WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (1 Viewer)

[Leroy Hoard]

Understood, but I get grumpy when people say "if you take out" this or that, then this.....

Agree because it's almost always unfair. Every player has those fluke plays where they break off a long run against an out of sorts defense or a DB falls down and they score walking in or face a defense that is especially bad. It's just part of the big random data set of all historic players. You can't remove those for one player.

It would be like taking away their worse games to make them look better.

 

[Anarchy99]

Understood, but I get grumpy when people say "if you take out" this or that, then this.....

Agree because it's almost always unfair. Every player has those fluke plays where they break off a long run against an out of sorts defense or a DB falls down and they score walking in or face a defense that is especially bad. It's just part of the big random data set of all historic players. You can't remove those for one player.

I might suggest an alternative, which would be to drop a player's two most productive and two least productive games, therefore coming up with more of a base line of productivity. It may or may not be useful, but it might be another data point to consider. Probably not worth the effort to compile, but who knows.

I agree that an outlier game in a big data set won't matter much, but a huge performance in a small sample size tends to skew the results. For example, if PLAYER X in the NFL had 50 receiving yards and 250 yards in his 2 games to start the season, some people tout that as being on pace for 2,500 receiving yards. While that is a true statement, it likely is a huge exaggeration (especially if PLAYER X is in his 8th season and never had more than 100 yards in a game before). But as we all know, statistics can be maneuvered and manipulated to paint a specific picture or outcome.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I think JSN will be fine as a pro, but some of his college lines were just plain outer worldly: 15-347-3 and 15-240-1 are the ones that jump out. That tells me the opponents those games had no one to cover him . . . not even a little bit

If you take out jsn's two monster games you go from

13 games, 95/1606/9
- 2 games, 30/587/4
___________________________
11 games 65/1019/5

If you don't take out any games, here's what his teammates did

Wilson 70/1058
Olave 65/936

Granted both scored more touchdowns, but bear in mind that they were playing on the outside and also a year closer to the NFL.

So basically he was just as good as 2 of the best rookie WR last year even if you take away his 2 best games.

 

[bostonfred]

Exactly what I was saying

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

FWIW, I discussed the recent WRs from OSU with my son (since he went there and still goes to a bunch of their games). He felt Harrison, Olave, and WIlson were more talented and more athletic than JSN (Egbuga probably too). He did mention that the Buckeyes roll out so many NFL-worthy receivers these days that college defenses can't cover them all. Even he agreed that if JSN is the primary guy on a weak NFL offense that he might struggle some going up against better competition and an NFL's team top coverage guy. Just food for thought . . . it might depend on his landing spot.

Interestingly both Olave & Wilson have each praised JSN as the best of the bunch.

Not to diminish your son’s scouting ability, of course. Both Olave & Wilson attended OSU as well, so they’re probably at least as qualified.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Understood, but I get grumpy when people say "if you take out" this or that, then this.....

Agree because it's almost always unfair. Every player has those fluke plays where they break off a long run against an out of sorts defense or a DB falls down and they score walking in or face a defense that is especially bad. It's just part of the big random data set of all historic players. You can't remove those for one player.

I might suggest an alternative, which would be to drop a player's two most productive and two least productive games, therefore coming up with more of a base line of productivity. It may or may not be useful, but it might be another data point to consider. Probably not worth the effort to compile, but who knows.

I agree that an outlier game in a big data set won't matter much, but a huge performance in a small sample size tends to skew the results. For example, if PLAYER X in the NFL had 50 receiving yards and 250 yards in his 2 games to start the season, some people tout that as being on pace for 2,500 receiving yards. While that is a true statement, it likely is a huge exaggeration (especially if PLAYER X is in his 8th season and never had more than 100 yards in a game before). But as we all know, statistics can be maneuvered and manipulated to paint a specific picture or outcome.

Or, hear me out, don’t drop any of the data from the data set so it paints the total picture including the extreme upward and downward swings of production.

To me that seems like the only way to not spin anything.

JSN did, in fact, have a monster bowl game, as the WR1, against elite competition, without Wilson or Olave there to draw coverage. Which his detractors seem to believe are his weaknesses.

