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WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (1 Viewer)

Where would he rank in last years class of

London
Wilson
Olave
Williams
Dotson
Burkes
Pickens
Watson

I’m thinking 4-7 range which is why 1.02 seems high like rock is saying. Strong RB class this year so I hope people scoop up the WRs early. Landing spots will have a big impact on 1.02 down since the tiers after 1.01 are pretty close together.
 
Ziggs said:
Where would he rank in last years class of

London
Wilson
Olave
Williams
Dotson
Burkes
Pickens
Watson

I’m thinking 4-7 range which is why 1.02 seems high like rock is saying. Strong RB class this year so I hope people scoop up the WRs early. Landing spots will have a big impact on 1.02 down since the tiers after 1.01 are pretty close together.
Click to expand...
Hard to say.

Dave Richard had this to say:

I think he'll at least be as effective as Amon-Ra St. Brown with the sky-high ceiling to fool us all and be at the level of Justin Jefferson, who, like Smith-Njigba, was pigeon-holed as a slot receiver without playmaking speed as a prospect before running rampant in the pros.​

Click to expand...

There’s an interesting comp. :oldunsure:
 
Ziggs said:
Where would he rank in last years class of

London
Wilson
Olave
Williams
Dotson
Burkes
Pickens
Watson

I’m thinking 4-7 range which is why 1.02 seems high like rock is saying. Strong RB class this year so I hope people scoop up the WRs early. Landing spots will have a big impact on 1.02 down since the tiers after 1.01 are pretty close together.
Click to expand...
Without the knowledge of last season I don’t think I put him over any of the receivers. I may have had him lower than Burks. Wilson and Olave same tier. I was lower on London than most.
 
It would be really interesting to see what the conversation would be if JSN hadn’t injured his hamstring. Ohio State probably wins the National Championship. JSN probably has a minimum of 85/1250/8 with the very real possibility of 100/1700/12.
 
The hammy is another concern and how long it took to heal. He pops it in training camp, bye bye 2023. KJ Hamler?
 
Super bold statement JohnnyU. I like JSN but it's going to take a lot for him to reach Higgins' status in his rookie year. Pretty much everything will have to break his way. That said, I admire the confidence and I'm sure I'll have JSN in at least one dynasty league so it'd be a great outcome.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Way to shoot the messenger. :shrug:
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I changed it so you wouldn't take it personally like I was shooting the messenger. It's a poor job of evaluation by whoever that guy is. Jefferson played the slot because another guy who was a top ten pick played out wide (Chase) and it was believed by the coaches that they benefitted from having Chase wide instead of Jefferson.

But it had nothing to do with a lack of top-end speed on Jefferson's part. That's why everybody missed the evaluation of Jefferson. They thought he was just a slot guy when his measurables pointed to something else.
 
rockaction said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Way to shoot the messenger. :shrug:
Click to expand...

I changed it so you wouldn't take it personally like I was shooting the messenger. It's a poor job of evaluation by whoever that guy is.
Click to expand...

Dave Richard is the top FF guy at CBS.

He’s not the best, but he is a fairly competent FF writer.

rockaction said:
Jefferson played the slot because another guy who was a top ten pick played out wide (Chase) and it was believed by the coaches that they benefitted from having Chase wide instead of Jefferson.

But it had nothing to do with a lack of top-end speed on Jefferson's part. That's why everybody missed the evaluation of Jefferson. They thought he was just a slot guy when his measurables pointed to something else.
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Fair enough. JJ was (right or wrong) labeled a slot guy though, which definitely effected his FF draft stock. IIRC JJ went at the back of the 1st in many FF drafts that year as a result.

So that, at least, is a fair / reasonable assessment, no?
 
ghostguy123 said:
JSN seems like the kinda guy who would be studly with a high end QB and meh with a bottom of the barrel QB.
I think the only WRs from last year I would take over him are, funny enough, Wilson and Olave. Wilson for sure.
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Interestingly enough, one of the take-aways from the rotoworld article last night, and several of the scouts I’ve seen evaluate him is that he will “elevate any QB he plays with”.

Now, for FF relevance, I think the same can be said of any receiver. Put Chase on the Jets last year and Zach Wilson is still a disaster, Chase’s FF numbers plummet.

In the tweet @massraider just shared, the emphasis was on how QB-friendly JSN is.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Fair enough. JJ was (right or wrong) labeled a slot guy though, which definitely effected his FF draft stock. IIRC JJ went at the back of the 1st in many FF drafts that year as a result.

So that, at least, is a fair / reasonable assessment, no?
Click to expand...

