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WR Luther Burden III, CHI (1 Viewer)
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greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I think it does. Unfortunately, I went with "a lot of shares, please."
I find the idea of having a bunch of WR2-3 types to chose between "start sit" sort of annoying. I feel like every time I had Flowers or Reed on my bench they went off.
Team A has a 4 "set it and forget it" starters so getting another ho-hum WR2 makes zero impact on the weekly ceiling. Burden busting will not hurt that bad but if he goes off he might push me to being a top 2 team in that league (currently more vaguely in the top 4 or so). Also that team- though fairly young -has a lot of its value tied up in RBs so getting a longer burn asset makes a ton of sense.
Team B is a young purgatory team. Nearly every starter is young but they're all at the back end of the production you would want out of that position. McConkey-Jamo-Ridley-- Brown-Bucky-Otton. So I'll be fielding a competitive team but have zero league-winning-upside players. Again, depth is nice but ceiling matters more.
For me, Burden's ceiling outcome is more visible than all of the other picks from 1.06 and down. Maybe that's foolish but
You're betting on him getting the "ARSB" role. Harmon on his pod was dismissive about the player comp but that was regarding very specific stuff. I've heard other draftnicks talking (pre-draft) about the player comp as well as several since talking about the fit for the ARSB role in Ben Johnson's offense. TBD is whether or not Caleb can pick up the timing based concepts that Goff excelled at in Detroit and see this role flourish.
Swing for the fences.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Honestly; seeing as they didn't do anything at RB, if we were trying to comp this years Bears to his Lions offense, I'd want Burden as a mix of the ARSB role and the Gibbs role. And Odunze would pick up the other parts of the ARSB role and Jameson Williams. And Loveland would be LaPorta-esque. Obviously it won't work out exactly that way this year with they keeping DJ Moore; but Burden's ceiling comps predraft were often Moore or another player in that wheelhouse. IMO, that's what the long term plan is.I think it does. Unfortunately, I went with "a lot of shares, please."
I find the idea of having a bunch of WR2-3 types to chose between "start sit" sort of annoying. I feel like every time I had Flowers or Reed on my bench they went off.
Team A has a 4 "set it and forget it" starters so getting another ho-hum WR2 makes zero impact on the weekly ceiling. Burden busting will not hurt that bad but if he goes off he might push me to being a top 2 team in that league (currently more vaguely in the top 4 or so). Also that team- though fairly young -has a lot of its value tied up in RBs so getting a longer burn asset makes a ton of sense.
Team B is a young purgatory team. Nearly every starter is young but they're all at the back end of the production you would want out of that position. McConkey-Jamo-Ridley-- Brown-Bucky-Otton. So I'll be fielding a competitive team but have zero league-winning-upside players. Again, depth is nice but ceiling matters more.
For me, Burden's ceiling outcome is more visible than all of the other picks from 1.06 and down. Maybe that's foolish but
You're betting on him getting the "ARSB" role. Harmon on his pod was dismissive about the player comp but that was regarding very specific stuff. I've heard other draftnicks talking (pre-draft) about the player comp as well as several since talking about the fit for the ARSB role in Ben Johnson's offense. TBD is whether or not Caleb can pick up the timing based concepts that Goff excelled at in Detroit and see this role flourish.
Swing for the fences.
I'm very appreciative that the "crowded receiving corps" and "tough landing spot for immediate success" narrative has made him a 2nd round pick in most drafts. Just absolutely scooping up that value wherever I can. Not that I think he's a lock, it's just the type of prospect profile I prefer to invest in. I think there's a 60% chance he ends up a cautionary tale for dynasty owners to not overreact to landing spot/crowded situations and to focus on the talent.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Agreed. Because of that narrative, Burden and Colston will be two of my highest drafted players.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Isn’t Marquez Colston already retired?
massraider
Footballguy
Got him at 2.07, behind Matthew Golden, Tre Harris, Taylor Mason, Skattebo.
Value where he going, IMO
dipandglide
Footballguy
Are you familiar with Colston Loveland? He's Burden's teammate.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I’m a last name guy
dipandglide
Footballguy
Your user name begs to differI’m a last name guy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
OMG, you got me!!!! Technically the U?Your user name begs to differI’m a last name guy
pinkstapler
Footballguy
100%. I wasn't high on this WR class in general, but to get who was pretty much consensus WR2/3 (between him and Egbuka typically) of this class in the 2nd round (I got him at pick 15 and 16 in two leagues respectively) is amazing value. Talent tends to win out over situation.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I also paired him with Rome in one league because I couldn't pass up the value at that point. 2.04 in a TriFlex after I took Golden at 2.02 and Kaleb Johnson at 1.12. Tuten and Skattebo were both available still but Burden is the only early declare WR in this draft after Tet, Hunter and Golden. Egbuka didn't. Were there any other early declares?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Higgins, Bech and Harris didn't, as for WRs going pretty close to the same range in the mid 2nd of rookie drafts. I have a few shares of Ayomanor I grabbed, but got him much later. At that point I don't even care much anymore about indicators, it's just hey this dart feels good in my hand I think I'll throw it... **takes another chug**.. but for Burden yes that was a green flag if you will.
