WR Stefon Diggs, HOU (4 Viewers)

[menobrown]

The one comment that really got me was this one from a Bills beat writer with The Athletic:He caught none of his three targets on the Bills’ final drive of the game, including the deep pass. So it’s no wonder Allen targeted Shakir in the end zone rather than Diggs on an open crossing route two plays before Tyler Bass missed the potential game-tying field goal. After all, Allen threw as many incomplete passes to Diggs on Sunday as he had thrown to Shakir in the last eight weeks combined.

Goes back to my point about perhaps desire being as much - if not more - of a factor than age. Even if he’s slowed down a bit from wear and tear, he’s still got the ability to get open. He just may not be as focused in and out of his routes and thus not separating as much. And when Josh tries to get him the ball, the window may be tighter.

Just spitballing here though, as I have be watched a lot of film nor am I very good at analyzing it.

To me when you ar saying he's slowed down due to wear and tear that is age relevant. Not saying he's done or the other WR's in the age 30-31 group are done, saying a good chance most of them have entered a declining phase and there is real risk of a total cliff drop off.

I can't speak to his focus.

I don't even own the guy any longer so not sure why I'm so deep into this thread but he's not someone I'm trying to buy. I drafted a lot of Keenan Allen this year but in the late third/4th round range and if Diggs starts going in that range I'll buy some as well. Saw some convo yesterday about Diggs now being a third round pick but early results don't suggest that. We've had 7 FFPC BB drafts go off in last week and he's gone 2.2(2), 2.4(2), 2.5, 3.2 and 3.4 for an ADP of 2.6. I'm going to need a lot bigger drop.

My big thing is I'm always going to use age as an extra layer of risk. This is even if, unlike Diggs, I saw zero actual decline. I referenced those FFPC drafts and I was OTC in one of them mulling Tyreek or Lamb. Tyreek obviously showed zero decline last year, if you want to say it manifested itself in his health I guess but I'm going with zero decline. But my deciding factor was going with Lamb because if it's close to equal that's an extra layer of risk I don't want to take.

I'd guess most people feel the same way, what is different for me is I'm getting more nervous about age at 30 then most(for WR's).

 

[Da Franchise]

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

I have and I think it's changed from the historical marker it used to be where I used to think 33 was the drop off point.

Always an exception or two and I'm sure everyone will mention Keenan Allen and Evans who were 30 and 31, I'd personally not even bring up Davante as someone who has not lost a little as I don't think it was ALL on the QB. And those players win a little differently then Diggs, all bigger more physical which can be an assist when you start losing a little speed and quickness.

And even using those 3 you got two who played at 30 last year and one at 31. Just not seeing a whole lot of fantasy production last few years past that for WR's. Thielen was working on it before petering out but was in serious decline the previous few years and I don't think anyone who saw him play this year saw a player who was what he used to be, just one getting heavily leaned on because they had nothing else.

Alright. I am open to the fact that things can change.

While I don't think 5 seasons is enough of a sample size compared to 30, if you see a downward trend with WR age 30 over the last 5 seasons I would be interested in seeing that. I haven't updated any of these studies for about that long.

I have seen that trend and did not even realize until the Davante Adams trade that WR's at age 30 or older have not been as productive over the last few years until I saw a tweet from Daniel Jeremiah about it after the Adams trade and that got me looking at it. I don't have spreadsheets for you if that's what you are asking and the loss of the historical data dominator on this site makes it a lot harder to show my work.

If we go back over 5 years we used to see guys like TO, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Fitz, have big seasons at 32, some started to peter out at 33 with a few more going strong. Some in this era, like Brandon Marshall, platueing a little sooner which for him I'd say was his age 31 season and then massive decline.

Now over the last few years you got Julio's last good season when he was 30, same for AJG who only played half a season that year, go back a few more years and DT(RIP) was showing serious decline possibly before his age 30 season. For various reasons I won't include AB and think if his head was right he had one of the best shots of bucking the trend.


What's the last 32+ year old WR you saw a have a big year? Only decent or fantasy relevant years I can recall over the last 5 years for WR's in this age group would be Edelman and Thielen last year. Very different archtypes.

Agree with your assessment and I think what we’re seeing is everyone is getting so much more athletic and well conditioned with nutrition and advanced training techniques the margins in performance are shrinking. So when you are no longer at peak ability the effects hit quicker in the premium spots. My hunch is that hits slot play differently and that’s why guys like Thielan (61.4% slot) and Allen (55.5% slot) are hanging on.

