WR Puka Nacua LAR (4 Viewers)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The injury stuff is again my big issue but if I had to predict THE WR1 next year he'd be number 2 or 3 on my list.

Possible. I’m not entirely sold on that either. He’s a dude who makes the absolute most of his abilities. IMO his abilities are a little bit limited, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to continue to perform at his ceiling.

Not saying it can’t happen, it’s a little too small of a sample size for me to have that sort of confidence (and price him accordingly) - especially with guys like Lamb & JJ in the mix behind Chase. Also a handful of other dudes with small sample size or changing circumstances (Wilson, London, Nabers, etc)

I get the optimism, and again, not at all dismissing the potential for that. He’s just a guy I’m not ready to anoint yet, despite the incredibly impressive start to his career.

 

[menobrown]

The injury stuff is again my big issue but if I had to predict THE WR1 next year he'd be number 2 or 3 on my list.

Possible. I’m not entirely sold on that either. He’s a dude who makes the absolute most of his abilities. IMO his abilities are a little bit limited, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to continue to perform at his ceiling.

Not saying it can’t happen, it’s a little too small of a sample size for me to have that sort of confidence (and price him accordingly) - especially with guys like Lamb & JJ in the mix behind Chase. Also a handful of other dudes with small sample size or changing circumstances (Wilson, London, Nabers, etc)

I get the optimism, and again, not at all dismissing the potential for that. He’s just a guy I’m not ready to anoint yet, despite the incredibly impressive start to his career.

Honestly don't feel like I'm being optimistic at all, just reality of the situation and fwiw I'm not looking at this from prism of some biased dynasty owner who is trying to hard to see something. I do own him in dynasty but one team and that one team is just over 5% of my dynasty investment so it's not much.

I just see a guy who was #1 in the NFL in fantasy points per route run WITHOUT benefit of scoring hardly any TD's, who was the most productive receiver in the entire league on a per route basis per Matt Harmon and by a lot, who is basically replacing a guy who won the triple crown in this offense a few years ago.

There are definitely several worthy candidates to pick from if trying to determine if anyone should replace Chase as the WR1 who would it be, I'd offer up 6 candidates in particular, but if I knew all of them would stay healthy I'd put him as the most likely of the 6.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The injury stuff is again my big issue but if I had to predict THE WR1 next year he'd be number 2 or 3 on my list.

Possible. I’m not entirely sold on that either. He’s a dude who makes the absolute most of his abilities. IMO his abilities are a little bit limited, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to continue to perform at his ceiling.

Not saying it can’t happen, it’s a little too small of a sample size for me to have that sort of confidence (and price him accordingly) - especially with guys like Lamb & JJ in the mix behind Chase. Also a handful of other dudes with small sample size or changing circumstances (Wilson, London, Nabers, etc)

I get the optimism, and again, not at all dismissing the potential for that. He’s just a guy I’m not ready to anoint yet, despite the incredibly impressive start to his career.

Honestly don't feel like I'm being optimistic at all, just reality of the situation and fwiw I'm not looking at this from prism of some biased dynasty owner who is trying to hard to see something. I do own him in dynasty but one team and that one team is just over 5% of my dynasty investment so it's not much.

I just see a guy who was #1 in the NFL in fantasy points per route run WITHOUT benefit of scoring hardly any TD's, who was the most productive receiver in the entire league on a per route basis per Matt Harmon and by a lot, who is basically replacing a guy who won the triple crown in this offense a few years ago.

There are definitely several worthy candidates to pick from if trying to determine if anyone should replace Chase as the WR1 who would it be, I'd offer up 6 candidates in particular, but if I knew all of them would stay healthy I'd put him as the most likely of the 6.

Yep, I didn’t mean it like you’re overly optimistic about him. Just normal healthy well-adjusted optimism. I think you have a fair take.

I just see a few reasons that temper my optimism for him, and in the context of the discussion with Dez I might prefer spending less on an AJB (for example) for those reasons.

