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WR Rome Odunze, CHI (1 Viewer)

I figured his value would have taken a hit. Nope. Not in the least for dynasty. Shows what I know. Perhaps my thinking wasn’t straight on this one.
It probably did to the microwaive young guys, but not us old farts who are more patient :)

I prefer my steak flash fried, as Waldman would say. The young ones avoid microwaves like the plague.

:)
I like my steak that way as well, but I think you know what I meant.

I did but I was imperfectly saying that I’m no total n00b but I still like my results quick and authoritative because that’s my personality. :)
 
I figured his value would have taken a hit. Nope. Not in the least for dynasty. Shows what I know. Perhaps my thinking wasn’t straight on this one.
It probably did to the microwaive young guys, but not us old farts who are more patient :)

I prefer my steak flash fried, as Waldman would say. The young ones avoid microwaves like the plague.

:)
I like my steak that way as well, but I think you know what I meant.

I did but I was imperfectly saying that I’m no total n00b but I still like my results quick and authoritative because that’s my personality. :)
Alrighty then
-Ace Ventura
 
I figured his value would have taken a hit. Nope. Not in the least for dynasty. Shows what I know. Perhaps my thinking wasn’t straight on this one.
It probably did to the microwaive young guys, but not us old farts who are more patient :)

I prefer my steak flash fried, as Waldman would say. The young ones avoid microwaves like the plague.

:)
I like my steak that way as well, but I think you know what I meant.

I did but I was imperfectly saying that I’m no total n00b but I still like my results quick and authoritative because that’s my personality. :)
Alrighty then
-Ace Ventura

I was still being friendly, U, just making light of myself.
 
I figured his value would have taken a hit. Nope. Not in the least for dynasty. Shows what I know. Perhaps my thinking wasn’t straight on this one.
It probably did to the microwaive young guys, but not us old farts who are more patient :)

I prefer my steak flash fried, as Waldman would say. The young ones avoid microwaves like the plague.

:)
I like my steak that way as well, but I think you know what I meant.

I did but I was imperfectly saying that I’m no total n00b but I still like my results quick and authoritative because that’s my personality. :)
Alrighty then
-Ace Ventura

I was still being friendly, U, just making light of myself.
wut?

I was making fun of myself, JohnnyU.
 
I figured his value would have taken a hit. Nope. Not in the least for dynasty. Shows what I know. Perhaps my thinking wasn’t straight on this one.

It hasn't? I haven't checked the dynasty rankings but I would assume that's he has dropped at least a tier or two in value.
 
I figured his value would have taken a hit. Nope. Not in the least for dynasty. Shows what I know. Perhaps my thinking wasn’t straight on this one.

It hasn't? I haven't checked the dynasty rankings but I would assume that's he has dropped at least a tier or two in value.

I just checked KTC. WR19 and holding steady. I'll have to look at FBG and others. I'm surprised also.
 
I figured his value would have taken a hit. Nope. Not in the least for dynasty. Shows what I know. Perhaps my thinking wasn’t straight on this one.

It hasn't? I haven't checked the dynasty rankings but I would assume that's he has dropped at least a tier or two in value.

I just checked KTC. WR19 and holding steady. I'll have to look at FBG and others. I'm surprised also.
Super limited data but it still means more to me when it's real draft data.

In 3 FFPC startups before the NFL draft he went as WR16, player 30.

In 11 FFPC startups since the draft he's WR19 and player 37.

Triflex and superflex startups not included in this data but similar results.

Very tiny drop in value, would have thought more.
 
I have high hopes for Odunze long term, but yes, there are a lot of mouths to feed in 2025. If Moore is traded at some point in the future it would look a lot better for Odunz and Burden. I don't think Moore is in good graces with management.
 
I have high hopes for Odunze long term, but yes, there are a lot of mouths to feed in 2025. If Moore is traded at some point in the future it would look a lot better for Odunz and Burden. I don't think Moore is in good graces with management.
Sure, but other than Moore none have shown much yet. We expect them to succeed and Caleb to do well, but I fully expect Rome to be the lead dog in 26.
 
I really want to believe. Please tell me everything is going to be OK. I feel fragile, so be gentle.
Everything is going to be ok. Stud in the making and not just you, Odunze too.
Yeah. There is no reason to panic. I'm willing to give the 1.02 for him, but don't have too. KTC has him at the 1.07. I'm buying everywhere at that price.
Where do you find people that care what KTC thinks?
I'm not sure I understand your point here...
 