Eliminating that game from evaluation is flawed regardless of whether you also eliminate his worst game.

Maybe I’m just completely missing your point here - my apologies if so. I just don’t see any benefit to the “well if you take away his best performance” arguments.

 

[eighsse2]

Understood, but I get grumpy when people say "if you take out" this or that, then this.....

Agree because it's almost always unfair. Every player has those fluke plays where they break off a long run against an out of sorts defense or a DB falls down and they score walking in or face a defense that is especially bad. It's just part of the big random data set of all historic players. You can't remove those for one player.

I might suggest an alternative, which would be to drop a player's two most productive and two least productive games, therefore coming up with more of a base line of productivity. It may or may not be useful, but it might be another data point to consider. Probably not worth the effort to compile, but who knows.

I agree that an outlier game in a big data set won't matter much, but a huge performance in a small sample size tends to skew the results. For example, if PLAYER X in the NFL had 50 receiving yards and 250 yards in his 2 games to start the season, some people tout that as being on pace for 2,500 receiving yards. While that is a true statement, it likely is a huge exaggeration (especially if PLAYER X is in his 8th season and never had more than 100 yards in a game before). But as we all know, statistics can be maneuvered and manipulated to paint a specific picture or outcome.

Or, hear me out, don’t drop any of the data from the data set so it paints the total picture including the extreme upward and downward swings of production.

To me that seems like the only way to not spin anything.

JSN did, in fact, have a monster bowl game, as the WR1, against elite competition, without Wilson or Olave there to draw coverage. Which his detractors seem to believe are his weaknesses.

Eliminating that game from evaluation is flawed regardless of whether you also eliminate his worst game.

Maybe I’m just completely missing your point here - my apologies if so. I just don’t see any benefit to the “well if you take away his best performance” arguments.

It's a little paradoxical to me. Both sides seem to make complete sense. Statistically, even if a game is an extreme outlier, it still demonstrates the possibility of extreme outliers, and why shouldn't that be taken into account? But do you actually expect that extreme outlier to be repeatable?

If I shake a handful of 10 nickels and throw them onto the floor, and one of them rolls when it lands, taking the path of a wide curve until it skids against the wall and comes to rest leaning against the baseboard. Do I expect an average of 1.0 nickel to end up leaning against the wall per attempt, if I do this 100 more times? No, because I know that it happened for an extrmely weird reason that shouldn't be expected to happen again. But still, the data so far proves that it can happen, and indicates that I should expect it to happen frequently.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Understood, but I get grumpy when people say "if you take out" this or that, then this.....

Agree because it's almost always unfair. Every player has those fluke plays where they break off a long run against an out of sorts defense or a DB falls down and they score walking in or face a defense that is especially bad. It's just part of the big random data set of all historic players. You can't remove those for one player.

I might suggest an alternative, which would be to drop a player's two most productive and two least productive games, therefore coming up with more of a base line of productivity. It may or may not be useful, but it might be another data point to consider. Probably not worth the effort to compile, but who knows.

I agree that an outlier game in a big data set won't matter much, but a huge performance in a small sample size tends to skew the results. For example, if PLAYER X in the NFL had 50 receiving yards and 250 yards in his 2 games to start the season, some people tout that as being on pace for 2,500 receiving yards. While that is a true statement, it likely is a huge exaggeration (especially if PLAYER X is in his 8th season and never had more than 100 yards in a game before). But as we all know, statistics can be maneuvered and manipulated to paint a specific picture or outcome.

Or, hear me out, don’t drop any of the data from the data set so it paints the total picture including the extreme upward and downward swings of production.

To me that seems like the only way to not spin anything.

JSN did, in fact, have a monster bowl game, as the WR1, against elite competition, without Wilson or Olave there to draw coverage. Which his detractors seem to believe are his weaknesses.

Eliminating that game from evaluation is flawed regardless of whether you also eliminate his worst game.

Maybe I’m just completely missing your point here - my apologies if so. I just don’t see any benefit to the “well if you take away his best performance” arguments.

