep breaths. Sheesh.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
An example might be something like Davis and a 1st rounder (maybe mid 1st this year or a future 1st) for a guy like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adam's, Kupp.......
A top aging guy with a couple years left from a team who maybe isnt competitive.
I wouldn't trade Davis straight up for middle of the road vet
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think that’s a shark move for a competing team, and likely to get it done.
And now’s probably the time, when Davis’ upside is at its most obvious peak, yet before the draft when they’ll likely bring in a rookie, and before the season where he might be a solid FF WR2, which wouldn’t be as buzzy.
Definitely food for thought. Were I in a position to win now, I’d probably consider doing something like that.
GreenNGold
Footballguy
Like others, I was already high on Davis before his big game. His big game may have spoiled my plans as I was planning to get Davis cheap in every draft next year. Now, I'll have to wait and see how high other owners are on him.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Right now he’s penciled in (maybe penned) as the #2 in one of the best passing attacks so that means something. Free agency isn’t finished and then there’s the draft but right now the arrow points up.
DropKick
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
He’s checking in as worth 2.01 on keeptradecut.com. Sounds about right.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I put him around 1000 yards, 8-10TDs.
The Bills coaching staff has a proven track record of sticking with veteran guys they like over younger better options.
If they didn’t have this philosophy Davis would have put up these numbers this year, and I suspect the Bills would have been the #1 seed and in the Super Bowl.
The Bills coaching staff has a proven track record of sticking with veteran guys they like over younger better options.
If they didn’t have this philosophy Davis would have put up these numbers this year, and I suspect the Bills would have been the #1 seed and in the Super Bowl.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
2.01 - probably hard pressed to get an owner to move him for that, what with sugar plum visions of glorious success dancing about their heads.
What rookie at 2.01 has Davis’ upside?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it took a 1st round pick to pry him away. At least. Even then, personally, I still wouldn’t sell in 2022.
I look at it like this: if someone offered me London, or Wilson, would I accept? What about Olave? Nope. Nope & nope.
Davis is already in a great situation, with proved talent and arguably a top 3 QB. There are a whole lot of receptions vacated by Beasley & Sanders, and Davis might find his way to ~100 targets. With his prolific nose for the end zone, you’ll have to pry him from my cold, dead fingers.
lol
