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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (5 Viewers)

I own Sammy in my main dynasty league and feel real good about his prospects going forward. I was decimated by injuries this season and lost Keenan, Alshon, Coleman, and Sammy for stretches. My top guy was Kenny Britt. I have eight picks in the first round of next year's draft and plan to pad my condo with depth. I have learned not to make emotional decisions and understand that sometimes, #### happens. Watkins will show why he was the first receiver taken and I intend to have him rostered when he goes off. Notice I didn't say if. That's cause I'm a believer.

 
Besides the optimism that he'll get healthy in the offseason is the hope that the Bills bring in someone to run a more pass friendly offense.  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Right - which is why I (and others) relied on all the reports of what an awesome camp he was having and from quotes from Watkins declaring himself 100% and from teammates saying how awesome he looked out there.     

You mean just like he supposedly did this last offseason?
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I did too to some extent. This was a majorly disappointing season considering the built up momentum from 2015. 

It was reported in May that he broke a bone in his foot....logic says that's not a "supposedly" healthy offseason. He very well might not have a full, healthy, offseason this year if they have to go in and do a 2nd surgery (likely). I'm crossing my fingers (dynasty).

 
Rumors going around that the current OC could stay on.

Along with the GM staying on to find his 3rd HC, it makes me wonder WTF the Bills ownership is thinking. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Rumors going around that the current OC could stay on.

Along with the GM staying on to find his 3rd HC, it makes me wonder WTF the Bills ownership is thinking. 
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It's absurd if this is the truth. Clean house, bring in someone who can work with Tyrod, and develop Cardale. 

 
They also said the current OC stuck with Romans playbook because it was mid season. If he lands the head coaching job, he will no doubt install his own offense. The question is, what does his offense look like? Can't be worse than Romans or Ryan's. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Rumors going around that the current OC could stay on.

Along with the GM staying on to find his 3rd HC, it makes me wonder WTF the Bills ownership is thinking. 
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Whaley is not finding his 3rd HC. He has never picked a head coach. 

So maybe what they are thinking is that they should let him do that and hold him accountable for the result. 

The way most teams in the league operate...

 
georg013 said:
They also said the current OC stuck with Romans playbook because it was mid season. If he lands the head coaching job, he will no doubt install his own offense. The question is, what does his offense look like? Can't be worse than Romans or Ryan's. 
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I sit up top every home game. Watkins is open all the time. 

Taylor just doesn't throw him the ball. 

Whether that is a Taylor problem or a coaching problem I don't know. 

 
The Duff Man said:
I sit up top every home game. Watkins is open all the time. 

Taylor just doesn't throw him the ball. 

Whether that is a Taylor problem or a coaching problem I don't know. 
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I said the same thing earlier in this thread. I sat in my father in laws seat last weekend and they are up top. Watkins was open the whole game. I think Taylor can't go through the progressions to get to another WR. If his first read isn't open he is screwed and will look to run or check down to a RB.

 
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Gandalf said:
I said the same thing earlier in this thread. I sat in my father in laws seat last weekend and they are up top. Watkins was open the whole game. I think Taylor can't go through the progressions to get to another WR. If his first read isn't open he is screwed and will look to run or check down to a RB.
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Then his first read should be Watkins.

 
The Duff Man said:
Whaley is not finding his 3rd HC. He has never picked a head coach. 

So maybe what they are thinking is that they should let him do that and hold him accountable for the result. 

The way most teams in the league operate...
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Why wouldn't you just want to start fresh? It's very unusual for any GM to be around for a third HC hire, regardless of who has final say.

 
I don't think he can ever be what people expected for more than a handful of games at a time.   He's always mixed in a deadly combo of he is injured or the team is in Flux.   

