WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (3 Viewers)

[Gjallarhorn]

I could easily see him having an ARSB level fantasy impact. His route running is elite, he has proven he can play outside and inside, and he has an elite QB for the foreseeable future. No way I am giving that up for Jeanty.

It’s probably a team dependent decision.

I’ll see your Najee and ETN and raise you one Ladd.

Ladd is a hit and yeah ofc right now his value is higher than ETN and Najee. It's not at the level Najee's was after his rookie year though. It still's much more likely that Ladd has a career comparable to Najee and ETN than him becoming a year in and year out stud.

I disagree. Funny thing is, is that neither of us have anything to base it on, IMO, you more than me. We know what your two players are today.

It’s just basic stats. Very few players ever reach that echelon. That’s why Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Amon Ra, AJ Brown are so valuable. They don’t come around often.

There is nothing to indicate McConkey can’t duplicate this year or improve. Do people still feel Puka Nacua is a fluke? And McConkey was drafted higher. Your assessment doesn’t hold water.

Ladd had a really good rookie year but it wasn't Puka level. Also Puka has had 2 straight high WR1 seasons. He just came right out the gate scoring like we hope some day every WR can get to. Guys like Olave, Wilson, Waddle, Dotson, etc. are just some the recent examples of players who had good rookie years and never were able to improve on them. It happens to a lot of guys. It's just part of the NFL, we get overly optimistic about most young players and there is a lot that can go wrong with these guys.

Glass half full. I’ll have an upbeat expectation until he proves otherwise. You know, like your Najee and ETN examples. My guess is that you don’t have McConkey on any of your teams and is just looking to shoot holes in him.

I don't have him in dynasty. I drafted a lot of him in redraft though because of the price. I just think it's a trap we all fall into: when a player passes their apex, we underrate their past accomplishents, forget the hype that was around them and every new player is the best thing ever.

Seems weak to me

It’s just true though. You can’t take 1 season of Ladd and say “look he’s a hit for sure unlike my awful Najee Harris bust of a pick”. After year 1 Najee was a top 5 RB and one of the most prized assets in dynasty. We never know how these things play out and careers don’t always go as expected. Also Ladd, Najee and ETN were all hits for dynasty because that’s actually a lower bar than maybe people think. Very few dynasty picks every post a top 5 positional season. Doing it even if it’s just once is a hit.

I hear what you are saying, I really do, but there are not any signs that point to Ladd falling off. Najee had an unsustainable workload his rookie year, and averaging under 4 ypc is not ideal. I like Ladd a lot, more than I liked Najee after his rookie year. I might be recency bias, but that is where I am at.

 

[menobrown]

Ladd is a hit and yeah ofc right now his value is higher than ETN and Najee. It's not at the level Najee's was after his rookie year though.

The bolded is true, not really debatable. Looking at FFPC ADP data Najee was RB2 in dynasty startups entering his second season, a top half of round one startup pick.

Even as late as his third season he carried decent value because I traded him straight up for Breece Hall after Breece had his ACL injury. Which is of course a risk to say nothing of needing to wait till next year for my reward but Breece was going in late round one of startups entering his second season, even with the ACL so that's a good return.

ETN's value was lower after his rookie season because of his foot injury. Can't say for sure if his value was higher then Ladd's will be, seems kind of similar and I base that on fact ETN was going in late second round of startups after his rookie season. He did of course gain value and held it. I was offered 1.1 for him just this past off-season.

So it's true those two players are examples of players who after their rookie seasons had fairly similar (ETN) or better value(Najee) then Ladd.

But I'm a little unsure what point is being made? Just that anyone can lose value? I mean sure, but it's a lot more common with RB's. I think most know this from history but if not just go scan startup ADP data from last few years and it's a pretty glaring disparity of RB's that quickly lose value vs the WR's. There is not a valid reason I can think of to predict a signficant drop in Ladd's value other then injuries. They likely add to the pass catching group, that might impact Ladd a little but there is also several reasons that are probably more valid he should continue to ascend.

 

[Ilov80s]

Ladd is a hit and yeah ofc right now his value is higher than ETN and Najee. It's not at the level Najee's was after his rookie year though.

The bolded is true, not really debatable. Looking at FFPC ADP data Najee was RB2 in dynasty startups entering his second season, a top half of round one startup pick.

Even as late as his third season he carried decent value because I traded him straight up for Breece Hall after Breece had his ACL injury. Which is of course a risk to say nothing of needing to wait till next year for my reward but Breece was going in late round one of startups entering his second season, even with the ACL so that's a good return.

ETN's value was lower after his rookie season because of his foot injury. Can't say for sure if his value was higher then Ladd's will be, seems kind of similar and I base that on fact ETN was going in late second round of startups after his rookie season. He did of course gain value and held it. I was offered 1.1 for him just this past off-season.

So it's true those two players are examples of players who after their rookie seasons had fairly similar (ETN) or better value(Najee) then Ladd.

But I'm a little unsure what point is being made? Just that anyone can lose value? I mean sure, but it's a lot more common with RB's. I think most know this from history but if not just go scan startup ADP data from last few years and it's a pretty glaring disparity of RB's that quickly lose value vs the WR's. There is not a valid reason I can think of to predict a signficant drop in Ladd's value other then injuries. They likely add to the pass catching group, that might impact Ladd a little but there is also several reasons that are probably more valid he should continue to ascend.