This is a Tyreek Hill post.

 

[ghostguy123]

2020 was exceptional with 127 catches on 166 targets. Last 3 years have been in 105 catch range on the same amount of targets. Everything has been consistent which is why I am surprised people are talking about a physical drop off. I know age 30 is always a red flag, but don’t see it here. Just like I don’t see it with Keenon Allen.

Tale of 2 halves of the season:

1st 9 games: 70 catches(7.78/game), 834 yards (92.67 yards per game), 7 TD's (0.78/game)

The next 8 games: 37 catches(4.63/game), 349 yards (43.63/game), 1 TD (0.13/game).

That fall off midway through the season is the red flag.

Wasn't that about the time they switched offensive coordinators?

Also, It was similar last season. A significant drop off after week 9. So I guess it should have been a red flag then too.

I don't understand the utilization of the "changed offensive coordinator" argument. They're not going to un-change. If the problem is the OC, it's still a problem.

"Diggs had a 2nd half drop off last season" also isn't a compelling argument that "he's fine." If anything, I think you're helping my argument.

I know you want to ignore 30, but...he's 30. People tend to slow down. It's rooted in fact. There aren't a whole lot of 30 something receivers dominating the fantasy football landscape.

At 30, he had a major 2nd half drop off. You're pointing out he did this last year also. Two years in a row he couldn't perform at an elite level for the entire season. So...why should I draft him?

Hoping he is the young Stefon Diggs for the 1st 9 games again? Maybe we think there's some shark play where I target him in drafts, hope he performs, and then trade him before the drop off if he does. But...what if he doesn't? What if my league mates aren't idiots and have their own concerns about Diggs falling off late in the season? I'd rather take someone with fewer red flags.

I haven't noticed any production drop off at the WR position at age 30.

Historically there is a plateau from age 29-32 and then a drop off.

Keenan Allen just completed his age 31 season and did very well. Allen's peak season was at 25 years old but his age 31 season was close to that.

What are your examples of age 30 mattering for WR?

For RB it's a different story.

Sure but if we are looking at an individual player showing signs of decline, we should give that more credence than a general average. Now we might analyze it and determine it wasn't the WR but the new OC. I personally will be dropping Diggs quite a bit in my rankings for next year.

Of course you want to look at each player specifically as each one is unique.

I am just saying that age 30 is not a reason to downgrade Diggs

Age 30 plus how he looks.....,.he's dropping, and should

 

[JohnnyU]

Not sure what he will be going forward, but he sure was butter fingers against the chiefs. I suppose that is better than being a butter face

 

[Faust]

Bills GM Brandon Beane not wavering on Stefon Diggs as 'No. 1 receiver' following down year

 

[JohnnyU]

Bills GM Brandon Beane not wavering on Stefon Diggs as 'No. 1 receiver' following down year

My wife still says I’m a No. 1 husband, but I know she is lying. She is living on name recognition.

 

[pinkstapler]

The 2023 season isn't even officially over yet, and already this is a thread I can't wait for next season to start on lol.

PS. I miss Daboll.

PPS. As much as I don't buy the hype, I hope Shakir is real. Or that they draft another weapon. Because though they found some late season success with the OC scheme change, it was mostly on the ground. They need another consistent receiving option on this team.

 

[The Duff Man]

After his brother tweeted about getting him out of Buffalo, following the Denver loss, he wasn’t right again.

There was a press conference where Diggs said (paraphrasing) “what does it matter if I want to be here or not? I show up every day and put in the work”

He was a super focussed intense player. It bothered him greatly when they lost.

My speculation is that he reached a point where he decided that the extra effort wasn’t worth it.

It wasn’t getting them over the hump.
He was getting paid either way.
He was married to the Bills, he couldn’t leave and they can’t trade him.

Time to mentally check out a bit.

 

[The Duff Man]

The press interview I am referencing

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I feel kinda bad. A friend had an offer of a 1st and a 2nd (from the eventual LCG loser, so 1.15, 2.15) and I advised him it wasn’t enough.

Kinda feeling like a good offer at this point unless he ends up in KC or maybe DAL. Or lights it up wherever the ends up.

But yeah, my bad.

 

[-jb-]

Finalizing trade to HOU. Holy crap. Internet broken.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Was just going to signal @Faust to stand by for a new team name here
This will be Diggs 3rd NFL team

 

[Hu-Tang Clan]

 

[Loipz]

W o w

 

[farfromforgotten]

Bills receive a 2025 2nd and Texans also receive 2024 5th and 6th rd picks is what I see.

