Pwingles
Footballguy
Allen for Inman and Henry sounds about rightBigTex said:I have Allen, T Williams and M Williams on my roster and would like to unload one or two of them but it's really difficult to figure which I like to move.
Tex
Allen for Inman and Henry sounds about rightBigTex said:I have Allen, T Williams and M Williams on my roster and would like to unload one or two of them but it's really difficult to figure which I like to move.
Tex
How in the hell is Crabtree outside of the top 24?I'm fully on the train. Tyrell has it all and produced well last year. Needs to clean up some of the technical stuff and grow his relationship with Rivers but I like him a bit more than WR30........I'd take himin front of Moncrief,, Crabtree, Pryor, Mike Williams.......so maybe WR 26ish for me........
You do understand people have different rankings right? Like it's not absurd to have Crabtree 2-3 spots below where you have him. LolHow in the hell is Crabtree outside of the top 24?
Oh sure, but I'm talking about a guy who seems to be consensus top-16. Granted there's a bunch of guys clustered together in that range, but still...You do understand people have different rankings right? Like it's not absurd to have Crabtree 2-3 spots below where you have him. Lol
In my PPR league, Crabtree finished as the #12 wideout last season and #17 in 2015, so a top 16 finish seems like a fair projection. On my own board, I have Crabtree ranked 20, still well ahead of Tyrell Williams, who I have adjusted up to 32 since the recent Mike Williams news.Oh sure, but I'm talking about a guy who seems to be consensus top-16. Granted there's a bunch of guys clustered together in that range, but still...
But still what? I have a younger receiver I'm high on. Crabtree isn't the best receiver on his team imo. Meh I like Tyrell better than Crabtree.tangfoot said:Oh sure, but I'm talking about a guy who seems to be consensus top-16. Granted there's a bunch of guys clustered together in that range, but still...
I have to agree. Keenan has shown not to stay healthy, Gates is toast, Henry is still young, M. Williams is hurt and Gordon wont lead in receiving.Gr00vus said:Your leading receiver in yards and TDs for the 2017 Chargers.
1. Allen will likely work more heavily out of the slot this year, which should negate many opponents from shadowing him with their best CB and also should limit the double coverage he faces. So that possible benefit for Tyrell is likely overstated here.I am eager to see how a healthy Keenan Allen running opposite Tyrell Williams will affect his numbers. Allen will arguably draw opposing defense's best defender(s), and defenses will have to account for Gates and/or Henry, leaving Tyrell running single covered likely against the defense's second corner. That is the same arrangement that has benefitted Crabtree lining up opposite Cooper. Tyrell Williams could continue to thrive in what promises to be one of the more potent offenses in the NFL. Tyrell Williams had the kind of season last year that Keenan Allen owners have only dreamed about so far, and it should surprise nobody if Tyrell actually leads the team in receptions and yards.
I'll take the under on receptions for sure. Yards is possible.Gr00vus said:Your leading receiver in yards and TDs for the 2017 Chargers.
From a NFL perspective, he should perform better. He had a lot of fundamental issues last season (route running, contested balls, back shoulder throws, etc.). Now he has a season of experience and a full offseason with a defined role in the offense to study film and work to improve.I can't imagine him doing worse with a healthy Keenan on the other side of him to take coverage away.
Interesting, he is listed as having the 11th best contested catch rate in the NFL last year.From a NFL perspective, he should perform better. He had a lot of fundamental issues last season (route running, contested balls, back shoulder throws, etc.). Now he has a season of experience and a full offseason with a defined role in the offense to study film and work to improve.
However, he should get a lot fewer than the 119 targets he had last year, especially if he is playing all season with a healthy Keenan.
Totally agree with your assessment. I'd say contested balls and River's interception rate when targeting Tyrell are the #1 reason Mike Williams was drafted but would think TW will seize opportunity to upgrade his ability in that area. He's consistently overachieved in so many other regards.From a NFL perspective, he should perform better. He had a lot of fundamental issues last season (route running, contested balls, back shoulder throws, etc.). Now he has a season of experience and a full offseason with a defined role in the offense to study film and work to improve.
However, he should get a lot fewer than the 119 targets he had last year, especially if he is playing all season with a healthy Keenan.
