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WR Mike Williams, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
ericttspikes
Footballguy
I agree. I like the player and the situation and he's still cheap. I believe he has legit a WR 1 upside and is priced as a WR 4/5. FBG has him currently projected as the 77 WR below dudes like Dorsett, Kearse and Boldin. Total head scratcher.
Zyphros
Footballguy
It's a decent landing spot, but Tyrell stepped up in a huge way last year, Inman was serviceable Hunter Henry was breaking out and Melvin Gordon did well, even in the passing game. Not to even mention Keenan Allen who was out last year. There are a TON of mouths to feed there now and I have to believe it goes Keenan/Henry/Gordon then scraps for the rest of the team to fight over.
ETA: Totally forgot about Travis Benjamin too
ETA: Totally forgot about Travis Benjamin too
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
One of the most interesting cases I can recall. A top 10 NFL pick at WR that multiple top 10 teams were interested in and is not a gadget player, being reluctantly taken in the mid 1st round of fantasy rookie drafts behind multiple players drafted in the middle of the 2nd round in the NFL draft.
He may go lower in a lot of leagues in fantasy drafts than he did in the NFL draft that includes defensive players, linemen, and QBs.
I guess the question is what do we all think we know that NFL GMs don't? It's one thing with a guy like Will Fuller who was drafted to play a role that makes him more valuable in real life than fantasy. But this isn't a case like that.
He may go lower in a lot of leagues in fantasy drafts than he did in the NFL draft that includes defensive players, linemen, and QBs.
I guess the question is what do we all think we know that NFL GMs don't? It's one thing with a guy like Will Fuller who was drafted to play a role that makes him more valuable in real life than fantasy. But this isn't a case like that.
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Pwingles
Footballguy
maybe theyre hedging on KA?
I mean, a stud player is only beneficial if he can make plays for you. It's possible theyre trying to surround Rivers with weapons and at the same time, planning for the worst case scenario which is KA being hurt badly. With a solid run game, and that many big weapons, their RZ offense is gonna be nasty
I mean, a stud player is only beneficial if he can make plays for you. It's possible theyre trying to surround Rivers with weapons and at the same time, planning for the worst case scenario which is KA being hurt badly. With a solid run game, and that many big weapons, their RZ offense is gonna be nasty
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Hedging on a player is picking up a guy in the early 3rd round just in case. I don't think you draft a guy #7 overall just in case a guy doesn't stay healthy at a position that you were already getting good production out of even when that guy was already out.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Yeah, idk, it was a confusing pick for me too when there were better players available for positions they had bigger needs at. Just trying to see a rationale for it.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Faust
MVP
nirad3
Footballguy
Different roles within the offense. Williams isn't going to run the little dinky-dunk routes that Benjie does. If anything Mike will supplant Tyrell at some point and be the V-Jax/Floyd that Rivers has been missing for several years now.
Snorkelson
Footballguy
So some beat writer puts in his two cents in may, who cares? Nothing to see here- it's the time of year when coaches say things to motivate guys and beat writers are putting together way too early projections for their columns. Sure there is competition for targets, but m Williams will have his games I'm sure. Hard to use previous years as a gauge because Allen has been injured as well, so it's almost like they added 2 wr.
HusTheProphet @SleeperWireHus
#Chargers first-round pick Mike Williams is not participating in OTAs after injuring his back in his first practice of rookie minicamp.
8:33 AM - 24 May 2017
Cameron DaSilva
✔@camdasilva
Anthony Lynn is starting to worry about Mike Williams, who’s “getting behind” due to a back injury http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-rookie-nfl-draft-back-injury-052417 …
9:32 AM - 24 May 2017
#Chargers first-round pick Mike Williams is not participating in OTAs after injuring his back in his first practice of rookie minicamp.
8:33 AM - 24 May 2017
Cameron DaSilva
✔@camdasilva
Anthony Lynn is starting to worry about Mike Williams, who’s “getting behind” due to a back injury http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-rookie-nfl-draft-back-injury-052417 …
9:32 AM - 24 May 2017
Tau837
Footballguy
If he isn't competition for Williams, they wasted a lot of money in signing Benjamin to a $24M contract last year. Even if they release him after this season, which I expect, they will have paid Benjamin $13M for 2 seasons, the first of which was a clear disappointment.
Then again, this is the Chargers we are talking about. One of the worst run organizations in the league. The truth may be both, that they blew the Williams pick and the Benjamin signing...
Tau837
Footballguy
IMO it is much more likely that Mike Williams gradually replaces Benjamin over the course of the season, and 3 WR sets end up mostly having Williams and Williams on the outside, with Allen in the slot. Tyrell Williams is no joke, and Benjamin is ticketed for release after 2017 barring some kind of miraculous performance this year.