 

[BigJim®]

Finalizing trade to HOU. Holy crap. Internet broken.

Is there a source? Not seeing on ESPN/PFT.

 

[farfromforgotten]

Finalizing trade to HOU. Holy crap. Internet broken.

Is there a source? Not seeing on ESPN/PFT.

I read about it on the Athletic.

 

[-jb-]

Finalizing trade to HOU. Holy crap. Internet broken.

Is there a source? Not seeing on ESPN/PFT.

https://x.com/adamschefter/status/1775537949104394657?s=46&t=PwkFp_Wr3E6KJ4WHS2NUsw

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Bills receive a 2025 2nd and Texans also receive 2024 5th and 6th rd picks is what I see.

They ate a ton of money too. They wanted him gone

 

[Terpman22]

Wow. They definitely got sick of his s*** huh

 

[farfromforgotten]

I really like what the Texans are doing here. “If” everyone gels. Adding the likes of Diggs, Mixon, Hunter to their young nucleus of talented players. Watch out.

 

[The Duff Man]

Whether it is corporate America, a small town business or a professional sports team you can’t keep cancer on your team and Diggs turned into cancer with the Bills

 

[karl.Racki]

I said last season they were trading him and everyone laughed at me.. Anyone with a brain saw they were tired of him. His production dropped. others were getting the ball.

 

[travdogg]

This is a major downgrade for Diggs, and probably everyone other than Stroud.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Bills went WR in both round 1 and round 2.

This also pushes Jalen Hurts to QB1 in my opinion, until we see what Buffalo ends up with at WR.

 

[jtd13]

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Bills receive a 2025 2nd and Texans also receive 2024 5th and 6th rd picks is what I see.

Did not have this on my 2024 bingo card.

Wild

 

[zeeshan2]

Texans offense is loaded

 

[menobrown]

Was just telling someone I thought this was likely to happen for the past few weeks. Diggs traded and most likely to Houston. I've been hinting at it around here for a few weeks about it was obvious the Bills were trying to move on from Diggs. Just got to look at how teams up against the cap handle contracts of players with large base pay.

 

[travdogg]

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

I'm not sure Diggs>Collins. I think they play different roles, and Collins has already earned Stroud's trust.

I'm actually a little down on this move for Houston. Its adding a bit of a malcontent, to a position they didn't really need help at. If he's 100% on board its a nice addition, but that's 2 teams now Diggs has wore down.

 

[efactor]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Bills went WR in both round 1 and round 2.

I would. I think people are underestimating Shakir. He looked really good at the end of the season. They added Samual as well plus have Kincaid. Agree that WR in the first round in this deep draft class is almost a certainty but they also need to address the defense. Lot of losses in free agency.

 

[menobrown]

I'm just surprised at the comp. ETA-to be clear that they got a second. Figured he's get a 4th or third at most but actually that it's a future second and had to kick in some late picks this year that seems about right. Pretty much puts him on par with a current third.

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

See Diggs as clear cut #3. Houston would have rather got Keenan Allen, had to settle for Diggs. Just a team with a rookie QB and trying to maximize it but Diggs looks like the third best WR on the team and I agree with Travdogg, a major downgrade. And I don't think Allen will miss him a ton.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

I'm not sure Diggs>Collins. I think they play different roles, and Collins has already earned Stroud's trust.

I'm actually a little down on this move for Houston. Its adding a bit of a malcontent, to a position they didn't really need help at. If he's 100% on board its a nice addition, but that's 2 teams now Diggs has wore down.

Agreed. Offense was clicking already last year and I don't know that adding a diva to the mix to disrupt it is the best idea. Maybe for a super stud in their prime but a guy that will turn 31 this season and coming off a bad year isn't that.

 

[zeeshan2]

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

I'm not sure Diggs>Collins. I think they play different roles, and Collins has already earned Stroud's trust.

I'm actually a little down on this move for Houston. Its adding a bit of a malcontent, to a position they didn't really need help at. If he's 100% on board its a nice addition, but that's 2 teams now Diggs has wore down.

They tried trading for Allen too before the Chargers traded him to the Bears

 

[menobrown]

Per OTC the Bills are taking a $31m dead cap hit which is $4M more then any team has ever taken for a non-QB. That's how bad the Bills wanted to get rid of this guy.

 

[travdogg]

I wouldn't be shocked if the Bills went WR in both round 1 and round 2.