In general I like Puka a lot. I won’t position myself on an “anti” side of a Puka argument by any stretch.

All players have their strengths and flaws. I wish the Puka shareholders nothing but success.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Why do you think he's overvalued?

Short term he’s probably fine. There are a few things that concern me long-term.

He has a history of both soft tissue injuries (dating back to college) and more recently concussions. One so bad it had him openly reflecting on how long he would play.

He said he only wants to play until he’s 30. He wants more kids, wants to put family 1st, etc. That was last year, so that’s what, 5 seasons? Not an ideal thing for your highly priced WR1 to be saying from a dynasty perspective.

QB is murky at best looking forward. I don’t see an in-house option after Stafford hangs it up, and Stafford looked pretty bad at times last year. He has his own injury history, and back issues can be instantly devastating if they crop up again. Draft sharks injury predictor isn’t infallible, but his history image looks like a pincushion.

To a lesser degree, I’m interested in seeing what Adams presence does for his production this year, vs having the ghost of Cooper Kupp out there. Adams is a very different type of WR, and his targets may overlap Puka’s a bit. Again, this isn’t as much of a concern, but it may not be nothing, either.

All told, I just don’t have Puka as high as the FF community at large seems to. I like the dude and respect his game. He was my best 5th round pick ever in 2x 16 team leagues. But for the prices discussed above, I think he’s a bit over valued. Especially in the discussion of Chase, JJ, & Lamb tiers. I have him a tier down for reasons listed.

I’m sure most will disagree with me. It’s not a hill I’ll die on, but my gut feel is that I would absolutely sell Puka for those prices, but I would not be a buyer at those prices.

Each to their own, of course.

Personally I think I agree with @menobrown on this one.

I think Puka is undervalued if anything.

His rookie year handily beat Nabers', a guy that is valued significantly higher than him. He was right on pace in year 2 other than the injury, and now his target share could go up even more with Kupp leaving.

The injuries are a real concern, I totally get that.

The age 30 retirement thing doesn't really bother me. For starters, we'll see if he actually lives up to that. Didn't Tyreek have the same age 30 retirement goal? Further, we really shouldn't expect much out of those age 30+ years anyway. WRs get discarded a lot earlier than they used to now, and reality is not many of these guys do a whole lot after 30 anymore. Only 3 of the top 30 WRs last year were over age 30, and two of those were barely over (Tyreek and Evans). Adams was the lone "old" guy, at the ripe age of 31.

Number of top 10 WR finishes by age 30+ WRs the last few years...

2024: 0
2023: 1
2022: 0
2021: 0

That lone one was Mike Evans towards the bottom of the top 10 in 2023, where had just turned 30 years and 1 week old at the start of the year.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Why do you think he's overvalued?

Short term he’s probably fine. There are a few things that concern me long-term.

He has a history of both soft tissue injuries (dating back to college) and more recently concussions. One so bad it had him openly reflecting on how long he would play.

He said he only wants to play until he’s 30. He wants more kids, wants to put family 1st, etc. That was last year, so that’s what, 5 seasons? Not an ideal thing for your highly priced WR1 to be saying from a dynasty perspective.

QB is murky at best looking forward. I don’t see an in-house option after Stafford hangs it up, and Stafford looked pretty bad at times last year. He has his own injury history, and back issues can be instantly devastating if they crop up again. Draft sharks injury predictor isn’t infallible, but his history image looks like a pincushion.

To a lesser degree, I’m interested in seeing what Adams presence does for his production this year, vs having the ghost of Cooper Kupp out there. Adams is a very different type of WR, and his targets may overlap Puka’s a bit. Again, this isn’t as much of a concern, but it may not be nothing, either.

All told, I just don’t have Puka as high as the FF community at large seems to. I like the dude and respect his game. He was my best 5th round pick ever in 2x 16 team leagues. But for the prices discussed above, I think he’s a bit over valued. Especially in the discussion of Chase, JJ, & Lamb tiers. I have him a tier down for reasons listed.

