Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I did - at the beginning of this season. I'd have to join another dynasty to get him again.
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WR Gabriel Davis, Free Agent (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Davis or 11/12 coul also easily depend on the league. In FFPC with smaller rosters I can see taking 11/12 before cuts. I can see taking Davis after cuts. I can see taking 11/12 in leagues with bigger rosters or superflex leagues.
Davis is a good player in a great situation and will very likely have the coveted opportunity starting next year.
Talent + opportunity + QB
Obviously that changes if they draft a 1st round WR.
Davis is a good player in a great situation and will very likely have the coveted opportunity starting next year.
Talent + opportunity + QB
Obviously that changes if they draft a 1st round WR.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm trading Davis with probability in mind. If those guys go in the early second round like I think, they've got about a 60 and 33 percent chance of hitting, respectively. That means I have two shots at a hit, whereas Davis is my only shot at the hit. It would be prob stat EV of one of the two hitting (60 and 33 percent) vs. Davis's likelihood (18 percent).
I like the former chances better.
The Gator
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I was told there would be no math. :(
This is one of those times I think the context of the 2022 draft and Davis' upside make this less about the probability of what might happen with those two picks & more about what we've seen to date + opportunity.
Sorry, math.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I see Buffalo drafting Oline or Dline if there are decent options at their spot. Their depth is surprisingly thin at DT, Star won’t be around for more than 1 more yr and I am skeptical they will extend Oliver after year 5. I could be wrong.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Tbh; it wouldn’t bother me that much. Sanders likely gone, Beasley 32-33, they’ll probably have to draft a WR.
id be more concerned if they re-signed Sanders.
rockaction
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Holy effing poopballs they brought in Sanders because he can play. They wanted to beat the Chiefs and others and to get more weapons. That wasn't an indictment of Davis, a raw 21 year old at the time. Anyway my expectations are tempered but what he has already produced at the NFL level renders the draft capital argument completely moot.
I do think they bring in more talent though, thru FA or draft or both. But no reason he can't be around that WR2/3 fringe for many years.
Top tier offenses have been supporting multiple fantasy relevant receiving options for years. There is a really strong chance he is cemented as the 2 with Diggs going forward.
I do think they bring in more talent though, thru FA or draft or both. But no reason he can't be around that WR2/3 fringe for many years.
Top tier offenses have been supporting multiple fantasy relevant receiving options for years. There is a really strong chance he is cemented as the 2 with Diggs going forward.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
18 TDs before his 23rd birthday.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Please keep me posted in the dynasty topic if you do move him in any leagues. I’m curious as to what you’ll get.
rockaction
Footballguy
I hope people remember that the argument is the 1.11 and the 1.12 vs. Gabriel Davis. This isn't to tear down Davis. It's about an assessment of hit rates and probability. Jakob Sanderson, in the thread I linked above has him in the 2.2-2.4 range. That's what keeptradecut has him at. 2.2.
And everybody's mileage may vary.
And everybody's mileage may vary.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That’s one dude’s opinion.
I get the probability of hitting on 1.11 & 1.12
One dude in my league hasn’t hit on a pick in like 4 years. And he didn’t make outrageous reaches - just has had crap luck with injuries, Ruggs, etc.
I’m hit & miss myself. If I’m picking 11 & 12 in a deep draft like last year, sure. But this year I’m not seeing two players with Davis’ upside.
Gimme the bird in the hand.
BigJim®
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
It's a Peter Howard article and study. 18% is the rate we'd expect him to attain a top 24 finish given his collegiate breakout age combined with his draft capital. It's an eighteen or so year study. It's really probably not accurate in this particular case. I think it gives too short a shrift to his production in the NFL at his age. But as part of a group, he has an 18.33% chance of "hitting," where hitting is finishing in the top 24 of receivers. I took Pickens's breakout age and likely draft capital as well as Dotson's and used those, giving me the 60 and 33 percent. Pickens's is more of an approximation between the first and second round, averaged. This isn't really supposed to be perfectly accurate, it more paints a picture about the reasoning I'm using.
rockaction
Footballguy
And I'm just doing this for discussion. I'm not looking to hoodwink or prove that I'm right (though we all love being right). At all. I hope that doesn't get lost in this. I learn from this as much as I'm declaring certain things. I'm trying to work out probabilities so that I become a better player in the dynasty game. I'm still learning a lot.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Here’s a Davis believer telling us 10 months ago why Davis was a buy. That article among other opinions, was why I targeted him.
https://fantasyinframes.com/2021-dynasty-target-gabriel-davis/
https://fantasyinframes.com/2021-dynasty-target-gabriel-davis/
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Draft capital, meaning one of the inputs to the equation is based on his being a 4th round pick?
