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WR Tetairoa McMillan, CAR (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I'm glad this board helps me not feeling crazy in pumping the brakes on Tet a bit. Best WR of this class, sure I can get on board with that. But the Evans and AJ Green comps seem super optimistic/best case outcome for him (I won't even touch the JJ comp haha). Drake London seems the closest to me, and also makes sense because I didn't love London for many of the same reasons I don't love Tet, at least compared to their ADP price. The inability to separate is a worry for me and makes him more landing spot dependent than I'd want from a 1.02/1.03 or even 1.04 rookie pick. Even QBs who aggressively throw into coverage often take time to build that rapport/trust. If they have other receiving options, could be even longer.
Saying all that I do like Tet, and London did finally pay off his investors here in year 3. You'd like to think that will continue with what looks like a competent Penix throwing to him. But if Tet lands with some of the teams being mocked to take a WR like Jets, Cardinals, Steelers, or even the Ravens... I'm going to have a really hard time taking him over the top 3-5 RBs, especially looking at all the juicy landing spots for them and the fact fewer of them are scheme dependent. (Kaleb Johnson probably needing an outsize zone scheme to hit his ceiling being the only one jumping out at me rn).
If he maintains a 1.02/3 ADP through the NFL draft, and I'm holding one of those picks, I think the savvy move is to trade back a few picks and acquire a little extra juice while taking a RB with a higher chance to hit and hit sooner. Panthers may be the only landing spot that tempts me away from that as Young looked to take the next step and there is pretty much 0 competition there. Though Canales is still likely to continue favoring the run there.
Saying all that I do like Tet, and London did finally pay off his investors here in year 3. You'd like to think that will continue with what looks like a competent Penix throwing to him. But if Tet lands with some of the teams being mocked to take a WR like Jets, Cardinals, Steelers, or even the Ravens... I'm going to have a really hard time taking him over the top 3-5 RBs, especially looking at all the juicy landing spots for them and the fact fewer of them are scheme dependent. (Kaleb Johnson probably needing an outsize zone scheme to hit his ceiling being the only one jumping out at me rn).
If he maintains a 1.02/3 ADP through the NFL draft, and I'm holding one of those picks, I think the savvy move is to trade back a few picks and acquire a little extra juice while taking a RB with a higher chance to hit and hit sooner. Panthers may be the only landing spot that tempts me away from that as Young looked to take the next step and there is pretty much 0 competition there. Though Canales is still likely to continue favoring the run there.
Boston
Footballguy
I would think the Pats would be the best spot for him...paired with Maye he would have a chance to shine right away...Pats could go a lot of different ways at 1.4 but I do think what they do in FA will provide a clue.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Pats aren't a bad one either. I kept figuring they'd add a FA WR. But I guess unless it was someone like Higgins, Devantae, or Godwin that Tet would still wind up being the 1 there and get fed.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Drake London type?
A lot of teams will be kicking themselves if they let him fall anywhere near that far, especially to LAC.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
If the Bucs sign Godwin Tampa definitely doesn't feel like the spot, but they'd probably have some trade partners if he did fall that far. And, he'd still be tempting with Mike in the last year of his deal.
Pretty sure we'll have to draft him blind of any 40, he's going the Drake London route. He's not running at the combine and I got a feeling he'll find a way to not run as his pro day despite what he's saying. Heard some talk yesterday that he's really slow, like top 10 pick outlier kind of slow.
As we know that does not always matter, I'd still feel better if I knew he could break like a 4.6.
As we know that does not always matter, I'd still feel better if I knew he could break like a 4.6.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Am I misguided in getting some N'Keal Harry vibes on McMillan?
Harry at Arizona State: 6'4", 216 pounds, 213 catches, 22 TD. (Note that he added 10 pounds by the time he got to the combine.)
McMillian at Arizona: 6'5", 212 pounds, 213 catches, 26 TD.
Both played in 37 games. Harry had 9 games with 100+ yards and 3 games with 2+ TD. McMillian had 12 games with 100+ yards and 3 games with 2+ TD.