That is a reasonable assessment, yes. He was going about 1.09, really. Back end of the first round. I know, because i hoped he'd make it to me at 2.01 and he didn't.

And he wasn't further up on NFL or fantasy rookie boards because of questions about him and the slot, yes. Hence the Eagles taking Jalen Raegor over him.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dave Richard is the top FF guy at CBS.

He’s not the best, but he is a fairly competent FF writer.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I'd put more stock in the Shark Pool.

When it comes to running my teams, there are very few people I listen to. JJ Zachariason, the guys at Player Profiler, Jordan McNamara, Adam Harstad, Chad Parsons, and Dan Hindery and Matt Waldman at FBGs (especially Waldman on rookies and McNamara making concretized dynasty points while Harstad works in the abstract) to name a few. I've never really even heard of this guy nor would I give him much stock given the comparison he just made.

But really, this is more of a compliment to the people that peruse and comment on these boards. The collective wisdom here is sort of astonishing, and provides checks on some of the industry leaders' more theoretical gambits that fail a bit.
 
rockaction said:
But really, this is more of a compliment to the people that peruse and comment on these boards. The collective wisdom here is sort of astonishing, and provides checks on some of the industry leaders' more theoretical gambits that fail a bit.
Click to expand...
Just not on JSN, apparently.
;)
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just not on JSN, apparently.
Click to expand...

No, I've sort of backed way off because of the Shark Pool's opinion and because he has elite three cone and ten-yard splits. If he's going to be a slot guy, that bodes well.

My consternation comes from this:

1) It's long been in fantasy that you're looking for receivers on the outside
2) This is probably because of the yards gained on deeper throws in classic standard formats
3) His testing doesn't scream that he'll be an outside receiver (he may very well be)
4) With the pick 1.2-1.4 you really want a sure thing or at least a guy that will hold value over the next two years
5) I'm not sure he's either a sure thing or will necessarily hold value if he fails to prove he can play outside

But then this

1) There have been slot guys that score astoundingly well recently in PPR formats
2) Smith-Njigba would seem to be on the upper end of testing for these guys in three-cone, ten-yard split, and even forty time (His 4.5 whatever beats the 4.61s and 4.65s we've seen from slot guys)
3) There really isn't much competition this year, and the other guys in the 1.2-1.4 range all have fairly glaring flaws

That's really it. I like surer things with the 1.2-1.4. Everybody seems to be fine with him though, so maybe I'm being too picky.
 
rockaction said:
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Just not on JSN, apparently.
Click to expand...

No, I've sort of backed way off because of the Shark Pool's opinion and because he has elite three cone and ten-yard splits. If he's going to be a slot guy, that bodes well.

My consternation comes from this:

1) It's long been in fantasy that you're looking for receivers on the outside
2) This is probably because of the yards gained on deeper throws in classic standard formats
3) His testing doesn't scream that he'll be an outside receiver (he may very well be)
4) With the pick 1.2-1.4 you really want a sure thing or at least a guy that will hold value over the next two years
5) I'm not sure he's either a sure thing or will necessarily hold value if he fails to prove he can play outside

But then this

1) There have been slot guys that score astoundingly well recently in PPR formats
2) Smith-Njigba would seem to be on the upper end of testing for these guys in three-cone, ten-yard split, and even forty time (His 4.5 whatever beats the 4.61s and 4.65s we've seen from slot guys)
3) There really isn't much competition this year, and the other guys in the 1.2-1.4 range all have fairly glaring flaws

That's really it. I like surer things with the 1.2-1.4. Everybody seems to be fine with him though, so maybe I'm being too picky.
Click to expand...
A very thorough response to what was a very tongue-in-check comment. I respect that, and of course I respect your opinions on JSN.

I disagree with many of them, as I do believe he will offer move than just slot appeal, and clearly you do not, but that’s ok. We can agree to disagree (the old style, where we still respect each other)
:hifive:
 
greenmountaingoat said:
Waldman's A-Z solo WR class has interesting tidbits on all the WR in this class but I thought the JSN description was interesting. "Safest WR in this class." and mentioned (among other things) a comp of Edelman who IIRC had a sick 3 cone as well. It's an interesting comp IMO. By the numbers:

Edelman vs JSN
5'-10 3/8 vs 6'-1"
195 vs 196
40 yard- pro day 4.52 - vs 4.48-4.52
Vertical 36.5 vs 35
Broad Jump 10'-3" vs 10'-5"
3 Cone 6.62 vs 6.57
20 Yard shuttle 3.92 vs 3.93