It's a little paradoxical to me. Both sides seem to make complete sense. Statistically, even if a game is an extreme outlier, it still demonstrates the possibility of extreme outliers, and why shouldn't that be taken into account? But do you actually expect that extreme outlier to be repeatable?

If I shake a handful of 10 nickels and throw them onto the floor, and one of them rolls when it lands, taking the path of a wide curve until it skids against the wall and comes to rest leaning against the baseboard. Do I expect an average of 1.0 nickel to end up leaning against the wall per attempt, if I do this 100 more times? No, because I know that it happened for an extrmely weird reason that shouldn't be expected to happen again. But still, the data so far proves that it can happen, and indicates that I should expect it to happen frequently.

Agreed.

And if those down on JSN are making the arguments that he’s
• not an alpha
• Incapable of playing outside
• not capable of beating elite coverage
• his monster season was due to the presence of Wilson & Olave

That 1 game might well be an anomaly. But so were the circumstances that allowed for it to happen, and to your point, showed that he was capable of such a game, despite it being an anomaly.

So there is value in retaining that game for his evaluation - it’s not all about averaging numbers and making projections. Sometimes it’s simply about properly evaluating the player.

Now, that said, JSN had another monster game in his small-ish sample size, which shows he’s capable of more than 1 anomalous performance….which makes it slightly less anomalous. Still statistically improbably for projection purposes, but highly relevant when evaluating the player.

IMO, of course.

 

[eighsse2]

Watching the Reds-Pirates game (yay.), and thought the commentator misspoke -- thinking ahead to his personal fantasy football draft maybe -- when he said that so-and-so had struck out "Smith-Njigba". But it was no mistake: Jaxon Smith-Njigba's older brother Canaan actually plays for the Pirates.

 

[Faust]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

 

[Ilov80s]

"Slot WRs" don't go 1st round. So if JSN goes round 1 he's either not a slot WR or he's the greatest slot WR prospect ever. I am still very excited.

 

[massraider]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

 

[JohnnyU]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

He's pretty good however.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

He's pretty good however.

I did not say otherwise.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

NFL Notifications
@NFLNotify
REPORT: The #Patriots had "extensive" meetings with Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
JSN will likely be the first WR taken off the board, will he make it to pick 14?
-------------------------
Billy M
@BillyM_91
Brian Hartline ranks the WRs he’s coached as follows:
1. MHJr
2. JSN
3. Garrett Wilson
4. McLaurin
5. Olave

LINK to video

 

[Faust]

Brooks: Jaxon Smith-Njiba can dominate from Day 1

 

[JohnnyU]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

He's pretty good however.

I did not say otherwise.

I offered a guy the 1.2 and Jordan Addison for the 1.1 to take Marvin Harrison Jr. in a DEVY league and he turned me down. Guys like Robinson and Gibbs are already rostered. I suppose I’ll select Quinshon Judkins at 1.2 now.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

He's pretty good however.

I did not say otherwise.

I offered a guy the 1.2 and Jordan Addison for the 1.1 to take Marvin Harrison Jr. in a DEVY league and he turned me down. Guys like Robinson and Gibbs are already rostered. I suppose I’ll select Quinshon Judkins at 1.2 now.

Harrison is clearly (in my mind) the best out of all of them - and I was crazy impressed with Wilson as a prospect. The thing is they’re all showing that they’re good at the next level. I expect JSN to at least put up Olave numbers.

 

[JohnnyU]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

He's pretty good however.

I did not say otherwise.

I offered a guy the 1.2 and Jordan Addison for the 1.1 to take Marvin Harrison Jr. in a DEVY league and he turned me down. Guys like Robinson and Gibbs are already rostered. I suppose I’ll select Quinshon Judkins at 1.2 now.

Harrison is clearly (in my mind) the best out of all of them - and I was crazy impressed with Wilson as a prospect. The thing is they’re all showing that they’re good at the next level. I expect JSN to at least put up Olave numbers.

I agree about Harrison, but a lot can change our perception of players in a year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

He's pretty good however.

I did not say otherwise.

