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WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (1 Viewer)

Last 5 days on FFPC Best Ball Tourney (28 drafts) he has gone no earlier than 10.08 as WR52 on average
For June on FFPC Best Ball Tourney (129 drafts) he has gone no earlier than 10.05 as WR53 on average

FPC last 5 days 28 drafts going as WR58
FPC for June 122 drafts going as WR59

There have been 15 Main Event Drafts and he is going WR57 no earlier than 11.02.

In March Never Too Early BB Tourney he was WR59.

What spike? It almost HAS to be Scott Fish Bowl related.
 
MTskibum said:
That site has him ranked as #5 overall.

ftnfantasy.com

SFB14 Rankings: Top 300 for 2024 Scott Fish Bowl

FTN's Tyler Loechner offers up his top 300 rankings for the 2024 Scott Fish Bowl.
ftnfantasy.com ftnfantasy.com
Click to expand...
Scroll way down the link, and the explanation of Shaheed's ranking is given. Fish is aware it's a stark outlier.

SFB14 Return Yards Scoring​

The NFL has adopted an XFL-like kickoff policy on a trial basis in 2024, and the Scott Fish Bowl 14 awards 0.2 fantasy points per return yard.

That’s why Rashid Shaheed ranks fifth overall (!). But a few important notes on the methodology (and notes of caution):
  • Last year, 22% of kickoffs were returned. My conservativeestimates are that 50% will be returned this year
    • My primary source is this NFL operations page, which says: “special teams coaches estimate that between 50–60% of kickoffs will be returned”
    • I say it’s conservative because the XFL had a 97% kickoff return rate using very similar rules
    • If the NFL comes remotely close to a 97% return rate, kickoff return specialists will completely break SFB14. I ran the numbers at 50%, 60%, 70%, etc., and once you reach the higher levels, fourth-string running backs become top-30 SFB14 players
  • More importantly: We don’t know who will be returning kickoffs yet! We know players like Shaheed and Marvin Mims are good bets, but the new rules may shake everything up.
Click to expand...
 
Rankings =/= ADP

Show me non-Scott Fish Bowl drafts (not chatter or hype but actual results) where he is going any different than he has since March.

My SFB draft is this coming Monday and I know many others have been going on so I should probably start thinking about this return yardage stuff. Lots of chatter about depth chart and who the assigned returners might be. Shaheed obviously getting boost from that but I think J Reed and a few others are also interesting in the SFB context.

Aaaaannnnnyway I was just making the point he is way too cheap. In 1000s of leagues in a few different formats across the multiverse. I think he *should* be about WR20 but you can get him for WR55 sooooo yeah IDK this seems like Fantasy 101 stuff to me. And I still don't get it. The supposed warts are that Olave is there (to take coverage away IMO - two good weapons are better than one even in fantasy, nay especially in fantasy) and that he had a little trouble on the left side of Matt Harmon's perception reception route tree (but he finished below the threshold of 70% in 4/5 of those left hand categories at around 68-69% with the only one bad route on either side coming in at 25%).

x.com

x.com x.com

Not sure how much more flash and involvement you want from someone going into year 2 and to have such an accessible fantasy cost. He was the guy I was the most torn over how to keep on my FFPC dynasty rosters this last offseason. Again, I don't understand. What's his big weaknesses that the market is fading??
 
MTskibum said:
Max Power said:
Should I know who Scott Fish is? Seems like a no... I like Shaheed, but lets be real
Click to expand...

Alot of the Sirius XM talking heads do Scott fishbowl and they talk about it alot.