That is interesting. Maybe it's the interception rate that bothered coaches last year.Interesting, he is listed as having the 11th best contested catch rate in the NFL last year.
I don't know exactly how much a catch needs to be contested for the people tracking that to count it as obviously not all contested catches are equal.That is interesting. Maybe it's the interception rate that bothered coaches last year.
Indeed. Also we are talking about highly biased individuals watching from the sideline. All it takes is a Group Thought that Tyrell should have brought down a ball that was intercepted in a few high leverage situations.I don't know exactly how much a catch needs to be contested for the people tracking that to count it as obviously not all contested catches are equal.
Right, so I don't go overboard in trusting those type of stats, but I do think they are useful and give you an idea of how the player played.Indeed. Also we are talking about highly biased individuals watching from the sideline. All it takes is a Group Thought that Tyrell should have brought down a ball that was intercepted in a few high leverage situations.
Absolutely. And it's also very possible the coaches were caught up in an emotional reaction and looking for a scapegoat.. particularly one with a later round pedigree.Right, so I don't go overboard in trusting those type of stats, but I do think they are useful and give you an idea of how the player played.
Keenan Allen's rookie season (2013) he had 105 targets, 71 receptions for 1,046 yards and 8 TDs1. Allen will likely work more heavily out of the slot this year, which should negate many opponents from shadowing him with their best CB and also should limit the double coverage he faces. So that possible benefit for Tyrell is likely overstated here.
2. I have thrown out target breakdowns elsewhere. IMO Tyrell will be under 100 targets this season unless Allen misses 4+ games. That will cap his production.
3. Consequently, IMO the only way Tyrell leads the team in receptions is if Allen misses 4+ games.
4. Allen's rookie season was better than Tyrell's 2016 season, so your "dreamed about" statement is wrong.
All that said, I like Tyrell's talent. I view him as a top 30-ish dynasty WR. But his opportunity could be limited this year if Rivers' targets are healthier overall. Certainly, Mike W's current back situation might help, but there is still a lot of competition for targets even without him.
Good post. On the first part, Allen put up those numbers in 15 games, compared to 16 for Tyrell. His line was also more efficient (CR, YPT, first downs). Tyrell had more big plays, though (20+ and 40+). Agree that 2013 season for Allen now seems like ancient history...Keenan Allen's rookie season (2013) he had 105 targets, 71 receptions for 1,046 yards and 8 TDs
Tyrell Williams 2016 season he had 119 targets, 69 receptions for 1,059 yards and 7 TDs
Those are essentially equal numbers. The problem for Keenan Allen is that his success was back in 2013. Since then, he has failed to reach 800 yards in a season, and he has no more than 4 TDs in a season. I understand that injuries have limited him.
I have Allen projected as the team's top receiver. I have him ranked as my #25 receiver. I have moved Tyrell Williams up in my rankings with the news about Mike Williams, but I still have him at 32 (up from 36). I have Williams projected with more yards, and Allen projected with more receptions and TDs.
Having watched all of his games last season, that is surprising. I commented on it in this forum periodically during last season, and I do think he got better as the season went on.Interesting, he is listed as having the 11th best contested catch rate in the NFL last year.
But Allen has been incredibly inefficient. Add in Henry, Williams and Gordon and I think he's vastly overrated and injuries have nothing to do with it. The targets will plummet and I'd expect more of wr3 numbers.Good post. On the first part, Allen put up those numbers in 15 games, compared to 16 for Tyrell. His line was also more efficient (CR, YPT, first downs). Tyrell had more big plays, though (20+ and 40+). Agree that 2013 season for Allen now seems like ancient history...
When has he been inefficient? Cite some basis for this that properly accounts for his injuries.But Allen has been incredibly inefficient.
He should get better. But he was the WR1 last year by necessity because WR1 Allen was lost for the season, WR2 Benjamin was playing through a PCL injury, and WR3 Stevie Johnson was lost for the season. Williams was the WR4 before all that and was forced into the WR1 role by necessity. He did well all things considered, but also showed a lot of flaws that hurt the offense at times. Hence, with the return of healthy Allen and Benjamin plus drafting of Mike Williams (who might not be healthy), Tyrell is pushed back down the depth chart.I'm a bit confused, so clarify some things for me:
Wasn't he the WR1 last year, and consequently was drawing at least some CB1 coverage, if not the majority of it?
