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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (1 Viewer)

ugh, not trending well for Watkins. I have AJ Green, Watkins and Micheal Floyd in one keeper league and they're all heading in the wrong direction. Common denominator? Shoddy QB play. Brandon LaFell looks better at this point. Rex Ryan is fantasy death to a WR. You just hope Buff defense lets up some points so they have to throw but even than RR is so pigheaded he sometimes runs anyways. I can't drop Sammy but he's at a crossroads....

 
Watkins is most definitely in a tough situation, regardless of how talented he is. But keep a couple things in mind, to stay positive:

1. He can break a game open on a single play at any time. That's part of what makes him special and he'll get behind defenses creeping up to stop a run-heavy attack.

2. Watkins is a killer route-runner. I don't know how the QB situation is going to shake out, but he's going to be disgustingly open a lot, just like his rookie year, and he's going to be very open on PA quite a bit as well. Will the QB target him? Will the target...be on target? I don't know.

But Watkins is still the same player everyone prematurely salivated over after his couple of big games last year, and regardless of opportunity and QB he still has that ability.

 
AngryPatriot said:
ugh, not trending well for Watkins. I have AJ Green, Watkins and Micheal Floyd in one keeper league and they're all heading in the wrong direction. Common denominator? Shoddy QB play. Brandon LaFell looks better at this point. Rex Ryan is fantasy death to a WR. You just hope Buff defense lets up some points so they have to throw but even than RR is so pigheaded he sometimes runs anyways. I can't drop Sammy but he's at a crossroads....
Watkins put up 980/6 in a rookie year he spent battling injuries and bad QB play. Things turn around fast. If the sentiment is that his value is dropping, maybe I should be buying him cheap where I can.

Off topic but how is AJ Green trending the wrong direction?

 
AngryPatriot said:
ugh, not trending well for Watkins. I have AJ Green, Watkins and Micheal Floyd in one keeper league and they're all heading in the wrong direction. Common denominator? Shoddy QB play. Brandon LaFell looks better at this point. Rex Ryan is fantasy death to a WR. You just hope Buff defense lets up some points so they have to throw but even than RR is so pigheaded he sometimes runs anyways. I can't drop Sammy but he's at a crossroads....
Seems premature to call anything a trend regarding Watkins at this point. he may get a few less targets, he may get a few more. A run heavy offense could actually benefit Watkins with opposing defenses selling out to stop the run. A guy like Watkins can make them pay quickly, and Rex Ryan obviously knows that. Run, run, run, run, run, run, pass to a wide open Watkins for the long gain/score. I'll take quality targets over a bunch of junk targets. Quality vs quantity.
 
AngryPatriot said:
ugh, not trending well for Watkins. I have AJ Green, Watkins and Micheal Floyd in one keeper league and they're all heading in the wrong direction. Common denominator? Shoddy QB play. Brandon LaFell looks better at this point. Rex Ryan is fantasy death to a WR. You just hope Buff defense lets up some points so they have to throw but even than RR is so pigheaded he sometimes runs anyways. I can't drop Sammy but he's at a crossroads....
Seems premature to call anything a trend regarding Watkins at this point. he may get a few less targets, he may get a few more. A run heavy offense could actually benefit Watkins with opposing defenses selling out to stop the run. A guy like Watkins can make them pay quickly, and Rex Ryan obviously knows that. Run, run, run, run, run, run, pass to a wide open Watkins for the long gain/score. I'll take quality targets over a bunch of junk targets. Quality vs quantity.
That seems fair. But the level of drop in targets matters too. If his targets drop 30%, that is much more concerning than if they drop 10%.I get your point about quality of targets though -- his stats last year would have been probably 200 yds and 2-3 TDs higher with any QB who can simply hit a massively wide open receiver.

 
When is the last time Rex had a WR that had Watkins' talent?

Typical rotoworld take... there's a reason they ran the ball so much on those teams...

Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith with zero weapons in the receiving game.

ETA: Now granted the Bills aren't much better off QB wise, but I think they're probably better than the Jets are/were and the talent in the receiving core is much better than he's ever had.

 
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I'd say Sanchez, for all his warts has shown more in the NFL than Matt Cassell has. Geno/EJ - both suck at this point

 
I'd say Sanchez, for all his warts has shown more in the NFL than Matt Cassell has. Geno/EJ - both suck at this point
Sanchez was a dud until Chip and his college QB friendly offense came to rescue him. I don't think the NYJ Sanchez could beat out EJ or Geno.

 
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From Twitter:

"PFF says Sammy Watkins only saw 54 catchable targets last year. He had 65 catches."