Edit: Or they did in years past. I refuse to listen to it this year because I think they were the main problem with my fantasy teams last 2 seasons.
Click to expand...
The Scott Fish Bowl specific strategy stuff absolutely floods the airwaves these days of summer and it easily overlaps and crosses over where it shouldn't.
 
barackdhouse said:
Bri said:
One of the things I do is track % of change. My goal is usually to see who is locked in where. He's been 54-56 range since whenever I started so I've got him as a guarantee for what I do.
Now he's changed to WR20 on eight percent of drafts. It's significant since it was never fluctuating.
Click to expand...
I need links. I posted a bunch above. Where? If you're right then yes it would be significant but I just posted above a bunch of stuff showing him as WR50+. Where are you getting your info? I'm sorry to press but it doesn't add up.
Click to expand...
Others have given links
His high at MFL is 20WR
 
barackdhouse said:
Bri said:
One of the things I do is track % of change. My goal is usually to see who is locked in where. He's been 54-56 range since whenever I started so I've got him as a guarantee for what I do.
Now he's changed to WR20 on eight percent of drafts. It's significant since it was never fluctuating.
Click to expand...
I need links. I posted a bunch above. Where? If you're right then yes it would be significant but I just posted above a bunch of stuff showing him as WR50+. Where are you getting your info? I'm sorry to press but it doesn't add up.
Click to expand...
You are responding as if it's just you and me meanwhile others have posted similar
 
Question for @barackdhouse and @Bri
For a PPR redraft league that offers nothing for punt/kick returns, where would YOU rank him? If you prefer projections vs ranks, that's fine too. I just wanted to see your thoughts vs the normal WR50'ish that he currently sits at. Thanx
 
Regarding the new kickoff rules in leagues that give return yardage. It likely helps but I'd temper your expectations on the impact of that rule. Have heard both Chris Ballard and Daniel Jeremiah both say in last few weeks they are hearing some teams might just opt to kick the ball into the end zone and have it placed on the 30. Suppose not every team will take this approach so again the rule helps, just not sure as much may be anticipating.

Regarding Shaeed's draft value in other leagues, which is in the WR50-55 area for the most part(I just drafted him at WR54 of a FFPC BB). I like him better in best ball, solid option in non-BB in that range as well but I don't like him as much and prefer some other WR's going in that range. It's not like he's new to the WR2 role on the Saints. He was second in snaps last year though as a team they had some flat out bizarre subsutition patterns with their WR's. I know in games he's ran more then 80% of the routes he's posted just over 12 PPR points a game and I think that's close to the range I'd put him on the notion Kubiak is going to help.

But there is just an extreme amount of WR value later this year, just depends on your flavor but there are some going in the same range as him that are making several breakout or undervalued lists. When we say so and so is going as like WR50 it sounds so cheap and discounted, but I think it speaks as much to the extreme depth at the position.
 
Bri said:
barackdhouse said:
Bri said:
One of the things I do is track % of change. My goal is usually to see who is locked in where. He's been 54-56 range since whenever I started so I've got him as a guarantee for what I do.
Now he's changed to WR20 on eight percent of drafts. It's significant since it was never fluctuating.
Click to expand...
I need links. I posted a bunch above. Where? If you're right then yes it would be significant but I just posted above a bunch of stuff showing him as WR50+. Where are you getting your info? I'm sorry to press but it doesn't add up.
Click to expand...
You are responding as if it's just you and me meanwhile others have posted similar
Click to expand...
Well I haven't seen that at all, I only just now popped in this thread when I said I thought his ADP was absurd. So far 100% of people have agreed --- WR50+. My apologies if I didn't scroll up first but I'm seeing *exactly* zero evidence of any kind of spike or of his going around WR20. MFL data is dramatically skewed between the different formats and I would say you should weigh that data set at around 80% dynasty to mmmmaybe 20% redraft and bestball at this point in the offseason. And in dynasty WR20 seems reasonablish. I respect your stuff though Bri and I will scroll up and look. ADP is clearly source dependent but I have ran MFL leagues for years and it is *not* a useable source on this unless you have parsed redraft out of MFL data. Maybe you have but I didn't think that was possible.
 
BobbyLayne said:
Dude has carved out a nice role for himself in his first 2 years, which is not easy as a UDFA. His ECR is WR61 and (too-early-to-tell) ADP is WR60 / 127th overall.

Good value atm. Could be a nice boom/bust Flex or bye week filler as your redraft WR4/WR5.
Click to expand...

barackdhouse said:
Another guy whose ADP makes zero sense whatsoever.
Click to expand...
@Bri ok I just scrolled up and read back. These are the first two comments on ADP. It was my OP for frickin sake! Come on, YOU NEED TO PROVIDE A LINK OR SOME REFERENCE there is nothing here.... everyone agrees...what am I missing?
 