I really want to believe. Please tell me everything is going to be OK. I feel fragile, so be gentle.
Everything is going to be ok. Stud in the making and not just you, Odunze too.
Yeah. There is no reason to panic. I'm willing to give the 1.02 for him, but don't have too. KTC has him at the 1.07. I'm buying everywhere at that price.
Where do you find people that care what KTC thinks?
I'm not sure I understand your point here...

Don't mind JohnnyU, he's having fun!! 😊
I happen to like KFC. Oh wait
 
I really want to believe. Please tell me everything is going to be OK. I feel fragile, so be gentle.
Everything is going to be ok. Stud in the making and not just you, Odunze too.
Yeah. There is no reason to panic. I'm willing to give the 1.02 for him, but don't have too. KTC has him at the 1.07. I'm buying everywhere at that price.
Really? I'd put him as 4 if you'd be drafting him alongside everyone else. He's not the new Sun God, he profiles more as the secondary option in the offense. Sure that possibly will give you some top 20 years, but Tet has top 10 Mike Evans upside imo. Also, if you're in a league with d points, Odunze moves to 5th pick because of Hunter. That doesn't even factor in a wr like Eukaba (butchered the spelling I know) who has a legitimate upsode of being the top ranked wr from this class three years down the line.

I'm biased because I just sold, but my enthusiasm for him in the offense dropped a ton after they drafted the other guy. Just a better schematic fit that Odunze, even if Odunze is more talented in a vacuum.
 
I really want to believe. Please tell me everything is going to be OK. I feel fragile, so be gentle.
Everything is going to be ok. Stud in the making and not just you, Odunze too.
Yeah. There is no reason to panic. I'm willing to give the 1.02 for him, but don't have too. KTC has him at the 1.07. I'm buying everywhere at that price.
Really? I'd put him as 4 if you'd be drafting him alongside everyone else. He's not the new Sun God, he profiles more as the secondary option in the offense. Sure that possibly will give you some top 20 years, but Tet has top 10 Mike Evans upside imo. Also, if you're in a league with d points, Odunze moves to 5th pick because of Hunter. That doesn't even factor in a wr like Eukaba (butchered the spelling I know) who has a legitimate upsode of being the top ranked wr from this class three years down the line.

I'm biased because I just sold, but my enthusiasm for him in the offense dropped a ton after they drafted the other guy. Just a better schematic fit that Odunze, even if Odunze is more talented in a vacuum.
Yes. I'd take him over all the WRs in this class. I'm not going to point out all the negatives in play style, situation, and unknowns with the rookies. I just think Odunze is more talented than all of them. In time, talent usually wins out.
 
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JJ Zacharison had a podcast where he discusses trading Odunze for the 1.9 in a rookie draft, it's an interesting listen
He makes some good points. The most concerning is that CHI drafted two pass catchers in the top 50 picks. I’m a Odunze believer, but even I can’t wrap my head around that one. The rest I can ignore based on the offense, bad QB play, and seasoned target competition.
 
JJ Zacharison had a podcast where he discusses trading Odunze for the 1.9 in a rookie draft, it's an interesting listen
He makes some good points. The most concerning is that CHI drafted two pass catchers in the top 50 picks. I’m a Odunze believer, but even I can’t wrap my head around that one. The rest I can ignore based on the offense, bad QB play, and seasoned target competition.
It will become more clear once Moore is gone in 2026.
 
JJ Zacharison had a podcast where he discusses trading Odunze for the 1.9 in a rookie draft, it's an interesting listen
He makes some good points. The most concerning is that CHI drafted two pass catchers in the top 50 picks. I’m a Odunze believer, but even I can’t wrap my head around that one. The rest I can ignore based on the offense, bad QB play, and seasoned target competition.
I think the part he really emphasized the most was that he likes the player, and really isn't supremely worried about the situation. However he was a potential good sell candidate because of his current start up ADP combined with projecting where that ADP will be next season. The majority seems to have not "dinged" his value at all after this draft. TBH, as an owner, neither have I. But I'm surprised it seems many non-owners haven't as well. So taking a realistic look at his projections for this upcoming year, even if he is featured heavily and improves on last year and balls out, his ADP is very likely to stay the exact same it is now; and that's with pretty much his ceiling/rosiest projection.

