WR Stefon Diggs, HOU (5 Viewers)

[jm192]

2020 was exceptional with 127 catches on 166 targets. Last 3 years have been in 105 catch range on the same amount of targets. Everything has been consistent which is why I am surprised people are talking about a physical drop off. I know age 30 is always a red flag, but don’t see it here. Just like I don’t see it with Keenon Allen.

Tale of 2 halves of the season:

1st 9 games: 70 catches(7.78/game), 834 yards (92.67 yards per game), 7 TD's (0.78/game)

The next 8 games: 37 catches(4.63/game), 349 yards (43.63/game), 1 TD (0.13/game).

That fall off midway through the season is the red flag.

Wasn't that about the time they switched offensive coordinators?

Also, It was similar last season. A significant drop off after week 9. So I guess it should have been a red flag then too.

I don't understand the utilization of the "changed offensive coordinator" argument. They're not going to un-change. If the problem is the OC, it's still a problem.

"Diggs had a 2nd half drop off last season" also isn't a compelling argument that "he's fine." If anything, I think you're helping my argument.

I know you want to ignore 30, but...he's 30. People tend to slow down. It's rooted in fact. There aren't a whole lot of 30 something receivers dominating the fantasy football landscape.

At 30, he had a major 2nd half drop off. You're pointing out he did this last year also. Two years in a row he couldn't perform at an elite level for the entire season. So...why should I draft him?

Hoping he is the young Stefon Diggs for the 1st 9 games again? Maybe we think there's some shark play where I target him in drafts, hope he performs, and then trade him before the drop off if he does. But...what if he doesn't? What if my league mates aren't idiots and have their own concerns about Diggs falling off late in the season? I'd rather take someone with fewer red flags.

 

[efactor]

2020 was exceptional with 127 catches on 166 targets. Last 3 years have been in 105 catch range on the same amount of targets. Everything has been consistent which is why I am surprised people are talking about a physical drop off. I know age 30 is always a red flag, but don’t see it here. Just like I don’t see it with Keenon Allen.

Tale of 2 halves of the season:

1st 9 games: 70 catches(7.78/game), 834 yards (92.67 yards per game), 7 TD's (0.78/game)

The next 8 games: 37 catches(4.63/game), 349 yards (43.63/game), 1 TD (0.13/game).

That fall off midway through the season is the red flag.

Wasn't that about the time they switched offensive coordinators?

Also, It was similar last season. A significant drop off after week 9. So I guess it should have been a red flag then too.

I don't understand the utilization of the "changed offensive coordinator" argument. They're not going to un-change. If the problem is the OC, it's still a problem.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

"Diggs had a 2nd half drop off last season" also isn't a compelling argument that "he's fine." If anything, I think you're helping my argument.

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

I know you want to ignore 30, but...he's 30. People tend to slow down. It's rooted in fact. There aren't a whole lot of 30 something receivers dominating the fantasy football landscape.

At 30, he had a major 2nd half drop off. You're pointing out he did this last year also. Two years in a row he couldn't perform at an elite level for the entire season. So...why should I draft him?

That's ridicules. He was 29 most of this season and 28 most of last season. Just turned 30 in November. So we should worry about 28 year old WRs now? Tyreek is literally 3 months younger than Diggs, and Adams and Allen are older. They haven't show a physical drop-off at all. Adams suffering a QB drop off was his only issue this year. The issues aren't physical. Don't draft him. I don't care.

Hoping he is the young Stefon Diggs for the 1st 9 games again? Maybe we think there's some shark play where I target him in drafts, hope he performs, and then trade him before the drop off if he does. But...what if he doesn't? What if my league mates aren't idiots and have their own concerns about Diggs falling off late in the season? I'd rather take someone with fewer red flags.

Diggs will be much cheaper next year, so if he's still in Buffalo and I can grab him early to mid 3rd round, I'll grab that value all day long. Again, if you don't want him, don't take him.

 

[jm192]

2020 was exceptional with 127 catches on 166 targets. Last 3 years have been in 105 catch range on the same amount of targets. Everything has been consistent which is why I am surprised people are talking about a physical drop off. I know age 30 is always a red flag, but don’t see it here. Just like I don’t see it with Keenon Allen.

Tale of 2 halves of the season:

1st 9 games: 70 catches(7.78/game), 834 yards (92.67 yards per game), 7 TD's (0.78/game)

The next 8 games: 37 catches(4.63/game), 349 yards (43.63/game), 1 TD (0.13/game).

That fall off midway through the season is the red flag.

Wasn't that about the time they switched offensive coordinators?

Also, It was similar last season. A significant drop off after week 9. So I guess it should have been a red flag then too.

I don't understand the utilization of the "changed offensive coordinator" argument. They're not going to un-change. If the problem is the OC, it's still a problem.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

"Diggs had a 2nd half drop off last season" also isn't a compelling argument that "he's fine." If anything, I think you're helping my argument.