I would. I think people are underestimating Shakir. He looked really good at the end of the season. They added Samual as well plus have Kincaid. Agree that WR in the first round in this deep draft class is almost a certainty but they also need to address the defense. Lot of losses in free agency.

I'm not sure they do much on defense. They had a lot of turnover, but they brought in a lot of guys too. I like Shakir, but he and Samuel are slot guys. Unless the Bills are fully committing to an offense that is entirely based on short throws and RAC (which they might very well be as Kincaid is that too) in which case McConkey would be really interesting for them, I think they need downfield weapons.

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

I'm not sure Diggs>Collins. I think they play different roles, and Collins has already earned Stroud's trust.

I'm actually a little down on this move for Houston. Its adding a bit of a malcontent, to a position they didn't really need help at. If he's 100% on board its a nice addition, but that's 2 teams now Diggs has wore down.

They tried trading for Allen too before the Chargers traded him to the Bears

I think Allen>Diggs, but I also wonder if perhaps they are a lot more worried about Dell's health than we are. They still have both Robert Woods and Noah Brown, though I wouldn't be shocked if Woods was let go following this Diggs move. As Stroud has credited Woods (likely a future coach) a lot with the preparation aspect I worry he'd be missed a little.

 

[Buckna]

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

I'm not sure Diggs>Collins. I think they play different roles, and Collins has already earned Stroud's trust.

I'm actually a little down on this move for Houston. Its adding a bit of a malcontent, to a position they didn't really need help at. If he's 100% on board its a nice addition, but that's 2 teams now Diggs has wore down.

IMO, you're off here. The offense majorly took a step back once Tank broke his leg last year. Noah Brown failed to step up in Tank's absence, Robert Woods couldn't stay healthy and was barely a factor on the field. Nico is a FA next year and potentially could walk (I doubt it) and he has gotten nicked up from time to time every season too. They have been trying to add/upgrade a viable 3rd guy all offseason (like being in on Keenan Allen) and were linked to WR's in many mock drafts.

 

[nysfl2]

I'm just surprised at the comp. ETA-to be clear that they got a second. Figured he's get a 4th or third at most but actually that it's a future second and had to kick in some late picks this year that seems about right. Pretty much puts him on par with a current third.

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

See Diggs as clear cut #3. Houston would have rather got Keenan Allen, had to settle for Diggs. Just a team with a rookie QB and trying to maximize it but Diggs looks like the third best WR on the team and I agree with Travdogg, a major downgrade. And I don't think Allen will miss him a ton.

I don't see diggs being very happy if he's the #3 option

 

[MTskibum]

I really like what the Texans are doing here. “If” everyone gels. Adding the likes of Diggs, Mixon, Hunter to their young nucleus of talented players. Watch out.

As a texans fan I hate it.

Should have paid Nico that money and used the 2nd on a WR. Build through the draft, don't trade for old malcontent WR's that are being cast off from their teams.

 

[menobrown]

I'm just surprised at the comp. ETA-to be clear that they got a second. Figured he's get a 4th or third at most but actually that it's a future second and had to kick in some late picks this year that seems about right. Pretty much puts him on par with a current third.

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

See Diggs as clear cut #3. Houston would have rather got Keenan Allen, had to settle for Diggs. Just a team with a rookie QB and trying to maximize it but Diggs looks like the third best WR on the team and I agree with Travdogg, a major downgrade. And I don't think Allen will miss him a ton.

I don't see diggs being very happy if he's the #3 option

New realities are hard.

 

[pinkstapler]

I'm just surprised at the comp

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

See Diggs as clear cut #3. Houston would have rather got Keenan Allen, had to settle for Diggs. Just a team with a rookie QB and trying to maximize it but Diggs looks like the third best WR on the team and I agree with Travdogg, a major downgrade. And I don't think Allen will miss him a ton.

I have a really hard time believing it will be a major downgrade from where the Buffalo offense shifted by the end of last season; Diggs was 24 for 214 over the final 5 weeks. I would think 5/40 would be his floor in the Texans offense next season considering the move. While I disagree completely Collins and Dell are better receivers than him, I can at least squint and see the argument, which I guess amounts to people believing Diggs completely fell of the cliff last season and will never get back to form. Which he was in for the entire beginning of last season.... Actually even squinting I have a hard time seeing that too lol.

 

[zeeshan2]

Per OTC the Bills are taking a $31m dead cap hit which is $4M more then any team has ever taken for a non-QB. That's how bad the Bills wanted to get rid of this guy.

that, giving draft capital up, and trading him to an AFC contender

 

[efactor]

I'm just surprised at the comp. ETA-to be clear that they got a second. Figured he's get a 4th or third at most but actually that it's a future second and had to kick in some late picks this year that seems about right. Pretty much puts him on par with a current third.