TheWinz said:
Question for @barackdhouse and @Bri
For a PPR redraft league that offers nothing for punt/kick returns, where would YOU rank him? If you prefer projections vs ranks, that's fine too. I just wanted to see your thoughts vs the normal WR50'ish that he currently sits at. Thanx
Click to expand...
All this stuff has me intrigued but I'm not going too high.
Right now the Saints are some sort of darling team. Kamara is supposedly young again and going to remake one of his elite seasons. Olave is great. AT Perry will be a complete WR not just a big TD target. It's all too much for me as I can't give Derek Carr enough stats to match all this love.
Somewhere in 40-50 range but I lack confidence atm til this new heat wears off
 
barackdhouse said:
BobbyLayne said:
Dude has carved out a nice role for himself in his first 2 years, which is not easy as a UDFA. His ECR is WR61 and (too-early-to-tell) ADP is WR60 / 127th overall.

Good value atm. Could be a nice boom/bust Flex or bye week filler as your redraft WR4/WR5.
Click to expand...

barackdhouse said:
Another guy whose ADP makes zero sense whatsoever.
Click to expand...
@Bri ok I just scrolled up and read back. These are the first two comments on ADP. It was my OP for frickin sake! Come on, YOU NEED TO PROVIDE A LINK OR SOME REFERENCE there is nothing here.... everyone agrees...what am I missing?
Click to expand...
That's not true.
There's a whole lot of SFB talk even someone mentioning he's very high overall nevermind WR.
I mentioned MFL and in your next post you discredit it. You're well aware the link to their ADP.
You're focused on saying it's just me, you're discrediting anyone's link, then insisting I provide something else. It's too much man.
 
TheWinz said:
Question for @barackdhouse and @Bri
For a PPR redraft league that offers nothing for punt/kick returns, where would YOU rank him? If you prefer projections vs ranks, that's fine too. I just wanted to see your thoughts vs the normal WR50'ish that he currently sits at. Thanx
Click to expand...
I think he finishes something like WR20!! But yes his price is "normally" at WR50+. He is going in the 9th round in start 3WR redrafts. He likely is boom bust so he can win weeks but kill you the next. But again at that cost, and for example this is all from redraft and bestball tourney data, so everybody should be looking for the players that are capable of exploding week to week and/or who might be the golden ticket key player you need in week 17 or something. He is a guy nobody should feel bad about being your 4th or 5th WR by that point in a draft if you don't have to reach for him. So a WR2/3 but for WR4/5 prices. And he is a bigtime playmaker that flashed huge. Fantasy 101 is to target 2nd year WRs that flashed their first year. Again. I don't get it.

But I also agree with @menobrown that the board is deep and there are a few other names I like better. I think the WR position in particular has some stupid good deals in these mid rounds around there. I don't ever see Shaheed usurping Olave so my ceiling for him is less than that of say Romeo Doubs, who I consider to be maybe better than a coinflip favorite to win the alpha role outright in GB. Not a believer that Watson ever will but I do think Reed could be, and I wouldn't argue with anyone who likes him more. But Doubs has that 1A or solid 1 in his range where Shaheed doesn't. Curtis Samuel I would call a 2:1 favorite to be the alpha (that isn't named Kinkaid). Depending on build I would and have begrudgingly take a couple different RBs that fall there. TEs too.

I think the July 2024 FF landscape has some of the juicier values hanging out there this year than ever before. Trying to be good about not going overweight on these guys but I keep waiting for the pendulum to shift and then other values emerge. Particularly when the August/September crowd arrive in masse.
 
Bri said:
barackdhouse said:
BobbyLayne said:
Dude has carved out a nice role for himself in his first 2 years, which is not easy as a UDFA. His ECR is WR61 and (too-early-to-tell) ADP is WR60 / 127th overall.

