4. TYLER JOHNSON, MINNESOTA (AGE: 21.5)
Where he ranks: Johnson ranks one spot behind and effectively tied with Shenault as our eighth-best prospect since 2015.
Why he ranks here:
Our model looks only at a player’s hard data — analytics with proven predictive power — while ignoring the subjective, things like “industry consensus” or expectations heading into the Combine. Though that’s true for our model, it won’t be true for our dynasty rankings, which will likely have Johnson a lot lower after he failed to earn an invite to the Senior Bowl (implying little chance of being a Day 1 or Day 2 draft pick). However, if we're looking purely at the objective, and by literally every variable our model finds meaningful, Johnson has the profile of an elite prospect.
Like all of the other wide receivers mentioned thus far, Johnson broke out early. As a 19-year-old sophomore, he caught 45 passes for 677 yards and seven touchdowns. If that doesn’t seem so impressive, please note the team’s next-closest receiver totaled just 132 yards. Across the 10 games Johnson played, he scored an elite dominator rating (62.7%), single-handedly accounting for a whopping 47.5% of his team’s passing yards (not far off Shenault’s mark) along with 77.8% of the passing touchdowns.
Remarkably, he stepped up his game even further over the next two seasons, falling just three yards shy of CeeDee Lamb for the nation-high in receiving yards (2,378). Even more impressive, he led all Power-5 receivers in receptions (165), touchdowns (25), first downs (119), PFF grade (94.6) and yards per route run (3.50). Unlike Lamb or Jeudy, these numbers were reached on a far less prolific offense that Johnson was forced to carry and uplift, which he did so to dramatic effect.
Johnson led the Power-5 in yardage market share over this span, comprising 41.6% of the team’s passing yards along with an impressive 52.1% touchdown share. On his targets, Johnson earned his quarterbacks a 122.5 passer rating, as opposed to their 90.5 passer rating when targeting any other receiver.
The NFL may feel otherwise, but, statistically speaking, Johnson looks every bit the part of a future stud.