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WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (1 Viewer)

While I like McConkey, the one thing that gives me pause is that I don't expect him to be a strong run blocker at the NFL level. I'm sure he is a willing blocker, just not sure his frame will really support him being particularly effective. I expect that to be a priority for Harbaugh/Roman WRs, and you can see this by looking at the PFF run blocking grades for their WRs in SF in 2011-2014, which were very strong. On the other hand, the easy counterpoint to this is that they traded up to draft him, and perhaps wouldn't have done that if run blocking could cap his snaps. Will be interesting to watch this play out.
 
I dont draft for a while, but the injuries he had can and do keep a person off the field for a while, but once recovered shouldnt be a major issue going forward. so I am cautiously optimistic that he can play healthy this year. I dont know that I draft him top 10. how you think a guy will produce isnt the same as where you should draft them. his ADP is in the 105-110 range. in a 10 team draft that's round 10 or 11. in a 12 teamer thats around round 9. so if you really wanna get him, target him the round before his ADP. thats when you take him and if he gives you the production Waldman predicts, you have maximized your return for the guy.
I would gladly shoot for him in the 9th in a 12-team redraft. That way you have your QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, and 2 flex spots covered.
I suspect the hype will start to kick in and his ADP will start to happen earlier. my bet is that by the start of the season his ADP will be round 8. maybe round 7 if the hype train gets going. but its a long pre season, so we need to be patient. hes a guy I'm watching closely to see where fair value is for the guy.
 
Which rookie WRs going after him would you rather have?
YES.

I took him after the big three, Worthy, and BTJ. 9th in rookie drafts.

I'm ready to believe he's got holes, but I cannot get behind anyone with a lower ADP. Who's next? Legette? That's nerve-wracking
 
I drafted him in both my rookie drafts so far. Both leagues are deeper than average, one is 14 teams where you are starting 3 or 4 WR's every week and the other is 12, but 2 WR's and 3 total flex spots. I am a contender in both of these leagues, I do have a rebuild but that one does not draft until August.

I also have Josh Palmer in both of these leagues and for this year I need one of those 2 to be a WR 4 for me and based on the rest of my team I should be good. If one of Palmer or McConkey steps up and becomes a WR 3 then I will be estatic.

I also grabbed Hurst of the WW, I have no idea who is going to catch the ball there, but they are all really cheap. In deep leagues where you just need warm bodies during the bye weeks I like the chargers this year.
 
Which rookie WRs going after him would you rather have?
YES.

I took him after the big three, Worthy, and BTJ. 9th in rookie drafts.

I'm ready to believe he's got holes, but I cannot get behind anyone with a lower ADP. Who's next? Legette? That's nerve-wracking
Would you rather have Ladd or BTJ?

Do you feel strongly enough you would be willing to trade something to move up to get one specifically over the other?
 
Would you rather have Ladd or BTJ?

Do you feel strongly enough you would be willing to trade something to move up to get one specifically over the other?
I take Ladd, although I didn't have a choice in either draft.

Ladd vs BTJ has a lot to do with my own personal philosophy on drafting WR.
  • I want volume first and foremost. I can look at Ladd's game, and see a lot of volume. BTJ I think profiles more like a great #2 WR in the league. JMO. And those guys never wind up being WR5 overall. You have to have a ton of volume to be a true WR1. Or Tyreek.
  • Physically, they are both within a fine range for WR1 productivity. I don't bump Thomas up for being a better athlete.
  • Ladd was lacking target metrics that you like, but there was massive competition, and he was banged up. It's an incomplete picture, not a really bad look like some other guys in this draft.
  • McConkey's route to targets is significantly clearer than BTJ. That DOES change quickly, but.....
  • I don't really wanna get too much of JAX in general. More and more, if I am considering a player, I consider the state of the franchise. To me, JAX is a bit of a mess. The upside of Ladd being the #1 target for a Harbaugh-coached Justin Herbert is well worth the #9 overall pick.
 
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Would you rather have Ladd or BTJ?

Do you feel strongly enough you would be willing to trade something to move up to get one specifically over the other?
I take Ladd, although I didn't have a choice in either draft.