 
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From Twitter:

"PFF says Sammy Watkins only saw 54 catchable targets last year. He had 65 catches."
I'm not sure how the target metrics are kept…is it catchable vs. uncatchable? if so, isn't something uncatchable by definition something that can't be caught? I'm not sure how you catch something that can't be caught…seems like they need a new classification system…maybe... catchable, a Beckham which is something highly difficult or something along those lines where it ordinarily be caught and was and then truly uncatchable (a Dalton) (which are balls that hit the ground, fly feet overhead or in front of a wr that they have no possible way of catching it).

 
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I see your Dalton and raise you Manuel

;)
FWIW, reports are that Manuel was fantastic today. He was making reads, had efficient footwork, throwing confidently, and making some excellent deep passes. He did a lot of that Tuesday as well. Wednesday he was terrible though, along with the rest of the QBs.

 
I see your Dalton and raise you Manuel

;)
FWIW, reports are that Manuel was fantastic today. He was making reads, had efficient footwork, throwing confidently, and making some excellent deep passes. He did a lot of that Tuesday as well. Wednesday he was terrible though, along with the rest of the QBs.
How does one go from Good to Terrible to Fantastic over three days? Would that be considered 'Inconsistent' or 'Trending Up'?

 
I see your Dalton and raise you Manuel

;)
FWIW, reports are that Manuel was fantastic today. He was making reads, had efficient footwork, throwing confidently, and making some excellent deep passes. He did a lot of that Tuesday as well. Wednesday he was terrible though, along with the rest of the QBs.
How does one go from Good to Terrible to Fantastic over three days? Would that be considered 'Inconsistent' or 'Trending Up'?
I've been saying for a while that Manuel's biggest problem has been his hesitancy to throw. It's caused problems with reads, timing issues and some of his accuracy issues. When he plays confidently, trusts himself and lets the ball rip, he plays so much better.

I know people think I'm crazy, but I really do think that Marrone's coaching him caused him to be afraid to throw the ball and was responsible for a majority of his problems so far in the NFL.

 
The eye test last year told us that Watkins is something special, but uncertain QB play and Rex Ryan as his head coach means his upside from a production standpoint this season is somewhat limited, unfortunately.

 
People that don't draft him because of his QB will be kicking themselves soon. Always draft based on talent. He had some monster games last year with some really pathetic QB play. He will be just fine. I think the QB problems in Buffalo are providing a huge window to buy this guy, especially in dynasty.

 
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People that don't draft him because of his QB will be kicking themselves soon. Always draft based on talent. He had some monster games last year with some really pathetic QB play. He will be just fine. I think the QB problems in Buffalo are providing a huge window to buy this guy, especially in dynasty.
Sure, he'll have some big games but he'll also have some huge stinkers.

He'll be very erratic and better suited for best ball formats or large starting lineup formats where the stinkers can be covered up some.

I would not draft him at his current ADP in a standard, competitive league. There are better, more consistent options.

 
I believe Sammy Watkins is going to surprise a lot of people this season. I planned to use him as my WR5 this season behind Keenan Allen but what I have been hearing out of camp and from what I have seen on tape, I think I am moving him up to the four spot. I get all of the run-first talk. But they will still have to throw the ball. Sammy Watkins looks AMAZING thus far. I know it is not about Sammy as much as it is about his QBs but we only need them to be marginal. Count me as one who is not scared off.

 
I have Antonio and Edelman in a must start 3 ppr. I'm considering him as a homerun hitter in round 5. I personally love his talent over guys like Allen, Marshal, etc. and at this point the RBs are scary.

 
Watkins won't be on any of my teams this year. The Bills offense is going to be abysmal.
Well considering he went for 65 / 983 his rookie season on an even worst offense all while he struggled with rib/hip injuries, I wouldn't write him off. He was on absolute fire last practice and almost uncoverable.

The Bills much improved running game should really open up some things for Sammy IMO. They also brought in Harvin and Clay to go along with Woods to help take the pressure off Watkins.

I can see him having a very good season this year; something along the lines of 80 / 1100 / 9 TD with several of those TD's being 40+ yards.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
He had to wait like 6 seconds for that ball to finally get to him.
Would love to know who was QBing that play. I'm pulling for Tyrod to start.
It was Tyrod Taylor, you could see #5 take the snap out of shotgun before the camera moves to the left to follow Sammy

 
Sleep on him all you want. But the man is a beast.

According to ABC Buffalo, Sammy Watkins "can't be covered" in Bills camp.

Per ace beat writer Joe Buscaglia, Watkins has "lit training camp on fire with how well he’s played." Buscaglia reports Watkins has been torching every corner he's faced, and refined his route running. Watkins oozes raw ability, but has quarterback concerns, and was prone to nicks and bruises as a rookie. Watkins enters 2015 on the WR2 borderline, but with the upside for much more.
 
good, I love these fluff pieces to help inflate ADPs of players I have no intention of drafting.

Trivia questions: # of top 5 fantasy WRs with a QB situation as bad as Sammy's over the last five years??