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

I know you want to ignore 30, but...he's 30. People tend to slow down. It's rooted in fact. There aren't a whole lot of 30 something receivers dominating the fantasy football landscape.

At 30, he had a major 2nd half drop off. You're pointing out he did this last year also. Two years in a row he couldn't perform at an elite level for the entire season. So...why should I draft him?

That's ridicules. He was 29 most of this season and 28 most of last season. Just turned 30 in November. So we should worry about 28 year old WRs now? Tyreek is literally 3 months younger than Diggs and Adams and Allen are older. They haven't show a physical drop-off at all. Adams suffered a QB drop off was his only issue this year. The issues aren't physical. Don't draft him. I don't care.

Hoping he is the young Stefon Diggs for the 1st 9 games again? Maybe we think there's some shark play where I target him in drafts, hope he performs, and then trade him before the drop off if he does. But...what if he doesn't? What if my league mates aren't idiots and have their own concerns about Diggs falling off late in the season? I'd rather take someone with fewer red flags.

Diggs will be much cheaper next year, so if he's still in Buffalo and I can grab him early to mid 3rd round, I'll grab that value all day long. Again, if you don't want him, don't take him.

They were absolutely less pass heavy. Do you think they are going change it?

The problem of the new OC isn’t going away. They went from nearly missing the playoffs to the 2 seed.

So, if your argument is “Diggs is only awful cuz his volume is way down,” why would you think the volume improves?

You can have him in the 5th for all I care.

 

[JohnnyU]

He had a crappy game, yet someone will defend him tooth and nail. As @Joe Bryant said, something seems off.

 

[efactor]

He had a crappy game, yet someone will defend him tooth and nail. As @Joe Bryant said, something seems off.

They only thing I defended was that I don't see a physical decline. Something is definitely off and they need to fix it since the contract probably means he's there next year.

The same people that criticize Diggs refuse to acknowledge that Allen hasn't thrown the intermediate and deep passes as well this year as in previous years. Of course he has thrown some excellent passes, like the bomb yesterday, but he has been really inconsistent. That needs to be fixed too.

 

[menobrown]

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

The flaw in this argument is that his drop off started before Dorsey left and when volume was still really heavy.

His last 4 games with Dorsey he had 58, 70, 86 and 34 yards and the first two of those games he had 12 targets.

After week 6 he had 4 games total of getting 11 or 12 targets and 74 yards was the best he got. So again seems more then a volume issue.

100 yards in 5 of his first 6 games and then 13 straight without one is pretty alarming. That's got more to do with scheme and volume IMO.

Hard for me to think if he's not dealing with an injury he's started tumbling down the cliff.

 

[efactor]

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

The flaw in this argument is that his drop off started before Dorsey left and when volume was still really heavy.

His last 4 games with Dorsey he had 58, 70, 86 and 34 yards and the first two of those games he had 12 targets.

After week 6 he had 4 games total of getting 11 or 12 targets and 74 yards was the best he got. So again seems more then a volume issue.

100 yards in 5 of his first 6 games and then 13 straight without one is pretty alarming. That's got more to do with scheme and volume IMO.

Hard for me to think if he's not dealing with an injury he's not started tumbling down the cliff.

It's also hard for me to think he started stumbling down a cliff midway through a season. One week you're elite and the next week you're not? Not buying it.

Maybe Allen is the one who fell off, similar to last season when he suffered the shoulder injury.

 

[JohnnyU]

He had a crappy game, yet someone will defend him tooth and nail. As @Joe Bryant said, something seems off.

They only thing I defended was that I don't see a physical decline. Something is definitely off and they need to fix it since the contract probably means he's there next year.

The same people that criticize Diggs refuse to acknowledge that Allen hasn't thrown the intermediate and deep passes as well this year as in previous years. Of course he has thrown some excellent passes, like the bomb yesterday, but he has been really inconsistent. That needs to be fixed too.

All I know is that he let a perfectly good deep pass go right between his hands against KC.

 

[pinkstapler]

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

The flaw in this argument is that his drop off started before Dorsey left and when volume was still really heavy.

His last 4 games with Dorsey he had 58, 70, 86 and 34 yards and the first two of those games he had 12 targets.

After week 6 he had 4 games total of getting 11 or 12 targets and 74 yards was the best he got. So again seems more then a volume issue.

100 yards in 5 of his first 6 games and then 13 straight without one is pretty alarming. That's got more to do with scheme and volume IMO.

Hard for me to think if he's not dealing with an injury he's not started tumbling down the cliff.

It's also hard for me to think he started stumbling down a cliff midway through a season. One week you're elite and the next week you're not? Not buying it.

Maybe Allen is the one who fell off, similar to last season when he suffered the shoulder injury.

Nothing on his tape shows that kind of fall off IMO. Looking forward to Harmon's RP on him in the offseason to put hard data with what my eyes are seeing, but so far even Harmon's anecdotally reported the same thing; his talent is still there. Want to see a player who looks like they fell off a cliff on tape, watch Kupp the last few games. He's not getting separation, he looks slow, his breaks are poor... I don't see any of that watching Diggs. Quite the opposite tbh, which is why I don't even think there's an injury, at least not a significant one.

