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WR Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ (12 Viewers)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
2024 Season, also his rookie year, sum it up in 1 word - Overrated
People that take him in the 2nd round deserve what awaits them
One of the biggest gaffes possible in the first 2-3 rounds of any redraft.
Definitely won't be on the MoP this year
Wish him nothing but success but he can't possibly accumulate the numbers needed as a rookie to create any value whatsoever where he is slotted or being drafted.
People that take him in the 2nd round deserve what awaits them
One of the biggest gaffes possible in the first 2-3 rounds of any redraft.
Definitely won't be on the MoP this year
Wish him nothing but success but he can't possibly accumulate the numbers needed as a rookie to create any value whatsoever where he is slotted or being drafted.
-OZ-
Footballguy
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
Seriously though, of course he can possibly do it. It just isn’t a bet I’ll take in redraft.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Best WR prospect since Chase?
Why couldnt he have a Jefferson like rookie season with Murray?
Why couldnt he have a Jefferson like rookie season with Murray?
osubuckeyeman
Footballguy
My only concern with MHJ is injury. He got dinged up enough here and there, and his frame seems thin. Watching him at Ohio State, I held my breath many times. That could also be because the offense ran through him for the most part. He opened everything up for the Buckeyes. OSU had a lot of other talented players, but he was definitely the straw that stirred the drink.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
No reason tbh - looks like a can’t miss prospect to me
Early redraft ADP (e.g., not meaningful yet) he’s WR9/1.14
Underdog & best ball skews that at the moment
I imagine in most PPR home leagues we’ll see 6 RBs in the first & he won’t get drafted until late 2nd
No matter how good of a prospect I don’t think most seasoned FF managers want a rookie WR1, right?
In redraft I will likely let someone else take him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Of course they dont. Until that guy starts putting up numbers like Puka or sonething as a rookie.
I mean I do get it. Hes a rookie. Rookies usually dont perform as well as the same player would in their 2nd season and/or beyond that.
But passing on him becsuse he is a rookie means you better get a player with similar upside (WR 1 numbers) who has been that consistently.
If you acknowledge that rookie WR can put up top numbers right away I am not seeing why Harrisons chance of doing that isnt as good or better than the WRs that have done that before?
McBride led this team in targets last season and they let Brown go. There is plenty of opportunity available here.
I think MHJ could/should get about 10 targets per game. His opportunity could be similar to Hopkins in 2020.
Who else do the Cardinals have?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
FantasyPros has his projection at 89-1210-7. Good for WR13 last year.
Mike Clay (who skews very conservative) has him at 83-1121-6, also WR13 in his annual PDF.
Three rookie WRs have topped 1400 yards in the last 4 seasons.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Gotta say, I kinda hate the "drafting a player at his ceiling" analysis when it's applied to the very top picks of the draft. Of course you're drafting them at their ceiling. How much more can you expect out of them? When you pick a Jefferson, Chase, or Lamb you're really just hoping that they can repeat what they did the previous season. Does anyone picking Tyreek Hill think he's going to top 1799 yards this year?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I mean yeah, kind of. He's had 91/1799 and 91/1710 the last 2 years. He missed a 1 game last year and played a few games with an ankle sprain. The Dolphins had so many big 1st half leads that their passing numbers were really deflated for 2nd halfs. Tyreek's 1st vs 2nd half splits were pretty far apart. There's for sure room for him to hit 2000 yards.
bit.ly/3XZ5gIW
: K1 TikTok
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
I am seeing Harrison going pretty high in a lot of rankings. Some even in the early 2nd. Is that too high for a rookie WR?
It is for me. At that price I will let someone else take the chance. To me that is drafting at his ceiling so if he doesn't hit his ceiling it is a loss.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
WR9 in both ECR and ADP
Puka, Chase and JJ had Top 5 all time rookie WR seasons, all in the last 4 years. Before that, kind of have to go back to 2014 (OBJ & Evans) to find that kind of 1st year projection. 2003 Anquan Boldin is the only other truly elite rookie I can remember - lots of good ones, but if you’re taking someone at WR9 you’re hoping for Top 5 upside.