It was just the hindsight bias of the person who posted he wouldn’t trade Ladd because he’s a bird in the hand and he’s sick of drafting busts like Najee and ETN. It seems to be over inflating our ability to actually predict player outcomes. But you are correct WRs tends to have a longer shelf life.

 

[menobrown]

Ladd because he’s a bird in the hand and he’s sick of drafting busts like Najee and ETN

Agree, those players were not busts and part of another discussion and one of the trickier but most important things to get right in dynasty is knowing when to hold and when to move on from your RB.

 

[Mister CIA]

 

[Pickle Rody]

Ladd because he’s a bird in the hand and he’s sick of drafting busts like Najee and ETN

Agree, those players were not busts and part of another discussion and one of the trickier but most important things to get right in dynasty is knowing when to hold and when to move on from your RB.

......when the wheels fall off, that is when.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Ladd is a hit and yeah ofc right now his value is higher than ETN and Najee. It's not at the level Najee's was after his rookie year though.

The bolded is true, not really debatable. Looking at FFPC ADP data Najee was RB2 in dynasty startups entering his second season, a top half of round one startup pick.

Even as late as his third season he carried decent value because I traded him straight up for Breece Hall after Breece had his ACL injury. Which is of course a risk to say nothing of needing to wait till next year for my reward but Breece was going in late round one of startups entering his second season, even with the ACL so that's a good return.

ETN's value was lower after his rookie season because of his foot injury. Can't say for sure if his value was higher then Ladd's will be, seems kind of similar and I base that on fact ETN was going in late second round of startups after his rookie season. He did of course gain value and held it. I was offered 1.1 for him just this past off-season.

So it's true those two players are examples of players who after their rookie seasons had fairly similar (ETN) or better value(Najee) then Ladd.

But I'm a little unsure what point is being made? Just that anyone can lose value? I mean sure, but it's a lot more common with RB's. I think most know this from history but if not just go scan startup ADP data from last few years and it's a pretty glaring disparity of RB's that quickly lose value vs the WR's. There is not a valid reason I can think of to predict a signficant drop in Ladd's value other then injuries. They likely add to the pass catching group, that might impact Ladd a little but there is also several reasons that are probably more valid he should continue to ascend.

It was just the hindsight bias of the person who posted he wouldn’t trade Ladd because he’s a bird in the hand and he’s sick of drafting busts like Najee and ETN. It seems to be over inflating our ability to actually predict player outcomes. But you are correct WRs tends to have a longer shelf life.

Najee and ETN were two of the picks I mentioned. Here is every one of my picks since 2016, along with where I drafted them. This league is full PPR and does not require a TE.

1.11 – Sterling Shepard
2.2 – C.J. Prosise

1.11 – Samaje Perine
2.2 - David Njoku
2.6 – DeShaun Watson

1.9 -DJ Moore
2.4 – Derrius Guice

2.1 -N’Keal Harry

1.10 -Henry Ruggs
2.3 – Jalen Reagor

1.1 - Najee Harris
1.2 - Travis Etienne
1.10 - Trey Sermon
2.11 – Chuba Hubbard

1.2 - Dameon Pierce
2.11 – Wan’Dale Robinson

1.7 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2.6 – Jonathan Mingo

1.2 - Malik Nabers
2.1 – Jayden Daniels
2.4 – Ladd McConkey
2.11 – Braelon Allen

This track record is littered with guys that never started a single game for me. ETN and Harris each started 1 game for me this season. To me, both of them are busts when you factor in draft capital.

 

[Mitchie]

Ladd is a hit and yeah ofc right now his value is higher than ETN and Najee. It's not at the level Najee's was after his rookie year though.

The bolded is true, not really debatable. Looking at FFPC ADP data Najee was RB2 in dynasty startups entering his second season, a top half of round one startup pick.

Even as late as his third season he carried decent value because I traded him straight up for Breece Hall after Breece had his ACL injury. Which is of course a risk to say nothing of needing to wait till next year for my reward but Breece was going in late round one of startups entering his second season, even with the ACL so that's a good return.

ETN's value was lower after his rookie season because of his foot injury. Can't say for sure if his value was higher then Ladd's will be, seems kind of similar and I base that on fact ETN was going in late second round of startups after his rookie season. He did of course gain value and held it. I was offered 1.1 for him just this past off-season.

So it's true those two players are examples of players who after their rookie seasons had fairly similar (ETN) or better value(Najee) then Ladd.

But I'm a little unsure what point is being made? Just that anyone can lose value? I mean sure, but it's a lot more common with RB's. I think most know this from history but if not just go scan startup ADP data from last few years and it's a pretty glaring disparity of RB's that quickly lose value vs the WR's. There is not a valid reason I can think of to predict a signficant drop in Ladd's value other then injuries. They likely add to the pass catching group, that might impact Ladd a little but there is also several reasons that are probably more valid he should continue to ascend.