Yes, early declare is a key indicator IMO for WRs as well as breakout age, production share, draft capital and athleticism. I can't sit here and defend it fully but a few of the folks I used to "work" with at the outfit I was writing articles for more or less convinced me that early declare itself was a huge split worth filtering for.
With Burden, the talk of attitude problem undoubtedly is the one and only difference between him going to the Bears as the 7th pick of the 2nd round and being more of a mid-1st rounder. Still incredibly solid DC though. Broke out at age 19 with 86/1212/9 - that breakout age production isn't a green flag, it's a green tapestry the size of Illinois. I don't have the #s on how big of a share of his team's production that was, but I am guessing it isn't bad. Athleticism? Well he is 6'0" 206 which is sort of a perfect sweet spot for build, and he ran 4.41 which is elite, I don't care what people say.
The remaining unspoken as of yet indicator I value highly with WRs is separation and/or route running, which I rely upon scouting reports and FF wisdom of the crowd etc. As for all I've read he is an elite route runner that creates separation with ease. (I hope I don't have that mixed up in my head like I did re:Skattebo on receiving prowess lol).
That's all major green flags top to bottom. Attitude a question but ok like he is a WR, right? Remaining biggest question, for good reason, is the mouths to feed problem in Chicago. But I think we have to bet on talent over situation here, and the situation as has been mentioned a million times is that DJ Moore might be on the hot seat, though I agree the Bears would prefer that this lights a fire for him and he comes and balls out. I think Odunze is way better than people are currently giving him credit for and he looked great with a rookie QB throwing him the ball. 100 targets and >700 yards for a rookie is plenty for me to be excited about with him. So yeah the mouths problem is real. Swift will continue to command some targets and oh yeah they have two legit TE weapons.
Burden might be the best of the 3 though in terms of creating matchup problems and getting open. The Amon-Ra that everyone keeps saying he could turn into. I like Moore and Odunze better as more outside guys anyway.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Dead cap from monies already paid out hit the original team - signing bonus, restructure, anything they already paid cash out for. Future guaranteed money is calculated in most sites' "dead" money calculation since, if they were cut today, that guaranteed money would still be paid by the original team. However, when a player is traded, that future money won't hit as dead money since the new team picks up the liability to pay it out as scheduled. This is why those sites sometimes show a drastic dead money difference between "pre 6/1 cut" and "pre 6/1 trade" for example. Using the spotrac link you referenced for Moore:
2026 Release/Trade
Pre-6/1 release = 2026 Dead Cap: $35,485,000Pre-6/1 trade = 2026 Dead Cap: $12,000,000
Here's why:
- $23.485M 2026 salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2025 (injury guaranteed at sign)
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Great summary on Burden here. The only other red flag for some (not so much for me) was primarily a metric/statistic analysis angle about his usage. He missed on some key indicators because of it, and some of the bars he did clear come with question marks because of the amount of manufactured touches for him and the gimmicky offense where a lot of his stuff was at the LOS/screen game stuff and almost exclusively from the slot. Though you had to watch a bit more tape to find them, IMO he showed enough other plays of expanded route tree, high level route running, ball tracking, release skills, elusiveness in the open field, ability to play X, etc. to put him in my top 3.
I'm in the minority, but I had him ahead of Tet; basically 1B to my Egbuka 1A where I think his ceiling is higher than Egbuka. I just loved Egbuka's floor and think he could be a 8+ year high level contributer and a safer pick for me personally. The work ethic thing you brought up was probably my biggest concern; and though it might have been for show, the fact his first social post after sliding out of the first round was him working out at 1am moved the needle in the right direction for me a bit with that.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Just so you do not feel alone, he is my number two receiver in this draft (final rankings I have put Hunter at 1). I have Hunter/Burden in their own tier above the remainder of prospects. I drafted him at 1.08 and think he has as much upside as anyone in this draft. Is he a worker and can he develop are my only concerns, which you can say about any rookie. His starter kit of skills is tantalizing imo.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Jacob Gibbs
Luther Burden's ball tracking is one of his best traits.
Watch him stack and then trick the DB into thinking the ball was coming before making a final adjustment and tracking the catch perfectly
Special player.
Just bumping a couple quotes from page 1.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Crud, good point, I'm still never including Hunter when talking about this years WR ranks. I'd be in that same boat with you; Hunter bumping everything I previously said down one more spot haha.