IOW, it's much more likely his ADP regresses a bit. Potentially a lot if he's taking a back seat to both DJ Moore and Burden (and maybe even Loveland). You combine this with the fact he explained he desperately needed a RB for this roster and this rookie class was RB rich; circumstances all fit together for him to sell Odunze if there was a buyer in his league willing to match the community value. I believe he said he even felt like he took a slight loss in value in the short term. He got what I believe was the 1.08, and then during the draft saw Judkins falling and was able to then move up one more spot to 1.07 and get him. He said his backup plan was to take Egbuka as more or less an arbitrage/reset the clock; where it would have made the trade minimal risk for him as the worse case scenario was basically a lateral move. He'd get a WR he felt had a similar floor and ceiling in a potentially poor situation where he has to wait it out.

Been listening to/reading JJ pretty much since he started. JJ is very much a value focused dynasty owner. While he may have favorite players, he conducts nearly all of his dynasty transactions (be it draft picks or trades) from a value accrual standpoint. It's just about the odds and the numbers. So it really had little to do with Odunze as a player, more so about his current roster composition, Odunze's current market value, and his projection on where that market value would be next year. Trading him allowed him to fill a roster need, and trusting his projections told him he had very little risk of losing total roster value, with a fairly high chance of actually increasing it. If he wanted to reroll again next year, odds are he would be able to flip Judkins for even more than Odunze.

He's a smart player, and runs into the same problems value focused owners do (I'd count myself in this style of play), which is when it's time to pivot from this to pushing for a championship. Typically this is a drastic change in philosophy and you wind up needing to make a lot of trades and moves which shed overall roster value (since so much of this value is based on projection and age) to buy those vets who may only have a year or two of high production left, but they are guaranteed points rather than "thoughts and prayers" potential future points. His more recent pod with Rich Dotson of dynasty nerds dips into this even more; talking about 'ship pushing strategies like basically you should be going into your rookie draft with few if any picks because those should have been traded for vets and guaranteed points and depth, etc.
 
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JJ Zacharison had a podcast where he discusses trading Odunze for the 1.9 in a rookie draft, it's an interesting listen
He makes some good points. The most concerning is that CHI drafted two pass catchers in the top 50 picks. I’m a Odunze believer, but even I can’t wrap my head around that one. The rest I can ignore based on the offense, bad QB play, and seasoned target competition.
It will become more clear once Moore is gone in 2026.
What if Moore balls out this year, and CHI resigns him to a long term deal? Teams do screwy stuff all the time. I could see all the skill players cancelling each other out. No true alpha receiver but a bunch of skilled players for Caleb to spread the ball around. Would be a headache trying to figure out which pass catchers to start.
 
JJ Zacharison had a podcast where he discusses trading Odunze for the 1.9 in a rookie draft, it's an interesting listen
He makes some good points. The most concerning is that CHI drafted two pass catchers in the top 50 picks. I’m a Odunze believer, but even I can’t wrap my head around that one. The rest I can ignore based on the offense, bad QB play, and seasoned target competition.
It will become more clear once Moore is gone in 2026.
What if Moore balls out this year, and CHI resigns him to a long term deal? Teams do screwy stuff all the time. I could see all the skill players cancelling each other out. No true alpha receiver but a bunch of skilled players for Caleb to spread the ball around. Would be a headache trying to figure out which pass catchers to start.
The other wildcard is Burden. I don't think he's a lock to meet expectations. Many second round WRs do not.
 
What if Moore balls out this year, and CHI resigns him to a long term deal? Teams do screwy stuff all the time. I could see all the skill players cancelling each other out. No true alpha receiver but a bunch of skilled players for Caleb to spread the ball around. Would be a headache trying to figure out which pass catchers to start.
He's already signed to a long term deal. But the first chance they can cut him in 2026.

If everyone is making this assumption, DJ Moore might be a buy.
 
Jacob Gibbs
Absolutely insane stat from @LordReebs

“Rome Odunze ran 144 routes where there wasn’t even a target on the play”
:ponder: So does this speak to Williams inability to get the ball out? Or was he basically a decoy? That seems insane!

I would assume it is sacks, designed qb runs, and throw aways.

I would say it had more to do how bad the Bears coaching staff was last year.
 
Jacob Gibbs
Absolutely insane stat from @LordReebs

“Rome Odunze ran 144 routes where there wasn’t even a target on the play”
:ponder: So does this speak to Williams inability to get the ball out? Or was he basically a decoy? That seems insane!

I would assume it is sacks, designed qb runs, and throw aways.

I would say it had more to do how bad the Bears coaching staff was last year.
I would also assume that this plays into Odunze's low yards/route run stat. I guess you could also say he wasn't getting open to collect those targets.
 
