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WR Jahan Dotson, PHI (1 Viewer)
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rockaction
Footballguy
This guy has almost single-handedly wrecked my FFA Summerpalooza team. This guy gets you goose eggs and ones. It's absurd how fast and how far he's fallen. You just can't put him in as a starter. What a letdown! This is like Christian Watson and my dynasty team. Two second-year inexcusable duds.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I'd lost track of the thread and got a good laugh out of yesterday breezing through the box scores. How does a guy go from:
HEALTHY week 6- GOOSE On one target
Week 7- 5/43 on 8 targets
Week 8- 8/108 +1 on 10 targets
Week 9- 4/69 +1 on 8 targets
Week 10- GOOSE on two targets in a game with 44!!!! pass attempts and 29 completions. Not like a wind game anomaly. Was out targeted by the following players: John Bates, Antonio Gibson, McLaruin, Brian Robinson, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas. Tied with the immortal Dyami Brown and Byron Pringle. At least he had one more than Alex Armah and Jamo Crowder.
I was legit bummed out that I had to drop him. I'm not sure I win this past week if he's in my lineup and might need a mental health check after this if I'd held him.
FWIW, he's young and in an "ascending" offense so maybe there's hope. As mentioned upthread, Harmon is a fan so he'll always have folks believing and waiting to scoop him up. If you have room on your roster for a guy that might need a year and otherwise steer clear of the lineup for a bit, he's a good candidate IMO.
HEALTHY week 6- GOOSE On one target
Week 7- 5/43 on 8 targets
Week 8- 8/108 +1 on 10 targets
Week 9- 4/69 +1 on 8 targets
Week 10- GOOSE on two targets in a game with 44!!!! pass attempts and 29 completions. Not like a wind game anomaly. Was out targeted by the following players: John Bates, Antonio Gibson, McLaruin, Brian Robinson, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas. Tied with the immortal Dyami Brown and Byron Pringle. At least he had one more than Alex Armah and Jamo Crowder.
I was legit bummed out that I had to drop him. I'm not sure I win this past week if he's in my lineup and might need a mental health check after this if I'd held him.
FWIW, he's young and in an "ascending" offense so maybe there's hope. As mentioned upthread, Harmon is a fan so he'll always have folks believing and waiting to scoop him up. If you have room on your roster for a guy that might need a year and otherwise steer clear of the lineup for a bit, he's a good candidate IMO.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Yeah, it's been ..... weird. Zero clue what to expect but I'm glad it's a dynasty league for me and that I generally don't need him.
Balco
Footballguy
If I were an nfl gm I would be seeing what the price is for Dotson in the offseason. My guess is regime change in Washington next season and the new coach/gm will want to feature Dotson and not move him.
Dotson is a great receiver that isn’t being utilized the way he should be.
zamboni
Footballguy
To be fair, you could say the same about target volatility for about 90% (if not more) of WRs out there. There are only a few WRs, notably Tyreek, CeeDee, Chase, Jefferson, and Diggs, that get that kind of volume consistently. And it's not like Dotson is even the #1 WR on his own team.
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Drake Hater
Footballguy
Yep. This is the WR3 experience in FF.
efactor
Footballguy
Three weeks previous, 8, 10 and 8 targets. Back to back nice games. Then 2 targets yesterday. Every time the red zone switched to the game, it was check downs to RBs or short throws to Thomas. Also, Crowder, Brown and Pringle on the field. McLaurin had 8 targets but only 4 catches for 35 yards. Looks like Brown had the only actual downfield catch. Robinson's long play was a check down that he took to the house. In defense of Dotson, you can't catch the ball if they don't throw it to you. Same with Olave yesterday. Before Carr went out, he had no targets, so not surprisingly, no catches. Jameis comes in and Olave ends up with almost 100 yards and a score in about a quarter and a half and the Saints almost make a comeback after being down huge.
I only have one share of Dotson that I picked up off waivers, so he's a bench guy but still from a real football point of view, hard to understand why they totally ignored him yesterday after being heavily targeted the last 3 weeks. Guess part of it was Samuel coming back and getting 6 targets.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
@zamboni , that's not really what I've seen in watching the snap counts and targets all year. Absent injury or game script stuff, most WRs have less variance in their ts than what it's been for him this year. Might be a Curtis Samuel thing for him.
A top 30 NFL talent WR in a system throwing the ball 44 times on the field for 95% of the snaps gets two targets. Makes zero sense.