I’m sure most will disagree with me. It’s not a hill I’ll die on, but my gut feel is that I would absolutely sell Puka for those prices, but I would not be a buyer at those prices.

Each to their own, of course.

Personally I think I agree with @menobrown on this one.

I think Puka is undervalued if anything.

His rookie year handily beat Nabers', a guy that is valued significantly higher than him. He was right on pace in year 2 other than the injury, and now his target share could go up even more with Kupp leaving.

The injuries are a real concern, I totally get that.

The age 30 retirement thing doesn't really bother me. For starters, we'll see if he actually lives up to that. Didn't Tyreek have the same age 30 retirement goal? Further, we really shouldn't expect much out of those age 30+ years anyway. WRs get discarded a lot earlier than they used to now, and reality is not many of these guys do a whole lot after 30 anymore. Only 3 of the top 30 WRs last year were over age 30, and two of those were barely over (Tyreek and Evans). Adams was the lone "old" guy, at the ripe age of 31.

Number of top 10 WR finishes by age 30+ WRs the last few years...

2024: 0
2023: 1
2022: 0
2021: 0

That lone one was Mike Evans towards the bottom of the top 10 in 2023, where had just turned 30 years and 1 week old at the start of the year.

Sure. All good & I respect your opinion. I was asked why I thought he was overvalued & answered. We all have our takes.

ETA: maybe scroll up and see what Dez was looking to offer for him. That’s the context of this discussion. Wasn’t sure if you came in late to that.

 

[JoeJoe88]

Why do you think he's overvalued?

Short term he’s probably fine. There are a few things that concern me long-term.

He has a history of both soft tissue injuries (dating back to college) and more recently concussions. One so bad it had him openly reflecting on how long he would play.

He said he only wants to play until he’s 30. He wants more kids, wants to put family 1st, etc. That was last year, so that’s what, 5 seasons? Not an ideal thing for your highly priced WR1 to be saying from a dynasty perspective.

QB is murky at best looking forward. I don’t see an in-house option after Stafford hangs it up, and Stafford looked pretty bad at times last year. He has his own injury history, and back issues can be instantly devastating if they crop up again. Draft sharks injury predictor isn’t infallible, but his history image looks like a pincushion.

To a lesser degree, I’m interested in seeing what Adams presence does for his production this year, vs having the ghost of Cooper Kupp out there. Adams is a very different type of WR, and his targets may overlap Puka’s a bit. Again, this isn’t as much of a concern, but it may not be nothing, either.

All told, I just don’t have Puka as high as the FF community at large seems to. I like the dude and respect his game. He was my best 5th round pick ever in 2x 16 team leagues. But for the prices discussed above, I think he’s a bit over valued. Especially in the discussion of Chase, JJ, & Lamb tiers. I have him a tier down for reasons listed.

I’m sure most will disagree with me. It’s not a hill I’ll die on, but my gut feel is that I would absolutely sell Puka for those prices, but I would not be a buyer at those prices.

Each to their own, of course.

Personally I think I agree with @menobrown on this one.

I think Puka is undervalued if anything.

His rookie year handily beat Nabers', a guy that is valued significantly higher than him. He was right on pace in year 2 other than the injury, and now his target share could go up even more with Kupp leaving.

The injuries are a real concern, I totally get that.

The age 30 retirement thing doesn't really bother me. For starters, we'll see if he actually lives up to that. Didn't Tyreek have the same age 30 retirement goal? Further, we really shouldn't expect much out of those age 30+ years anyway. WRs get discarded a lot earlier than they used to now, and reality is not many of these guys do a whole lot after 30 anymore. Only 3 of the top 30 WRs last year were over age 30, and two of those were barely over (Tyreek and Evans). Adams was the lone "old" guy, at the ripe age of 31.

Number of top 10 WR finishes by age 30+ WRs the last few years...