Overall, I think Mike Williams' role will be limited this year. I doubt he will be a useful fantasy player unless there are multiple injuries to other targets. Next year is his year to emerge, since Benjamin and Gates will both be gone, and maybe Inman, too.
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I think this was safe to say as soon as the ink dried. Williams is not the route I would have gone at #7 overall, but he at least has a chance to justify the Chargers' investment in him.
Chargers rookie WR Mike Williams has a mild disc herniation in his lower back. Out another two weeks. Will continue non-surgical treatment.
https://twitter.com/thejackwang/status/872132064929169408
https://twitter.com/thejackwang/status/872132064929169408
steelers1080
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Getting the vibe thats hes gonna be one of those rookie WRs ala Doctson,Coleman, Treadwell etc who are cheaper at some point than he is now.
In my dynasty league, Doctson was just traded for one pick later than he was taken last year.
I wouldn't pass on Williams if he was there at 6 or 7. Young 1st round picks maintain value, and all it takes is one guy to think they are buying low.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I didn't like this pick when the Chargers made it.......however I didn't like the Bosa pick and holdout either and that worked out......so ...grain of salt
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
My main worry would be reoccurrance, especially if he tries to come back too quickly.
Tau837
Footballguy
This probably isn't true as stated, depending on the definition of fantasy relevant. During Rivers' career, his pass catching RB, TE1, and WR1 have always been fantasy relevant. Occasionally his TE2 and WR2 have been fantasy relevant, but certainly not always. And forget about WR3+.
In 2017, Mike Williams will be WR2 at best (ETA: assuming Allen is healthy), and I am skeptical that he will even be that high in the target pecking order, even if he fully recovers from his back injury.
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Tau837
Footballguy
You wouldn't be surprised, or you are predicting that? Are you assuming Allen gets hurt?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am still baffled with this pick. The Chargers had a good young collection of pass catchers with Allen, Tyrell, Benjamin, Inman, Gates and Henry.
Benjamin is 27, has 4.36 speed and has averaged 55 yards per game over his last 30 games
Tyrell is 25, 6-3 has exceptional speed, agility, vertical and averaged 66 yards per game last year.
Keenan Allen is 25 and has averaged 69 yards a game over his career.
Rivers career average is 254 yards per game, but over the last three years it has been 280. So after you account for what those 3 guys are capable of doing, we have 90 yards left and still need to account for Gates, Henry and Gordon. I have trouble seeing how Mike Williams is going to offer a huge upgrade to the offense.
Also, Mike Williams was in no way worthy of being picked in the top 10, he just doesn't check a lot of boxes. Latimore, Humphrey, Hooker, Reddick...just so many possibilities to developing the defense.
Benjamin is 27, has 4.36 speed and has averaged 55 yards per game over his last 30 games
Tyrell is 25, 6-3 has exceptional speed, agility, vertical and averaged 66 yards per game last year.
Keenan Allen is 25 and has averaged 69 yards a game over his career.
Rivers career average is 254 yards per game, but over the last three years it has been 280. So after you account for what those 3 guys are capable of doing, we have 90 yards left and still need to account for Gates, Henry and Gordon. I have trouble seeing how Mike Williams is going to offer a huge upgrade to the offense.
Also, Mike Williams was in no way worthy of being picked in the top 10, he just doesn't check a lot of boxes. Latimore, Humphrey, Hooker, Reddick...just so many possibilities to developing the defense.
spider321
Footballguy
I wouldn't be surprised. I'm not necessarily predicting anything.
Imo, Mike could be their best WR when all of them are completely healthy.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I haven't followed this situation closely but haven't Williams and Allen both been pretty mediocre from an efficiency standpoint? Are we really sure they're some great players or were they just Philip Rivers #1 WR those years?
If Mike Williams lives up to his pedigree I don't think it's a stretch that he ends up being the #1 WR even when those guys are healthy (though I wouldn't think it happens this year). I'd have to think the Chargers think that is a very real possibility because the narrative that he's insurance for Allen's health doesn't give with his draft position. That's something you spend a 3rd round pick on, not the #7 overall pick.
If Mike Williams lives up to his pedigree I don't think it's a stretch that he ends up being the #1 WR even when those guys are healthy (though I wouldn't think it happens this year). I'd have to think the Chargers think that is a very real possibility because the narrative that he's insurance for Allen's health doesn't give with his draft position. That's something you spend a 3rd round pick on, not the #7 overall pick.
Tau837
Footballguy
Bottom line, the past 2 seasons, the Chargers had major injuries at WR/TE.