I agree with you. It was the shift in offensive philosophy. But this is where I can agree with the Diggs detractors; I'm not sure that's going to change for him going into next season. Looking at their real world football team, they improved their play on the field and they actually started winning games more decisively when they shifted away from playing hero ball and taking 20+ yard shots to Diggs 8-10 times a game. His YPT show this change the most glaringly, definitely a tale of two halves looking at those numbers. As someone else said, I think he's still a WR1, he's just further down that group than he was before this season started.

Depending where his value falls over the summer he could range anywhere from an straight avoid to a screaming value. I'd guess he'll wind up a value as consensus tends to be overreactive and recency biased. KTC already has him at WR27 for example. Granted he'll be lower in dynasty ranks, but that's already on the low side to me. I think it drops even further over the summer when we add in new rookies and start hyping sophmore year players to take the next step. Would you really be surprised if Diggs finished top 12 next season? I wouldn't be. So yeah, taking him as what's looking like will be a low end WR3 high end WR4 value seems like a league winning proposition to me.

 

[jm192]

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

The flaw in this argument is that his drop off started before Dorsey left and when volume was still really heavy.

His last 4 games with Dorsey he had 58, 70, 86 and 34 yards and the first two of those games he had 12 targets.

After week 6 he had 4 games total of getting 11 or 12 targets and 74 yards was the best he got. So again seems more then a volume issue.

100 yards in 5 of his first 6 games and then 13 straight without one is pretty alarming. That's got more to do with scheme and volume IMO.

Hard for me to think if he's not dealing with an injury he's not started tumbling down the cliff.

It's also hard for me to think he started stumbling down a cliff midway through a season. One week you're elite and the next week you're not? Not buying it.

Maybe Allen is the one who fell off, similar to last season when he suffered the shoulder injury.

You know what, now that you meantion it:

Josh Allen only finished as QB1 in 4 point/passing TD leagues this year.

He only had 4,300 passing yards this year, which is more than last year (in spite of switching to a more run heavy offense).

His completion percentage also went up.

But yeah, I think Josh Allen probably fell off this year. Tell everyone you can. Especially if they're in my league.

 

[efactor]

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

The flaw in this argument is that his drop off started before Dorsey left and when volume was still really heavy.

His last 4 games with Dorsey he had 58, 70, 86 and 34 yards and the first two of those games he had 12 targets.

After week 6 he had 4 games total of getting 11 or 12 targets and 74 yards was the best he got. So again seems more then a volume issue.

100 yards in 5 of his first 6 games and then 13 straight without one is pretty alarming. That's got more to do with scheme and volume IMO.

Hard for me to think if he's not dealing with an injury he's not started tumbling down the cliff.

It's also hard for me to think he started stumbling down a cliff midway through a season. One week you're elite and the next week you're not? Not buying it.

Maybe Allen is the one who fell off, similar to last season when he suffered the shoulder injury.

Nothing on his tape shows that kind of fall off IMO. Looking forward to Harmon's RP on him in the offseason to put hard data with what my eyes are seeing, but so far even Harmon's anecdotally reported the same thing; his talent is still there. Want to see a player who looks like they fell off a cliff on tape, watch Kupp the last few games. He's not getting separation, he looks slow, his breaks are poor... I don't see any of that watching Diggs. Quite the opposite tbh, which is why I don't even think there's an injury, at least not a significant one.

I agree with you. It was the shift in offensive philosophy. But this is where I can agree with the Diggs detractors; I'm not sure that's going to change for him going into next season. Looking at their real world football team, they improved their play on the field and they actually started winning games more decisively when they shifted away from playing hero ball and taking 20+ yard shots to Diggs 8-10 times a game. His YPT show this change the most glaringly, definitely a tale of two halves looking at those numbers. As someone else said, I think he's still a WR1, he's just further down that group than he was before this season started.

Depending where his value falls over the summer he could range anywhere from an straight avoid to a screaming value. I'd guess he'll wind up a value as consensus tends to be overreactive and recency biased. KTC already has him at WR27 for example. Granted he'll be lower in dynasty ranks, but that's already on the low side to me. I think it drops even further over the summer when we add in new rookies and start hyping sophmore year players to take the next step. Would you really be surprised if Diggs finished top 12 next season? I wouldn't be. So yeah, taking him as what's looking like will be a low end WR3 high end WR4 value seems like a league winning proposition to me.

Agree that he will be a 3rd rounder next year in redraft. Love the value there, just like I love the Keenan Allen value every year.

Just don't think the age 30 mark is a killer for the type of WR he is. With Julio Jones, you could see it happening, even in his last good year with the Falcons. Good stats but not as explosive and getting up slowly a lot. Just don't see it with Diggs.

 

[massraider]

I see a bunch of things that by themselves, mean nothing.