2024: 0
2023: 1
2022: 0
2021: 0

That lone one was Mike Evans towards the bottom of the top 10 in 2023, where had just turned 30 years and 1 week old at the start of the year.

Sure. All good & I respect your opinion. I was asked why I thought he was overvalued & answered. We all have our takes.

ETA: maybe scroll up and see what Dez was looking to offer for him. That’s the context of this discussion. Wasn’t sure if you came in late to that.

Personally, that trade seems light to me for a player of Puka’s caliber.

The 1.10 is good, but if that’s the best piece out of five that you’re sending me for Puka then no thanks.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Why do you think he's overvalued?

Short term he’s probably fine. There are a few things that concern me long-term.

He has a history of both soft tissue injuries (dating back to college) and more recently concussions. One so bad it had him openly reflecting on how long he would play.

He said he only wants to play until he’s 30. He wants more kids, wants to put family 1st, etc. That was last year, so that’s what, 5 seasons? Not an ideal thing for your highly priced WR1 to be saying from a dynasty perspective.

QB is murky at best looking forward. I don’t see an in-house option after Stafford hangs it up, and Stafford looked pretty bad at times last year. He has his own injury history, and back issues can be instantly devastating if they crop up again. Draft sharks injury predictor isn’t infallible, but his history image looks like a pincushion.

To a lesser degree, I’m interested in seeing what Adams presence does for his production this year, vs having the ghost of Cooper Kupp out there. Adams is a very different type of WR, and his targets may overlap Puka’s a bit. Again, this isn’t as much of a concern, but it may not be nothing, either.

All told, I just don’t have Puka as high as the FF community at large seems to. I like the dude and respect his game. He was my best 5th round pick ever in 2x 16 team leagues. But for the prices discussed above, I think he’s a bit over valued. Especially in the discussion of Chase, JJ, & Lamb tiers. I have him a tier down for reasons listed.

I’m sure most will disagree with me. It’s not a hill I’ll die on, but my gut feel is that I would absolutely sell Puka for those prices, but I would not be a buyer at those prices.

Each to their own, of course.

Personally I think I agree with @menobrown on this one.

I think Puka is undervalued if anything.

His rookie year handily beat Nabers', a guy that is valued significantly higher than him. He was right on pace in year 2 other than the injury, and now his target share could go up even more with Kupp leaving.

The injuries are a real concern, I totally get that.

The age 30 retirement thing doesn't really bother me. For starters, we'll see if he actually lives up to that. Didn't Tyreek have the same age 30 retirement goal? Further, we really shouldn't expect much out of those age 30+ years anyway. WRs get discarded a lot earlier than they used to now, and reality is not many of these guys do a whole lot after 30 anymore. Only 3 of the top 30 WRs last year were over age 30, and two of those were barely over (Tyreek and Evans). Adams was the lone "old" guy, at the ripe age of 31.

Number of top 10 WR finishes by age 30+ WRs the last few years...

2024: 0
2023: 1
2022: 0
2021: 0

That lone one was Mike Evans towards the bottom of the top 10 in 2023, where had just turned 30 years and 1 week old at the start of the year.

Sure. All good & I respect your opinion. I was asked why I thought he was overvalued & answered. We all have our takes.

ETA: maybe scroll up and see what Dez was looking to offer for him. That’s the context of this discussion. Wasn’t sure if you came in late to that.

Personally, that trade seems light to me for a player of Puka’s caliber.

The 1.10 is good, but if that’s the best piece out of five that you’re sending me for Puka then no thanks.

There ya go. I figured I’d be in the minority with that opinion.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Why do you think he's overvalued?

Short term he’s probably fine. There are a few things that concern me long-term.

He has a history of both soft tissue injuries (dating back to college) and more recently concussions. One so bad it had him openly reflecting on how long he would play.

He said he only wants to play until he’s 30. He wants more kids, wants to put family 1st, etc. That was last year, so that’s what, 5 seasons? Not an ideal thing for your highly priced WR1 to be saying from a dynasty perspective.

