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WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Garrett Wilson is undervalued this season. Most sites have him WR17 to WR19. I think there are 3 main reasons for his ranking:
1) Low TD totals
2) Justin Fields as his QB
3) He was WR22 from weeks 7-18 last year, was WR25 in 2023, and WR21 in 2022
3 reasons I like him this year:
1) Davante Adams left for LAR. He has averaged 9.5 targets per game in his 40 games without Davante, and that dropped to 7.9 with him from weeks 7-18. Conklin also left, freeing up even more targets. Wilson is going to be in the top 3 in targets this year.
2) The Jets suck. And sucky teams have to pass. And when your WR2 is Allen Lazard, your WR1 is a god!
3) He was WR9 last year, but is being discounted because his stats dropped when Davante came to town. He was WR7 through the first 6 games.
1) Low TD totals
2) Justin Fields as his QB
3) He was WR22 from weeks 7-18 last year, was WR25 in 2023, and WR21 in 2022
3 reasons I like him this year:
1) Davante Adams left for LAR. He has averaged 9.5 targets per game in his 40 games without Davante, and that dropped to 7.9 with him from weeks 7-18. Conklin also left, freeing up even more targets. Wilson is going to be in the top 3 in targets this year.
2) The Jets suck. And sucky teams have to pass. And when your WR2 is Allen Lazard, your WR1 is a god!
3) He was WR9 last year, but is being discounted because his stats dropped when Davante came to town. He was WR7 through the first 6 games.
Chaka
Footballguy
That feels like revisionist history. Wilson had one bomb game (8-162-0 on 15 targets) in White's first start against a bottom three Minnesota defense. It was a mixed bag of mostly nothing in White's other three starts. Zero TDs during that span.
Fields>>>...<<<...???>\<][✓=÷????White???
Let's just post stats for all of his QB's
with Zach Wilson - 102/1235/2 in 21 games = per game average of 4.9 catches, 58.8 yards, .1 TD
with Aaron Rodgers - 101/1104/7 in 17 games = per game average of 5.9 catches, 64.9 yards, .4 TD
with Joe Flacco - 27/303/2 in 4 games = per game average of 6.8 catches, 75.8 yards, .5 TD
with Mike White - 22/353/2 in 4 games = per game average of 5.5 catches, 88.3 yards, .5 TD
with Trevor Siemian - 16/160/0 in 3 games = per game average of 5.3 catches, 53.3 yards, 0 TD
with Tim Boyle - 10/94/1 in 2 games = per game average of 5.0 catches, 47 yards, .5 TD
Its a bit less than those guys, but its top-5 money. Its more akin to DK Metcalf (probably a comparable WR) or AJ Brown (A FAR superior WR)
Not a big fan of the move by the Jets really. Maybe I'm being unfair holding his QB play against him, but I still wonder if Wilson isn't more, good than great, ala DJ Moore.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
by the time the extension kicks in it will be around #10 in WR salary - regardless had to lock him up. He's produced with absolute trash at QB and being ignored by Rodgers for Devante. GW has earned his Jet stripes and hoping Fields can develop and they turn into a solid connection.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Early to mid 3rd round pick, ~WR15. I dunno, honestly the price feels about right on Wilson to me. Could he exceed his ADP, for sure. I can also see just about as many scenarios where he fails to meet it.
From a draft philosophy standpoint, gun to my head, I would actually say I personally think he's a little rich for a guy with such a wide range of outcomes. By the third round I am willing to take a little more risk with my picks, but I think I'd still lean towards what appears to be a safer floor with a guy like Davante Adams in that range. Or move off WR completely and snag a top 3 QB or a top 3 TE there instead.
From a draft philosophy standpoint, gun to my head, I would actually say I personally think he's a little rich for a guy with such a wide range of outcomes. By the third round I am willing to take a little more risk with my picks, but I think I'd still lean towards what appears to be a safer floor with a guy like Davante Adams in that range. Or move off WR completely and snag a top 3 QB or a top 3 TE there instead.
jm192
Footballguy
WR11 for me.