Together, they mean I will not have this guy anymore.

Age, the fall off two years in a row, his happy/unhappy routine, the teams' cap and roster outlook. I sold him in dynasty this year, had him since rookie year. Love Diggs. I won't have him again.

 

[JohnnyU]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

 

[efactor]

Hardly helping your argument. They were more pass happy early in the season both seasons. Simple. Not a physical issue.

You don't think Brady called the game differently than Dorsey? Offense went to more runs and shorter passes.

The flaw in this argument is that his drop off started before Dorsey left and when volume was still really heavy.

His last 4 games with Dorsey he had 58, 70, 86 and 34 yards and the first two of those games he had 12 targets.

After week 6 he had 4 games total of getting 11 or 12 targets and 74 yards was the best he got. So again seems more then a volume issue.

100 yards in 5 of his first 6 games and then 13 straight without one is pretty alarming. That's got more to do with scheme and volume IMO.

Hard for me to think if he's not dealing with an injury he's not started tumbling down the cliff.

It's also hard for me to think he started stumbling down a cliff midway through a season. One week you're elite and the next week you're not? Not buying it.

Maybe Allen is the one who fell off, similar to last season when he suffered the shoulder injury.

You know what, now that you meantion it:

Josh Allen only finished as QB1 in 4 point/passing TD leagues this year.

He only had 4,300 passing yards this year, which is more than last year (in spite of switching to a more pass heavy offense).

His completion percentage also went up.

But yeah, I think Josh Allen probably fell off this year. Tell everyone you can. Especially if they're in my league.

Yeah, it wasn't the 15 rushing TDs that contributed to his FF numbers, 29 TDs, which is the lowest in the last 4 years. Nobody said he wasn't excellent for FF. Was talking about how he impacted Diggs.

His 4306 passing yards was a whopping 23 more than 2022 and he played 17 games this year vs 16 in 2022, so his passing yards per game was down. 92.2 QBR which is exactly his career average. His passing numbers were virtually identical to 2022 and Diggs receiving numbers were also virtually the same with the exception of about 2 yards less per reception. More short passes after the OC change. He also had 18 INTs, which was a career high which is surprising considering the shorter passes.

Diggs is fine

 

[BigJim®]

If you're going to be a diva, then you have to make that catch yesterday. Bomb, perfect throw by Allen and goes right through his mitts. That cost the team the game as much or more than then the missed FG by Bass.

Funny part was him running back upfield making a “this far off” gesture with his fingers. Apparently Allen was off by one inch.

 

[efactor]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

 

[JohnnyU]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

 

[efactor]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit him for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

 

[JohnnyU]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

 

[efactor]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

Or Allen would have bounced it 3 yards short considering how poorly he threw the ball yesterday. We will never know I guess

 

[JohnnyU]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

Or Allen would have bounced it 3 yards short considering how poorly he threw the ball yesterday. We will never know I guess

….or Allen throws a perfect deep ball that goes through his hands again

 

[jm192]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit him for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

Did you miss Diggs drop? Not so sure he was gonna catch anything clutch.

You seem to have made your opinion and then went to look for facts. You haven’t really supported your arguments with anything of substance. You just don’t believe it.

 

[efactor]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

Or Allen would have bounced it 3 yards short considering how poorly he threw the ball yesterday. We will never know I guess

….or Allen throws a perfect deep ball that goes through his hands again

Or Allen misses a wide open receiver in the end zone to win the game or averages 7 yards a completion in a must win playoff game

 

[JohnnyU]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

Or Allen would have bounced it 3 yards short considering how poorly he threw the ball yesterday. We will never know I guess

….or Allen throws a perfect deep ball that goes through his hands again

Or Allen misses a wide open receiver in the end zone to win the game or averages 7 yards a completion in a must win playoff game

Stop with some dignity

 

[efactor]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit him for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

Did you miss Diggs drop? Not so sure he was gonna catch anything clutch.

You seem to have made your opinion and then went to look for facts. You haven’t really supported your arguments with anything of substance. You just don’t believe it.

LOL

Yeah, Diggs has another 110 catch season and he's no good. Solid facts on your side.

 

[efactor]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

Or Allen would have bounced it 3 yards short considering how poorly he threw the ball yesterday. We will never know I guess

….or Allen throws a perfect deep ball that goes through his hands again

Or Allen misses a wide open receiver in the end zone to win the game or averages 7 yards a completion in a must win playoff game

Stop with some dignity

You first

 

[JohnnyU]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

Or Allen would have bounced it 3 yards short considering how poorly he threw the ball yesterday. We will never know I guess

….or Allen throws a perfect deep ball that goes through his hands again

Or Allen misses a wide open receiver in the end zone to win the game or averages 7 yards a completion in a must win playoff game

Stop with some dignity

You first

No, I thought of it first

 

[efactor]

I thought you had to be real good in order to be a diva wr?