QB is murky at best looking forward. I don’t see an in-house option after Stafford hangs it up, and Stafford looked pretty bad at times last year. He has his own injury history, and back issues can be instantly devastating if they crop up again. Draft sharks injury predictor isn’t infallible, but his history image looks like a pincushion.

To a lesser degree, I’m interested in seeing what Adams presence does for his production this year, vs having the ghost of Cooper Kupp out there. Adams is a very different type of WR, and his targets may overlap Puka’s a bit. Again, this isn’t as much of a concern, but it may not be nothing, either.

All told, I just don’t have Puka as high as the FF community at large seems to. I like the dude and respect his game. He was my best 5th round pick ever in 2x 16 team leagues. But for the prices discussed above, I think he’s a bit over valued. Especially in the discussion of Chase, JJ, & Lamb tiers. I have him a tier down for reasons listed.

I’m sure most will disagree with me. It’s not a hill I’ll die on, but my gut feel is that I would absolutely sell Puka for those prices, but I would not be a buyer at those prices.

Each to their own, of course.

Personally I think I agree with @menobrown on this one.

I think Puka is undervalued if anything.

His rookie year handily beat Nabers', a guy that is valued significantly higher than him. He was right on pace in year 2 other than the injury, and now his target share could go up even more with Kupp leaving.

The injuries are a real concern, I totally get that.

The age 30 retirement thing doesn't really bother me. For starters, we'll see if he actually lives up to that. Didn't Tyreek have the same age 30 retirement goal? Further, we really shouldn't expect much out of those age 30+ years anyway. WRs get discarded a lot earlier than they used to now, and reality is not many of these guys do a whole lot after 30 anymore. Only 3 of the top 30 WRs last year were over age 30, and two of those were barely over (Tyreek and Evans). Adams was the lone "old" guy, at the ripe age of 31.

Number of top 10 WR finishes by age 30+ WRs the last few years...

2024: 0
2023: 1
2022: 0
2021: 0

That lone one was Mike Evans towards the bottom of the top 10 in 2023, where had just turned 30 years and 1 week old at the start of the year.

Sure. All good & I respect your opinion. I was asked why I thought he was overvalued & answered. We all have our takes.

ETA: maybe scroll up and see what Dez was looking to offer for him. That’s the context of this discussion. Wasn’t sure if you came in late to that.

Yep was just adding my opinion to the discussion of the player. Wasn't trying to challenge your position or anything, which is a totally valid take.

 

[Dez]

Dynasty is such an interesting game. What one sees as too much another sees as not enough.
I have seen some real squirely deals in my time and they have been very recent. Trades that you can't believe ever went down.
Just this year along I seen Jefferson get traded twice once for the worst deal possible ever a deal that you can't believe got accepted.
Seen Lamb go bye bye as well. These are guys I just can't ever trade myself even for king ransom.
The deals made were also none for a kings ransom in my eyes.
A couple years ago before McBride broke out in a TEP league a guy who was rebuilding sent McBride away for a future 3rd after taking him in the late 1st the year before.
He had done nothing to that point it was like a few weeks into the 2023 season before Ertz went down but why in the world would u draft a guy in round 1 then get out 1 year and 3 games later for a 3rd ? People do unthinkable things. Things you would never even make an offer of to them becuase you think you would insult them this is how others get the deals you would easily do.

2 years ago I offered 3 1st round picks AND 2 2nd round picks for Jefferson the guy declined. His team never competed and then he quit the league after last year.
Then the new owner comes in and starts a rebuild and traded Jefferson for the 1.09, 2.09 and Downs. How is that even possible ? Why not shop the pick ? Why on Earth would you ever accept that ? Then trades the 1.09 for a 2026 1st and 2nd from the team that now has Jefferson and is the favorite to win the league ?