It was just the hindsight bias of the person who posted he wouldn’t trade Ladd because he’s a bird in the hand and he’s sick of drafting busts like Najee and ETN. It seems to be over inflating our ability to actually predict player outcomes. But you are correct WRs tends to have a longer shelf life.

Najee and ETN were two of the picks I mentioned. Here is every one of my picks since 2016, along with where I drafted them. This league is full PPR and does not require a TE.

1.11 – Sterling Shepard
2.2 – C.J. Prosise

1.11 – Samaje Perine
2.2 - David Njoku
2.6 – DeShaun Watson

1.9 -DJ Moore
2.4 – Derrius Guice

2.1 -N’Keal Harry

1.10 -Henry Ruggs
2.3 – Jalen Reagor

1.1 - Najee Harris
1.2 - Travis Etienne
1.10 - Trey Sermon
2.11 – Chuba Hubbard

1.2 - Dameon Pierce
2.11 – Wan’Dale Robinson

1.7 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2.6 – Jonathan Mingo

1.2 - Malik Nabers
2.1 – Jayden Daniels
2.4 – Ladd McConkey
2.11 – Braelon Allen

This track record is littered with guys that never started a single game for me. ETN and Harris each started 1 game for me this season. To me, both of them are busts when you factor in draft capital.

Man you really suck at drafting

J/k I agree w/ your general point, although only a few of those picks are in the top 5 which was kind of what the discussion was about.

 

[pinkstapler]

After catching up on the Dynasty Value Discussion thread, I feel like Ladd might be a screaming buy. I didn't realize people were equating his value as close to Breece Hall; and while KTC does have him slightly higher value, it's closer than I expected. And IMO Ladd is lagging way behind in start-up ADP as well. Currently going as an early 3rd round pick there, I'd have him at least a full round higher and potentially a late 1st ahead of older guys like Barkley and Nico.

I think his rookie season was just as impressive as BTJ. He showed elite route running, separation, and hands. He crushed in contested catches and yards after the catch and led the league in broken tackles for a WR. I think he should firmly be in that second tier of WRs with BTJ, ARSB, and Puka. And as much as I love Puka, would probably take Ladd do to age and QB. Given what we've seen, the circumstances, and projecting continued improvement; I believe he's the next most likely guy to enter the Chase/Jefferson/Lamb tier over the next year or two.

Though these aren't consensus opinions among the whole community, I'd bet they largely are among his dynasty owners; so unfortunately probably won't find much of a discount buying in dynasty. But I imagine I will have him on 80%+ of best ball and redraft rosters.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

After catching up on the Dynasty Value Discussion thread, I feel like Ladd might be a screaming buy. I didn't realize people were equating his value as close to Breece Hall; and while KTC does have him slightly higher value, it's closer than I expected. And IMO Ladd is lagging way behind in start-up ADP as well. Currently going as an early 3rd round pick there, I'd have him at least a full round higher and potentially a late 1st ahead of older guys like Barkley and Nico.

I think his rookie season was just as impressive as BTJ. He showed elite route running, separation, and hands. He crushed in contested catches and yards after the catch and led the league in broken tackles for a WR. I think he should firmly be in that second tier of WRs with BTJ, ARSB, and Puka. And as much as I love Puka, would probably take Ladd do to age and QB. Given what we've seen, the circumstances, and projecting continued improvement; I believe he's the next most likely guy to enter the Chase/Jefferson/Lamb tier over the next year or two.

Though these aren't consensus opinions among the whole community, I'd bet they largely are among his dynasty owners; so unfortunately probably won't find much of a discount buying in dynasty. But I imagine I will have him on 80%+ of best ball and redraft rosters.

I love Ladd (other than him being a Bulldog) and am targeting him everywhere. I am totally with you. I am building my startup drafts around acquiring him as my WR1 in the early 3rd because like you, I think that's a bargain.

I think the main thing suppressing his value some is that people are just always going to value prototypical outside WRs more than shifty slot guys, even if the fantasy production is the same. We saw the same thing with ARSB who, during his breakout, was much cheaper than the outside WRs breaking out at the same time. And even now, while very expensive, ARSB is still cheaper than the more prototypical WRs of similar age/production to him. He's seen as a tier behind guys like Lamb/JJ even though he's a bit younger than them and producing the same.

JSN is another one. Still has solid value but in startups goes behind guys like Garrett Wilson who is both older and less productive.

That said, one small downside to Ladd is he's relatively old for a 2nd year receiver. Obviously we're still talking about a long time before age really becomes a factor but as we've seen now with dynasty values there are big drops in perceived value every few age milestones. He's actually older than JSN and is essentially only a year younger than Chase (more than a year in reality, but based on their in-season ages) who feels like he's been in the league for a while now.

Again, not a big deal at this point but I think it's the reason he falls a little beyond the 2nd round of startups. We've seen guys have promising rookie seasons before and backtrack, so at that point in the draft he's up against guys who are post-breakout and have been doing it for a couple years now, but are still around the same age (like London and Puka). Bird in the hand, and all that.

 

[mjb03003]

After catching up on the Dynasty Value Discussion thread, I feel like Ladd might be a screaming buy. I didn't realize people were equating his value as close to Breece Hall; and while KTC does have him slightly higher value, it's closer than I expected. And IMO Ladd is lagging way behind in start-up ADP as well. Currently going as an early 3rd round pick there, I'd have him at least a full round higher and potentially a late 1st ahead of older guys like Barkley and Nico.

