Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think last year he showed he was more than just a slot. He won on the outside and in the redzone. I think 12m is closer to his value, but he's a stud.
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WR Jarvis Landry, Saints (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BeTheMatch
- Start date
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Last year he averaged 8.8 yards per catch. The TE, Julius Thomas averaged 9.5 and he got cut because he is terrible. 112 catches is awesome and the 9 TD are nice too...but he is being paid like a top 5 elite WR. he is a good player. He is FAR from elite.Concept Coop said:
8.8 yards per catch for a $15M/yr WR?
Here are his measurables. They are horrid...https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/jarvis-landry. I know on-field production is far more important, and he has shown that he is a good football player on the field, but the red flags of extraordinarily low YPC, terrible measurables, and reportedly an attitude issue (which I agree is probably nonsense, but its out there) all stand out to me.
ETA - If Jarvis Landry is worth $15M/yr, OBJ is worth $30M.
More ETA - Kenny Stills had only 150 less yards and 3 less TD on 54 less catches and 56 less targets.
Even MORE ETA - Antonio Brown produced 550 more yards on 2 more targets than Landry (in 2 less games). He now makes less money on average per year than Landry does.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
YPC is a measure of usage, not ability. Miami did what they could to move the ball with Cutler and Moore at QB and a struggling running game (for most of the season) - and that included a lot of safe, underneath looks to Landry.
Landry wasn't fully healthy during the pre-draft process and his measureables took a hit as a result. And at some point, all of that stops mattering. Nobody cares that Antonio Brown isn't a great athlete, by NFL standards.
15m is too much for Landry, in my opinion, but all of the big WRs this year were overpaid. And Cleveland has the money and will need to open up to land FAs, based on their track record.
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ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
We don't really disagree all that much on this.
But...Antonio Brown is only comparable to Jarvis Landry in salary. Brown is an elite WR who is now making less money than Landry, who I maintain is not even honorable mention when it comes to a discussion of elite WR in the NFL. Landry is a great WR2, chain moving poor man's Hines Ward.
ETA - I wonder if you can find any WR in the NFL who has averaged less than 8.8 YPC on their last 112 catches. Any TE? I don't know how to search that, but I doubt there are very many. That would dispel the argument that the low YPC is a result of high usage.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Not a result of high usage, a result of how he was used. His average target distance was only 6.1 yards. Yet he was third in the league in YAC and caught 70% of his targets.
Jello_Biafra
Footballguy
OBJ should get $20M a year after this. Not that Landry isn't good, he's very good, but how are teams supposed to sign their star players when teams like the Browns are just throwing money at players like this?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I know there was some off field stuff with Landry and they know him better than any other team does.
Not sure what issue Gase or the Dolphins may have with Landry besides that and money?
Maybe its legit, maybe its sour grapes, not sure.
From my perspective Landry is a player who wants to win and he sets the example by his play on the field. He seems like a player who is maxing out and giving extraordinary effort on a consistent basis. That is the type of personality that could lead to a positive change for the Browns as more players try to follow Landrys example.
The 5 year contract shows that Landry is committed to doing his part to turn the Browns around and start winning some games. They need more players like him.
I think it is a sour grapes thing. Miami was just very wrong here.
Landry is a Hines Ward type, but probably a better WR. He really gives it his all and tries his hardest to win each game or play. Sometimes he tries too hard and gets a penalty. Hines was also the most hated player for opponents for years. That's fine. If you don't want a guy like Landry on your team, I don't know what type of team you're trying to build.
Agree with your post in total. You've nailed him as a player.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
God forbid teams cant keep their studs on team friendly deals all the time while my browns have to overpay for everything.
Todem
Footballguy
He is a fierce competitor. I love the kid. He is a baller. However I had a chance to play some golf with a couple of current players.....it was really simple. He did not buy into Gase and does not believe in Ryan Tannehill.
They showed him the door.
He was a cancer in the locker room. He wanted out. SO they shipped him to Cleveland. He simply did not like the organization, coach or QB. And he was well liked by all his teammates. But he was talking too much and making it loud how unhappy he was with his coach and QB.