He's only 24. Isn't he capable of getting better?
So why couldn't he have a better year than last year? Thanks. I'll hang up and listen.
Hence, with the return of healthy Allen and Benjamin plus drafting of Mike Williams (who might not be healthy), Tyrell is pushed back down the depth chart.
Benjamin is currently WR2 to WR4, depending on where he stands relative to Tyrell and Mike Williams. IMO he will be released after 2017, barring a monster bounceback season.@Just Win Baby thanks for the in-depth analysis about the Chargers. I guess I'm curious about how Tyrell fits in with the Chargers' current situation. The team seems to be on the upswing but not necessarily in win-the-Super-Bowl-now mode. Since Tyrell is an RFA and not a UFA, does the team have a vested interest in his playing time and development? Or am I reading more into the situation than is really there?
I never said he "can't possibly improve" over last year. In fact, in my last response to you, I acknowledged that he could have a better year, but also stated my opinion that it isn't likely and stated reasons for that. You are free to disagree.So Benjamin and M Williams have proven they are already better than Ty Williams, and Ty can't possibly improve enough over last year to change the depth chart?
That's some pretty odd thinking IMO.
cant they slap some transition tag on him? I don't see him just walkingBenjamin is currently WR2 to WR4, depending on where he stands relative to Tyrell and Mike Williams. IMO he will be released after 2017, barring a monster bounceback season.
Inman is currently WR4 or WR5, depending on where he stands relative to Mike Williams. (And remember, he is the best blocking WR on the roster, which may be even more important to new HC Anthony Lynn than it was to the previous regime.) He is a UFA after 2017 and could easily be gone.
That suggests that the Chargers will have Allen and Mike Williams locked in entering the 2018 offseason, but no other WRs. I could see them bringing back Tyrell, but only if it was at WR3 price... after all, they just drafted Mike Williams at 1.7 and gave Allen a $45M extension. It seems more likely that they would settle with Inman and let Tyrell go, assuming other teams are willing to pay more for Tyrell.
I don't think that means the Chargers aren't 'invested' in Tyrell's devlopment. I think they want to win now, and he can help them do that as their WR2 this season. I just don't expect that role to be as fantasy relevant as some others do here.
Just Win Baby said:I never said he "can't possibly improve" over last year. In fact, in my last response to you, I acknowledged that he could have a better year, but also stated my opinion that it isn't likely and stated reasons for that. You are free to disagree.
Just to be crystal clear, I expect Tyrell to be WR2 for the Chargers this season. IMO that will result in a considerable reduction in targets for him this season, barring significant injuries to other targets. This is because he will share targets with WR1 Allen, WR2/3 Benjamin, WR 4/5 Inman, WR ? Mike Williams, TE1 Henry, TE2 Gates, RB1 Gordon, and RB2+ Oliver, et al. Again:Just Win Baby said:I never said he "can't possibly improve" over last year. In fact, in my last response to you, I acknowledged that he could have a better year, but also stated my opinion that it isn't likely and stated reasons for that. You are free to disagree.
Yeah you did say that, after implying that he would drop back to WR4 and require multiple injuries in front of him to do it. Again, also implying that his game was behind both Benjamin's and M Williams' as well as Allen and would continue to remain that way.
Yeah he'll be an RFA. They can tender him at a 2nd round level, which was less than $3m for other WRs who got that tag this year. Maybe he has a really great year and someone thinks he is worth the 2nd, but odds are he'll be on the roster in 2018. I agree with JWB that it's unlikely they invest a long term deal in him unless one of Allen or MW hasn't panned out over the next 2 seasons.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:cant they slap some transition tag on him? I don't see him just walking
Benjamin has 1 role. It's an important one but one that doesn't require a high level of targets: stretch the D verticallyNot getting the love for Benjamin at all. It appears that Allen's move to the slot is pushing him onto the punt team. What am I missing here? I'll admit I've never thought much of the guy.
Been thinking about this in regards to his percieved flaws..Just Win Baby said:He should get better. But he was the WR1 last year by necessity because WR1 Allen was lost for the season, WR2 Benjamin was playing through a PCL injury, and WR3 Stevie Johnson was lost for the season. Williams was the WR4 before all that and was forced into the WR1 role by necessity. He did well all things considered, but also showed a lot of flaws that hurt the offense at times. Hence, with the return of healthy Allen and Benjamin plus drafting of Mike Williams (who might not be healthy), Tyrell is pushed back down the depth chart.