Well, Diggs is an exceptional receiver, but no, you don't have to be good to be a diva. Look at guys like OBJ who celebrate after every 8 yard catch.

5 of the last 6 years with over 100 catches and one with almost 130. Pretty elite territory.

He didn’t look the part last night

Maybe if their QB had hit hit for the easy first down on the last drive, he could have been the hero and scored the winning TD

….or maybe not given how badly Diggs was playing.

Or Allen would have bounced it 3 yards short considering how poorly he threw the ball yesterday. We will never know I guess

….or Allen throws a perfect deep ball that goes through his hands again

Or Allen misses a wide open receiver in the end zone to win the game or averages 7 yards a completion in a must win playoff game

Stop with some dignity

You first

No, I thought of it first

Solid point

 

[ghostguy123]

I didn't watch the entire game, but from what I saw, Diggs really hurt them. He had chances at big plays and missed those opportunities.

 

[The Duff Man]

I saw this tweet.

Last 10 games
Shakir 462 yard on 37 targets
Diggs 422 yards on 80 targets

You can make an argument that targeting him was hurting the Bills offence. They targeted him on the first two throws last night with little result.

 

[Young 8]

I saw this tweet.

Last 10 games
Shakir 462 yard on 37 targets
Diggs 422 yards on 80 targets

You can make an argument that targeting him was hurting the Bills offence. They targeted him on the first two throws last night with little result.

Since Joe Brady took over, 9 games

Diggs 75 targets, 44 rec, 388 yds, 1 TD, 66.7 PPF Grade, 1.30 Y/RR (career 2.07), 65.9 rating when targeted

Kincaid 51 targets, 36 rec, 387 yds, 1 TD, 68.2 PFF Grade, 1.56 Y/RR, 82.7 rating

Shakir 35 targets, 30 rec, 438 yds, 3 TD 73.6 PFF Grade, 1.70 Y/RR, 147.3 rating

 

[rockaction]

It must be the coordinator and not the thirty year-old receiver whose numbers have now precipitously dropped the past two years as the season wore on?

Not buying it.

Like we don't factor in the season's grind on the body anymore where healing becomes part of the issue and bodies don't do that as well when they're thirty as they do at twenty-two?

 

[menobrown]

It must be the coordinator and not the thirty year-old receiver whose numbers have now precipitously dropped the past two years as the season wore on?

Not buying it.

A lot of holes in that argument but the biggest one is Diggs started to decline the 4 previous games before Brady took over.

If anything Brady seemed to have given Diggs a temporary boost before he probably realized the same thing Dorsey did which was that Diggs may be the best WR on the team but he was also the least efficient and the offense would be better served getting other some other players more involved.

 

[Biabreakable]

2020 was exceptional with 127 catches on 166 targets. Last 3 years have been in 105 catch range on the same amount of targets. Everything has been consistent which is why I am surprised people are talking about a physical drop off. I know age 30 is always a red flag, but don’t see it here. Just like I don’t see it with Keenon Allen.

Tale of 2 halves of the season:

1st 9 games: 70 catches(7.78/game), 834 yards (92.67 yards per game), 7 TD's (0.78/game)

The next 8 games: 37 catches(4.63/game), 349 yards (43.63/game), 1 TD (0.13/game).

That fall off midway through the season is the red flag.

Wasn't that about the time they switched offensive coordinators?

Also, It was similar last season. A significant drop off after week 9. So I guess it should have been a red flag then too.

I don't understand the utilization of the "changed offensive coordinator" argument. They're not going to un-change. If the problem is the OC, it's still a problem.

"Diggs had a 2nd half drop off last season" also isn't a compelling argument that "he's fine." If anything, I think you're helping my argument.

I know you want to ignore 30, but...he's 30. People tend to slow down. It's rooted in fact. There aren't a whole lot of 30 something receivers dominating the fantasy football landscape.

At 30, he had a major 2nd half drop off. You're pointing out he did this last year also. Two years in a row he couldn't perform at an elite level for the entire season. So...why should I draft him?

Hoping he is the young Stefon Diggs for the 1st 9 games again? Maybe we think there's some shark play where I target him in drafts, hope he performs, and then trade him before the drop off if he does. But...what if he doesn't? What if my league mates aren't idiots and have their own concerns about Diggs falling off late in the season? I'd rather take someone with fewer red flags.

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

Keenan Allen just completed his age 31 season and did very well. Allen's peak season was at 25 years old but his age 31 season was close to that.

What are your examples of age 30 mattering for WR?

For RB it's a different story.

 

[Ilov80s]

2020 was exceptional with 127 catches on 166 targets. Last 3 years have been in 105 catch range on the same amount of targets. Everything has been consistent which is why I am surprised people are talking about a physical drop off. I know age 30 is always a red flag, but don’t see it here. Just like I don’t see it with Keenon Allen.

Tale of 2 halves of the season:

1st 9 games: 70 catches(7.78/game), 834 yards (92.67 yards per game), 7 TD's (0.78/game)

The next 8 games: 37 catches(4.63/game), 349 yards (43.63/game), 1 TD (0.13/game).