MHJ seems like he’s on a short list of best WR prospects ever. I think he’s worth it, but we’ve spoiled in the 2020s. Wasn’t always this common for rookie WRs to have that kind of impact.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Right. A little over a decade ago, the best WR prospects I can remember were Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. Truly elite prospects who had HoF careers. But neither eclipsed 800 yards as rookies.
Times have changed.
Doubt I’m going to have any MHJ in redraft this year. And that’s okay.
TheWinz
Footballguy
We have to remember that even though there have been some rookie WR's to finish as WR1's, they all weren't the top draft picks. Of the 6 mentioned by @BobbyLayne
Ja'Marr Chase - 1st WR taken
Mike Evans - 2nd WR taken
O'Dell Beckham Jr - 3rd WR taken
Justin Jefferson - 5th WR taken
Anquan Boldin - 6th WR taken
Puka Nacua - 20th WR taken
Ja'Marr Chase - 1st WR taken
Mike Evans - 2nd WR taken
O'Dell Beckham Jr - 3rd WR taken
Justin Jefferson - 5th WR taken
Anquan Boldin - 6th WR taken
Puka Nacua - 20th WR taken
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Nothing fresh here, but my thoughts revolve around these points on MHJ:
1. Folks seem to be hedging that MHJ is being drafted at his ceiling. But people seem to not be talking about his floor and that seems fairly high with target competition from Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Zay Jones. MHJ is going to get ALOT of targets.
2. The ARI defense is pretty bad...game scripts could be very favorable. Also, that's not to say that ARI will be bad.
3. We all saw the kid play. We know his genes. My guess is that he doesn't need to learn how to be a pro. It's been ingrained in him. If Garrett Wilson could put up 1100/4 with a combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White and Chris Strevler his rookie year...?
1. Folks seem to be hedging that MHJ is being drafted at his ceiling. But people seem to not be talking about his floor and that seems fairly high with target competition from Trey McBride, Michael Wilson and Zay Jones. MHJ is going to get ALOT of targets.
2. The ARI defense is pretty bad...game scripts could be very favorable. Also, that's not to say that ARI will be bad.
3. We all saw the kid play. We know his genes. My guess is that he doesn't need to learn how to be a pro. It's been ingrained in him. If Garrett Wilson could put up 1100/4 with a combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White and Chris Strevler his rookie year...?
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
One last thing to add:
Last year Puka was fantastic; 1575 YFS/6. But there was a time mid-season where he lulled. And during that time, because he was a 5th rounder...doubt crept in on who he was. Did he just get off to a fast start and now with Kupp back, he was more of a WR2? It didn't turn out to be the case as he finished strong.
MHJ is blue-chip - almost as blue chip as they come. We know with rookies if they have a big game - it's their 'he is him' moment that everyone remembers. Demand sky rockets and positional tiers get re-architected. If MHJ as one of those 8/150/2 games...that's different than almost any other WR having one.
Last year Puka was fantastic; 1575 YFS/6. But there was a time mid-season where he lulled. And during that time, because he was a 5th rounder...doubt crept in on who he was. Did he just get off to a fast start and now with Kupp back, he was more of a WR2? It didn't turn out to be the case as he finished strong.
MHJ is blue-chip - almost as blue chip as they come. We know with rookies if they have a big game - it's their 'he is him' moment that everyone remembers. Demand sky rockets and positional tiers get re-architected. If MHJ as one of those 8/150/2 games...that's different than almost any other WR having one.
Blick
Footballguy
Once that game happens, I think he instantly joins the JJ, Chase, CJ, Amon tier in dynasty.
He is still a rookie with zero games played. He is tied to Kyler who isn't the picture of health. What happens if he goes down? There is plenty of risk to that floor even if many think that is unlikely.