I offered a guy the 1.2 and Jordan Addison for the 1.1 to take Marvin Harrison Jr. in a DEVY league and he turned me down. Guys like Robinson and Gibbs are already rostered. I suppose I’ll select Quinshon Judkins at 1.2 now.

Harrison is clearly (in my mind) the best out of all of them - and I was crazy impressed with Wilson as a prospect. The thing is they’re all showing that they’re good at the next level. I expect JSN to at least put up Olave numbers.

I agree about Harrison, but a lot can change our perception of players in a year.

Look at Keyshawn Boutte for glaring example.

 

[Faust]

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is set to meet with the Ravens, Cowboys, Bills, and Texans.​

According to Rapoport, JSN has already met with the Falcons for a top-30 visit but has several other teams lined up to speak with him. Regarded by many as the WR1 of the 2023 draft class, JSN should immediately help any team he steps on the field for this season. Fantasy success could be difficult to come by if he were to end up with the Ravens or Cowboys, as they already have relatively crowded receiver rooms, but he would likely step into a starting role in Week 1 for the Bills and Texans.
RELATED:

• Baltimore Ravens
• , Houston Texans
• , Buffalo Bills
• , Dallas Cowboys
• , Atlanta Falcons

SOURCE: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Apr 10, 2023, 3:29 PM ET

 

[JohnnyU]

Ohio State Rival Coach: Jaxon Smith-Njigba 'Was Better Than Marvin Harrison Jr.'

Oy

I really like him but he’s not better than Harrison, Wilson and probably not Olave. People make off the cuff remarks all the time and people spread it like it’s gospel.

He's pretty good however.

I did not say otherwise.

I offered a guy the 1.2 and Jordan Addison for the 1.1 to take Marvin Harrison Jr. in a DEVY league and he turned me down. Guys like Robinson and Gibbs are already rostered. I suppose I’ll select Quinshon Judkins at 1.2 now.

Harrison is clearly (in my mind) the best out of all of them - and I was crazy impressed with Wilson as a prospect. The thing is they’re all showing that they’re good at the next level. I expect JSN to at least put up Olave numbers.

I agree about Harrison, but a lot can change our perception of players in a year.

Look at Keyshawn Boutte for glaring example.

Exactly.

 

[titusbramble]

In terms of landing spots, the book (365) I'm looking at now has the Texans as the clear favourites to draft JSN, with the Bears, Patriots, Ravens and Packers the only other teams shorter than +1000

 

[menobrown]

In terms of landing spots, the book (365) I'm looking at now has the Texans as the clear favourites to draft JSN, with the Bears, Patriots, Ravens and Packers the only other teams shorter than +1000

Almost every mock I see lately has the Texans drafting him and I wish I could make a bet against it.

Caserio is part of that Bellichick tree, firmly rooted in that tree. In BB's entire history he used one first round pick on a WR and it was pick 32. Ditto for Patriots picking him at 14 based on their history.

The second reason, and not as big of a reason as the first one because I'm not 100% sure he's ok but John Metchie. They just spent a high second round pick on him and like JSN he might be able to play outside but he's better in the slot.

Bears are not picking him at 9 either.

So if I could bet a 3 team parlay against teams not drafting him I'd load up on those 3.

 

[titusbramble]

In terms of landing spots, the book (365) I'm looking at now has the Texans as the clear favourites to draft JSN, with the Bears, Patriots, Ravens and Packers the only other teams shorter than +1000

Bears are not picking him at 9 either.

Well, no, you would think they had another position of need, but if they were able to trade down again, who knows?

 

[menobrown]

In terms of landing spots, the book (365) I'm looking at now has the Texans as the clear favourites to draft JSN, with the Bears, Patriots, Ravens and Packers the only other teams shorter than +1000

Bears are not picking him at 9 either.

Well, no, you would think they had another position of need, but if they were able to trade down again, who knows?

Yes, I meant that for all of those teams in terms of picking where they currently are slotted.

 

[Buckna]

In terms of landing spots, the book (365) I'm looking at now has the Texans as the clear favourites to draft JSN, with the Bears, Patriots, Ravens and Packers the only other teams shorter than +1000

Almost every mock I see lately has the Texans drafting him and I wish I could make a bet against it.