I think his rookie season was just as impressive as BTJ. He showed elite route running, separation, and hands. He crushed in contested catches and yards after the catch and led the league in broken tackles for a WR. I think he should firmly be in that second tier of WRs with BTJ, ARSB, and Puka. And as much as I love Puka, would probably take Ladd do to age and QB. Given what we've seen, the circumstances, and projecting continued improvement; I believe he's the next most likely guy to enter the Chase/Jefferson/Lamb tier over the next year or two.

Though these aren't consensus opinions among the whole community, I'd bet they largely are among his dynasty owners; so unfortunately probably won't find much of a discount buying in dynasty. But I imagine I will have him on 80%+ of best ball and redraft rosters.

In my experience, this bolded part is very true.

 

[Jail]

After catching up on the Dynasty Value Discussion thread, I feel like Ladd might be a screaming buy. I didn't realize people were equating his value as close to Breece Hall; and while KTC does have him slightly higher value, it's closer than I expected. And IMO Ladd is lagging way behind in start-up ADP as well. Currently going as an early 3rd round pick there, I'd have him at least a full round higher and potentially a late 1st ahead of older guys like Barkley and Nico.

I think his rookie season was just as impressive as BTJ. He showed elite route running, separation, and hands. He crushed in contested catches and yards after the catch and led the league in broken tackles for a WR. I think he should firmly be in that second tier of WRs with BTJ, ARSB, and Puka. And as much as I love Puka, would probably take Ladd do to age and QB. Given what we've seen, the circumstances, and projecting continued improvement; I believe he's the next most likely guy to enter the Chase/Jefferson/Lamb tier over the next year or two.

Though these aren't consensus opinions among the whole community, I'd bet they largely are among his dynasty owners; so unfortunately probably won't find much of a discount buying in dynasty. But I imagine I will have him on 80%+ of best ball and redraft rosters.

Nacua is only 5 months older. I would definitely prefer any of those guys over Ladd, but his size really makes me nervous. I’m a LAC fan so I watched him all season. He takes a lot of vicious hits for such a small guy. At the end of the season it did seem like he was better at getting down before the taking the hit, so I am hoping that’s something he can improve on. If he doesn’t I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of injuries in his future.

 

[pinkstapler]

He's a stud. Where is he going in redraft? He's just a WR1 waiting to happen, so if I can get him in Round 3/4 I am very happy with that.

Hard to find anything up to date and with a wide net; but I've been seeing mid 2nd to mid 3rd. I'd imagine it'll settle out close to that mid second by July. So unless I have a very early 1st round pick, I'd guess he'll be my auto pick in that 1/2 turn. Think it's going to be another year where I'm one of those weirdos who'd prefer a later 1st round redraft pick over early. I'd love to start off drafts getting two of ARSB/BTJ/Ladd/London

 

[Tau837]

Ladd definitely has WR1 talent. IMO there are two primary concerns for him in 2025.

First, as has been mentioned, he is on the smaller side, and he dealt with multiple injuries at Georgia. This one is unpredictable, so there isn't much to do about it unless a given fantasy owner wants to discount his ADP for it.

More important is the Chargers offense. This offseason, they upgraded:

• The OL with starting RG Becton and improved depth in C James and OL Pipkins (starting RG last year). This helps the passing game but also the running game.
• RB 1/2 (1a/1b) from Dobbins/Edwards to Harris/Hampton. Combined with the previous point, this almost certainly means more RB rushing attempts. It could also mean more RB targets, since Hampton is a good receiving back.
• The WR targets by signing starting X Williams, moving Johnston from X to Z (better skillset fit), drafting 2nd round rookie X/Z Harris, and drafting rookie Lambert-Smtih (read: speed).
• The TE targets with Conklin (better passing target than all Chargers TEs in 2024) and rookie Gadsden, though in fairness he probably won't make much of an impact in 2025.

The combination of all of that implies more running. I don't think more running necessarily equates to fewer passes, because they may sustain drives better and thus run more plays... but the quality of the non-Ladd passing game targets is better, and thus it seems possible if not likely that Ladd won't repeat his 2024 target share, which was just under 25%. They also seem to have upgraded red zone passing game targets a bit, so he might not get as many opportunities there.

I like him a lot but I doubt I will be the one to draft him in any redrafts because someone else will like him more than I do early.

 

[ffmail4me]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

 

[pinkstapler]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

I'd say it's not a bad offer primarily because a WR like Chase is almost untouchable. But Ladd's current value would be about 26 1st and 2nd (assuming mid round picks). So while someone could make the argument Chase is worth 3 first round picks (end of career 29 year old Mixon and a future 2nd are pretty much a wash), I think any savvy dynasty owner would acknowledge trading away 3 future firsts for one guy, regardless how good he is, is a quick way to cripple your teams future.