 
Whaley probably stays because the Bills do have a pretty talented roster all things considered.   Maybe Buffalo ownership is smart enough not to fire a GM unless they know they can do better, and have some idea for doing better already in mind. 

 
georg013 said:
Second surgery coming soon. For reference, didn't Julio Jones go down a similar path with two surgeries?
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*sigh* There's part of me who just wishes he would willingly take all next season off. Give himself a straight year and a half of rest and get over this thing. Clearly this surgery, rush back before fully healed to please the team & fans, surgery, wash and repeat isn't working. Dude just needs a LONG time off. He's still super young that I wish somebody from the fromt office would just tell him to disappear for a while. "Rehab, train with our staff and your teammates, when 2018 comes around, be ready to roll. If you can't stay healthy after that, football just isn't going to work for you."

 
He's having the surgery now so should be fine by next year?  My worry was that they would continue along the avoid surgery path for too long, only to find in mini camp or preseason that he needs surgery. 

I am concerned about him trying to come back to soon to build rapport with the QB in the off-season...  Sammy us a complete beast though,  as long as he can stay healthy he should be producing. 

 
Capaccio of WGR 550 Buffalo reports the Bills have yet to decide whether to pick up Sammy Watkins' fifth-year option.
The hesitation reportedly revolves around the receiver's lengthy injury history. Watkins has played 21 games total the last two seasons and has undergone surgery on the same foot twice. With the option year guaranteed for injury, the Bills could find themselves on the hook for just over $13 million for a player who is not on the field if Watkins reinjures his foot or suffers another significant injury. That is the risk any team takes in picking up the option, however, and Buffalo is not in a position to lose a talented receiver whom they gave up two first-round picks and a fourth to land. It will be surprising if they do not pick up the option.

 
 
Source: WGR 550 Buffalo 
Apr 15 - 9:58 AM
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Dedfin said:
Will this guy ever be good?
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I've owned him since a rookie, and I often think about cutting him. He's always hurt. The QB situation is not ideal. When I drafted him, I figured Buffalo would bring in a QB to maximize his talent. Nope. The problem is Sammy flashes great moments, and I think he could easily be a 1200/8  guy if healthy.  I am holding on him but stocking up on other WRs, If he doesn't produce this year, I'm cutting him. I'm betting he gets hurts and sucks again.

 
KCBuc said:
I've owned him since a rookie, and I often think about cutting him. He's always hurt. The QB situation is not ideal. When I drafted him, I figured Buffalo would bring in a QB to maximize his talent. Nope. The problem is Sammy flashes great moments, and I think he could easily be a 1200/8  guy if healthy.  I am holding on him but stocking up on other WRs, If he doesn't produce this year, I'm cutting him. I'm betting he gets hurts and sucks again.
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He has been a 1067/7.4 guy so far (per 16 games, for the 37 games that he has played).

 
KCBuc said:
I've owned him since a rookie, and I often think about cutting him. He's always hurt. The QB situation is not ideal. When I drafted him, I figured Buffalo would bring in a QB to maximize his talent. Nope. The problem is Sammy flashes great moments, and I think he could easily be a 1200/8  guy if healthy.  I am holding on him but stocking up on other WRs, If he doesn't produce this year, I'm cutting him. I'm betting he gets hurts and sucks again.
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Or instead of cutting him you could just trade him for a player you want or draft picks to try to make your team better. 

 
My fear is if I trade him that he will stay healthy all year and put up gaudy numbers. Damned if I cut bait or damned if I don't. It just seems like when I need him to play, he pulls up gimpy. He's just frustrating to me.

 
The Buffalo News' Vic Carucci reports the Bills are "unlikely" to pick up Sammy Watkins' fifth-year option.

Reports of the Bills waffling on the decision have been circulating for a couple weeks, but it never seemed like a real choice considering Watkins' talent, how much Buffalo paid to get him, and their lack of options at receiver. Clearly, that assumption was incorrect. According to Carucci, the Bills "aren't comfortable" using the option while Watkins is still recovering from foot surgery. The deadline for a final decision is May 3. Buffalo added WR Zay Jones in the second round Friday night, but they need receiver help regardless of Watkins' health and contract situation.

 
 
Source: Buffalo News 
Apr 29 - 9:16 AM
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KCBuc said:
My fear is if I trade him that he will stay healthy all year and put up gaudy numbers. Damned if I cut bait or damned if I don't. It just seems like when I need him to play, he pulls up gimpy. He's just frustrating to me.
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HOLD. He's going to be leaving Buffalo and basic odds say he ends up on a team with a better situation for the passing game and his value shoots up.