Go figure.....in either case the Dolphins lost their best all around player and really the best competitor they had on the field. But 15MM a year is pretty steep and I am a huge huge Landry fan. Just love his grit, energy and effort. But he is not an elite WR and Antonio Brown is paid less than him?
GTFOH.
13MM is the max I would have gave him for 5 years. The Browns gave him 10MM more than that total. Too much.
Good for him though. 47MM in the bank. Good for him. He works his ### off.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Its possible that Landry is right about Gase and Tannehill, but yeah I can see why they would make this move if he was creating waves with what Gase is trying to get the players to buy into.
Todem
Footballguy
Oh yeah he could be right. But Gase is the guy in charge and Tannehill is their QB in 2018. You are either on board or you're going to be shown the door (Ajayi, Landry two of their best pieces on offense are gone).
It will be another long season IMO down here and I have zero confidence in this organization. Nothing has gone right since Shula retired.
Nothing.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There's a better than even chance Gase and Tannehill are not in Miami next season.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
As a side note, Gase sucks. His only coaching achievement was coordinating Peyton Manning's offense. Jarvis Landry is in a better spot.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Getting a little off topic, but...cloppbeast said:
I think its way too soon to say that Gase sucks. I am a long time Fins fan, and by no means an apologist for the franchise. I have a love/hate relationship with this team, which has trended much more toward hate in recent seasons. However, Gase has been there 2 years. First year he took a very mediocre team to the playoffs. Second year he lost his starting QB in the preseason. Say what you will about Tannehill, he looked pretty not terrible in 2016. Cutler looked TERRIBLE in 2017. Tough to win with a mediocre team and a terrible QB. I dont know if Shula in his prime could have won too many more games with that drecht last season.
People moaned when he (the team, really) traded away Ajayi...and then Drake looked better in a starting role than Ajayi had. More people moaned when he didnt make Jarvis Landry (segue back to being on topic) one of the top 3 highest paid WR in the NFL. Time will tell on that one, but I have a good sense that it was the smart move. He isnt a $15M/Yr WR. Not even close IMO.
I am personally not ready to write off Gase. He gave us our most exciting season since Chad Pennington was at the helm a decade ago, and last year was not his fault.
ETA - 4 games is a small sample, but Gase is 2-2 as Fins Coach vs Belichek. Thats a more important stat than it looks like it is on first glance.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The Landry move would look a lot better if they hadn't just turned around and spent the same amount of money on Wilson/Amendola.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Meh. Both players averaged a whole lot more per catch than Landry did. I think people really get carried away by the catch volume with Landry. Literally any WR can run 2 yards and turn around, catch a ball and fall forward. 8.8 YPC for a WR is laughable. They got 2 WR for an average of $14M instead of one for an average of $15M. All 3 of them were probably overpaid, but as one who does not believe Landry is anything special, I would rather have that money diversified into 2 commodities rather than one. Landry goes down or flops, you have $15M on the IR or stealing money. If either of Miami's guys do the same, they only have half that money at risk. Both of those guys were pretty good last year too, granted on much lower volume.
If you believe Landry is a true game-changer, then I can see your point. I personally do not. He is a good role player, not an offensive focal point IMO.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not a big Landry fan, and I do not think he's worth that much money either - but turning around and then giving the same amount of money to those guys is laughable.
Landry + UDFA >>>> Wilson + Amendola
NeverEnough
Footballguy
& tough to win when you let your best players walk. Lifelong Phins fan here, but I'm officially DONE.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
The Fins were a mess last year. He was 12.1 YPR the year before. Amendola 7.4, 10.0, 10.6, 10.8 the last four years while playing with Brady.
Regardless, 2 for 1 means nothing to me here. The Fins are plenty deep at WR, they don't need more depth and I can't really see these guys being on the field together much. They are both depth players. Swapping out a guy who was a key part of your offense (especially 2 years ago in their playoff run) for 2 depth players for the same amount of money is asinine.
ChuckLiddell
Footballguy
Classy, Jarvis. Just take all that money that you stole, shut up and catch 100 4-yard passes.
Fireinside
Footballguy
Heard from a Browns fan that Landry has been getting tons of looks from Taylor. So, now will see if Taylor and Landry can both succeed in different teams, will be fun- at least I hope so.