Not only are all your eggs in one basket, but you need to be comfortable with the high likelihood of having a subpar team for several years in the future. And if that one guy gets a gruesome injury/retires early/falls of a talent cliff/loses his star QB/etc.... well I remember Andrew Luck retiring broke quite a few dynasty leagues with owners abandoning teams after selling everything for him and not wanting to spend a few years digging out of the hole they put themselves in. It's a tempting proposition, but also carries such high risk I think there are pretty narrow circumstances that are required to really make pulling the trigger on it truly a "good" move.

And back to Ladd; I wouldn't be so bold to say the odds of him turning into Chase are in his favor. But comparing those odds against all the other WRs in the league, I think he's up towards the top. So yeah, I wouldn't be trading a guy like him or BTJ, plus mortgaging my entire future, for a guy who put up almost the same exact numbers they did in 2022 and 2023. Chase is 100% one of the best, but even he isn't going to be putting up 400 fantasy points every year like he did this past one.

 

[Gatorade]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

Wow ! Great offer
It would be hard to pass on Chase

 

[smbkrypt24]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

I'd say it's not a bad offer primarily because a WR like Chase is almost untouchable. But Ladd's current value would be about 26 1st and 2nd (assuming mid round picks). So while someone could make the argument Chase is worth 3 first round picks (end of career 29 year old Mixon and a future 2nd are pretty much a wash), I think any savvy dynasty owner would acknowledge trading away 3 future firsts for one guy, regardless how good he is, is a quick way to cripple your teams future.

Not only are all your eggs in one basket, but you need to be comfortable with the high likelihood of having a subpar team for several years in the future. And if that one guy gets a gruesome injury/retires early/falls of a talent cliff/loses his star QB/etc.... well I remember Andrew Luck retiring broke quite a few dynasty leagues with owners abandoning teams after selling everything for him and not wanting to spend a few years digging out of the hole they put themselves in. It's a tempting proposition, but also carries such high risk I think there are pretty narrow circumstances that are required to really make pulling the trigger on it truly a "good" move.

And back to Ladd; I wouldn't be so bold to say the odds of him turning into Chase are in his favor. But comparing those odds against all the other WRs in the league, I think he's up towards the top. So yeah, I wouldn't be trading a guy like him or BTJ, plus mortgaging my entire future, for a guy who put up almost the same exact numbers they did in 2022 and 2023. Chase is 100% one of the best, but even he isn't going to be putting up 400 fantasy points every year like he did this past one.

I would doubt many McConkey owners would trade him for a mid 2026 1st and 2nd.
Looking at 2025 picks I would prefer McConkey over everyone 1.03 and beyond. I may prefer him over Hampton. So a mid first and second in 2026 seems very light.

 

[H8fulHuck]

He's a stud. Where is he going in redraft? He's just a WR1 waiting to happen, so if I can get him in Round 3/4 I am very happy with that.

Redraft bestball Ladd has been going consistently WR 9-11 in the 2nd round. Tier = London, AJ Brown and Ladd any order. Tyreek has been edging up recently to this group.

Over 200+ drafts Ladd slipped to me once in the 3rd mid April.

 

[pinkstapler]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

I'd say it's not a bad offer primarily because a WR like Chase is almost untouchable. But Ladd's current value would be about 26 1st and 2nd (assuming mid round picks). So while someone could make the argument Chase is worth 3 first round picks (end of career 29 year old Mixon and a future 2nd are pretty much a wash), I think any savvy dynasty owner would acknowledge trading away 3 future firsts for one guy, regardless how good he is, is a quick way to cripple your teams future.

Not only are all your eggs in one basket, but you need to be comfortable with the high likelihood of having a subpar team for several years in the future. And if that one guy gets a gruesome injury/retires early/falls of a talent cliff/loses his star QB/etc.... well I remember Andrew Luck retiring broke quite a few dynasty leagues with owners abandoning teams after selling everything for him and not wanting to spend a few years digging out of the hole they put themselves in. It's a tempting proposition, but also carries such high risk I think there are pretty narrow circumstances that are required to really make pulling the trigger on it truly a "good" move.

And back to Ladd; I wouldn't be so bold to say the odds of him turning into Chase are in his favor. But comparing those odds against all the other WRs in the league, I think he's up towards the top. So yeah, I wouldn't be trading a guy like him or BTJ, plus mortgaging my entire future, for a guy who put up almost the same exact numbers they did in 2022 and 2023. Chase is 100% one of the best, but even he isn't going to be putting up 400 fantasy points every year like he did this past one.

I would doubt many McConkey owners would trade him for a mid 2026 1st and 2nd.
Looking at 2025 picks I would prefer McConkey over everyone 1.03 and beyond. I may prefer him over Hampton. So a mid first and second in 2026 seems very light.

I'm with you, I wouldn't either. Just trying to be impartial on an estimate of about what his value would be; point being more towards Ladd and two first round picks might seem in the wheelhouse for a Chase trade; but I don't think many smart dynasty owners are doing that trade. In general guys like Chase and JJ aren't just untouchable because no one wants to trade them, but also because the cost of acquiring them just doesn't usually make sense from a team building standpoint. In many ways they are as hard to sell as they are to buy IMO; at least without being some blockbuster, 8 player, swap style trade. .

 

[ffmail4me]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

Wow ! Great offer
It would be hard to pass on Chase

Well I sent back a counter, adding a 3rd in 2026 along with Chase and Mixon and he accepted. So I feel pretty good about that trade. I just hope Chase doesn't lose his edge after getting paid big time.