In 2015, their top 4 WRs (Allen, Floyd, Johnson, Inman) and their top 2 TEs (Gates, Green) combined to miss 25 games, and a lot of those games overlapped. They had to sign Vincent Brown off the street to play one week. :X
In 2016, their top 3 WRs (Allen, Benjamin, Johnson) missed 33 games, plus Benjamin played several games with a sprained PCL, and their 2015 target leader (Woodhead) missed 14 games.
These injuries had major negative impact on the offense.
Meanwhile, Woodhead, Johnson, Floyd, and Green are gone, and after this season, Gates will retire, Benjamin is a virtual lock to be gone, and Inman could also be gone.
Those are the reasons the Chargers drafted Williams. I did not agree with the pick and felt they should have traded down if possible, or, if not, drafted S Hooker or DL Allen.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Seems like you can direct things this way around basically anything.
Going into last offseason the injuries SD had along the offensive line in the prior two years (2014/2015) make the WR corps issues you're listing look like a picture of health. Yet all they invested in last year's draft at the position was a 3rd round pick, which is about right when you're looking to add injury depth for a unit.
The rest of that turnover you listed is pretty normal stuff. Teams roll over backup TEs and 4th string WRs all the time. It's not noteworthy. Benjamin is only a virtual lock to be gone BECAUSE they drafted Williams so that doesn't really apply.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yes, and that was a mistake. Telesco was very fortunate that the Bears released Slauson after last year's draft, enabling the Chargers to sign him. He was their best OL last season, but they still needed OL help so badly that they overpaid for Okung and spent 2nd and 3rd round picks on OL. The team will have 3 new OL starters this year, plus it appears Slauson will switch positions. The only incumbent is RT Barksdale, and he only survived due to his contract and due to lack of resources to apply after turning over 3 other starting spots.
The bolded is false. Barring an unexpectedly strong rebound season, Benjamin was a lock to be gone after this season before the draft occurred, for three reasons:
1. He did not perform up to his contract last season, and it wasn't close. In particular, a significant part of his expected value was as a punt returner, and he was so bad at it the team yanked him after just 9 punt returns, instead preferring to go with such noteworthies as Dexter McCluster and Isaiah Burse.
2. As a WR, Benjamin was signed to stretch the field. But last season, Tyrell Williams emerged as a better, younger, bigger, cheaper WR who can fill that role.
3. His contract gives the team a reasonably easy out after the 2017 season.
The combination of those things made Benjamin very expendable after this season, regardless of what the Chargers did in the draft.
Look, we are not really disagreeing. The answer can be both. In other words, the team could have recognized it needed insurance for Allen but also recognized that some key targets would need to be replaced in the near future and decided to address both needs with a WR1 caliber player.
I hope Mike Williams turns into a legit NFL WR1. I am not confident that will happen, and IMO if it does happen it won't be until next year or later.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Mike Williams doesn't win with speed, but with contested catches. Rivers can't be comfortable using that skill until they have chemistry. Missing time with an injury like this is a big deal when you're trying to develop that chemistry. You can't practice out muscling a d back with a red no contact jersey, and back injuries are the kind of injury where you feel good, feel good, then ouch.
That said, the good news is that Williams presents a big matchup problem. Say you have Allen, Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams on the field. You have to put your number one on Allen. You need someone with speed for Tyrell. Your big safety/ cover line backer is on Henry. You have to respect the run and the pass to Gordon. So you end up with Mike Williams in single coverage against a mismatch a lot of the time. But if you run into a team that can cover him, you bring in Benjamin a little more and pressure the defense vertically.
So my guess is that Williams has one of those weird rookie stat lines where he goes 2 for 23 one week and then randomly blows up 8 for 110 another, and if he stays healthy he gets stronger as the season goes on, but if he starts to get too good or get too much respect he could hit a wall for a little bit. Hard to project week to week, but decent end of year numbers.
That said, the good news is that Williams presents a big matchup problem. Say you have Allen, Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams on the field. You have to put your number one on Allen. You need someone with speed for Tyrell. Your big safety/ cover line backer is on Henry. You have to respect the run and the pass to Gordon. So you end up with Mike Williams in single coverage against a mismatch a lot of the time. But if you run into a team that can cover him, you bring in Benjamin a little more and pressure the defense vertically.
So my guess is that Williams has one of those weird rookie stat lines where he goes 2 for 23 one week and then randomly blows up 8 for 110 another, and if he stays healthy he gets stronger as the season goes on, but if he starts to get too good or get too much respect he could hit a wall for a little bit. Hard to project week to week, but decent end of year numbers.