Caserio is part of that Bellichick tree, firmly rooted in that tree. In BB's entire history he used one first round pick on a WR and it was pick 32. Ditto for Patriots picking him at 14 based on their history.

The second reason, and not as big of a reason as the first one because I'm not 100% sure he's ok but John Metchie. They just spent a high second round pick on him and like JSN he might be able to play outside but he's better in the slot.

Bears are not picking him at 9 either.

So if I could bet a 3 team parlay against teams not drafting him I'd load up on those 3.

Texans are a true wildcard, they could go BPA at nearly any position given the state of their roster, and if they wanted to get another pass catcher they could wait until the top of the 2nd too. If any of the high-end pass rushers slips to 12 I think they will be all over them in particular.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

In terms of landing spots, the book (365) I'm looking at now has the Texans as the clear favourites to draft JSN, with the Bears, Patriots, Ravens and Packers the only other teams shorter than +1000

Almost every mock I see lately has the Texans drafting him and I wish I could make a bet against it.

Caserio is part of that Bellichick tree, firmly rooted in that tree. In BB's entire history he used one first round pick on a WR and it was pick 32. Ditto for Patriots picking him at 14 based on their history.

The second reason, and not as big of a reason as the first one because I'm not 100% sure he's ok but John Metchie. They just spent a high second round pick on him and like JSN he might be able to play outside but he's better in the slot.

Bears are not picking him at 9 either.

So if I could bet a 3 team parlay against teams not drafting him I'd load up on those 3.

Texans are a true wildcard, they could go BPA at nearly any position given the state of their roster, and if they wanted to get another pass catcher they could wait until the top of the 2nd too. If any of the high-end pass rushers slips to 12 I think they will be all over them in particular.

I’ve seen a ton of mocks with the Texans making QJ the WR1

Maybe if their QB is tiny they’ll get a bigger WR for him.

I wouldn’t hate it for the team or for Young’s value, if he’s the QB at that point.

That said, they have many, many needs.

 

[tangfoot]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses

will need to fine-tune his route running

Lance Zierlein hates his route running and is literally the only person who isn't going wild over it. Why do you think that is?

 

[JohnnyU]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses

will need to fine-tune his route running

Lance Zierlein hates his route running and is literally the only person who isn't going wild over it. Why do you think that is?

He's a Michigan fan?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses

will need to fine-tune his route running

Lance Zierlein hates his route running and is literally the only person who isn't going wild over it. Why do you think that is?

Literally JSN’s best attribute is shaking off defenders.

I can only conclude that Lance Zierlein has no idea what he’s talking about.

 

[tangfoot]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Draft and Combine Prospect Profile | NFL.com

lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses

will need to fine-tune his route running

Lance Zierlein hates his route running and is literally the only person who isn't going wild over it. Why do you think that is?

He's a Michigan fan?

Fun fact: JSN has never beaten Michigan.

 

[Faust]

Should Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the top WR prospect in 2023 NFL draft? Peter King is doubtful

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Should Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the top WR prospect in 2023 NFL draft? Peter King is doubtful

No offense to @Faust (the messenger) here, but with everyone suddenly taking Peter King as some sort of guru, just a quick reminder that last year he predicted:
• A Green Bay/Buffalo Super Bowl
• the Chargers would be one of “Five compelling contenders, to me, who could up-end the playoff picture”
• the Saints were another of his 2022 darlings to “up-end”. They went 7-10 in the weakest division in football. Also the Rams (5-12), Broncos (5-12), and Ravens (10-7)
Here’s how King predicted the 2022 playoffs:

How I see the playoff races:

AFC Seeds

1.Buffalo (13-4). Finishing 6-0 in the AFC East makes all the difference when so many contenders have tough division slates.

2. Baltimore (11-6). Decimated by injury in 2021, fairly healthy in 2022—including at quarterback. Important in Joe Burrow’s division.

3. LA Chargers (11-6). Accomplishment of the year: Chargers going 4-2 in the toughest division since the 2002 realignment into eight divisions.