 
I think this is bad news for Watkins in the near term.  They either don't think he's a great fit for the offense they want to run or doubt his ability to get (or stay) healthy.  I could see a scenario where he struggles with injury again this year, the dynasty community gives up on him, and he eventually builds a decent career for some other team a la Michael Crabtree.  

 
Biabreakable said:
Yikes.

I wasn't expecting that. They invested a lot in Watkins to just let him go, which it looks like they intend to do, because if they were counting on tagging him, they would just pick up the option instead right?
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They are likely counting on tagging him if he stays healthy, where the option would have guaranteed his payday had he gotten hurt. We don't know the exact numbers yet, but it's probably something like $3-$4 mil difference between the two, so the Bills are probably looking at that as the cost of insurance.

 
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I should not have forgotten about the guaranteed money. I would interpret this as the Bills think Watkins is enough of a risk to be injured in 2017 that they didn't want to exercise the option. It's not a good sign. 

 
Rotoworld take:

The Bills will decline Sammy Watkins' fifth-year team option for 2018.
Unbelievable. This is perhaps the only thing that could have made the Bills' trade up in the 2014 draft even more disastrous. The Bills are clearly petrified of Watkins suffering another injury and guaranteeing himself a massive payday for 2018 — option years are guaranteed for injury only — but they've backed themselves into a corner if Watkins has a monster 2017, something certainly not outside the realm of possibility for a massively-talented wideout who has yet to turn 24. The franchise tag costs more than the option. In a league placing an ever-increasing premium on high-end receiving talent, the Bills are playing fire with theirs. The Bills maybe shouldn't be letting someone who was a defensive coordinator just five months ago run their front office.

 
 
Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter
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oldmanhawkins said:
I think this is bad news for Watkins in the near term.  They either don't think he's a great fit for the offense they want to run or doubt his ability to get (or stay) healthy.  I could see a scenario where he struggles with injury again this year, the dynasty community gives up on him, and he eventually builds a decent career for some other team a la Michael Crabtree.  
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The guy is an absolute monster when he's healthy, and they'd be foolish to write him off or give up on him as "not fitting the offense".  The Bills front office is generally incompetent, but surely they have to know that he's by far their best offensive player when he's on the field, no?  The injury concern, however, may be a real worry.

 
This ups both his redraft and dynasty value in my eyes.  For redraft, you always want players in a contract year... for dynasty, the two complaints about Sammy have been injuries and offense... injuries are still a concern but as far as offense, either they find a way to make things work in Buff to justify a franchise tag OR he gets to move to a team that will be able to use him.  Win win to me..

 
Steve Tasker said:
The guy is an absolute monster when he's healthy, and they'd be foolish to write him off or give up on him as "not fitting the offense".  The Bills front office is generally incompetent, but surely they have to know that he's by far their best offensive player when he's on the field, no?  The injury concern, however, may be a real worry.
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The Bills do know more than us on the foot so it's worrisome but at the same time, recent history told us that last year was going to be a struggle for Sammy's foot. I hope their analysis is based on more then his struggles coming back last year. I just can't trust the Bills organization as they seem to be run by idiots. 

 
Ilov80s said:
The Bills do know more than us on the foot so it's worrisome but at the same time, recent history told us that last year was going to be a struggle for Sammy's foot. I hope their analysis is based on more then his struggles coming back last year. I just can't trust the Bills organization as they seem to be run by idiots. 
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They always make the wrong decision.  I would think Sammy is excited to get the #### out

 
5th year option is only guaranteed for injury if he's soooo injured in 2017 that he can't play in 2018. They could still cut him prior to the start of the March 2018 league year and not owe him anything unless he has a catastrophic injury late in the season. Even a late season ACL tear wouldn't necessarily keep him out of 2018 in this day and age. So I really don't understand not picking up the option unless there are some very real medical questions.

Even though they needed another WR, you pair this news up with paying a hefty price trading up for Zay Jones and you have to be wondering if where there is smoke, if there is also fire.

 
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