If he can shake coverage like #11, he'll be fine. Seems like that's where the athletic numbers are pointing. A guy that's always open, makes tough catches, reads the field and leverage like the QB does, knows how to gain yards and position himself after the catch. Just won't be burning dudes for 60 yards like the Hill/Waddle/Chase types. He's not a home run hitter, he's a guy that could lead the league in batting average. I can understand the reluctance to draft him with pick 2-4 if his ceiling is "only" a back end WR 1. Sitting 1.01 and 1.02 the JSN vs Gibbs vs selling the pick is going to be interesting.
Click to expand...
The comparisons are great . . . but Edelman was the 232nd pick in the 2009 draft. I am not suggesting JSN will be a bust . . . just look at the recent record of OSU receivers transitioning to the pros. Like any other rookie, we'll have to see how he does. IMO, this may not be as strong a draft class at WR as some other years (but I am not a huge college talent evaluator kind of a guy).
 
Anarchy99 said:
The comparisons are great . . . but Edelman was the 232nd pick in the 2009 draft. I am not suggesting JSN will be a bust . . . just look at the recent record of OSU receivers transitioning to the pros. Like any other rookie, we'll have to see how he does. IMO, this may not be as strong a draft class at WR as some other years (but I am not a huge college talent evaluator kind of a guy).
Click to expand...
Edelman was a college dual threat QB so he had to learn the WR position. If JSN can do what Edelman did right from the jump (as teams seem to expecting given his 1st round projection) than that is well worth a high 1st ppr pick: 90-110 catches, 1000-1200 yards and 6-8 TDs.
 
Ilov80s said:
Anarchy99 said:
The comparisons are great . . . but Edelman was the 232nd pick in the 2009 draft. I am not suggesting JSN will be a bust . . . just look at the recent record of OSU receivers transitioning to the pros. Like any other rookie, we'll have to see how he does. IMO, this may not be as strong a draft class at WR as some other years (but I am not a huge college talent evaluator kind of a guy).
Click to expand...
Edelman was a college dual threat QB so he had to learn the WR position. If JSN can do what Edelman did right from the jump (as teams seem to expecting given his 1st round projection) than that is well worth a high 1st ppr pick: 90-110 catches, 1000-1200 yards and 6-8 TDs.
Click to expand...
Of course, teams taking a WR in the first round are always hoping for those projections. I think JSN will be fine as a pro, but some of his college lines were just plain outer worldly: 15-347-3 and 15-240-1 are the ones that jump out. That tells me the opponents those games had no one to cover him . . . not even a little bit. I still think Harrison, Jr. will end up with a better NFL career, but JSN should still do well.
 
Anarchy99 said:
I think JSN will be fine as a pro, but some of his college lines were just plain outer worldly: 15-347-3 and 15-240-1 are the ones that jump out. That tells me the opponents those games had no one to cover him . . . not even a little bit
Click to expand...
If you take out jsn's two monster games you go from

13 games, 95/1606/9
- 2 games, 30/587/4
___________________________
11 games 65/1019/5

If you don't take out any games, here's what his teammates did

Wilson 70/1058
Olave 65/936

Granted both scored more touchdowns, but bear in mind that they were playing on the outside and also a year closer to the NFL.
 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
rockaction said:
bostonfred said:
Who are the surer things
Click to expand...

There aren't any. We've been having a long back-and-forth about this class vs. others, and this was a lament about the class.
Click to expand...
As compared to 2022 when Hall wasn’t even considered a sure thing?
:whistle:
Click to expand...

I thought Hall was pretty much a sure thing. Others didn't. That's how the cookie crumbled.

I know that there were certain outlets up on Hall, but they always had a caveat. His YPC wasn't good enough, or he wasn't a hard enough runner between the tackles, or some other such qualifier. Even when he was starting to make noise in the pros, I still saw guys on fantasy Twitter that are respected in the industry -- up until his big games -- ragging on his game.
 
bostonfred said:
Anarchy99 said:
I think JSN will be fine as a pro, but some of his college lines were just plain outer worldly: 15-347-3 and 15-240-1 are the ones that jump out. That tells me the opponents those games had no one to cover him . . . not even a little bit
Click to expand...
If you take out jsn's two monster games you go from

13 games, 95/1606/9
- 2 games, 30/587/4
___________________________
11 games 65/1019/5

If you don't take out any games, here's what his teammates did

Wilson 70/1058
Olave 65/936

Granted both scored more touchdowns, but bear in mind that they were playing on the outside and also a year closer to the NFL.
Click to expand...
And they were drawing the double coverage and getting coverage by their opponents top CB's, leaving JSN open underneath. JSN will be a very good slot receiver, probably a target hog who will be very valuable in PPR leagues. Someone upthread put his ceiling at Justin Jefferson which is laughable. He doesn't have the speed or vertical game to excel in that role. He's purely a slot guy.
 