Good value atm. Could be a nice boom/bust Flex or bye week filler as your redraft WR4/WR5.
Click to expand...

barackdhouse said:
Another guy whose ADP makes zero sense whatsoever.
Click to expand...
@Bri ok I just scrolled up and read back. These are the first two comments on ADP. It was my OP for frickin sake! Come on, YOU NEED TO PROVIDE A LINK OR SOME REFERENCE there is nothing here.... everyone agrees...what am I missing?
Click to expand...
That's not true.
There's a whole lot of SFB talk even someone mentioning he's very high overall nevermind WR.
I mentioned MFL and in your next post you discredit it. You're well aware the link to their ADP.
You're focused on saying it's just me, you're discrediting anyone's link, then insisting I provide something else. It's too much man.
Click to expand...
It is true and I'm sorry but I said repeatedly we're NOT talking about SFB when I SAID he has an ADP of WR50+. I don't get your disconnect and I apologize for fueling it but I have to move on. It feels very strongly to me that you haven't read through completely. Of COURSE he is going earlier in Scott Fish Bowl because of the return yardage nonsense. Everybody has acknowledged and understood that. Nobody except you has refuted that his ADP in non-SFB and non-MFL redraft/bestballs is WR50+.

Show me your source where his ADP is ~WR20. You have not done so.
 
@TheWinz I'm projecting him to be Brandin Cooks and I didn't realize and now that I do I don't have a problem with it.
What do you think about that?
The deep ball being such a part of their games etc
 
His route tree is too limited to ever be a WR1, but WR2 definitely in play if he can find the right situation.
 
nightmare said:
His limitation is Derek Carr. No idea what a new O.C. does with this offense.
Click to expand...
The new OC, Kubiak, is from the Shanahan tree — from what I’ve read, this indicates (1) using a fullback a lot, (2) using 3-WR sets very little —> the WR2 should be very busy.
 
Bri said:
@TheWinz I'm projecting him to be Brandin Cooks and I didn't realize and now that I do I don't have a problem with it.
What do you think about that?
The deep ball being such a part of their games etc
Click to expand...
I'm sure Rashid Shaheed would be proud to be compared to Brandin Cooks. Really fun cool fact - only 2 WR's in NFL history have 1K yards for 4 different teams. The cool part is they are Brandin Cooks & Brandon Marshall. If Cooks can top 1K with Dallas, he will hold the record by himself. As for the comparison, they are both speedsters. And they are both listed as their team's WR2. But I think the comparison stops there.

Cooks broke out big time in college, with a crazy 128/1730/16 season in only 13 games as a 20-yr old junior. He then went in the 1st round, and broke out in year 2 as a 22-yr old. He was the clear-cut top target for Drew Brees, leading the team in targets, catches, yards, and TD's.

Shaheed was a star kick/punt returner in college, but never broke out as a WR. He entered the NFL as a 24-yr old UDFA, and didn't see the field until week 6 of his rookie season. In his 2nd year, he was 3rd on the team in targets.

Things keeping me from getting too excited about Shaheed are:
- Olave will be the top WR target in New Orleans. Shaheed has no shot at overtaking him, except injury
- The TE trio of Hill, Johnson, and Moreau have returned and they sucked up 124 targets last year
- Alvin Kamara has been either 1st or 2nd in Saints targets since joining the NFL in 2017

It's not Derek Carr holding him back that I am worried about. There just doesn't seem to be enough targets left for him to be anything more than a boom/bust guy. Love for best ball though.
 
higgins said:
nightmare said:
His limitation is Derek Carr. No idea what a new O.C. does with this offense.
Click to expand...
The new OC, Kubiak, is from the Shanahan tree — from what I’ve read, this indicates (1) using a fullback a lot, (2) using 3-WR sets very little —> the WR2 should be very busy.
Click to expand...
Understand the theory behind it, but historically that's not been the case.

16 seasons as a HC or OC.

95, which happened twice, is the high the second most targeted WR has ever got in his offense.

The average is 76.56.

Shaheed got 75 in 15 games last year.

Understand a counter argument which goes along the lines of "yeah, but what about Kittle". That likely mattered, but he's got 9 years without Kittle and it was more of the same. I think the central point is an offense that relies so much on 2 WR's should in theory get more targets to the WR's who are playing, that's the part that's been off.