DaddyFatSacks
Footballguy
Hurt already…soft tissue…not good. Traded back counting on Burden or Egbuka…landed Luther buyer remorse building.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Don't recall where, but thought I read that he landed on the ball oddly.
So not a hammy or whatnot. Maybe just sore ribs / chest / midsection.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I can think of many things to worry about other than his soft tissue. Get back to me late August / early September.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Yeah, and don't they make pills for that these days anyway?
DaddyFatSacks
Footballguy
They did. He went down on the 10th - seems like more than landing on a football oddly.
dipandglide
Footballguy
You know it's the offseason when people are sounding the alarm on players sitting out of May practices.
massraider
Footballguy
I took him in the 2nd, and was happy about it, but everything on this team is a projection.
We have no idea how many targets any of Moore, Odunze, Loveland and Burden get. I think a lot of people have ideas of what's gonna shake out, but I'm not ruling anything out.
I understand that Moore had some bad tape and some bad press, but he could easily be a new man this year, and catch 90 balls. Odunze could be a bum, or AJ Brown. Loveland could be LaPorta, or the Pitts.
Burden needs to prove he's good, but owners probably also need one of these other guys to fail.
We have no idea how many targets any of Moore, Odunze, Loveland and Burden get. I think a lot of people have ideas of what's gonna shake out, but I'm not ruling anything out.
I understand that Moore had some bad tape and some bad press, but he could easily be a new man this year, and catch 90 balls. Odunze could be a bum, or AJ Brown. Loveland could be LaPorta, or the Pitts.
Burden needs to prove he's good, but owners probably also need one of these other guys to fail.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Would help if the running game is average or worse, and the D gives up a lotta points
warpig33
Footballguy
From Roto:
"The Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs believes the Bears offense will use screen passes frequently in 2025.
The Justin Fields-led Bears, according to Biggs, used screens as a way of countering pressure, “a tendency defenses were able to pick up on pretty easily.” Last year, 18 percent of Caleb Williams’ pass attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage. He completed 94 of 99 screen throws for an average of 6.2 yards per attempt. Under new head coach Ben Johnson, Williams should continue using screens as an extension of the run game. “Wide receiver screens will be a part of just about every package, and the Bears have three talented catch-and-run targets in DJ Moore, Luther Burden. and Olamide Zaccheaus,” Biggs said. “They just can’t use the play as an answer for pressure over and over.” Burden, the 39th pick in the 2025 draft, was a screen merchant during much of his college career who ran 86 percent of his routes from the slot. He would benefit if Johnson’s Chicago offense features plenty of wideout screen plays."
"The Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs believes the Bears offense will use screen passes frequently in 2025.
The Justin Fields-led Bears, according to Biggs, used screens as a way of countering pressure, “a tendency defenses were able to pick up on pretty easily.” Last year, 18 percent of Caleb Williams’ pass attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage. He completed 94 of 99 screen throws for an average of 6.2 yards per attempt. Under new head coach Ben Johnson, Williams should continue using screens as an extension of the run game. “Wide receiver screens will be a part of just about every package, and the Bears have three talented catch-and-run targets in DJ Moore, Luther Burden. and Olamide Zaccheaus,” Biggs said. “They just can’t use the play as an answer for pressure over and over.” Burden, the 39th pick in the 2025 draft, was a screen merchant during much of his college career who ran 86 percent of his routes from the slot. He would benefit if Johnson’s Chicago offense features plenty of wideout screen plays."
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
After thinking about this for a while, I'm beginning to get the feeling like I drank some kool aid on this guy.
Color me nervous about the bust potential here.
Not every player that succeeds is a paragon of mental fortitude but it sure helps.
Color me nervous about the bust potential here.
Not every player that succeeds is a paragon of mental fortitude but it sure helps.
zamboni
Footballguy
Too early to tell, but he sure doesn't seem to be winning the coaching staff over thus far, and may not see the field a ton this year unless he has a strong camp.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Is there something outside of injury that is causing the concern?
We are firmly in "best shape of his life" season, but looking around, not seeing many negative reports, so curious why you are nervous or have soured on him.
Same for you, @zamboni?
zamboni
Footballguy
Can't speak to his abilities, as we haven't seen them yet. As mentioned, my only concern right now is whether he'll have the confidence of his coaching staff to get on the field a lot right off the bat. The best ability is availability and he's got some significant talent ahead of him on the depth chart.