Marauder said:
bostonfred said:
Anarchy99 said:
I think JSN will be fine as a pro, but some of his college lines were just plain outer worldly: 15-347-3 and 15-240-1 are the ones that jump out. That tells me the opponents those games had no one to cover him . . . not even a little bit
Click to expand...
If you take out jsn's two monster games you go from

13 games, 95/1606/9
- 2 games, 30/587/4
___________________________
11 games 65/1019/5

If you don't take out any games, here's what his teammates did

Wilson 70/1058
Olave 65/936

Granted both scored more touchdowns, but bear in mind that they were playing on the outside and also a year closer to the NFL.
Click to expand...
And they were drawing the double coverage and getting coverage by their opponents top CB's, leaving JSN open underneath. JSN will be a very good slot receiver, probably a target hog who will be very valuable in PPR leagues. Someone upthread put his ceiling at Justin Jefferson which is laughable. He doesn't have the speed or vertical game to excel in that role. He's purely a slot guy.
Click to expand...
A lot of people who analyze talent for a living vehemently disagree with that.
 
Marauder said:
bostonfred said:
Anarchy99 said:
I think JSN will be fine as a pro, but some of his college lines were just plain outer worldly: 15-347-3 and 15-240-1 are the ones that jump out. That tells me the opponents those games had no one to cover him . . . not even a little bit
Click to expand...
If you take out jsn's two monster games you go from

13 games, 95/1606/9
- 2 games, 30/587/4
___________________________
11 games 65/1019/5

If you don't take out any games, here's what his teammates did

Wilson 70/1058
Olave 65/936

Granted both scored more touchdowns, but bear in mind that they were playing on the outside and also a year closer to the NFL.
Click to expand...
And they were drawing the double coverage and getting coverage by their opponents top CB's, leaving JSN open underneath. JSN will be a very good slot receiver, probably a target hog who will be very valuable in PPR leagues. Someone upthread put his ceiling at Justin Jefferson which is laughable. He doesn't have the speed or vertical game to excel in that role. He's purely a slot guy.
Click to expand...
Kupp is a better comp. JSN ran a faster 40 than kupp and did better in the agility drills. They're similar size (6'1 196 vs 6'2 208 for kupp) and run similar routes. kupp had more college production but played 4 years at a much smaller program vs just 1 for jsn
 
bostonfred said:
Anarchy99 said:
I think JSN will be fine as a pro, but some of his college lines were just plain outer worldly: 15-347-3 and 15-240-1 are the ones that jump out. That tells me the opponents those games had no one to cover him . . . not even a little bit
Click to expand...
If you take out jsn's two monster games you go from

13 games, 95/1606/9
- 2 games, 30/587/4
___________________________
11 games 65/1019/5

If you don't take out any games, here's what his teammates did

Wilson 70/1058
Olave 65/936

Granted both scored more touchdowns, but bear in mind that they were playing on the outside and also a year closer to the NFL.
Click to expand...
If you take out Barry Sanders' long runs he's not a HOFer :shrug:
 
I think the idea was that even with his big games omitted, JSN has comparable production to the guys he was playing with who are clearly on their way to being high level NFL wr's. Not putting him down.

Elevation by omission almost. Without the freakish big games he's still clearly a producer.
 
Wigglytuff's Gruff said:
I think the idea was that even with his big games omitted, JSN has comparable production to the guys he was playing with who are clearly on their way to being high level NFL wr's. Not putting him down.

Elevation by omission almost. Without the freakish big games he's still clearly a producer.
Click to expand...
Understood, but I get grumpy when people say "if you take out" this or that, then this.....
 
FWIW, I discussed the recent WRs from OSU with my son (since he went there and still goes to a bunch of their games). He felt Harrison, Olave, and WIlson were more talented and more athletic than JSN (Egbuga probably too). He did mention that the Buckeyes roll out so many NFL-worthy receivers these days that college defenses can't cover them all. Even he agreed that if JSN is the primary guy on a weak NFL offense that he might struggle some going up against better competition and an NFL's team top coverage guy. Just food for thought . . . it might depend on his landing spot.
 
JohnnyU said:
Understood, but I get grumpy when people say "if you take out" this or that, then this.....
Click to expand...
Agree because it's almost always unfair. Every player has those fluke plays where they break off a long run against an out of sorts defense or a DB falls down and they score walking in or face a defense that is especially bad. It's just part of the big random data set of all historic players. You can't remove those for one player.
 
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