Personally I am Inclined to discount the draft capital aspect in favor of what he’s shown in the NFL to date.
There are always outliers. NFL teams miss players who slip all the time. Davis seems to be a rare recipient of the right combination of size & skill to succeed at the NFL level, and he’s also lucky enough to be in an high powered offense, with an elite QB. That combination of circumstances sure checks a lot of boxes.
Boo math!
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, like the SI article that we both didn't like that bolstered the "sell Davis" position, I don't trust this one, either. It's all anecdotal and based on faulty premises, it seems. Or I should say non-verifiable, shaky premises. And the writer "recently" caught the dynasty bug. There's no meat to it other than an explanation of his situation leading up to the year. There was no way he was worth an early second or a late first before this year. I just find that mind-boggling that the guy would assess it at that.
But thanks for posting. I just didn't groove on it.
BigJim®
Footballguy
According to the linked RB study, 6th round RBs have a 0% hit rate for stated output goal. Would an extension of this methodology conclude one must trade Elijah Mitchell for Antonio Gandy Golden?
rockaction
Footballguy
Yes.
Naturally. That's been part of the crux of our debate.
For fantasy purposes, they miss a lot less than you'd think. Fourth rounders score more than 150 fantasy points in even only one given year at a rate of 16%. Out of a hundred guys drafted in the fourth round at WR, 16 of them will pass the threshold of 150 points once in their career. Fifth rounders clock in a bit higher, actually, at 19%, meaning one in five will hit one fifty at least once. But contrast that to first rounders, who approach a 75% rate of having at least one year over 150 points. And second rounders, who come close to 50%, or half of those drafted.
So they do miss. But not as often as one would think. For every Diggs, there's four guys that'll never sniff that.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Can you link me to that? I'm seeing about a ten percent hit rate for running backs in Rounds 5-7 in one study, that it happens once every other year in Peter Howard's study, etc. Gandy-Golden played for a really, really small school and was taken in the third. He's a bust and was from Day One. I think it's safe to say that saying a guy didn't make it over another but should have based on probability, therefore the probability rates are flawed in applying them to each individual situation, is not an endeavor I'd sign off on. I also wouldn't rigidly use the data. Gandy-Golden came with a huge caveat to begin with, so, I mean, you'd have to factor in that he's played zero snaps for the WFT and his breakout would be stunning.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
People were trading 2nd rounders to get him last offseason. That was his value then.
BigJim®
Footballguy
It’s the first sentence of the WR study. I’m not using 5-7; I’m focusing on 6th - which oddly has a lower hit rate than 7th.
Sticking with WR, if we stepped into a time machine following Stefon Diggs’ 2nd season, what would you have argued was obvious value for a former 5th round receiver using this methodology? Second round rookie? Third round? He only had 7 TDs combined his first 2 seasons.
rockaction
Footballguy
Ah, okay. I found it. That's 10 PPG career-long for RBs. Elijah Mitchell will have to go a ways before he satisfies that requirement. But I'll grant that he has so far.
Look at the other RB rates from the other articles. They definitely say that on a seasonal basis, it's viable that there are top twelve finishes out of the sixth round. But they don't happen often.
And you can cherry pick Mitchell and Diggs as guys who made it to say that the methodology is wrong, but we're talking about all the players in the NFL coming from college. The methodology misses every so often, but at a lower rate than just throwing darts or taking situations and hoping. I could ruin any methodology with specific examples of times where probability didn't lead us to believe a certain thing would happen and yet it did. Anybody can do that.
I think the best thing is to use data to narrow it down and then to figure out the exceptions and situational stuff. If someone keeps proving it, then it is indeed happening. I wouldn't deny that. Probability only says that the rates of success are lower for lower draft capital guys. That's all. And that third-year breakouts don't happen more than second-year ones do.
