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WR Josh Gordon, KC (5 Viewers)

 "I'm confident in my abilities. I know what I can do." Well, no. You know what you did once, two years ago. You'll have to show everyone else what you CAN do.
Completely writing off someones talent because "he did it once, two years ago" (where he was the #2 PPR WR - 84/1646/9 on 14 games played) is a gross undersell of Gordon the player. Just because he hasn't played in a while, doesn't mean he's lost all of his ELITE skill/talent.

He has the validation to feel confident in his abilities... No matter how many times YOU say "Well no."
 

 
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RG3 has averaged 218 passing yards a game and Gordon is going to account for almost half of them? In 2012, Gordon averaged 50 yrs/game and in 2014, 60 yds/gm. Lots of folks would love for him to average 117 yds/game like he did in in 2013, but other than Cameron, there really wasn't much to throw to at that time.
By your same logic, in those games RG3 played where he averaged ~220yds/gm, he's never had an elite receiver like Gordon catching his passes. So it's not out of the realm of possibility to see an uptick in passing yards for RG3, by a large margin... Especially considering their innate chemistry together. Gordon has had way worse QB's throwing to him before.

 
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Completely writing off someones talent because "he did it once, two years ago" (where he was the #2 PPR WR - 84/1646/9 on 14 games played) is a gross undersell of Gordon the player. Just because he hasn't played in a while, doesn't mean he's lost all of his ELITE skill/talent.

He has the validation to feel confident in his abilities... No matter how many times YOU say "Well no."
 
Braylon Edwards.

 
I was a heavy pot smoker in my 20s early 30s and I think it should be legal. I base my "conservative" projections on a four game suspension, almost two years out of football, and less than stellar production when he was last on the field. It seems just as "crazy" to prorate 2013 production in 2016. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.

 
Just want to start by saying I'm a Josh Gordon fan (and longtime dynasty owner) and that I think he can again be a top 10 fantasy WR, at some point.  I'd be very surprised if he's in the top 10 from weeks 5-17. 

In 2013, he was absolutely ridiculous.  1600+ yards and 9 TDs in 14 games, crazy numbers.

In 2014, not so much.  He came back from his suspension in November and got 120 yards his first game, which looks great. But then you see that it was on 16 targets. 16!  He caught half of them and put up an ok fantasy day in standard. After that his numbers began to fall.  The last 3 weeks he put up 12 pts total, and only got 18 targets. It was clear that his QB had soured on him, or the OC, or both. If you watch the games you can clearly see the rust. He made incorrect reads very often (breaking the wrong way based on coverage) causing several INTs. He looked like a player who hadn't been on the field for 10 weeks.

Well, when he starts in week 5 of this season (assuming everything goes ok) he'll have missed approximately 90 weeks.  Granted, not all of that was training camp, OTAs, or regular football, but that's how long it will have been since he was on the field playing against other professionals.

Could he be amazing weeks 5-17? Yes. Do I hope he is? Absolutely. Are the odds in his favor? Not even close.

He probably won't do better than 800 yards and 5 TDs.

 
Since it's the thing to do, here's my JG projections...

48-760-6
Well, this would prorate to a 64-1,013-8 season over a full 16 games. Roughly what John Brown did last year.  Or a few more TDs on a few less receptions than what Amari Cooper did.

 
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I was a heavy pot smoker in my 20s early 30s and I think it should be legal. I base my "conservative" projections on a four game suspension, almost two years out of football, and less than stellar production when he was last on the field. It seems just as "crazy" to prorate 2013 production in 2016. The truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.
I agree about the two years away from the game part but not the production when he was last on the field.  He went from Norv (who rules) to K.Shanny (who sucks), he wasn't allowed to be anywhere near the team or the facilities and therefore missed the entire off-season program and training camp and still posted 8 for 120 in his first game back (only 50% catch rate though).

I think, if he is in shape (he looked it on in the offseason photos and videos but wasn't when TC started so who knows) and if his head is on straight (also, who knows?) then he will have a solid season.  Nothing like Soulfly is hoping for but he could still be very good.  Say 1,000 and 8 as a ceiling with maybe 15-16 YPR.

He has the talent to do more but Hue isn't Norv and we still are not sure who is going to fill the AJ Green role in the offense.  Surprisingly it looks like the Browns have the potential for one of the better WR/TE corps in the league so targets may be tough to come by in Hue's offense.  Plus RG3 is a complete unknown at this point in his career.  While we all know what Gordon did with Hoyer, Campbell and Weeden that was an entirely different circumstance so I don't buy the "His QBs sucked in 2013 so it's no big deal now".

 
I agree about the two years away from the game part but not the production when he was last on the field.  He went from Norv (who rules) to K.Shanny (who sucks), he wasn't allowed to be anywhere near the team or the facilities and therefore missed the entire off-season program and training camp and still posted 8 for 120 in his first game back (only 50% catch rate though).
Yeah, his first game back he had decent stats on 16 targets (oh my)...but after that he didn't do much at all. My point on that is maybe he's not as good as his "magical" 2013 season - these things happen. He's certainly talented, but this is a whole new system and circumstances. I'd rather project low end numbers and miss out, because I think it's the more likely scenario that he'll be closer to good than phenominal. 

ETA: Julio Jones seemed to be fine under Shanny. Jr. last season - the top WR on his offenses are usually pretty productive even though he's not a great offensive coordinator in general.

 
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In the last 8 games he's played (3 in 2013 and 5 in 2014) he has caught 40 of 83 targets (48.2%) for 549 yards with 1 TD.