That fall off midway through the season is the red flag.

Wasn't that about the time they switched offensive coordinators?

Also, It was similar last season. A significant drop off after week 9. So I guess it should have been a red flag then too.

I don't understand the utilization of the "changed offensive coordinator" argument. They're not going to un-change. If the problem is the OC, it's still a problem.

"Diggs had a 2nd half drop off last season" also isn't a compelling argument that "he's fine." If anything, I think you're helping my argument.

I know you want to ignore 30, but...he's 30. People tend to slow down. It's rooted in fact. There aren't a whole lot of 30 something receivers dominating the fantasy football landscape.

At 30, he had a major 2nd half drop off. You're pointing out he did this last year also. Two years in a row he couldn't perform at an elite level for the entire season. So...why should I draft him?

Hoping he is the young Stefon Diggs for the 1st 9 games again? Maybe we think there's some shark play where I target him in drafts, hope he performs, and then trade him before the drop off if he does. But...what if he doesn't? What if my league mates aren't idiots and have their own concerns about Diggs falling off late in the season? I'd rather take someone with fewer red flags.

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

Keenan Allen just completed his age 31 season and did very well. Allen's peak season was at 25 years old but his age 31 season was close to that.

What are your examples of age 30 mattering for WR?

For RB it's a different story.

Sure but if we are looking at an individual player showing signs of decline, we should give that more credence than a general average. Now we might analyze it and determine it wasn't the WR but the new OC. I personally will be dropping Diggs quite a bit in my rankings for next year.

 

[FairWarning]

For the people who think there is value here, he fell off as the season wore on in 2022 and 2021 also. I would rather pick up a WW player over a underperforming name.

 

[zamboni]

It must be the coordinator and not the thirty year-old receiver whose numbers have now precipitously dropped the past two years as the season wore on?

Not buying it.

Like we don't factor in the season's grind on the body anymore where healing becomes part of the issue and bodies don't do that as well when they're thirty as they do at twenty-two?

Agreed. Plus that's only the physical side of it. The mental aspect (desire) is also something that needs to be considered here.

 

[FairWarning]

For the people who think there is value here, he fell off as the season wore on in 2022 and 2021 also. I would rather pick up a WW player over an underperforming name.

To back it up, he hasn’t had a 100-yard game after week 10 in the last three years, outside of a week 18 occurrence.

 

[Biabreakable]

2020 was exceptional with 127 catches on 166 targets. Last 3 years have been in 105 catch range on the same amount of targets. Everything has been consistent which is why I am surprised people are talking about a physical drop off. I know age 30 is always a red flag, but don’t see it here. Just like I don’t see it with Keenon Allen.

Tale of 2 halves of the season:

1st 9 games: 70 catches(7.78/game), 834 yards (92.67 yards per game), 7 TD's (0.78/game)

The next 8 games: 37 catches(4.63/game), 349 yards (43.63/game), 1 TD (0.13/game).

That fall off midway through the season is the red flag.

Wasn't that about the time they switched offensive coordinators?

Also, It was similar last season. A significant drop off after week 9. So I guess it should have been a red flag then too.

I don't understand the utilization of the "changed offensive coordinator" argument. They're not going to un-change. If the problem is the OC, it's still a problem.

"Diggs had a 2nd half drop off last season" also isn't a compelling argument that "he's fine." If anything, I think you're helping my argument.

I know you want to ignore 30, but...he's 30. People tend to slow down. It's rooted in fact. There aren't a whole lot of 30 something receivers dominating the fantasy football landscape.

At 30, he had a major 2nd half drop off. You're pointing out he did this last year also. Two years in a row he couldn't perform at an elite level for the entire season. So...why should I draft him?

Hoping he is the young Stefon Diggs for the 1st 9 games again? Maybe we think there's some shark play where I target him in drafts, hope he performs, and then trade him before the drop off if he does. But...what if he doesn't? What if my league mates aren't idiots and have their own concerns about Diggs falling off late in the season? I'd rather take someone with fewer red flags.

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

Keenan Allen just completed his age 31 season and did very well. Allen's peak season was at 25 years old but his age 31 season was close to that.

What are your examples of age 30 mattering for WR?

For RB it's a different story.

Sure but if we are looking at an individual player showing signs of decline, we should give that more credence than a general average. Now we might analyze it and determine it wasn't the WR but the new OC. I personally will be dropping Diggs quite a bit in my rankings for next year.

Of course you want to look at each player specifically as each one is unique.

I am just saying that age 30 is not a reason to downgrade Diggs

 

[menobrown]

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

I have and I think it's changed from the historical marker it used to be where I used to think 33 was the drop off point.

Always an exception or two and I'm sure everyone will mention Keenan Allen and Evans who were 30 and 31, I'd personally not even bring up Davante as someone who has not lost a little as I don't think it was ALL on the QB. And those players win a little differently then Diggs, all bigger more physical which can be an assist when you start losing a little speed and quickness.