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rockaction
Footballguy
As far as Diggs goes, I wouldn't look at his touchdowns as a predictor of future success. I look at targets, yards, yards per routes run, targets per routes run, etc. I don't look at them unless the touchdowns might be uniquely related to size (like Davis's might be). You'd have to look at RZ opportunities, a whole host of things. Taller receivers, per PFF, score more in the red zone that shorter ones. It's correlated, touchdowns and height. So I'd look at that and take it into consideration if he were tall, but wouldn't hold it against the 6'0" Diggs. I think otherwise you're regressing to the mean if you bank on touchdowns.
Diggs had over 110 targets his sophomore season in the NFL. That would have gotten my attention right quick. But he didn't really get cooking until 2017. I don't know. I would have offered a late second or early third for him back then in 2016, I guess.
So I don't know. You'd have to judge.
Diggs had over 110 targets his sophomore season in the NFL. That would have gotten my attention right quick. But he didn't really get cooking until 2017. I don't know. I would have offered a late second or early third for him back then in 2016, I guess.
So I don't know. You'd have to judge.
BigJim®
Footballguy
It’s interesting to me you are calling it cherry picking. This exchange began with me questing an 18% forecast on a guy who has had a historic performance, couple with above average 2 season beginning.
I’m certainly not cherry picking with Elijah Mitchell. I’m interested what his current hit % projection is using this methodology… I suspect it must still be under 10% as a 6th rounder who has limited success/injury in a rookie season only - and therefore multitudes less likely than a 1.12 given your prior numbers. But how less likely? Same likelihood as a 3rd rounder? A 4th?
I suppose Diggs’ could be called a cherry pick, if you are one of the few FFers not very excited at what he showed his initial 2 seasons. As a 5th rounder who had limited TDs though, suspect this methodology would need to have had him less than the 18% calculated for Davis. Like the 18% for Davis, I’d have disagreed with that also.
rockaction
Footballguy
"Cherry picking" was the wrong phrase. I'm sorry. Those are concrete examples of guys who might hit, and wondering what they're worth, probability-wise, is part and parcel to the game. That's fair.
Great questions. I really can't answer with certainty. I'd have to get better at it and be able to really hammer down the probabilities. I can tell you Mitchell goes for about a mid-first, which sounds right. It sounds right because he did almost "hit," but for injury. He almost had the PPG to finish as a top twelve back when he was in games. That's the "hit" we're speaking of, which is harder to "hit" than the receivers, who only need a top 24 finish once in their career to "hit."
So...I'm not sure what to tell you.
Great questions. I really can't answer with certainty. I'd have to get better at it and be able to really hammer down the probabilities. I can tell you Mitchell goes for about a mid-first, which sounds right. It sounds right because he did almost "hit," but for injury. He almost had the PPG to finish as a top twelve back when he was in games. That's the "hit" we're speaking of, which is harder to "hit" than the receivers, who only need a top 24 finish once in their career to "hit."
So...I'm not sure what to tell you.
rockaction
Footballguy
Here's an interesting Tweet about Mitchell. I assume "DC" means draft capital.
Blake
@BlakeAHampton
·
12h
Elijah Mitchell is the Austin Ekeler Corollary. It’ll take a couple of years of proving himself before the market catches up with his actual value due to DC.
Blake
@BlakeAHampton
·
12h
Elijah Mitchell is the Austin Ekeler Corollary. It’ll take a couple of years of proving himself before the market catches up with his actual value due to DC.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
All leagues are different as I doubt I could pull one first rounder for him. My league is pretty conservative and the fear of overpaying for a “Timmy Smith-like” playoff performance looms in the back of everyone’s mind. Do we really think Davis is the type of talent to succeed against the defenses best corner week in and week out? I am not sure he has that in him. He is however tied to arguably the best FF QB in the game right now in a pass heavy scheme. If Diggs hangs around and eats up top coverage Davis has shown he has enough talent to capitalize. It really depends on what your team needs are and what your leagues market presents. I am definitely unloading for two firsts or a high first but I am deep at WR. A better trade for me would be to seek RB depth so I will probably test the waters there to see what return is available.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I put him on the block in a handful of leagues last night. Haven't got any bites yet but a couple of the teams I have for sale on DD have been bid up and will sell, both with Davis on roster. I looked at those and others - 2.10 is the most I paid for Davis last year in any offseason trade. And I did buy several shares last year, but it was always 3rd and 4ths for the most part, though a couple of deals like the 2.10 or a future 2nd. I also got him off waivers late in the season this year in a couple spots. Teams where I drafted him in the rookie draft it was 3rd and 4th round. But I kept him because I liked him and there were very positive rookie TC/PS blurbs, despite the original covid situation in 2020.