Ladd vs BTJ has a lot to do with my own personal philosophy on drafting WR.
  • I want volume first and foremost. I can look at Ladd's game, and see a lot of volume. BTJ I think profiles more like a great #2 WR in the league. JMO. And those guys never wind up being WR5 overall. You have to have a ton of volume to be a true WR1. Or Tyreek.
  • Physically, they are both within a fine range for WR1 productivity. I don't bump Thomas up for being a better athlete.
  • Ladd was lacking target metrics that you like, but there was massive competition, and he was banged jump. It's an incomplete picture, not a really bad look like some other guys in this draft.
  • McConkey's route to targets is significantly clearer than BTJ. That DOES change quickly, but.....
  • I don't really wanna get too much of JAX in general. More and more, if I am considering a player, I consider the state of the franchise. To me, JAX is a bit of a mess. The upside of Ladd being the #1 target for a Harbaugh-coached Justin Herbert is well worth the #9 overall pick.

I appreciate the analysis, for some reason I keep going toward Ladd as the better situation but I think BTJ and Ladd's situation has some parallel. I bolded the text about Jacksonville being a mess, because I think the same thing about the Chargers but attribute the low trust in the Jaguars to QB; which seems funny, because Trevor Lawrence was a "generational talent".
 
Would you rather have Ladd or BTJ?

Do you feel strongly enough you would be willing to trade something to move up to get one specifically over the other?
I take Ladd, although I didn't have a choice in either draft.

Ladd vs BTJ has a lot to do with my own personal philosophy on drafting WR.
  • I want volume first and foremost. I can look at Ladd's game, and see a lot of volume. BTJ I think profiles more like a great #2 WR in the league. JMO. And those guys never wind up being WR5 overall. You have to have a ton of volume to be a true WR1. Or Tyreek.
  • Physically, they are both within a fine range for WR1 productivity. I don't bump Thomas up for being a better athlete.
  • Ladd was lacking target metrics that you like, but there was massive competition, and he was banged jump. It's an incomplete picture, not a really bad look like some other guys in this draft.
  • McConkey's route to targets is significantly clearer than BTJ. That DOES change quickly, but.....
  • I don't really wanna get too much of JAX in general. More and more, if I am considering a player, I consider the state of the franchise. To me, JAX is a bit of a mess. The upside of Ladd being the #1 target for a Harbaugh-coached Justin Herbert is well worth the #9 overall pick.

I bolded the text about Jacksonville being a mess
Jaguar teal was a nice touch too.
 
@scoutdnfl
REPORT: #Chargers rookie WR Ladd McConkey is off to an impressive start and is set up to be the WR1

Justin Herbert said: “It's like he's been a four-or five-year vet” & that he’s “really looking forward to getting him the ball"

The #Georgia product was our 20th ranked prospect
 
Chris O’Brien
Ladd McConkey’s opportunity as a rookie is insane

-Fluid route runner
-4.39 speed with a 36’ vertical
-Impressive acceleration
-Pick 34

Chargers have a league high 395 vacated targets.

Don’t be surprised when McConkey leads all rookies in catches.
 
Just wanted to say that Matt Harmon's Reception Perception prospect profile on McConkey is pretty interesting. Without giving away that content specifically, I will say that the comp that Harmon settled on for McConkey is Tyler Lockett. Lockett's PPR finishes:
  • 2023 (Geno, Lock) - WR33 total points, WR40 ppg
  • 2022 (Geno) - WR13 total points, WR16 ppg
  • 2021 (Wilson, Geno) - WR16 total points, WR19 ppg
  • 2020 (Wilson) - WR8 total points, WR12 ppg
  • 2019 (Wilson) - WR13 total points, WR23 ppg
  • 2018 (Wilson) - WR16 total points, WR25 ppg
  • 2017 (Wilson) - WR57 total points, WR69 ppg
  • 2016 (Wilson) - WR64 total points, WR76 ppg
  • 2015 (Wilson) - WR43 total points, WR54 ppg
Nice run from 2018 to 2022.

Who is likely a better coach of passing offense, Harbaugh and his staff or Carroll and his staff? Not sure there is a big difference or clear answer there, but...

Who is a better passing QB, Herbert or Wilson/Geno/Lock? Obviously, Herbert.
 