McMillan averaged more yards per catch, but in their final 2 seasons, they were only separated by around a yard or so.
Their size and numbers seem in the same ballpark. IIRC, Harry had a 40 time of 4.53 while I believe McMillan was 4.5. Lance Zierlein graded Harry at a 6.3 vs. McMillan at 6.4.
I don't watch enough college football to be able to truly compare the two. Are they a lot more different than they appear to me?
Harry at Arizona State: 6'4", 216 pounds, 213 catches, 22 TD. (Note that he added 10 pounds by the time he got to the combine.)
McMillian at Arizona: 6'5", 212 pounds, 213 catches, 26 TD.
Both played in 37 games. Harry had 9 games with 100+ yards and 3 games with 2+ TD. McMillian had 12 games with 100+ yards and 3 games with 2+ TD.
McMillan averaged more yards per catch, but in their final 2 seasons, they were only separated by around a yard or so.
Their size and numbers seem in the same ballpark. IIRC, Harry had a 40 time of 4.53 while I believe McMillan was 4.5. Lance Zierlein graded Harry at a 6.3 vs. McMillan at 6.4.
I don't watch enough college football to be able to truly compare the two. Are they a lot more different than they appear to me?
About the same as Drake London. Good luck figuring out which guy he will be. I'm leaning closer to London but no real good reasoning.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Harry was compared to Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, Allen Robinson, Devin Funchess, and Laquon Treadwell. Quite the range of players. I don't think many people expected Harry to end up with a third the career totals of Laquon Treadwell . . . but here we are.
In this draft, McMillan is ranked as T-17 in terms of overall prospect grade by Lane Zierlien (tied as the 3rd best WR prospect with Matthew Golden from Texas). I get it, it's only one man's opinion. With the same score, if McMillan had been in last year's draft class, Zierlien's grade would have McMillan as tied for the 5th best WR prospect (and likely an early 2nd round pick).
I've seen the Drake London comps as well . . . I just wonder if he's getting more attention and hyped because this draft isn't as deep and the WR class isn't as strong.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
This WR class is awful overall. They are trying to hype up any solid prospect.
TM is good but in many classes he’d be the 4th/5th best prospect at WR
TM is good but in many classes he’d be the 4th/5th best prospect at WR
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Besides Tetairoa, WR and QB seem very weak... might be a return to form where 5 out of the 1st 7 picks are RBs
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
If Tet goes at 2 then you obviously should pick RB at 3 this year unless your league scoring / lineup situation is jacked up.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
As mentioned earlier . . . is McMillan considered as a top option based on this being a lukewarm draft class for WR.
Here are the WRs from the past 5 drafts (and the prospects from the one coming up) that NFL.com graded higher (ot the same) as McMillan.
DeVonta Smith 7.13
Ja’Marr Chase 7.12
Travis Hunter 6.89
Malik Nabers 6.86
Jaylen Waddle 6.86
Marvin Harrison 6.83
CeeDee Lamb 6.81
Jerry Jeudy 6.77
Rome Odunze 6.74
Henry Riggs 6.72
Garrett Wilson 6.50
Jalin Hyatt 6.50
Traylon Burkes 6.50
Jameson William 6.48
Brian Thomas 6.47
Luther Burden 6.47
Justin Jefferson 6.46
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6.46
Zay Flowers 6.46
Josh Down 6.44
Chris Olave 6.43
Elijah Moore 6.43
Matthew Gordon 6.40
Ladd McConkey 6.40
Drake London 6.40
Teteroia McMillan 6.40
Most of those guys have done well. But it does appear that McMillan is in a draft without a lot of highly rated WRs,
Here are the WRs from the past 5 drafts (and the prospects from the one coming up) that NFL.com graded higher (ot the same) as McMillan.