And even using those 3 you got two who played at 30 last year and one at 31. Just not seeing a whole lot of fantasy production last few years past that for WR's. Thielen was working on it before petering out but was in serious decline the previous few years and I don't think anyone who saw him play this year saw a player who was what he used to be, just one getting heavily leaned on because they had nothing else.

 

[efactor]

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

I have and I think it's changed from the historical marker it used to be where I used to think 33 was the drop off point.

Always an exception or two and I'm sure everyone will mention Keenan Allen and Evans who were 30 and 31, I'd personally not even bring up Davante as someone who has not lost a little as I don't think it was ALL on the QB. And those players win a little differently then Diggs, all bigger more physical which can be an assist when you start losing a little speed and quickness.

And even using those 3 you got two who played at 30 last year and one at 31. Just not seeing a whole lot of fantasy production last few years past that for WR's. Thielen was working on it before petering out but was in serious decline the previous few years and I don't think anyone who saw him play this year saw a player who was what he used to be, just one getting heavily leaned on because they had nothing else.

Devonte Adams looked as good as ever. Going from Rodgers to a competent QB in Carr who peppered him with targets showed no drop off in production. It was all the QB last year as far as drop off in production. Jimmy G and then a 4th round rookie, plus an offense that in week 16 had zero passing yards in the last 3 quarters.

Watch him in week 17 when they actually threw him the ball. He was unstoppable even with the rookie throwing him the ball.

 

[menobrown]

Was reading some articles from Bills beat writers last night and they were harder on Diggs then people in this forum. Lots of talk about WR being a bigger need, his decline not only this year but his penchant for no showing in elimination playoff game, how feasible would it be to cut or trade him,etc,etc.....

The one comment that really got me was this one from a Bills beat writer with The Athletic:He caught none of his three targets on the Bills’ final drive of the game, including the deep pass. So it’s no wonder Allen targeted Shakir in the end zone rather than Diggs on an open crossing route two plays before Tyler Bass missed the potential game-tying field goal. After all, Allen threw as many incomplete passes to Diggs on Sunday as he had thrown to Shakir in the last eight weeks combined.

 

[menobrown]

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

I have and I think it's changed from the historical marker it used to be where I used to think 33 was the drop off point.

Always an exception or two and I'm sure everyone will mention Keenan Allen and Evans who were 30 and 31, I'd personally not even bring up Davante as someone who has not lost a little as I don't think it was ALL on the QB. And those players win a little differently then Diggs, all bigger more physical which can be an assist when you start losing a little speed and quickness.

And even using those 3 you got two who played at 30 last year and one at 31. Just not seeing a whole lot of fantasy production last few years past that for WR's. Thielen was working on it before petering out but was in serious decline the previous few years and I don't think anyone who saw him play this year saw a player who was what he used to be, just one getting heavily leaned on because they had nothing else.

Devonte Adams looked as good as ever. Going from Rodgers to a competent QB in Carr who peppered him with targets showed no drop off in production. It was all the QB last year as far as drop off in production. Jimmy G and then a 4th round rookie, plus an offense that in week 16 had zero passing yards in the last 3 quarters.

Watch him in week 17 when they actually threw him the ball. He was unstoppable even with the rookie throwing him the ball.

What on earth? He had 175 targets last year.

He was 29 with Carr.

If you think he looked as good as ever you were watching someone else play. They tried all year to feed him the ball and he was usually covered up like a glove and this is reflected in his separation stats. Only someone who did not really watch would put it all on the QB. He's still good, he's not what he was.

 

[efactor]

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

I have and I think it's changed from the historical marker it used to be where I used to think 33 was the drop off point.

Always an exception or two and I'm sure everyone will mention Keenan Allen and Evans who were 30 and 31, I'd personally not even bring up Davante as someone who has not lost a little as I don't think it was ALL on the QB. And those players win a little differently then Diggs, all bigger more physical which can be an assist when you start losing a little speed and quickness.

And even using those 3 you got two who played at 30 last year and one at 31. Just not seeing a whole lot of fantasy production last few years past that for WR's. Thielen was working on it before petering out but was in serious decline the previous few years and I don't think anyone who saw him play this year saw a player who was what he used to be, just one getting heavily leaned on because they had nothing else.

Devonte Adams looked as good as ever. Going from Rodgers to a competent QB in Carr who peppered him with targets showed no drop off in production. It was all the QB last year as far as drop off in production. Jimmy G and then a 4th round rookie, plus an offense that in week 16 had zero passing yards in the last 3 quarters.

Watch him in week 17 when they actually threw him the ball. He was unstoppable even with the rookie throwing him the ball.

What on earth? He had 175 targets last year.

He was 29 with Carr.

If you think he looked as good as ever you were watching someone else play. They tried all year to feed him the ball and he was usually covered up like a glove and this is reflected in his separation stats. Only someone who did not really watch would put it all on the QB. He's still good, he's not what he was.