Jacob Gibbs
Absolutely insane stat from @LordReebs

“Rome Odunze ran 144 routes where there wasn’t even a target on the play”
:ponder: So does this speak to Williams inability to get the ball out? Or was he basically a decoy? That seems insane!

I would assume it is sacks, designed qb runs, and throw aways.

I would say it had more to do how bad the Bears coaching staff was last year.
That's also a lot of Caleb's game which is what will be so interesting seeing Ben Johnson work with him. Ben seems to want very structured and specific QB- Goff was perfect for it. Goff is very good at executing the play as drawn up, quickly moving through reads, making a smart decision quickly. Caleb is more improvisational. The question will be, is he too improvsational? Can he throttle down and take the easy plays as well?
 
Jacob Gibbs
Absolutely insane stat from @LordReebs

“Rome Odunze ran 144 routes where there wasn’t even a target on the play”
:ponder: So does this speak to Williams inability to get the ball out? Or was he basically a decoy? That seems insane!

I would assume it is sacks, designed qb runs, and throw aways.

I would say it had more to do how bad the Bears coaching staff was last year.
That's also a lot of Caleb's game which is what will be so interesting seeing Ben Johnson work with him. Ben seems to want very structured and specific QB- Goff was perfect for it. Goff is very good at executing the play as drawn up, quickly moving through reads, making a smart decision quickly. Caleb is more improvisational. The question will be, is he too improvsational? Can he throttle down and take the easy plays as well?
The answer is likely somewhere in the middle. Johnson will likely allow some improvisation within boundaries. That should help Caleb's decision making (hopefully).
 
Ben Devine
Chicago Bears HC Ben Johnson gushed about WR Rome Odunze. Called him his "prototypical X receiver" who has been "really impressive" this camp especially in 1-on-1 matchups. #DaBears
I'm not sure if I consider this good or bad news yet.
Saw this clip and was thinking the same. Clearly Johnson likes what he has in Rome, but target volume remains the question, particularly if he's used primarily outside and not in the slot.
 
Last year made a lot of people forget about Rome's pedigree. This guy can play. I love the value you're getting. Only question mark near term is competition of targets but I think the cream always rises to the top. I'm pounding the table here, even more so in keeper and dynasty formats.
Yeah same. I think people are highly underestimating the fact that both he and the QB were rookies.

Everybody says that the official stat keepers get it right when deciding whether a target counts as catchable or not, and I have faith that they're right... but Caleb >> Odunze throws had a *lot* of uncatchable throws and would IMHO push the envelope of just how accurate those stat keeper judgement calls were. I think lots of QBs have legitimate throw-aways that are not necessarily obvious but they put them in places that mmmmmaybe the receiver has a chance to make a top-10 all time catch but is it far enough away to be counted as uncatchable? Like if the WR gets their fingers on it but didn't *really* have a chance.

Anyway I've had too much coffee but as a Bears homer that has been watching just abso - ****ing atrocious QB play from that franchise since the Atari was still kicking it in my living room - Caleb Williams is elite at throw-aways or shows the traits to become elite at it. IMHO.

An aside about Williams - I don't watch college football so I scout these guys like crazy during dynasty rookie draft season post Super Bowl, and one of the biggest traits that I saw listed by everyone in regards to Caleb was that he had very very strong pocket presence and I forget which advanced metric it was but it was one I respected when presented... but pocket presence and the ability to evade pressure is maybe #1 or #2 on my list of the things Bears QBs have never ever ever been able to do and every single SB champion level QB I have ever watched had elite ability in this trait.

Long winded but upon seeing him in his first rookie games last year including preseason, I saw and agree with exactly what all those scouts said as well. He does have impeccable sense of the pocket and in addition his ability to escape it shows that he will likely become elite in this regard in the pros if he isn't already. I wish I could remember the specific metric but it had to do with time to throw coupled with yards per scramble or something but it was a well thought out metric. Anyway, time for a refill.
 
Talented player held back by a horribly inconsistent team. He will blow up some weeks making you think he's the next ARSB and disappear for stretches reminding you of when you drafted Calvin Ridley.
 
Jacob Gibbs
Rome Odunze in Week 1:

+ 94% snap rate (WR1)
+ 9 targets (27% share - third-highest of his career)
+ Unusually-low average depth of target (6.1 yards)

Both Odunze and DJ Moore ran roughly 1/3 of their routes from the slot.
This looks great on paper, but watching the game it appeared as though Caleb either doesn't look Odunze's way that often or he doesn't trust him. His first look always seemed to be Zaccheaus, even when Rome was wide open.
 

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