Same problem as always. The TD upside feels limited.
But other than that, it feels like we've overcorrected. DJ Moore had a very nice season with Justin Fields at QB. I think Fields is perfectly capable of supporting ONE really good fantasy receiver. Wilson is arguably the best receiver he will have ever played with.
The Jets don't have a lot of target competition.
The Jets predicted Win total is 5.5-6.5 depending on where you look. If we expect them to lose football games, then we should expect them to be passing late a lot.
I don't look at the roster and think "This could be one of those surprise teams." I guess that's why it's a surprise when teams do it. But I just don't see a world in which Wilson isn't succeeding short of injury.
Same problem as always. The TD upside feels limited.
But other than that, it feels like we've overcorrected. DJ Moore had a very nice season with Justin Fields at QB. I think Fields is perfectly capable of supporting ONE really good fantasy receiver. Wilson is arguably the best receiver he will have ever played with.
The Jets don't have a lot of target competition.
The Jets predicted Win total is 5.5-6.5 depending on where you look. If we expect them to lose football games, then we should expect them to be passing late a lot.
I don't look at the roster and think "This could be one of those surprise teams." I guess that's why it's a surprise when teams do it. But I just don't see a world in which Wilson isn't succeeding short of injury.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Wilson is light years better than DJ Moore or Mooney and I don't mean that as a slight against those guys but I don't think there is anyone in the league more talented than Wilson. Not saying he is the best but he has it all.
I absolutely love the bolded. I think it's more profound than meets the eye. I *do* think this is a team that could surprise, based on my take that Fields has improved significantly each season and these are by far the best offensive weapons he has ever had. But, to the point of the bolded, they probably won't because I expect it. It's gonna be someone I don't suspect at all like Tennessee or something.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I was heckled by a couple of leaguemates in a recent startup for taking GW over MH2
Now I know who in my league actually watches football and who does not.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Damn crickets in here. People scared if Fields? Scared of Glenn? Both? Elite talent in the prime of his career. Should be a lock for 160 plus targets.
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
Scared of the same. Elite talent with mediocre QB play
FarFromHome
Footballguy
We all want Mahomes and Burrow throwing to our wrs, but at point does a truck load of targets overcome that? Who is the Jets #2 wr? Reynolds? Lazard?
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Obviously we assume with Glenn they want to run the ball. I get that. Jets defense is middle of the pack right? Just seems like they gonna have to throw. When they do it's gotta be Wilson. Imo
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
I think you are overestimating fields if you think he is the tier below mahomes and burrow
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
Yeah we want a top 5 guy of course, but I'd be content with a Baker or Stafford level guy. Fields isn't a guy i want throwing to someone I'm likely starting as my WR2 (insert DJ Moore argument here).
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I do not think he is a tier below those. Ha ha. Prolly should have used Cousins and Stafford. Ha ha
Desert_Power
Footballguy
It's an interesting thought because both have had awful QB play. Of course, DJ had his best season with Fields.
Proteus
Footballguy
At the point where Fields learns to avoid a sack. Crazy how someone so mobile is so bad at this.
FantasyMC
Footballguy
This is why I'm not worried about Wilson having Fields throwing to him.
W.A.L.S.T.I.B.
Footballguy
I think the Jets have a top 10 D. They will run a lot to fit the mold Glenn is building but I still expect them to throw out of design, not in need of playing catch up.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
For the record. I bumped this and pushed conversation because I view your brains and opinions as my best resource of information. I still cant make a decision on Wilson but I'm trying. Ha ha
W.A.L.S.T.I.B.