4. Tennessee (10-7). Slight nod over the Colts, by virtue of the Titans averaging 35 a game against Indy in their last three meetings, all wins.

5. Kansas City (11-6). It’s almost pick-‘em with the Chargers, because I think the passing game will be fine post-Tyreek.

6. Cincinnati (10-7). The first-place schedule brings Cincinnati down to earth a bit, but the Bengals will be a threat still.

7. Miami (9-8)*. TuAnon, rejoice. It’s not just Tyreek Hill who’ll make over this offense. It’s Chase Edmonds rushing for 1,200 yards.

*Tiebreaker: Miami over Indianapolis (9-8) and Las Vegas (9-8).

Wild card: Baltimore over Miami, LA Chargers over Cincinnati, Kansas City over Tennessee.

Divisional: Buffalo over Kansas City, LA Chargers over Baltimore.

AFC Championship, at Buffalo: Buffalo 26, LA Chargers 20.

NFC seeds

1. New Orleans (12-5). Note of the week: Saints have beaten Tom Brady’s Bucs in all four regular-season meetings, and none of the four has been a one-score game.

2. Green Bay (12-5). Minnesota threatens, but Aaron Rodgers figures out how to make Romeo Doubs a factor early, and off they go.

3. Philadelphia (11-6). DeVonta Smith/A.J. Brown combined to average 14.1 yards per catch last year. Now Jalen Hurts has them both.

4. LA Rams (10-7). This is still a very good team. But it’s a very good team facing a murderous schedule, starting with the Bills in three days.

5. Minnesota (11-6). Is this the year Eric Kendricks finally gets credit for being a top-five NFL ‘backer?

6. Tampa Bay (10-7). Just too much noise and too many injuries around this team. Talent, and Brady, makes the Bucs still a factor.

7. San Francisco (10-7)*. We interrupt this endless quarterback story to remind you the other 51 players on this roster are pretty good.

my personal favorite
• Chiefs - “It’s almost pick-‘em with the Chargers”

Peter King is one of the least credible voices in the NFL journalism sphere and every year he says a mountain of dumb stuff and every year he continues to be paid to shovel that trash into the NFL ecosystem

We need to stop taking Peter King seriously.

 

[JohnnyU]

Should Jaxon Smith-Njigba be the top WR prospect in 2023 NFL draft? Peter King is doubtful

No offense to @Faust (the messenger) here, but with everyone suddenly taking Peter King as some sort of guru, just a quick reminder that last year he predicted:
• A Green Bay/Buffalo Super Bowl
• the Chargers would be one of “Five compelling contenders, to me, who could up-end the playoff picture”
• the Saints were another of his 2022 darlings to “up-end”. They went 7-10 in the weakest division in football. Also the Rams (5-12), Broncos (5-12), and Ravens (10-7)
Here’s how King predicted the 2022 playoffs:

How I see the playoff races:

AFC Seeds

1.Buffalo (13-4). Finishing 6-0 in the AFC East makes all the difference when so many contenders have tough division slates.

2. Baltimore (11-6). Decimated by injury in 2021, fairly healthy in 2022—including at quarterback. Important in Joe Burrow’s division.

3. LA Chargers (11-6). Accomplishment of the year: Chargers going 4-2 in the toughest division since the 2002 realignment into eight divisions.

4. Tennessee (10-7). Slight nod over the Colts, by virtue of the Titans averaging 35 a game against Indy in their last three meetings, all wins.

5. Kansas City (11-6). It’s almost pick-‘em with the Chargers, because I think the passing game will be fine post-Tyreek.

6. Cincinnati (10-7). The first-place schedule brings Cincinnati down to earth a bit, but the Bengals will be a threat still.

7. Miami (9-8)*. TuAnon, rejoice. It’s not just Tyreek Hill who’ll make over this offense. It’s Chase Edmonds rushing for 1,200 yards.

*Tiebreaker: Miami over Indianapolis (9-8) and Las Vegas (9-8).

Wild card: Baltimore over Miami, LA Chargers over Cincinnati, Kansas City over Tennessee.

Divisional: Buffalo over Kansas City, LA Chargers over Baltimore.