Mind boggling.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Dynasty is such an interesting game. What one sees as too much another sees as not enough.
I have seen some real squirely deals in my time and they have been very recent. Trades that you can't believe ever went down.
Just this year along I seen Jefferson get traded twice once for the worst deal possible ever a deal that you can't believe got accepted.
Seen Lamb go bye bye as well. These are guys I just can't ever trade myself even for king ransom.
The deals made were also none for a kings ransom in my eyes.
A couple years ago before McBride broke out in a TEP league a guy who was rebuilding sent McBride away for a future 3rd after taking him in the late 1st the year before.
He had done nothing to that point it was like a few weeks into the 2023 season before Ertz went down but why in the world would u draft a guy in round 1 then get out 1 year and 3 games later for a 3rd ? People do unthinkable things. Things you would never even make an offer of to them becuase you think you would insult them this is how others get the deals you would easily do.

2 years ago I offered 3 1st round picks AND 2 2nd round picks for Jefferson the guy declined. His team never competed and then he quit the league after last year.
Then the new owner comes in and starts a rebuild and traded Jefferson for the 1.09, 2.09 and Downs. How is that even possible ? Why not shop the pick ? Why on Earth would you ever accept that ? Then trades the 1.09 for a 2026 1st and 2nd from the team that now has Jefferson and is the favorite to win the league ?

Mind boggling.

No doubt - I saw some of those that you posted on the trades page & was mystified. I see stuff like that on Reddit all the time.

Do you think I should have accepted this?

 

[pinkstapler]

Dynasty is such an interesting game. What one sees as too much another sees as not enough.
I have seen some real squirely deals in my time and they have been very recent. Trades that you can't believe ever went down.
Just this year along I seen Jefferson get traded twice once for the worst deal possible ever a deal that you can't believe got accepted.
Seen Lamb go bye bye as well. These are guys I just can't ever trade myself even for king ransom.
The deals made were also none for a kings ransom in my eyes.
A couple years ago before McBride broke out in a TEP league a guy who was rebuilding sent McBride away for a future 3rd after taking him in the late 1st the year before.
He had done nothing to that point it was like a few weeks into the 2023 season before Ertz went down but why in the world would u draft a guy in round 1 then get out 1 year and 3 games later for a 3rd ? People do unthinkable things. Things you would never even make an offer of to them becuase you think you would insult them this is how others get the deals you would easily do.

2 years ago I offered 3 1st round picks AND 2 2nd round picks for Jefferson the guy declined. His team never competed and then he quit the league after last year.
Then the new owner comes in and starts a rebuild and traded Jefferson for the 1.09, 2.09 and Downs. How is that even possible ? Why not shop the pick ? Why on Earth would you ever accept that ? Then trades the 1.09 for a 2026 1st and 2nd from the team that now has Jefferson and is the favorite to win the league ?

Mind boggling.

Little off topic; but what you just described is why I think any dynasty league that's ever in a position where they need to replace an owner needs to give the new guy a strong orientation and possibly a short blackout period where they don't make any moves for the first week or two. Every league is so different as are people's skill/involvement levels. One of those orientation points I always put out there is to use the trade block function, or at the very least post in chat when you're looking to trade away/for players/positions/picks. I not only get frustrated with an unshopped trade going through, but also have been in leagues full of gaslighters who love spouting "you got robbed, I would have gladly paid X more for that guy" when they 100% would not have haha. So being more open and public with trading helps cut down on all of it.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think with Puka, the upside really is Kupp's ridiculous 2021. I mean his per game avg prorated over a 17 game season to this point in his career: 111.7/1503.2/5.5

Certainly his TD production has been middling, but Kupp was generally around 5-6 thru much of his career with explosion exceptions which is kind of the way I feel about Puka...where he finds some zen type of connection with Stafford in the red zone.

Yes, Davante is there and perhaps his ceiling isn't as attainable this year, particularly TD wise, although he's been a clear top level WR1 even without TD's. But going into Year 3...I mean he's still ascendent.