DeVonta Smith 7.13
Ja’Marr Chase 7.12
Travis Hunter 6.89
Malik Nabers 6.86
Jaylen Waddle 6.86
Marvin Harrison 6.83
CeeDee Lamb 6.81
Jerry Jeudy 6.77
Rome Odunze 6.74
Henry Riggs 6.72
Garrett Wilson 6.50
Jalin Hyatt 6.50
Traylon Burkes 6.50
Jameson William 6.48
Brian Thomas 6.47
Luther Burden 6.47
Justin Jefferson 6.46
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6.46
Zay Flowers 6.46
Josh Down 6.44
Chris Olave 6.43
Elijah Moore 6.43
Matthew Gordon 6.40
Ladd McConkey 6.40
Drake London 6.40
Teteroia McMillan 6.40
Most of those guys have done well. But it does appear that McMillan is in a draft without a lot of highly rated WRs,
Faust
MVP
NFL Draft Files
Tetairoa McMillan runs a 4.48 40 yard dash at his Pro Day, per @Schultz_Report
Long speed was a question mark, but his time matches the tape.
Bona fide 1st round talent.
rockaction
Footballguy
Gotta add about .05 to that time if they're hand-timing it. That puts him in a dangerous 4.6 range. Omario Hampton just moved up in dynasty rankings to the number two selection, IMO. I don't think that this is "overthinking" it. I think it's prudent to consider his splits and the measurement of his intermediate/longer speed. I'll wait to see what Matt Harmon has to say about his college tape. All of those things are a factor.
Faust
MVP
Faust
MVP
@JVillainsPod
When Steve Smith doesn’t like a WR, my ears perk up
He’s not high on TMac
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
There’s a reason he didn’t run at the combine. My guess is he would have ran a 4.6, maybe 4.57,4.58 at best.
I was surprised he ran at all.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I am too kind of. He did about as well as he’s capable of. The times probably won’t hurt or help him like a 4.6 plus at the combine would have.
rockaction
Footballguy
Same here. You can bet Jeanty is watching these numbers and thinking, "No way do I run."
Faust
MVP
@JVillainsPod
When Steve Smith doesn’t like a WR, my ears perk up
He’s not high on TMac
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Did no one learn anything from Marvin Harrison Jr?
rockaction
Footballguy
At first I was thinking that this was going to be an article that pumped me up on McMillan, but by the end the prognosis didn't sound good. Check this.
"My biggest concern with Tetairoa McMillan is his inability to beat press coverage. He lacks the burst off the line of scrimmage to stack his opponent within the first few steps and he rarely ends up creating vertical separation. Most of his targets down the sideline were tightly contested, and even though he won those at a relatively high rate in college, he’ll have much less of a physical advantage over NFL defenders. Because he lacks the vertical push to win with a linear release, he’s forced to take wide departure angles off the line of scrimmage and he frequently gets blanketed and walled off to the sideline. He reportedly ran somewhere in the mid-4.5s at his pro day, which lines up with the tape.
His mediocre speed and explosiveness also prevents him from using the threat of a deep route to create intermediate separation. Since defenders aren’t worried about getting beat vertically, many of his release fakes aren’t plausible and they have the freedom to play him top-down and squat on underneath routes."
I italicized the above quote. That's pretty damning. He's going to need to beat press coverage in the pros and if they don't respect him deep, it's going to be tough to get separation at all. Teams don't want to play him as a "big slot," as the article suggests. Those roles aren't just getting fewer and fewer to come by—he might be too "big" for even a "big slot." Do you want your first round pick in the draft playing big slot most of the time? I don't think you do.
Tetairoa might wind up being an excellent receiver, but if I had the number two pick in a dynasty draft, I do not think I'd use it on him even though he's more athletic than his naysayers say (I think).
eta 3/29**** but see the next page of this thread where I post some of Matt Harmon’s comments about charting McMillan
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Ben & Jerry's
Footballguy
I think Hampton is the clear cut 1.02, predraft of course.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
"and now I'd like to Pass the Mic to my brother DirtyWord and say anything you like"-I want to hear more because I felt like he was a flop especially Redraft where he went pretty high, like one of the first 10-12 WRs off the board
Soulfly3
Footballguy
-I want to hear more because I felt like he was a flop especially Redraft where he went pretty high, like one of the first 10-12 WRs off the board
I was "lower" than most on MHJ, and thought Nabers was the better prospect.... But comparing MHJ to Tet is a bit of an insult...