AFC Championship, at Buffalo: Buffalo 26, LA Chargers 20.

NFC seeds

1. New Orleans (12-5). Note of the week: Saints have beaten Tom Brady’s Bucs in all four regular-season meetings, and none of the four has been a one-score game.

2. Green Bay (12-5). Minnesota threatens, but Aaron Rodgers figures out how to make Romeo Doubs a factor early, and off they go.

3. Philadelphia (11-6). DeVonta Smith/A.J. Brown combined to average 14.1 yards per catch last year. Now Jalen Hurts has them both.

4. LA Rams (10-7). This is still a very good team. But it’s a very good team facing a murderous schedule, starting with the Bills in three days.

5. Minnesota (11-6). Is this the year Eric Kendricks finally gets credit for being a top-five NFL ‘backer?

6. Tampa Bay (10-7). Just too much noise and too many injuries around this team. Talent, and Brady, makes the Bucs still a factor.

7. San Francisco (10-7)*. We interrupt this endless quarterback story to remind you the other 51 players on this roster are pretty good.

my personal favorite
• Chiefs - “It’s almost pick-‘em with the Chargers”

Peter King is one of the least credible voices in the NFL journalism sphere and every year he says a mountain of dumb stuff and every year he continues to be paid to shovel that trash into the NFL ecosystem

We need to stop taking Peter King seriously.

...but...but...but..he looks so serious when he's talking.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

...but...but...but..he looks so serious when he's talking.

He’s not lacking in confidence in his terrible takes, that’s for sure.

Related: he’s been the loudest voice in the “Texans aren’t taking a QB” rumor mill.

 

[tangfoot]

I hit the character limit in my Route Running thread, so I'm putting the full quotes and links for each player in their bespoke threads.

+ "plays faster than his 40-time will indicate due to his route-running prowess", "detailed route runner with crafty footwork" - https://packerswire.usatoday.com/20...ckers-no-91-ohio-state-wr-jaxon-smith-njigba/
+ "Nuanced route runner who creates separation well" - POSSIBLY A RANDOM TWITTER DUDE https://twitter.com/JRodNFLDraft/status/1616151377893527552
+ "a polished route runner" - https://www.fieldgulls.com/platform...er-2023-nfl-draft-ohio-state-seattle-seahawks
+ "As a pure route runner, Smith-Njigba stands out" - https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/jaxon-smith-njigba-nfl-draft-prospect-profile-and-scouting-report-538
+ "Extremely refined route runner" - https://wolfsports.com/nfl/2023-nfl-draft-scouting-report-wr-jaxon-smith-njigba/
- "lacks the shake to separate underneath and the speed to run past defenses", "will need to fine-tune his route running" - https://www.nfl.com/prospects/jaxon-smith-njigba/3200534d-4982-9636-a18c-5da6fbdaa80c
+ "very polished as a route runner" - https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-s-top-50-2023-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings-1-0
+ "a route technician with terrific ball skills and a knack for working to open space in coverage" - https://theathletic.com/4185491/2023/02/14/nfl-draft-2023-top-100-players-dane-brugler/
+ "quick and sudden at the top of his routes ... knows how to create separation with his route running and body positioning" - https://www.thefantasyfootballers.c...profile-jaxson-smith-njigba-fantasy-football/

 

[travdogg]

In Peter King's defense (not a sentence I type often) he kinda nailed the AFC. Basically, if Lamar and Tannehill don't get hurt he's got all 7 playoff teams right. I won't defend the NO or GB calls, though I don't think anybody was expecting a 3rd place finish for GB.

Anyway, back to JSN, I do think its possible that Addison goes ahead of JSN, as he has more outside experience than JSN, and I could see some teams pigeonholing JSN to the slot. Whether that is fair or not, and I'd argue not as it hasn't hurt Kupp for instance, it has been a factor for draft prospects.

WR seems like a "what do you want" menu. Each of the top 4 prospects kinda wins in different ways. Addison seems the most scheme versatile, while Johnston seems like the most scheme dependent.