Pro-rated over 16 games that's 166 targets for 80/1098/2. 

 
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Yeah, his first game back he had decent stats on 16 targets (oh my)...but after that he didn't do much at all. My point on that is maybe he's not as good as his "magical" 2013 season - these things happen. He's certainly talented, but this is a whole new system and circumstances. I'd rather project low end numbers and miss out, because I think it's the more likely scenario that he'll be closer to good than phenominal. 

ETA: Julio Jones seemed to be fine under Shanny. Jr. last season - the top WR on his offenses are usually pretty productive even though he's not a great offensive coordinator in general.
Shanny WRs put up lots of catches and yards, hence the 16 targets when Gordon first came back, but they have been terrible for TDs.  Julio had 203 targets last year and only managed 8 TDs.  That's sad.

I know this is a tangent to this thread but no WR has ever put up 10 TDs under K.Shanny.  When he gets close to the goal line he likes to run or get cute using his #1 WR as a decoy to allow his 2nd or 3rd TE or FB to score the receiving TDs.  His #1 WRs are great in PPR leagues or high yardage bonus leagues but many of us need those TDs to turn a meh week into a monster.

End :rant:

 
ponza88 said:
Completely writing off someones talent because "he did it once, two years ago" (where he was the #2 PPR WR - 84/1646/9 on 14 games played) is a gross undersell of Gordon the player.
You would have probably had a good point had I actually done anything like that. But, since I didn't....

 
I have a hard time taking anyone who hasn't played in a year. Or 2. It's hard to stay sharp on the nuances of the game when you can't practice vs nfl talent. Or practice at all. I haven't really heard about him "working out with so and so" or anything, more about hanging with Johnny, which could just be the media. There's a spot where I'll draft him (redraft) but I'm looking at him as a reserve and hoping for wr3 numbers. I'd probably feel better about him if Mccown was starting.

 
Gordon was good get when you could draft him in the last rounds of drafts in June and July.

Once he moved north of the 10th round, I bailed. Theres just other guys I believe you will get better value from in the 6th, 7th, 8th where Gordon is currently being drafted.

 
Gordon was good get when you could draft him in the last rounds of drafts in June and July.

Once he moved north of the 10th round, I bailed. Theres just other guys I believe you will get better value from in the 6th, 7th, 8th where Gordon is currently being drafted.
Nobody with this kind of upside.

I like to play to win.

 
Gordon was good get when you could draft him in the last rounds of drafts in June and July.

Once he moved north of the 10th round, I bailed. Theres just other guys I believe you will get better value from in the 6th, 7th, 8th where Gordon is currently being drafted.
Nobody with this kind of upside.

I like to play to win.
In mocks he did spike into the 6th for a time back when the news first broke.

Last couple weeks I'm seeing him settle in around mid-9th. He's being drafted around WR40 with the likes of Corey Coleman, Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White.

But let's be outrageous and say he is going in the 6th (which I'm not seeing), around WR30. The comps are Alan Hurns, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Jordan Matthews. That's not value? 

 
In mocks he did spike into the 6th for a time back when the news first broke.

Last couple weeks I'm seeing him settle in around mid-9th. He's being drafted around WR40 with the likes of Corey Coleman, Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell, Kevin White.

But let's be outrageous and say he is going in the 6th (which I'm not seeing), around WR30. The comps are Alan Hurns, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Jordan Matthews. That's not value? 
It depends. If he performs no better than those guys once he's back - which is very possible - then you have carried a guy for four weeks of zero production and then still have his bye week to contend with.

I think Matthews and Brown have plenty of upside and Hurns and Fitz offer steady production. I wouldn't draft Fitz or Sanders this year to be honest - but I wouldn't take Gordon that early either.

I get the talent and obviously 2013 was amazing - but I think many are ignoring the downside while drooling over the upside.

 
I have a hard time taking anyone who hasn't played in a year. Or 2. It's hard to stay sharp on the nuances of the game when you can't practice vs nfl talent. Or practice at all. I haven't really heard about him "working out with so and so" or anything, more about hanging with Johnny, which could just be the media. There's a spot where I'll draft him (redraft) but I'm looking at him as a reserve and hoping for wr3 numbers. I'd probably feel better about him if Mccown was starting.
You do realize a lot of players get injured and are out of football for years at a time, right? I do agree that people may be underestimating this, but lets not act like running and catching a football(after doing so most of their lives) isn't fairly easy to pick back up. Muscle memory is a beautiful thing. 

 
You do realize a lot of players get injured and are out of football for years at a time, right? I do agree that people may be underestimating this, but lets not act like running and catching a football(after doing so most of their lives) isn't fairly easy to pick back up. Muscle memory is a beautiful thing. 
Injured players rarely lose 20 straight months.  Can you name any that did and returned to form?  He got no offseason work in 2015 or 2016.  Most guys when hurt were in a preseason program getting conditioning, reps, and install both the year before they got hurt and the following offseason as well in addition to whatever, if any, regular season time they get.  It's not at all the same thing.

 
If gordon is fat, we should all have our own TLC shows
This is a straw man.

You spend 6 months jerking off over Instagram videos, making it seem like the T-1000 was about to arrive in Cleveland and he arrives out of shape, and wasn't even healthy enough to practice.

Just because he wasn't actually fat doesn't mean the guy who's been yapping that he was in insane shape gets to declare victory.  You were embarrassingly wrong, don't post this tripe now. 

 
It's different being at the team facility rehabbing, in the film room, being around the team rather than being at home an left to your own devices.

 

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