Just wanted to say that Matt Harmon's Reception Perception prospect profile on McConkey is pretty interesting. Without giving away that content specifically, I will say that the comp that Harmon settled on for McConkey is Tyler Lockett. Lockett's PPR finishes:
  • 2023 (Geno, Lock) - WR33 total points, WR40 ppg
  • 2022 (Geno) - WR13 total points, WR16 ppg
  • 2021 (Wilson, Geno) - WR16 total points, WR19 ppg
  • 2020 (Wilson) - WR8 total points, WR12 ppg
  • 2019 (Wilson) - WR13 total points, WR23 ppg
  • 2018 (Wilson) - WR16 total points, WR25 ppg
  • 2017 (Wilson) - WR57 total points, WR69 ppg
  • 2016 (Wilson) - WR64 total points, WR76 ppg
  • 2015 (Wilson) - WR43 total points, WR54 ppg
Nice run from 2018 to 2022.

Who is likely a better coach of passing offense, Harbaugh and his staff or Carroll and his staff? Not sure there is a big difference or clear answer there, but...

Who is a better passing QB, Herbert or Wilson/Geno/Lock? Obviously, Herbert.
Was Harmon's comp made before or after the draft?
 
Just wanted to say that Matt Harmon's Reception Perception prospect profile on McConkey is pretty interesting. Without giving away that content specifically, I will say that the comp that Harmon settled on for McConkey is Tyler Lockett. Lockett's PPR finishes:
  • 2023 (Geno, Lock) - WR33 total points, WR40 ppg
  • 2022 (Geno) - WR13 total points, WR16 ppg
  • 2021 (Wilson, Geno) - WR16 total points, WR19 ppg
  • 2020 (Wilson) - WR8 total points, WR12 ppg
  • 2019 (Wilson) - WR13 total points, WR23 ppg
  • 2018 (Wilson) - WR16 total points, WR25 ppg
  • 2017 (Wilson) - WR57 total points, WR69 ppg
  • 2016 (Wilson) - WR64 total points, WR76 ppg
  • 2015 (Wilson) - WR43 total points, WR54 ppg
Nice run from 2018 to 2022.

Who is likely a better coach of passing offense, Harbaugh and his staff or Carroll and his staff? Not sure there is a big difference or clear answer there, but...

Who is a better passing QB, Herbert or Wilson/Geno/Lock? Obviously, Herbert.
Was Harmon's comp made before or after the draft?

Before. The point was to compare McConkey the player he evaluated to a reasonable NFL comp. He explains why he thinks they are comparable.
 
Maybe I’m missing something but under the collective bargaining deal aren’t all the draft picks coming with predetermined guaranteed money. Like literally every player drafted this year is making more than the player drafted in their spot the previous year, regardless of postion played.
 
Maybe I’m missing something but under the collective bargaining deal aren’t all the draft picks coming with predetermined guaranteed money. Like literally every player drafted this year is making more than the player drafted in their spot the previous year, regardless of postion played.
I think it's basically a predetermined amount of money but there are a few things to negotiate.

I believe all first round picks get their total pay guaranteed, but they still might negotiate over stuff like offsets and bonus.

After the first round the players don't usually see fully guaranteed deals, close but not 100%, so they are negotiating stuff mentioned above plus guarantees. Farther down the draft goes the less guarantees.

As an example LaPorta went at pick 34 and he pay was fully guaranteed the first 3 years, in year 4 only about $400K of his $1.9M base was guaranteed. Michael Mayer went one pick after him and he only got about $300K guaranteed on his $2m.

All in all does not mean much for Ladd, basically sounds like Rapaport doing an agent a favor, but I guess he did well to negotiate what he could.
 
Maybe I’m missing something but under the collective bargaining deal aren’t all the draft picks coming with predetermined guaranteed money. Like literally every player drafted this year is making more than the player drafted in their spot the previous year, regardless of postion played.
I think it's basically a predetermined amount of money but there are a few things to negotiate.

I believe all first round picks get their total pay guaranteed, but they still might negotiate over stuff like offsets and bonus.