A top 30 NFL talent WR in a system throwing the ball 44 times on the field for 95% of the snaps gets two targets. Makes zero sense.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
At Penn State there were times Doston even with his speed had issues with separation. I am thinking that is starting to get translated into the pros. The guy can look like a poor man's JJ pone week, then just disappear the next.
The idea that he played 95% of thee offensive snaps and only get two balls his way makes me thing he was having issues getting open.
zamboni
Footballguy
I can't speak to the stats, but as mentioned above, just about all WRs have variance - some more than others. Just a nature of the position in which you need the QB to deliver you the ball. To Howell's credit, he doesn't force the ball, but has effectively used a bunch of WRs. I know this from having had Dotson earlier in the year.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Was Samuel back? That would explain it
Football Jones
Footballguy
Yep. I was just getting ready to post this.
Dotson is a nice play ONLY if Samuel is out.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Just took Dotson in the mid 12th round of a SF Best Ball PPR Dynasty league. While he was a HUGE disappointment this year, I have to hope next year with a better coaching staff and possibly better QB he could see a return to the promise he showed his rookie year. Or am I kidding myself here???
Harjiran
Footballguy
Dotson seems like a fine dart throw in the 12th round. The talent and draft capital are there for sure, and imo one of the keys to winning your league is buying these types of players when their value has dipped. For a 2024 sleeper Dotson checks all of the boxes for me - on the subject of the Commanders I'd also be targeting Cole Turner and Chris Rodriguez in deeper leagues.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Cole Turner is a mystery to me. His rookie year he was banged up, so I didn't expect much, but this year, I haven't read about any significant injury and yet he's been a distant 3rd most targeted TE on the roster.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Dallas best CB takes McLaurin out of the game leaving Dotson to tear it up.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Nobody takes McLaurin out the game...except the Washington play calling/QB.
32 Counter Pass
Footballguy
I am holding out slim hope that Dotson becomes a relevant asset this coming season. I am skeptical because there isn't a strong history of a rookie QB supporting two fantasy-relevant WRs.
rockaction
Footballguy
I'm not sure there's much of an excuse that can be given to Dotson for his performance last year. I remember that on Twitter/X they were showing him quit on routes and other plays that showed a lack of basic hustle. That's bad. And running that many routes and never seeing targets? One has to hope that either he and Howell were never on the same page or that Eric Bieniemy had him running clearing route after clearing route so that the underneath guys could operate in the space he created. Otherwise, a performance that bad portends mediocrity on the field and on the stat sheet.
Could probably also argue Curtis Samuel (at least at this point in their careers) was just better, and Howell threw to the guy who was more open, or more likely to make guys miss after the catch. I think moving to the slot full-time will probably help, but its possible Dotson is just a mediocre WR who Washington reached on in round 1, and he happened to have a hot stretch of TDs as a rookie. Except for the team change, his resume through 2 years is awfully similar to Elijah Moore.
Some of that could probably be offset by Washington being the most pass heavy team in the NFL last season and having a clear cut #1 in McLaurin. Being on the field for the team with the most attempts, but being a tertiary option makes sense.4th in NFL in pass routes ... Bizarre.x.com
x.com
For example, Dotson only ran 30 more routes than Alec Pierce did, and had 16 more targets than Pierce.
Brunell4MVP
Footballguy
I expect a bounce back season. He seemed off last season. Whether that was EB's coaching style, the scheme, Howell not finding him, lingering injuries from year 1, personal reasons .. who knows. He certainly has WR2 talent. Hopefully better coaching makes his 3rd year a charm!
ffmail4me
Footballguy
There were a lot of rumblings that a LOT of the players weren't happy with EB and the offense. So maybe some of the players, Dotson included, stopped giving it their all. I know that sounds bad, but he sure looked like he loved football when EB wasn't there, and in college for that matter. So I think a bounce back is coming for sure.
fatness
Footballguy
It wasn't just receivers who quit on plays last year for Washington. Last year was a culmination of Rivera's bad decisions on personnel, coordinators, strategy, and time management that just sank the team. You can find film on various players quitting on plays. You can find descriptions of McLaurin arguing with Bienemy in practices. The wheels came off the entire team.
This season will be the one that shows Dotson's ability. I think he's quite good, runs good routes, and is excellent at contested catches. We'll see.