 
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good, I love these fluff pieces to help inflate ADPs of players I have no intention of drafting.

Trivia questions: # of top 5 fantasy WRs with a QB situation as bad as Sammy's over the last five years??
nice strawman :thumbup:
It is a strawman but I'll play along.

There was this guy named Josh Gordon in 2013.
No QB situation has been this bad in the last year so all answers are null and void. :lol:

 
good, I love these fluff pieces to help inflate ADPs of players I have no intention of drafting.

Trivia questions: # of top 5 fantasy WRs with a QB situation as bad as Sammy's over the last five years??
nice strawman :thumbup:
The point is this...it's highly unlikely Watkins is a top WR this year. Draft at your own peril.

Kid is just in the wrong place at the wrong time. It's a shame.

 
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Cassel is a journeyman QB and not someone I would want lining up as my franchise guy going forward but he is at least better than Manuel. In 2010 he had a very good season which allowed Bowe to have his best ever season with 1162 receiving yards and 15 td's. There is at least a small hope for Watkins to be a WR2 this year. He won't enter that elite category that he could with a better qb situation but there could be some value there.

 
Nobody is drafting Watkins to be a WR1. He's being drafted as a WR3 with upside. I won't do it because of the aforementioned atrocious QB sich, but I don't think that expectation is at all unreasonable given the guy's immense talent.

 
Nobody is drafting Watkins to be a WR1. He's being drafted as a WR3 with upside. I won't do it because of the aforementioned atrocious QB sich, but I don't think that expectation is at all unreasonable given the guy's immense talent.
He is WR #24 (wr2) after having fallen in the past month. He was #20.

 
good, I love these fluff pieces to help inflate ADPs of players I have no intention of drafting.

Trivia questions: # of top 5 fantasy WRs with a QB situation as bad as Sammy's over the last five years??
nice strawman :thumbup:
The point is this...it's highly unlikely Watkins is a top WR this year. Draft at your own peril.

Kid is just in the wrong place at the wrong time. It's a shame.
I agree but I won't criticize anyone who drafts him high. Every once in a while there is a Steve Smith with Jake Delhomme scenario.

 
with the QB situation, the Rex factor and the fact that they have a good defense...I think he's incredibly talented but I just can't see him getting a ton of targets as the team will be looking to win every game 9-3.

 
Banger said:
with the QB situation, the Rex factor and the fact that they have a good defense...I think he's incredibly talented but I just can't see him getting a ton of targets as the team will be looking to win every game 9-3.
Would they not prefer 27-3? I'm not saying that's a realistic weekly outcome, I just don't understand why people think Buffalo doesn't want to score. I agree that they'd love to hold opponents to 3 points, but they're not going to intentionally avoid scoring on offense themselves. Do you think if Watkins catches a pass he's going to take a knee as opposed to trying to score? If Buffalo can put up points they will, and with all of those weapons on offense a QB like Cassell might be good enough to manage a strong, well balanced offensive attack. Having a dominant defense doesn't mean they can't have a good offense. If anything, it means their offense will be on the field more.
 
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Banger said:
with the QB situation, the Rex factor and the fact that they have a good defense...I think he's incredibly talented but I just can't see him getting a ton of targets as the team will be looking to win every game 9-3.
Would they not prefer 27-3? I'm not saying that's a realistic weekly outcome, I just don't understand why people think Buffalo doesn't want to score. I agree that they'd love to hold opponents to 3 points, but they're not going to intentionally avoid scoring on offense themselves. Do you think if Watkins catches a pass he's going to take a knee as opposed to trying to score? If Buffalo can put up points they will, and with all of those weapons on offense a QB like Cassell might be good enough to manage a strong, well balanced offensive attack. Having a dominant defense doesn't mean they can't have a good offense. If anything, it means their offense will be on the field more.
Rex is a defense 1st and run the ball coach. The last 3 years the Jets have been 27th, 31st and 30th in passing attempts. Last year the Bills were 13th in passing attempts. I see no reason why Rex will change his stripes having the defense he does and having added McCoy to the RB stable. Will they throw the ball, sure, will they throw it as much as last year? Highly doubtful.

Again, it's not a reflection on Watkins and his ability it's completely situation. He's probably in the worst passing situation in the entire NFL because you have a coach that historically runs much more than he throws, he doesn't have a good QB and he has a good defense to play field position/clock football which he'll look to capitalize on turnovers and kick field goals. When it's 3rd and 9 mid 2nd qtr on their 40 yard line and they are up 7-3, they aren't going to take a risk and play aggressive football to pick up the 1st...they'll throw a screen to a back hope he picks it up or gets positive yards and if not they'll happily punt it and look to hem in the other team. I just don't see any reason to indicate that he'll change his stripes...that's who he is, the football he wants to play and the way his team is built.

Completely sucks if you already own him but if you don't I wouldn't touch him.

 
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