 

[ghostguy123]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

82/1179/7TD as a ROOKIE

REDRAFT
What are the projections for 2025?
Keep in mind that he is being taken WR8-9-10 off the board right now, he's close to a Mid 2nd Rd pick
What are you writing in for his production this season, let's get to brass tax so we can have some conversations because my outlook is not going to match yours
That's my guess

 

[smbkrypt24]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

I agree. I recently just paid 1.09, 1.11, Kamara, and 2026 2nd for McConkey.

 

[Ray_T]

Yeah, right now hes a 2nd round pick that has the ability to give you first round upside.

I'd expect hed go in the first half of round 2 in most PPR formats. probably a bit later in standard leagues.

 

[Jail]

82/1179/7TD as a ROOKIE

REDRAFT
What are the projections for 2025?
Keep in mind that he is being taken WR8-9-10 off the board right now, he's close to a Mid 2nd Rd pick
What are you writing in for his production this season, let's get to brass tax so we can have some conversations because my outlook is not going to match yours
That's my guess

Since I don’t do projections I’m just going to say that I agree with Mike Clay. He has him as a good wr2 at wr16 overall.

Last year was a perfect situation for him with being relatively healthy and little else in competition for targets. That’s not likely to happen going forward. Read tau837 post above that lays it out pretty well.

 

[Jail]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

Wow ! Great offer
It would be hard to pass on Chase

Well I sent back a counter, adding a 3rd in 2026 along with Chase and Mixon and he accepted. So I feel pretty good about that trade. I just hope Chase doesn't lose his edge after getting paid big time.

I think that’s a good trade. If that 1.11 pick was your own and you were in the championship game it’s a great trade.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

82/1179/7TD as a ROOKIE

REDRAFT
What are the projections for 2025?
Keep in mind that he is being taken WR8-9-10 off the board right now, he's close to a Mid 2nd Rd pick
What are you writing in for his production this season, let's get to brass tax so we can have some conversations because my outlook is not going to match yours
That's my guess

Since I don’t do projections I’m just going to say that I agree with Mike Clay. He has him as a good wr2 at wr16 overall.

Last year was a perfect situation for him with being relatively healthy and little else in competition for targets. That’s not likely to happen going forward. Read tau837 post above that lays it out pretty well.

Just what the Doctor ordered, thank you and Tau837 has been a terrific read for me this off season. He writes columns I believe for the Bolts and I don't always agree with him, that's kind of why I like him, glad you pointed him out, this is one instance where i am pretty lock and step with his evaluation and I do like Ladd McConkey, don't misconstrue but I do not like the retail price of where you must draft

Good kid, great work ethic, massive help for the Bolts last season getting to the Playoffs despite the Hands of Stone that lines up opposite him
Anyone like Tre Harris this year to slide into the WR2 role? He might go undrafted in a 10-12 team redraft league

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I'm pretty high on him, to put in context, I was offered this trade today and turned it down in one of my PPR dynasty leagues

Give: Ladd, 1.11, 1st in 2026
Get: Chase & Mixon

It's not a bad offer by any means, but I didn't want to take on Mixon's age, and I really like McConkey!!

I'd say it's not a bad offer primarily because a WR like Chase is almost untouchable. But Ladd's current value would be about 26 1st and 2nd (assuming mid round picks). So while someone could make the argument Chase is worth 3 first round picks (end of career 29 year old Mixon and a future 2nd are pretty much a wash), I think any savvy dynasty owner would acknowledge trading away 3 future firsts for one guy, regardless how good he is, is a quick way to cripple your teams future.

Not only are all your eggs in one basket, but you need to be comfortable with the high likelihood of having a subpar team for several years in the future. And if that one guy gets a gruesome injury/retires early/falls of a talent cliff/loses his star QB/etc.... well I remember Andrew Luck retiring broke quite a few dynasty leagues with owners abandoning teams after selling everything for him and not wanting to spend a few years digging out of the hole they put themselves in. It's a tempting proposition, but also carries such high risk I think there are pretty narrow circumstances that are required to really make pulling the trigger on it truly a "good" move.

And back to Ladd; I wouldn't be so bold to say the odds of him turning into Chase are in his favor. But comparing those odds against all the other WRs in the league, I think he's up towards the top. So yeah, I wouldn't be trading a guy like him or BTJ, plus mortgaging my entire future, for a guy who put up almost the same exact numbers they did in 2022 and 2023. Chase is 100% one of the best, but even he isn't going to be putting up 400 fantasy points every year like he did this past one.

I would doubt many McConkey owners would trade him for a mid 2026 1st and 2nd.
Looking at 2025 picks I would prefer McConkey over everyone 1.03 and beyond. I may prefer him over Hampton. So a mid first and second in 2026 seems very light.

His startup ADP is ahead of all of the rookies other than Jeanty.

 

[phandango]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

 

[Jail]

82/1179/7TD as a ROOKIE

REDRAFT
What are the projections for 2025?
Keep in mind that he is being taken WR8-9-10 off the board right now, he's close to a Mid 2nd Rd pick
What are you writing in for his production this season, let's get to brass tax so we can have some conversations because my outlook is not going to match yours
That's my guess

Since I don’t do projections I’m just going to say that I agree with Mike Clay. He has him as a good wr2 at wr16 overall.