 

[Faust]

my personal favorite
• Chiefs - “It’s almost pick-‘em with the Chargers”

Peter King is one of the least credible voices in the NFL journalism sphere and every year he says a mountain of dumb stuff and every year he continues to be paid to shovel that trash into the NFL ecosystem

We need to stop taking Peter King seriously.

Remembering Peter King’s Danny Wuerffel fantasy advice

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Remembering Peter King’s Danny Wuerffel fantasy advice

21 years later the man is *still* getting paid.

How.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

WR seems like a "what do you want" menu. Each of the top 4 prospects kinda wins in different ways. Addison seems the most scheme versatile, while Johnston seems like the most scheme dependent.

And JSN is pretty obviously the most talented/skilled.

 

[travdogg]

WR seems like a "what do you want" menu. Each of the top 4 prospects kinda wins in different ways. Addison seems the most scheme versatile, while Johnston seems like the most scheme dependent.

And JSN is pretty obviously the most talented/skilled.

Bijan Robinson is the only guy in this class who is the obviously best guy at his position. I think there is disagreement at every other position, sometimes even between 3+ guys.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bijan Robinson is the only guy in this class who is the obviously best guy at his position. I think there is disagreement at every other position, sometimes even between 3+ guys.

Not in my opinion.

JSN is in his own tier, then it’s QJ/Addison.

Landing spot might make it closer, but my tiers are what they are.

I still might try to trade 1.03 for a WR instead of taking JSN, but I could have a shot at a QJ/Addison at 1.08

 

[travdogg]

Bijan Robinson is the only guy in this class who is the obviously best guy at his position. I think there is disagreement at every other position, sometimes even between 3+ guys.

Not in my opinion.

JSN is in his own tier, then it’s QJ/Addison.

Landing spot might make it closer, but my tiers are what they are.

I still might try to trade 1.03 for a WR instead of taking JSN, but I could have a shot at a QJ/Addison at 1.08

My point was that other than RB, there is disagreement of who is the best prospect.

You may have JSN as his own tier, but others may prefer Johnston or Addison. Nobody prefers any RB to Bijan, at least not that I've seen anywhere.

I mean, personally, I think Bryce Young is easily the best QB in this class, but others prefer Stroud or even Richardson.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Bijan Robinson is the only guy in this class who is the obviously best guy at his position. I think there is disagreement at every other position, sometimes even between 3+ guys.

Not in my opinion.

JSN is in his own tier, then it’s QJ/Addison.

Landing spot might make it closer, but my tiers are what they are.

I still might try to trade 1.03 for a WR instead of taking JSN, but I could have a shot at a QJ/Addison at 1.08

My point was that other than RB, there is disagreement of who is the best prospect.

You may have JSN as his own tier, but others may prefer Johnston or Addison. Nobody prefers any RB to Bijan, at least not that I've seen anywhere.

I mean, personally, I think Bryce Young is easily the best QB in this class, but others prefer Stroud or even Richardson.

Same about Bryce. And I have the 1.03 and I thought I was going to be able to get him there, but now if he goes 1 to Carolina I’m betting the guy with 1.02 takes him there now. He’s been my QB1 for months now.

 

[menobrown]

Nobody prefers any RB to Bijan, at least not that I've seen anywhere.

Not from a fantasy angle but from a real life angle I'm definitely coming across some people who prefer Gibbs.

 

[JohnnyU]

Nobody prefers any RB to Bijan, at least not that I've seen anywhere.

Not from a fantasy angle but from a real life angle I'm definitely coming across some people who prefer Gibbs.

When push comes to shove no one will take Gibbs over Robinson.

 

[menobrown]

Nobody prefers any RB to Bijan, at least not that I've seen anywhere.

Not from a fantasy angle but from a real life angle I'm definitely coming across some people who prefer Gibbs.

When push comes to shove no one will take Gibbs over Robinson.

If you say so

 

[rockaction]

We need to stop taking Peter King seriously.

Peter King's big thing is that he has access to the NFL front offices. Once you realize that and stop treating him as any sort of pundit, then you're okay with listening to Peter King. He's like Adam Schefter, only in longform because his mind is slightly more adroit and he's a better writer who came up in a writing milieu.