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

See Diggs as clear cut #3. Houston would have rather got Keenan Allen, had to settle for Diggs. Just a team with a rookie QB and trying to maximize it but Diggs looks like the third best WR on the team and I agree with Travdogg, a major downgrade. And I don't think Allen will miss him a ton.

I don't see diggs being very happy if he's the #3 option

He won’t be

Houston will be fun to watch this year.

 

[Da Franchise]

So who is actually paying him the $$ this year? And how much does he hit Houston’s cap for?

 

[need2know]

so how long until he starts complaining about Houston?

 

[menobrown]

I'm just surprised at the comp

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

See Diggs as clear cut #3. Houston would have rather got Keenan Allen, had to settle for Diggs. Just a team with a rookie QB and trying to maximize it but Diggs looks like the third best WR on the team and I agree with Travdogg, a major downgrade. And I don't think Allen will miss him a ton.

I have a really hard time believing it will be a major downgrade from where the Buffalo offense shifted by the end of last season; Diggs was 24 for 214 over the final 5 weeks. I would think 5/40 would be his floor in the Texans offense next season considering the move. While I disagree completely Collins and Dell are better receivers than him, I can at least squint and see the argument, which I guess amounts to people believing Diggs completely fell of the cliff last season and will never get back to form. Which he was in for the entire beginning of last season.... Actually even squinting I have a hard time seeing that too lol.

Yep we will on the bolded and the Diggs decline was all on him IMO. Had nothing to do with the offense IMO, it's not like they were not trying to get him the ball. 7.4 yards a target is awful, especially when you got Josh Allen at QB. Best argument anyone can make to me on that is he was not that much worse a few years ago so was just a in slump, injured, moody, or whatever and will rebound. I'm just not seeing it and after week 6 he was averaged barely 6 yards a target. Sometimes players fall of a cliff, I think he did.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

so how long until he starts complaining about Houston?

10 minutes ago. LOL

 

[menobrown]

So who is actually paying him the $$ this year? And how much does he hit Houston’s cap for?

Bills take $31m dead money hit, lose a little over $3M in actual cap space this year. Texans pay him $19M.

 

[travdogg]

I'm just surprised at the comp

This is a major downgrade for Diggs,

This is an upgrade for Diggs compared to the Joe Brady 60% run offense, but a downgrade from the 3 years prior. I like Dell and Collins a lot but Diggs will still be the alpha there.

See Diggs as clear cut #3. Houston would have rather got Keenan Allen, had to settle for Diggs. Just a team with a rookie QB and trying to maximize it but Diggs looks like the third best WR on the team and I agree with Travdogg, a major downgrade. And I don't think Allen will miss him a ton.

I have a really hard time believing it will be a major downgrade from where the Buffalo offense shifted by the end of last season; Diggs was 24 for 214 over the final 5 weeks. I would think 5/40 would be his floor in the Texans offense next season considering the move. While I disagree completely Collins and Dell are better receivers than him, I can at least squint and see the argument, which I guess amounts to people believing Diggs completely fell of the cliff last season and will never get back to form. Which he was in for the entire beginning of last season.... Actually even squinting I have a hard time seeing that too lol.

I think #3 WR is pushing it, but I can certainly see Collins ahead of him. His 160 target days are over. I personally think it was less the Joe Brady offense, and more that Diggs wasn't fully healthy, and was a little checked out. Has he lost a step? Perhaps he has, though I think he's still a pretty good WR.

I had him around WR10-WR12 in redraft before this deal. I think WR20 is probably reasonable now, maybe lower. I had Collins as a top-10 WR, he probably falls into more of the 11-15 range. I had Dell around WR20, and he's probably a low-end WR3 now. Probably also makes Dalton Schultz a clear #2 TE in fantasy.

Its great news for Stroud. I think he's clearly a top-5 QB at this point (I had him around 5 before the trade) he's got the best weapons in the AFC in my opinion. Probably great news for Mixon as well, as he's gonna be punching in a lot of TDs.

 

[beef]

Diggs can be a diva, but when divas are happy they're f'n studs. I might throw out some feelers.

 

[travdogg]

Diggs can be a diva, but when divas are happy they're f'n studs. I might throw out some feelers.

I feel confident he'll be on his best behavior for 1 season at least.