Footballguy
Wilson and Fields were a hell of a combo at tOSU and I expect that connection to carry over. I think Wilson is in line for his best season to date.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
checking FBG ranking, he's roughly WR20 redraft and just outside the top 10 WR mark in dyno; and those are about right imo... he's barely go over 1100 yards each season and only has 14 total TDs and he's now 25. Not his fault; if he was on a good offense... even as a #2 he would be great but the Jets are killers of careers
Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
I look at him this way: if I can get him as a WR 3 in a start 3 WR league, I'm ecstatic. Maybe you went something like Nico and Henry in the first and second and Higgins and Wilson in the 3/4.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Damn. Most of my life I've just always believed I'm the smartest guy in the room. Then stuff like this humbles me. Mahalo. I had no idea they were teammates in college. Smh. Handing over my man card. Ha ha
W.A.L.S.T.I.B.
Footballguy
Seems a bit harsh, I was only clarifying why I believe Wilson will have a solid year. YMMV.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
My bad. You took that differently then I intended. I was actually complimenting you because I had no idea they were college teamates. My bad for coming across like u took it. Wasnt my intent at allSeems a bit harsh, I was only clarifying why I believe Wilson will have a solid year. YMMV.
W.A.L.S.T.I.B.
Footballguy
All good, my man!My bad. You took that differently then I intended. I was actually complimenting you because I had no idea they were college teamates. My bad for coming across like u took it. Wasnt my intent at allSeems a bit harsh, I was only clarifying why I believe Wilson will have a solid year. YMMV.
All good, my man!My bad. You took that differently than I intended. I was actually complimenting you because I had no idea they were college teamates. My bad for coming across like u took it. Wasnt my intent at allSeems a bit harsh, I was only clarifying why I believe Wilson will have a solid year. YMMV.
cdclopper
Footballguy
Fields can't throw
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
But he can’t throw it to Wilson the most!
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
everyone has value eventually.
He might be the biggest non-injury related ADP faller in the past few weeks. Is it justified? Perhaps, valid reasons for sure, but I'm having a hard time not tapping on him in my drafts in the range he goes now.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
By the time they get him a solid WR2 to pair with, by the time they get a QB to throw him the ball his prime will be over
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I want him to fall to the 4th or 5th in my home league tomorrow. His target share is gonna be amazing.
Chemical X
Footballguy
this: as a fan, mougey is left in essentially the same position that douglas began with, though i could argue that the jest have the makings of an O line. without a QB, this team will remain rudderless. missing on sanchez, darnold and wilson is quite amazing given the draft capital spent. if he doesn’t find a QB and soon, Wilson will be wasted and the playoffs a pipe dream. it would’ve been a hard sell tanking out this year, but now that wilson and gardner are locked up, i am kind of hopeful fields can bring them a 2-15 rather than a 5-12. they have no chance of the playoffs this year, might as well just punk it.
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
I’m just focused on Wilson’s stock falling lately and maybe being a value as he might be able to overcome Fields due to sheer volume and meshing with Fields better then he did with Rodgers.
Chemical X
Footballguy
wilson has had decent volume and numbers even with the garbage they have rolled out. if this team is playing from behind as much as i think, wilson could be a top 10 wr. i mean, fields has to throw to someone and you figure he completes some of them…..
Yes you are correct of course he's had good volume and that's why some people are turned off by him because even with being 4th in the league in targets weeks 1-17 he was more ok then outstanding.
I think that's a reasonable concern but the two things I'd say to that is he might mesh better with Fields, even if they had not played together before. Rodgers likes precision route runners who are were they are supposed to be on time and Wilson's a known freelancer which should work out better for Wilson's style.
And the other thing is where he's priced I'll take if if he's merely ok again, I might wish for more but will appreciate the high floor due to volume. I drafted him last night in a FFPC ME in mid round 4 as WR19 as an example of how much his stock has been dropping back in May of this same event his ADP was 2.11 and he was going as WR12.
I'm not actually sure what turned off people so much since that time? If Fields looked worse then people expected not sure what they've been watching the last few years.
Chemical X
Footballguy
WR 19 seems too low.