Things can certainly change quickly though - time will tell.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
He may come off the field for 2 WR sets, but it feels hard to believe that after a couple weeks (if not right out the gates) he won't be getting snaps over the likes of Devin Duverynay, Tyler Scott, Miles Boykin, and the names only get more "who tf is that" from there. I think if anyone gets the nod over him to start it'll be Zaccheaus. I always liked his potential, but he's entering his 7th season and hasn't done anything even close to noteworthy yet in his career. If Burden doesn't outsnap that pile of leftovers by a couple weeks into the season; thats a very bad sign for him IMO. Right now, I'm really not too worried about it. I don't expect amazing production necessarily, but I 99.9% expect he's their WR3 in snap count. I also still think DJ Moore is gone sooner than later.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
Hype train: crickets
Injuries for Rookies (anecdotally) derail entire first years. Just a bad sign- whether or not I'm double counting here between the crickets and the injury is TBD
My perception is that he was viewed as a very talented prospect with two main flaws, only one of which was real.
1. Limited role- My perception is that the view of his flaws in role diversity are not entirely well founded. The talent eval that I trust thinks this. Both Waldman and Harmon think he has a high degree of role diversity. I trust both of them on this issue.
2. Mental fortitude/ Maturity- lack thereof? (the Henderson thread and his abundance of this is what got me thinking)- this is IMO what will hold him back if not injuries. He's not Jermain Burton but this is more broadly the pathway to failure that feels like it is a force multiplier for other areas of concern, chiefly because it inhibits growth.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
I’m with Waldman and Harmon in seeing Burden as talented and diverse enough to play all around the field. Unfortunately the Bears are stacked enough that he won’t be needed right away beyond the slot role. But you have a rookie HC who is already nervous about Burden not gaining trust with his QB, a young talent who needs to build confidence in his own right. I could easily see the veteran Zaccheaus beginning with the slot role until Burden gets up to speed. Odunze isn’t going anywhere, he is the Bears’ X for the forseeable future. Moore’s contract comes with major cap hits in 2025 and 2026 if he’s moved out, so expect him to stick around until 2027 at the earliest. And for any talk of draft capital investment in Burden, the investment is much higher in Loveland at the 10th overall pick. The talent is there for Burden but it’s going to take some time for the opportunity barring a series of injuries. If you focus strictly on the slot role the future is bright for Burden, but the target competition at the other positions is much stronger.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I don't think Moore will be a cut, I think he will be traded. (pending what BJ thinks of his young core of Odunze/Burden/Loveland come the end of this season)
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Good point, I didn’t realize until now that the cap hit is lowered significantly if it’s a trade. Wheels up for Burden if that happens.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
I think Burden is still not signed, and I live near Chicago and hear his agent is seeking a fully guaranteed contract. Maybe a training camp holdout might be looming? If he signs before camp, I am still high on him, particularly in dynasty.
FYI only two second round picks have signed and represent I think 30 of the 36 unsigned players.
Doubt we'll see any protracted holdouts but for some reason the Texans/Caserio opted to guarantee all of Jayden Higgins contract, which I'm sure is upsetting a ton of other NFL teams, because now it's what all the second rounds picks are holding out to get.
At this point it's not set any of them back. Burden's soft tissue injury has though.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I've soured big time ever since hearing the coach talk about him and knowing he isn't signed or available. I agree with the coach that he's missing hugely important reps. Sour for 2025 anyway, but the real take-home here in my mind is to bump Odunze up a notch in the rankings. I already have a feeling he is way too low. Maybe swap him and DJ Moore and it would be straight for me. But Burden is going to have a hard time catching up this year. Or at least there is a strong(er) chance of that now. Training camp will tell a lot but missing the spring season work is pretty big for rookies. And I think for WRs especially.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
this is actually pretty tame but well spoken. Maybe it's a step too far to say he is in the doghouse based on these coaches statements but he *is* missing incredibly important reps.
Have you guys seen Moore’s contract? In no way is this contract cuttable and really remains unlikely to be traded. DJ really signed a contract favorable to him.
zamboni
Footballguy
I'm no capologist, but I think if a team wants to trade someone, they'll make it happen. Whether they do, in fact, want to trade Moore is a different question.
I think every player signs a contract favorable to them, or as best as they can get, but his contract is without a doubt structured in a way that it's extremely easy to trade and I can't emphasize that enough.
The key is the guarantees are mainly in the salary and not signing bonus so that trading him nets small dead cap hits but gains sizeable actual cap space.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Clip is titled and edited a lil deceptively. He is literally reiterating the exact question he was asked by a media member (which was cut out from the beginning). Agree ALL reps are important for rookies. But if he is good to go for training camp in a few weeks I think it's more molehill than mountain. If he misses training camp, then I'd be concerned for his 2025 outlook. It's not like he's "holding out". He's with the team; just on a training table instead of running around in shorts. I'd imagine he's got a playbook and is in all team meetings. All feels a little overblown; like most NFL news is in June lol.