Fireinside
Footballguy
Really don't know if this is good news or bad news... are they planning to use him more when he's not catching short pass or are they going to take him out of his comfort level and ask him to do stuff he's no master at? I hope it's the first one. Don't want to read the news after this season, that Todd Haley admits the mistake and tries to use Landry more on what he's good at during 2019.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
Chris Kouffman @ckparrot
Dolphins were 9-22 and scored 17.1 points per game when Jarvis Landry was targeted 10+ times. They were 16-3 and scored 27.5 points per game when he was targeted 6 or fewer times. Knows how to flap his gums tho, gotta hand him that.
Dolphins were 9-22 and scored 17.1 points per game when Jarvis Landry was targeted 10+ times. They were 16-3 and scored 27.5 points per game when he was targeted 6 or fewer times. Knows how to flap his gums tho, gotta hand him that.
matttyl
Footballguy
When you're leading on the scoreboard, you don't throw as much. When you're down on the scoreboard, you throw more. I would have expected the results to be like this.
Fins had 6 wins last year, Landry got a TD in 4 of them. In games where he got a TD, they averaged 21.88 points. In games where he didn't, they averaged 13.25. These stats are about as meaningless (and obvious) as the ones above it.
Amazing he was able to type these sentences out with all that drool on his keyboard.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
In the first half of Dolphins' wins, Landry has been on pace for 123 targets per 16 full games, and 85/768/4.3 receiving.
In the first half of Dolphins' losses, Landry has been on pace for 128 targets per 16 full games, and 95/803/1.9 receiving.
In the second half of Dolphins' wins, Landry has been on pace for 118 targets per 16 full games, and 87/1024/9.6 receiving.
In the second half of Dolphins' losses, Landry has been on pace for 198 targets per 16 full games and 132/1418/6.6 receiving.
The Dolphins have averaged 17.4 passing plays per W 1H, 16.9 passing plays per L 1H, 15.7 passing plays per W 2H, and 24.9 passing plays per L 2H.
So @matttyl looks to be correct - the difference is pretty much all about Miami throwing more when behind.
In the first half of Dolphins' losses, Landry has been on pace for 128 targets per 16 full games, and 95/803/1.9 receiving.
In the second half of Dolphins' wins, Landry has been on pace for 118 targets per 16 full games, and 87/1024/9.6 receiving.
In the second half of Dolphins' losses, Landry has been on pace for 198 targets per 16 full games and 132/1418/6.6 receiving.
The Dolphins have averaged 17.4 passing plays per W 1H, 16.9 passing plays per L 1H, 15.7 passing plays per W 2H, and 24.9 passing plays per L 2H.
So @matttyl looks to be correct - the difference is pretty much all about Miami throwing more when behind.
Stuart Ullman
Footballguy
Landry is tricky. I like the talent but can both he and Gordon go over 1,000 yards with Taylor at QB?
I just can't see there being enough balls to go around. I mean, there could be. But there is a certain amount of risk associated with him.
I just can't see there being enough balls to go around. I mean, there could be. But there is a certain amount of risk associated with him.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
what's the catch % with Landry vs Gordon ?
a QB will find his go to guy - better catch the balls thrown your way
a QB will find his go to guy - better catch the balls thrown your way
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like Landrys chances of achieving those numbers more than Gordon and doing so in a more consistent manner on a week to week basis as well. Gordon has one epic season in his career and hasn't come close to that since. Based on Gordons performance last season in the 5 games he played he was on pace for 134 targets 58 receptions and 1078 yards, but the yards per reception was extraordinarily high while his catch rate well below average. He is the opposite of Landry as far as consistency.
Over the last two seasons the Browns have averaged 570 pass attempts per 16 games or 36 per game. His previous two seasons as OC of the Bengals they averaged 504 pass attempts per year. They added Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb to the RB stable this year and if the defense can improve at all I can see those passing attempts going down in favor of more rushing attempts. I think this is what Jackson and Haley would prefer to do, I just don't know if the defense will allow them to, so I would expect pass attempts to still be pretty high, say 550 on the year or 34 per game. Tyrod Taylor more likely to run the ball than what the Browns have had at QB recently as being part of this difference.