Also while Klint comes from a lot of the same roots as Kyle I would point out they only coached together one season and Klint might evolve. Miami and McDaniel was also near the bottom in 3 WR sets. Bobby Slowick was close to middle of the pack and McVay, who also has a lot of the same roots, evolved to a point the Rams led the league in 3 WR sets.
 
barackdhouse said:
TheWinz said:
barackdhouse said:
Fantasy 101 is to target 2nd year WRs that flashed their first year. Again. I don't get it.
Click to expand...
I'm confused. Shaheed is entering year 3. Are you saying we should've targeted him last year?
Click to expand...
Yeah had that part wrong but year 3 and year 2 are both strong breakout years. He is definitely an obvious breakout candidate.
Click to expand...
Thanx. I only play redraft, but am looking hard at him for the FBG Subscriber Contest. At his current ADP, he should be around $10-$11. Yeah, I relate almost everything to the Subscriber Contest!
 
Matt Harmon
Rashid Shaheed's profile quietly hit the site last week, right before July 4th 🎆

I've always been a fan of his game and his #ReceptionPerception data brought that to life.
- 69.4% success rate vs man
- 74.4% success rate vs. press

Like his ability to win deep and over the middle, along with skills that help him line up at all three spots. He needs to improve against zone coverage, especially when working out-breaking routes to the sideline.

Full profile:
receptionperception.com/rashid-shaheed…
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
 
early ADP for the *live* Scott Fish Bowl drafts have him as early as 4.02 and late as like 12th round. But in the slow drafts that started yesterday someone took him at 1.12 but I've been seeing him consistently going 9th to 11th like usual leagues, but with some outlier reaches. The ADP site is down at the moment but am curious as these slow drafts start getting into the mid rounds where he will settle in. But generally I think people are (correctly) more concerned with QBs, TEs and RBs than WRs in this format.
 
I am in one keeper league that counts return yardage. He was WR#21 in that league last year. Picked him up on WW when Kupp got hurt and never looked back
 
Gatorade said:
I am in one keeper league that counts return yardage. He was WR#21 in that league last year. Picked him up on WW when Kupp got hurt and never looked back
Click to expand...
What about his "race towards stardom" lessening their desire to see him injured on a return?
Are teams still doing that? Or are we back to Tim Brown and Joey Galloway days with the kickoff rules?
 
I'm drafting him for his WR2 status and anything else is a bonus. I am in the camp that says the return narrative is overblown. Michael Thomas had over 400 snaps last year and I expect Shaheed to ball out.
 
I'm tinkering with my spreadsheet and can't get him up more than WR 40 or so with 5 TDs.

19% target share- 67 catches on 108 targets. 970 yards 5 TDs.

I also have Carr at just above 4000 yards so maybe I'm too low on the overall NO offense.
 
@32BeatWriters
“Rashid Shaheed has been so consistent and effective that we're going to stop talking about him. I'm fairly certain he's won every 1-on-1 rep he's taken in camp, and won them fairly easily. At one point today I heard WRs coach Keith Williams instructing him not to take any more reps.”
Click to expand...

x.com

x.com x.com
 
Shaheed is the clear WR2.

My question is whether he's also the clear KR/PR, with the new rules about to blow open fantasy.
 
He signed a one-year, 5.2-million-dollar extension. That doesn’t sound too franchise-y to me, and I want him to do well on my dynasty squad.

But the numbers are the numbers.

Oh, it’s an ERFA (Exclusive Rights Free Agent) contract. That’s probably a good contract for an ERFA. I’m not an expert on those deals. Sounds pretty spendy to what they normally get. I don’t think you get any leverage when you’re an ERFA.

www.nbcsports.com

Saints, Rashid Shaheed agree to new deal

The Saints are keeping one of their key contributors around for at least another season.
www.nbcsports.com www.nbcsports.com


eta* sounds like they just offer league minimum per experience in ERFA situations. Maybe with some cake on top, but I doubt it. I do not know what it all means for Rashid’s future (that’s what I’m trying to say here). Because I was going to question the length or duration of it, but who knows? The Saints might be able to make the same deal next year at the club’s option. I don’t honestly know.
 
Last edited:
It’s precautionary more than anything and plus it’s early in camp and most guys with speed are dealing with some sort of hammy tightness rn
 
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