The game has changed but as mentioned up thread we have been tainted by recency bias with a few monster rookie seasons unlike the league has ever seen before. It's in the realm of possibility but so is a flop. In redraft I just think there are other players I have more confidence in going in that area of the draft meaning I likely won't pull the trigger.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Every WR's floor for the most part goes down if QB1 gets hurt. Puka Nucua if Stafford goes down has Jimmy G throwing him passes - ask Davante about him. Garrett Wilson/Tyrod Taylor. Ja'Marr Chase/Jake Browning...the list goes on.
As for recency bias...rookies surprise on the upside/downside just like veterans do. CeeDee Lamb and Stefon Diggs were similarly priced this time last year...it didn't work out that way. Is recency bias at work with Tony Pollard's ranking this year versus last? Austin Ekeler? Fact is that most rankings this time of year are an entire exercise of recency bias.
Sure but recency bias about the players actual performance has more relevance than saying since Chase/Jefferson/Puka had record setting years so MHJ will type of bias. Not all bias is created equal.
For me, a rookie that hasn't played in the NFL has a far bigger range of outcomes than someone that has played in the NFL for a few years and shown what their range is. This is why rookies in redraft are usually not on my list when their cost requires them to hit the ceiling of their range to come close to value.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Elite talent. Elite pedigree. Skies the limit for this dude. I just see Kyler breaking plays and bombing it downfield to him.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Hopkins in 2020 had 160 targets over 100 receptions with Murray.
I think MHJr will have similar opportunity as long as he is healthy. Murray has shown he can feed a top receiver well before so as long as he is healthy I think MHJr should have a very strong season.
For redraft I am likely not taking him at ADP but if he slides to end of the 2nd round I start thinking about it as the other guys I would take over him will be gone by then.
I think MHJr will have similar opportunity as long as he is healthy. Murray has shown he can feed a top receiver well before so as long as he is healthy I think MHJr should have a very strong season.
For redraft I am likely not taking him at ADP but if he slides to end of the 2nd round I start thinking about it as the other guys I would take over him will be gone by then.
He's not sliding into the late 2nd in any drafts or mock drafts that I have seen. As you said, he's probably looking at 170 targets assuming good health and playing all 17 games. Not your typical rookie as he is pro-ready, playing with a good QB and on a team that will probably be playing from behind a lot. He should go off at WR 7 at the latest IMO and wouldn't have any issues moving him above Chase and Jefferson into the top 5 (I wouldn't personally).
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
He went with the last pick in the 2nd in my 12-team PPR draft last night.
Surprising. Literally first real draft I have seen or heard of him dropping that far, at least in a PPR draft.
Doing IBL drafts right now (FBG has a team of 12 players participating) and while I'm not claiming that this draft has 72 FF savants in it, it's made up of mostly serious players, and in the 6 drafts, Harrison has gone:
2.02
2.02
1.12
2.03
2.04
1.12
While he may fall to late 2nd in random drafts, that will be an outlier IMO
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
His ADP is 17 in half PPR and 16 in full PPR on fantasypros, which is about halfway between the 1/2 turn and the 2/3 turn. So there are more drafts where he's being taken at or close to the 2/3 turn than you think.
GoBirds
Footballguy
Seems a bit rich for a rookie with an injury prone QB doesn’t it?
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I mean, so’s CeeDee Lamb, Chase, Bijan, etc.
Virtually all elite assets are drafted at their ceiling. Only JJ & AJB seem like they’re values in the 1st this year.
I just don’t see why it’s a knock on MH2. Either he can play or he can’t. If he has the talent & the target share, I’ll gladly take a flier in the early 2nd.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Murray has shown he can support a WR1 though if he does stay healthy.
Too rich for me. I'd rather have Nabers in the 4th or 5th.
I love Harrison long term, but I think that early 2nd is tough for ANY rookie WR, even the best one in 17 years.
Personally, I keep seeing Harrison going in the same spot as Puka (after his knee injury) and I feel like I greatly prefer Puka there, as the guy who already has shown his NFL ability, even if he's not 100% week 1. Even someone like Davante Adams, I find myself leaning over Harrison as a more trustworthy player.