As far as ZWK's post about the splits shows, Landry does more when the team is behind in the score, this is the Browns, those types of situations should be pretty common.
Landry made Metterberger look better than he was. Working with Taylor and Mayfield is going to be an upgrade from that and maybe from Cutler/Tannehill as well.
I see Landry cutting into Duke Johnsons opportunity as a receiver more than anyone else.
If I had to pick Landry or Gordon to go over 1000 yards I would pick Landry, but both of them may fall short. I expect Njoku to be involved as a receiver as well, so I'm not sure if the opportunity for either of them is going to be enough to exceed that threshold. Landry did do it in 2016 with 131 targets though, so I like his chances to do it with the Browns more than Gordons.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Hugh Douglas loves to run the ball. He's upgraded his running backs for just that purpose. Even in the most negative game script season imaginable he passed 570 times. I would put that as the high for called pass plays. It sounds like Tyrod will play quarterback for the Browns, and he'll tuck it and run on about 1 out of 5 drop backs; so 470 pass attempts is about the max. It seems to me all of these pass catchers will be over-drafted.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
470 pass attempts is extremely low.
The defense would need to be playing stellar in order for them to do that.
The passing attempts the last two seasons with Hue Jackson has been 567 and 574 despite what I think we agree Hue Jackson would prefer to do. Being behind in the score does not allow him to do that.
I think 550 is a reasonable expectation. Less than the last two seasons, but I don't see much reason to expect less than that.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
You didn't comprehend.
You're not factoring how many times Tyrod will run the ball. He'll tuck it at least 90 times. So if the Browns call 550 passes, about average, the result is about 460 pass attempts from Tyrod. In his 3 years with Buffalo, he has never thrown more than 436 times.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hmm I suppose that is possible. Taylor has run the ball that much for Buffalo the last 3 seasons and the pass attempts for him are very low. Even lower than 470.
I am not sure how many games Taylor is going to start before they put Mayfield in. If he does start all 16 games then your 470 pass attempt number does make sense. In fact looking at Taylors previous pass attempts that might even be high.
Factor in Mayfield likes to run too.... Fantasy wasteland IMHO.. Were the #1 or #2 Cleveland WR worth anything..
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Like the guys who post about teams who give RB's 30-35 carries winning 90% of those games. Why don't teams run this much more often??!!1??
Antwan V. StaleyVerified account @antwanstaley 1h1 hour ago
Jarvis Landry says Dolphins didn't want him to become the face of franchise
https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/27/jarvis-landry-says-dolphins-didnt-want-him-to-become-the-face-of-franchise/
Jarvis Landry says Dolphins didn't want him to become the face of franchise
https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/27/jarvis-landry-says-dolphins-didnt-want-him-to-become-the-face-of-franchise/
NeverEnough
Footballguy
I still think I should sell Landry if I can get good value in dynasty.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Tom Kislingbury @TomDegenerate
FollowFollow @TomDegenerate
Everyone seems to be surprised and excited by the "Landry will play outside sometimes" RW blurb. In 2017 he played 350 snaps on the outside [38%]. That just happens with slot WRs that play in 2-WR personnel. It's no change this year.
3:58 AM - 26 Jul 2018
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Gordon going through some stuff and not getting camp time to practice or create a rapport with Tyrod/Mayfield.
Coleman just traded to the Bills.
Calloway a talented but questionable rookie trying to prove himself.
Congrats to anyone who was able to buy low after Landry signed with the Browns (even though Gordon was always who he is, Coleman was already looking like a bust, Cleveland always has a meh or worse D, and they are always playing from behind--and Mayfield actually looks talented). He's going to be a target monster (as usual) and an easy WR1 candidate (as usual). And last year he proved he has TD upside, too.
Coleman just traded to the Bills.
Calloway a talented but questionable rookie trying to prove himself.
Congrats to anyone who was able to buy low after Landry signed with the Browns (even though Gordon was always who he is, Coleman was already looking like a bust, Cleveland always has a meh or worse D, and they are always playing from behind--and Mayfield actually looks talented). He's going to be a target monster (as usual) and an easy WR1 candidate (as usual). And last year he proved he has TD upside, too.
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