Harjiran
Footballguy
Depends on the offer but he's probably a hold for me. Excited to see what he can do in a real offense.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I own in a ton of dynasty leagues, so I'm bias for obvious reasons, but do have high hopes. He was just too good his rookie year in the half season where he was healthy to have suddenly forgot how to play football. I just think EB was that bad last year. He also has some pressure with McCaffrey in the room, so hopefully we see his best this year.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Can I just point out the hilarity of Rookie QB inconsistencies - in one thread, people are talking about Caleb Williams can't support WRs and account for the dip in production and then in Jahan Dotson forum everyone is taking Jahan Dotson to the moon.
I agree Jahan Dotson has a promising future. Most of the fantasy community has been beating this drum for a couple years but... I think the owners will get discouraged when Dotson and Daniels aren't connecting heavily for touchdowns. Then, I will probably acquire Jahan Dotson for cheaper than he is this offseason. I don't think I am acquiring any WR's with a rookie QB in redraft (yes, JJettas included).
I agree Jahan Dotson has a promising future. Most of the fantasy community has been beating this drum for a couple years but... I think the owners will get discouraged when Dotson and Daniels aren't connecting heavily for touchdowns. Then, I will probably acquire Jahan Dotson for cheaper than he is this offseason. I don't think I am acquiring any WR's with a rookie QB in redraft (yes, JJettas included).
jm192
Footballguy
I think Rookie QB's tend to cap what guys can do. But we just saw a rookie Stroud sling it to Nico and Tank Dell.
I DON'T think Caleb is going to support 3 really good receivers. I think he can have 1 WR1/WR2 caliber guy and maybe a WR3/4 caliber guy. Maybe he surprises us and has an amazing year with Moore and Allen. I don't think there's a path to Moore, Allen, and Odunze all being useful fantasy guys week in and week out.
As far as Daniels, I think he'll be the most talented quarterback McLaurin and Dotson have ever seen, and I think McLaurin probably has a banner year.
As far as Dotson though...I'm not predicting or projecting 1,000 yards for Dotson. Dotson is going in the WR60 range. I think at that range, you're swinging for upside. Am I banking on Dotson to have an elite season? Of course not, or I would draft him a lot higher. But I've gotta pick players in round 14/15. And I think Dotson has a better chance to hit than a lot of guys going in that range. Especially if you're talking Best ball where you're hoping for spike weeks.
TripItUp
Footballguy
As a counterargument, Dotson had an absurd TD rate his rookie year and should be entering his prime in year 3. McLaurin is good, but he's not a true alpha IMHO...I don't see a ton of target competition for Jahan when compared to other WR2s. I think there is a wide range of outcomes for Jahan given all of the datapoints. He is definitely a guy I'm taking swings on at his ADP.
jm192
Footballguy
I agree, and this is probably a better way of saying what I was trying to say haha. I'll have a lot of him too.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
How we feeling about this post-hype sleeper?
1st round pick, kid can fly, & get separation.
90 targets vacated by Samuel.
Two WR behind him are a slot rookie & Dyami Brown.
Daniels arm seems much better suited to Dotson’s game. IIRC I read that only 73% of Dotson’s targets were catchable.
I might try to deal for him.
1st round pick, kid can fly, & get separation.
90 targets vacated by Samuel.
Two WR behind him are a slot rookie & Dyami Brown.
Daniels arm seems much better suited to Dotson’s game. IIRC I read that only 73% of Dotson’s targets were catchable.
I might try to deal for him.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Good value this year though typically rookie QBs are bad news for WRs, especially the WR2 on the team.How we feeling about this post-hype sleeper?
1st round pick, kid can fly, & get separation.
90 targets vacated by Samuel.
Two WR behind him are a slot rookie & Dyami Brown.
Daniels arm seems much better suited to Dotson’s game. IIRC I read that only 73% of Dotson’s targets were catchable.
I might try to deal for him.
warpig33
Footballguy
Too many mouths to feed. I’m hearing Ertz, McCaffrey, McLaurin are all in for good seasons. Highly unlikely with a rookie QB. Latest I heard is that Daniels and McCaffrey are putting in work together and building a rapport together. And if McCaffrey is indeed the starting slot WR, I could see him having a better season than Dotson at least in year one for Daniels.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I try to think in terms of more than 1 year for dynasty, but to the point I don’t think McCaffery is on the same level of talent as Dotson.
Boston
Footballguy
It could be much worse as far as mouths to feed...McLaurin is legit but Ertz is 33 and not the player he once was, Mccaffrey is a nice prospect (who I do like) but he's also a 3rd round pick from Rice who has recently converted to the WR position...the rookie QB is a legit concern but as far as mouths to feed if Dotson is in-fact the real deal it is definitely not a big deal.