Which is why draft capital still matters for a player like Davis. If Buffalo had invested a 1st in Davis two years ago, they’d be far less likely to invest a 1st in a WR this year. Instead they invested a 4th, and that makes them a very possible landing spot for someone like Drake London in the late 1st.
And if that were to happen, Davis’ value goes down the toilet.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I disagree with this premise.
Where Davis was drafted is very likely irrelevant to how the Bills view Davis on-field success.
They need to obtain a WR somehow - they have a soon to be 33 year old Beasley & Sanders likely leaving.
If a WR falls to them & they take him, I see that as having very little impact on Gabriel Davis, considering the success he’s had in the NFL. Color me skeptical.
You think the Bills investing a 1st in a WR would have very little impact on Davis? Eeks. That’s just…not logical?
I’m a big believer in Davis (and owner in about half my leagues), but this draft will be a sweat for him. If the Bills don’t invest heavily in a WR, he’s got a chance to really establish himself. If they do, he could suffer through yet another season of WR3/4 usage and have a much, much tougher path to long-term relevancy.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Completely logical when I look at Davis’ numbers.
Your premise that a rookie WR of as-yet undetermined NFL-level talent is going to leapfrog Davis simply because he went in the first round isn’t very sound either.
I agree that his draft position doesn't have much bearing at this stage, however how much "success" has he really had in the NFL.
2021: 35 rec for 549 & 6 TD's on 63 targets
2020: 39/684/7/66
I would say he actually regressed a bit between year 1 and year 2 and that he hasn't really had "success". I think he can be successful but Buffalo bringing in Sanders and using Beasley in spite of Davis makes me wonder a bit.
Obviously he has skill and can play at the NFL level but I wonder why he hasn't done better to this point.
Also, I wasn’t disagreeing with this. I’m arguing against the idea that draft capital “doesn’t matter” at this stage. It may not matter in how a team views a player that they drafted later in the draft, but it absolutely matters in terms of a teams willingness to invest in a position (especially a non-premium one) that they invested heavily in during a recent draft. A team that invests a high pick (call it 1st or 2nd) in a RB, WR, or TE, for example, is far less likely to follow those picks up a year or two later with another RB, WR, or TE.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
have to be on the field to do more. Every time he’s had targets he’s had success. See my post above.
they brought in Manny Sanders & Davis became the WR4. He only started a handful of games, and had 2-4 targets a game for 12 of his games this year.
but check out what happened when he had more than 4 targets. Very sexy numbers indeed.
Right, because I’m sure plenty of teams are going to invest a 1st rounder in a WR to upgrade their WR3.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not sure what you’re basing this on. I understand this is largely how group-think believes, but it doesn’t seem very scientific or predictable.
players bust all the time. How many years did DET invest a 1st round pick in a WR? How many consecutively?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Rookie WRs are totally known for their ability to come into the NFL & dominate, huh?Right, because I’m sure plenty of teams are going to invest a 1st rounder in a WR to upgrade their WR3.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think that was more of a function of not drafting well and doubling down on not doing well.
rockaction
Footballguy
I think it's sort of important to listen to homers and how they feel about the draft, too, though I obviously agree with SayWhat? because that's part of the draft capital concern with a lower-round player occupying a spot where dynamism, immediacy, and lethality come into play.
It was not good for Willie Gay when KC used a pick on Nick Bolton in the same round the very next year. Not good for Reagor when the Eagles went for Devonta Smith. Etc., etc. It's worse if the guy has more draft capital than you on your own team. Unless you're Diggs or Antonio Brown, it's a worry.
Buffalo is not likely to take a receiver, per the homers. I don't really see a need, either.
It was not good for Willie Gay when KC used a pick on Nick Bolton in the same round the very next year. Not good for Reagor when the Eagles went for Devonta Smith. Etc., etc. It's worse if the guy has more draft capital than you on your own team. Unless you're Diggs or Antonio Brown, it's a worry.
Buffalo is not likely to take a receiver, per the homers. I don't really see a need, either.
They sure are given the opportunity to, aren’t they?Rookie WRs are totally known for their ability to come into the NFL & dominate, huh?
Nah, you’ve changed my mind. If the Bills dump a 1st on a WR it’s because they want to move on from Cole Beasley in the slot. Wouldn’t impact Gabriel Davis at all. Noted. Good luck man.