Last year was a perfect situation for him with being relatively healthy and little else in competition for targets. That’s not likely to happen going forward. Read tau837 post above that lays it out pretty well.

Just what the Doctor ordered, thank you and Tau837 has been a terrific read for me this off season. He writes columns I believe for the Bolts and I don't always agree with him, that's kind of why I like him, glad you pointed him out, this is one instance where i am pretty lock and step with his evaluation and I do like Ladd McConkey, don't misconstrue but I do not like the retail price of where you must draft

Good kid, great work ethic, massive help for the Bolts last season getting to the Playoffs despite the Hands of Stone that lines up opposite him
Anyone like Tre Harris this year to slide into the WR2 role? He might go undrafted in a 10-12 team redraft league

FWIW I suspect that adp will come down as we get closer to the season. Drafts and mock drafts at this time of year are often dominated by dynasty players. We tend to skew towards younger guys as we often think that younger guys are only going to improve.

 

[Dez]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

Worth more his startup ADP in 1 QB FFPC league is pick 18 right now

 

[ghostguy123]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

Maybe this will answer your question.
If I knew for a fact that future 1st and 2nd would be picks 1.01 and 2.01, I'd still probably take Ladd

 

[Moonlight]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

Maybe this will answer your question.
If I knew for a fact that future 1st and 2nd would be picks 1.01 and 2.01, I'd still probably take Ladd

That's quite a mouthful. I'm a Ladd guy. But right now I have a higher injury concern regarding him than other very good players. He made it through year one OK so maybe I'm just a Nervous Nellie.

 

[eighsse2]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

Maybe this will answer your question.
If I knew for a fact that future 1st and 2nd would be picks 1.01 and 2.01, I'd still probably take Ladd

That's quite a mouthful. I'm a Ladd guy. But right now I have a higher injury concern regarding him than other very good players. He made it through year one OK so maybe I'm just a Nervous Nellie.

I also would not take it to that extreme (i.e., guaranteed 1.01 and 2.01 would be too much for me), but I would pay a lot for him. I would probably do two random firsts though.

 

[menobrown]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

Maybe this will answer your question.
If I knew for a fact that future 1st and 2nd would be picks 1.01 and 2.01, I'd still probably take Ladd

That's quite a mouthful. I'm a Ladd guy. But right now I have a higher injury concern regarding him than other very good players. He made it through year one OK so maybe I'm just a Nervous Nellie.

I also would not take it to that extreme (i.e., guaranteed 1.01 and 2.01 would be too much for me), but I would pay a lot for him. I would probably do two random firsts though.

I don't own Ladd but I'd cash him out yesterday for the option to draft Jeremiyah Love and not even worry about the second.

But I'm also in the camp that thinks that while he's really good, he's a little overrated for a lot of the reasons already discussed.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

Maybe this will answer your question.
If I knew for a fact that future 1st and 2nd would be picks 1.01 and 2.01, I'd still probably take Ladd

That’s wild

 

[smbkrypt24]

Mcconkey is worth future mid 1st and 2nd? In what world?

Are you arguing a future 1st and 2nd are too much or not enough?

McConkey was drafted as a late 1st in 2024 in 1 QB, and at the 1st/2nd turn in superflex last year. He has well exceeded that value. I'd argue he's pretty close to two 1sts at this point.

Maybe this will answer your question.
If I knew for a fact that future 1st and 2nd would be picks 1.01 and 2.01, I'd still probably take Ladd

That’s wild

I would agree with ghostguy. I prefer McConkey to next years 1.01 and 2.01. Probably in the minority

 

[ghostguy123]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

 

[pinkstapler]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

 

[Tau837]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

If someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.01 and 2.01, they would have been able to get RB Jeanty and another player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins. That is much greater value than Ladd.

But if someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.12 and 2.12, they would have only been able to get a player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins and a player like WR Bech, RB Blue, or TE Taylor. I would rather have Ladd.

There is a big spectrum of outcomes, obviously, but I think this generally shows that a 2026 1st and 2nd is probably the right ballpark. The owner trading for the picks has an ability to judge where they think the picks will end up. If high enough in their respective rounds, it might be worth considering for an owner who can afford to give up Ladd for 2025 and is willing to accept some risk.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

If someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.01 and 2.01, they would have been able to get RB Jeanty and another player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins. That is much greater value than Ladd.

But if someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.12 and 2.12, they would have only been able to get a player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins and a player like WR Bech, RB Blue, or TE Taylor. I would rather have Ladd.

There is a big spectrum of outcomes, obviously, but I think this generally shows that a 2026 1st and 2nd is probably the right ballpark. The owner trading for the picks has an ability to judge where they think the picks will end up. If high enough in their respective rounds, it might be worth considering for an owner who can afford to give up Ladd for 2025 and is willing to accept some risk.

I think it's worth noting that it's unlikely that there will be a Jeanty level FF prospect next year, and people seem to be down on the 2026 class in general (of course that could change).

1.01 next year will probably be a WR, at which point you have to wonder if it's a bird in the hand situation.