After the first round the players don't usually see fully guaranteed deals, close but not 100%, so they are negotiating stuff mentioned above plus guarantees. Farther down the draft goes the less guarantees.

As an example LaPorta went at pick 34 and he pay was fully guaranteed the first 3 years, in year 4 only about $400K of his $1.9M base was guaranteed. Michael Mayer went one pick after him and he only got about $300K guaranteed on his $2m.

All in all does not mean much for Ladd, basically sounds like Rapaport doing an agent a favor, but I guess he did well to negotiate what he could.
Thanks. It definitely read like a copy and paste job from an agent. Which I actually think Ian and Adam do quite often.
 
Maybe I’m missing something but under the collective bargaining deal aren’t all the draft picks coming with predetermined guaranteed money. Like literally every player drafted this year is making more than the player drafted in their spot the previous year, regardless of postion played.
I think it's basically a predetermined amount of money but there are a few things to negotiate.

I believe all first round picks get their total pay guaranteed, but they still might negotiate over stuff like offsets and bonus.

After the first round the players don't usually see fully guaranteed deals, close but not 100%, so they are negotiating stuff mentioned above plus guarantees. Farther down the draft goes the less guarantees.

As an example LaPorta went at pick 34 and he pay was fully guaranteed the first 3 years, in year 4 only about $400K of his $1.9M base was guaranteed. Michael Mayer went one pick after him and he only got about $300K guaranteed on his $2m.

All in all does not mean much for Ladd, basically sounds like Rapaport doing an agent a favor, but I guess he did well to negotiate what he could.
Thanks. It definitely read like a copy and paste job from an agent. Which I actually think Ian and Adam do quite often.
Absolutely.
 
Ladd #6 behind Brian, really no need to read another take or another ranking. This is just obvious.

Tex
 
Maybe I’m missing something but under the collective bargaining deal aren’t all the draft picks coming with predetermined guaranteed money. Like literally every player drafted this year is making more than the player drafted in their spot the previous year, regardless of postion played.
Yes.

This is Ian Rapaport, trying to orally pleasure every agent in every tweet.

He's the cringiest simp on Twitter.
 
Matt Waldman
The Gut Check No. 618

Ladd McConkey is a compelling candidate to become the most productive rookie fantasy receiver in 2024. @MattWaldman explains why.

@32BeatWriters
“Ladd McConkey has the speed to win outside, but he functions best from the slot. He's a quick-footed receiver who excels in the screen and RPO game because he's patient and comfortable working tight to his blockers in heavy traffic.

He wins with double moves against off-man coverage and has the expertise of footwork to eventually develop into a strong press-man receiver if he can demonstrate the counters with his hands that are necessary to defeat top NFL corners.”
 
Thomas has a higher ceiling vs. McConkey. Just depends what you want.

My hot take is that Pearsall will have a better NFL career than McConkey...I just think he's better.
 
Thomas has a higher ceiling vs. McConkey. Just depends what you want.

My hot take is that Pearsall will have a better NFL career than McConkey...I just think he's better.
hes landed in a nice system. but until one of deebo or Aiyuk moves on, hes going to be limited. McConkey should have the better rookie year and it shouldnt be close. so if you like Pearsall (and I can see why you do) you could take McConkey late, and then trade him for Pearsall after the rookie season. You might even get the Pearsall owner to throw in another asset.

anyhow, food for thoughts. its never a guarantee you can pull off a move like this but when you do, you look like a genius.
 
Thomas has a higher ceiling vs. McConkey. Just depends what you want.

My hot take is that Pearsall will have a better NFL career than McConkey...I just think he's better.
Why does BTJ have a higher ceiling?
Because he’s taller?
- ideal height/weight when looking for WR1 types
- bigger hands
- longer wingspan
- early declare
- draft capital (1st round pick and 4th WR drafted in deep WR class)

McConkey has a nice floor set up for him to start due to expected target share and vacated targets. Situation can change quickly if Chargers acquire a new WR by trade, Draft, or next free agency. Which if Palmer or Johnston don’t step up in 2024, can certainly see happening.

I like McConkey more for this year but longer term I give BTJ the edge as I think he establishes himself as the Jaguars’ WR1 by the end of the 2025 season if not sooner and I like his physical profile better.
 
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