I would say you didn’t actually watch. Did you not see him wide open deep and Jimmy couldn’t get him the ball?

You are way overestimating decline at age 30 for WRs.

 

[menobrown]

I would say you didn’t actually watch. Did you not see him wide open deep and Jimmy couldn’t get him the ball?

OMG, you are talking about one play. You are not doing yourself any favors in this thread, might as well go back to blaming Allen for Diggs decline.

 

[zamboni]

The one comment that really got me was this one from a Bills beat writer with The Athletic:He caught none of his three targets on the Bills’ final drive of the game, including the deep pass. So it’s no wonder Allen targeted Shakir in the end zone rather than Diggs on an open crossing route two plays before Tyler Bass missed the potential game-tying field goal. After all, Allen threw as many incomplete passes to Diggs on Sunday as he had thrown to Shakir in the last eight weeks combined.

Goes back to my point about perhaps desire being as much - if not more - of a factor than age. Even if he’s slowed down a bit from wear and tear, he’s still got the ability to get open. He just may not be as focused in and out of his routes and thus not separating as much. And when Josh tries to get him the ball, the window may be tighter.

Just spitballing here though, as I have be watched a lot of film nor am I very good at analyzing it.

 

[Biabreakable]

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

I have and I think it's changed from the historical marker it used to be where I used to think 33 was the drop off point.

Always an exception or two and I'm sure everyone will mention Keenan Allen and Evans who were 30 and 31, I'd personally not even bring up Davante as someone who has not lost a little as I don't think it was ALL on the QB. And those players win a little differently then Diggs, all bigger more physical which can be an assist when you start losing a little speed and quickness.

And even using those 3 you got two who played at 30 last year and one at 31. Just not seeing a whole lot of fantasy production last few years past that for WR's. Thielen was working on it before petering out but was in serious decline the previous few years and I don't think anyone who saw him play this year saw a player who was what he used to be, just one getting heavily leaned on because they had nothing else.

Alright. I am open to the fact that things can change.

While I don't think 5 seasons is enough of a sample size compared to 30, if you see a downward trend with WR age 30 over the last 5 seasons I would be interested in seeing that. I haven't updated any of these studies for about that long.

 

[efactor]

I would say you didn’t actually watch. Did you not see him wide open deep and Jimmy couldn’t get him the ball?

OMG, you are talking about one play. You are not doing yourself any favors in this thread, might as well go back to blaming Allen for Diggs decline.

More than one play. Are you seriously saying QB play had little to do with the numbers decline?

Even young star WRs like Chase suffer when their star QB is replaced by a back up. Chase still got targets, but the quality of the target dropped.

If you read the whole thread, blaming Allen was hyperbole when the one drop kept getting brought up to point to Diggs decline. But I do think Allen’s shoulder is impacting him.

Just don’t see physical decline at age 30.

 

[menobrown]

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

I have and I think it's changed from the historical marker it used to be where I used to think 33 was the drop off point.

Always an exception or two and I'm sure everyone will mention Keenan Allen and Evans who were 30 and 31, I'd personally not even bring up Davante as someone who has not lost a little as I don't think it was ALL on the QB. And those players win a little differently then Diggs, all bigger more physical which can be an assist when you start losing a little speed and quickness.

And even using those 3 you got two who played at 30 last year and one at 31. Just not seeing a whole lot of fantasy production last few years past that for WR's. Thielen was working on it before petering out but was in serious decline the previous few years and I don't think anyone who saw him play this year saw a player who was what he used to be, just one getting heavily leaned on because they had nothing else.

Alright. I am open to the fact that things can change.

While I don't think 5 seasons is enough of a sample size compared to 30, if you see a downward trend with WR age 30 over the last 5 seasons I would be interested in seeing that. I haven't updated any of these studies for about that long.

I have seen that trend and did not even realize until the Davante Adams trade that WR's at age 30 or older have not been as productive over the last few years until I saw a tweet from Daniel Jeremiah about it after the Adams trade and that got me looking at it. I don't have spreadsheets for you if that's what you are asking and the loss of the historical data dominator on this site makes it a lot harder to show my work.

If we go back over 5 years we used to see guys like TO, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Fitz, have big seasons at 32, some started to peter out at 33 with a few more going strong. Some in this era, like Brandon Marshall, platueing a little sooner which for him I'd say was his age 31 season and then massive decline.

Now over the last few years you got Julio's last good season when he was 30, same for AJG who only played half a season that year, go back a few more years and DT(RIP) was showing serious decline possibly before his age 30 season. For various reasons I won't include AB and think if his head was right he had one of the best shots of bucking the trend.


What's the last 32+ year old WR you saw a have a big year? Only decent or fantasy relevant years I can recall over the last 5 years for WR's in this age group would be Edelman and Thielen last year. Very different archtypes.

 

[menobrown]

More than one play. Are you seriously saying QB play had little to do with the numbers decline?

Read what I wrote again.