 

[menobrown]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

If someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.01 and 2.01, they would have been able to get RB Jeanty and another player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins. That is much greater value than Ladd.

But if someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.12 and 2.12, they would have only been able to get a player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins and a player like WR Bech, RB Blue, or TE Taylor. I would rather have Ladd.

There is a big spectrum of outcomes, obviously, but I think this generally shows that a 2026 1st and 2nd is probably the right ballpark. The owner trading for the picks has an ability to judge where they think the picks will end up. If high enough in their respective rounds, it might be worth considering for an owner who can afford to give up Ladd for 2025 and is willing to accept some risk.

I think it's worth noting that it's unlikely that there will be a Jeanty level FF prospect next year, and people seem to be down on the 2026 class in general (of course that could change).

1.01 next year will probably be a WR, at which point you have to wonder if it's a bird in the hand situation.

Not to get off subject but I think Love is an elite prospect and for sure who I’d put my money on most likely being the 1.01 next year.

Obviously a lot can change in a year and while I did think Jeanty was most likely the top guy coming into this last season it was close, and then he just separated. I’m not sure he was seen as higher end prospect than Love is now heading into last year. Of course this cuts both ways and his value could go the way of an Ollie Gordon as well.

 

[Tau837]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

If someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.01 and 2.01, they would have been able to get RB Jeanty and another player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins. That is much greater value than Ladd.

But if someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.12 and 2.12, they would have only been able to get a player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins and a player like WR Bech, RB Blue, or TE Taylor. I would rather have Ladd.

There is a big spectrum of outcomes, obviously, but I think this generally shows that a 2026 1st and 2nd is probably the right ballpark. The owner trading for the picks has an ability to judge where they think the picks will end up. If high enough in their respective rounds, it might be worth considering for an owner who can afford to give up Ladd for 2025 and is willing to accept some risk.

I think it's worth noting that it's unlikely that there will be a Jeanty level FF prospect next year, and people seem to be down on the 2026 class in general (of course that could change).

1.01 next year will probably be a WR, at which point you have to wonder if it's a bird in the hand situation.

That is a fair point, but views on the prospects that will be available in the 2026 draft will change a lot between now and that draft. There will be an elite player available at 1.1.

I would say it would have been worth it to trade Ladd for the two 2025 picks as long as they were in the #1 or #2 slots. Maybe the #3 slot. Probably no later than that.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

If someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.01 and 2.01, they would have been able to get RB Jeanty and another player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins. That is much greater value than Ladd.

But if someone had traded Ladd for 2025 1.12 and 2.12, they would have only been able to get a player like TE Loveland, RB K Johnson, or WR Higgins and a player like WR Bech, RB Blue, or TE Taylor. I would rather have Ladd.

There is a big spectrum of outcomes, obviously, but I think this generally shows that a 2026 1st and 2nd is probably the right ballpark. The owner trading for the picks has an ability to judge where they think the picks will end up. If high enough in their respective rounds, it might be worth considering for an owner who can afford to give up Ladd for 2025 and is willing to accept some risk.

I think it's worth noting that it's unlikely that there will be a Jeanty level FF prospect next year, and people seem to be down on the 2026 class in general (of course that could change).

1.01 next year will probably be a WR, at which point you have to wonder if it's a bird in the hand situation.

Not to get off subject but I think Love is an elite prospect and for sure who I’d put my money on most likely being the 1.01 next year.

Obviously a lot can change in a year and while I did think Jeanty was most likely the top guy coming into this last season it was close, and then he just separated. I’m not sure he was seen as higher end prospect than Love is now heading into last year. Of course this cuts both ways and his value could go the way of an Ollie Gordon as well.

Yeah you're right, and I'll actually walk back my point after looking at it closer.

My memory failed me. I was thinking it was only elite RB prospects that brought immense value to the 1.01 and got drafted early in startup drafts. But MHJ was a top 10 (borderline top 5) pick in startup drafts last year by ADP. So I was way off.

 

[ghostguy123]

Nobody is taking a random future 1st and 2nd. Nobody. That's not his value

 

[Dez]

I offered Ladd for R Rice while Rice was on IR last year got rejected I guess lucky me at least for today we will see after this year. Things change fast in the NFL.

 

[Dez]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

Ah the ole KTC guy. I like living in the real world (Actual money startup drafts) to determine players values not some site.

 

[pinkstapler]

Again, that was if guaranteed.
Obviously a random future 1st and 2nd is not guaranteed anything.
That's very light for Ladd based on any value metric

No it's not. It's ok if your personal opinion is different. But going by KTC, Fantasy Pros Value Chart, PFF Value chart, Draft Shaks value chart, pretty much anywhere I've checked; that's about what his consensus value is. Maybe ~4th round pick up or down depending on source. But that's not "very light based on any value metric". Again, I would want more if I was selling him as well; but I also accept my opinion isn't the world's reality.

Ah the ole KTC guy. I like living in the real world (Actual money startup drafts) to determine players values not some site.

I sited just about every popular source available. Would love more sources to add to the list; please present the ones you use.

 

[JohnnyU]

KTC is the last resource I would use. They put way too much value on draft picks, even later ones.