"Couldn't" he have a better year? Yes, he could. If the team suffers multiple injuries ahead of him again, he could become the de facto WR1 again.
Should he be expected to have a better year? No.
Benjamin has 1 role. It's an important one but one that doesn't require a high level of targets: stretch the D verticallyNot getting the love for Benjamin at all. It appears that Allen's move to the slot is pushing him onto the punt team. What am I missing here? I'll admit I've never thought much of the guy.
Williams was forced into a WR1 role due to circumstances, performed well at some things, and struggled with others. I think overall his season was definitely a success.All players have flaws, yes? Especially young players and Tyrell is a UDFA who was dominant at times (remebering his at times extrodinary YAC particularly on crossing routes, his sideline play.. nothing in front of me at this moment.. ahem). This in his 1st start for his 2nd year on the team. For any young wideout in that position, his 2016 would have to be considered a success regardless of draft capitol or pedigree, no?
Can you point out this "stiff standard" people are holding him to in this thread?Why is there such a stiff standard for this player who's only shown an ability to improve and produce whenever called upon. It's not as if he was outperformed by the other vets on the team. He just took the #1 and held it over the course of the season. Why isn't the question "where does he win?" and why not give him a pass on making mistakes as most young recievers do?
Easy there. i was refering to team management.Can you point out this "stiff standard" people are holding him to in this thread?
This isn't really even directed at you. I'm just having thoughts...I have already said..
My mistake for using *whenever*. Should have said *when* as in for the whole season. I watched the Chargers some, probably not as much as you. I'm aware he made mistakes. I think the overreaction on the part of team oaches is *He cost us the game!* and not *this rash of injuries some of which that have lead us to rely on this young reciever has jeapordized our season!* I'm guessing he didn't get the volume of snaps and 1st team work as a rookie, yet when he started late in the year he burned the Broncos secondary for a long score.Williams absolutely did not produce whenever called upon. At times, he ran the wrong routes, ran poor routes, did not adjust to the ball well, and made simple mistakes like running through instead of sitting down in a zone. I have been watching the Chargers for all of Rivers' career, and I never saw him get on another player as often as he got on Williams last season for his mistakes. Some of his mistakes cost the team TDs (I can think of at least 2 times) and others led to interceptions... at least 6 of Rivers' 21 interceptions were targeting Williams, and I would put responsibility on most of those on Williams.
Fair points. I have had him in the WR 3/fex area. I don't do projections because I am too lazy. I like Rich Hibrar's though: 63 for 932 and 6. You make a good point about the risks. Of course nearly every WR in this range comes with substantial risk.Fantasy perspective is different. As of right now, Allen is expected to be healthy this season. That makes him the WR1, and he will lead the team in targets if he stays healthy. That pushes Williams to WR2. Combine that with new HC Anthony Lynn being known for strong running games and thus the likelihood of fewer pass attempts, and Williams is a virtual lock to get fewer targets, probably by a large margin. Williams had 119 targets last season but IMO will be challenged to get 90 this year unless there are serious injuries to other key targets that again force targets to Tyrell.
Based on this thread, it seems pretty likely that Tyrell will be overdrafted this season.
Maybe I'm unreasonably high on Travis Benjamin in that while I don't think he will be noteworthy in fantasy, I think he'll be good enough to keep Tyrell from WR2 (ppg) numbers unless Rivers just goes nuts this year.I am probably being unreasonably high on Tyrell this season but I honestly think he can finish as a mid-high end WR2 this year.
I don't see how he sees more than 100 targets. For the same reason that I don't see realistic WR1 upside for Allen, I don't see realistic WR2 upside for Williams.I am probably being unreasonably high on Tyrell this season but I honestly think he can finish as a mid-high end WR2 this year.
I'm with you on him... IMO He's at least a solid flex play until Mike Williams comes back... and while projecting injuries is a dice roll at best, I don't think it's unreasonable to factor in an above average chance Allen misses some time.I am probably being unreasonably high on Tyrell this season but I honestly think he can finish as a mid-high end WR2 this year.
I wouldn't call it unreasonable but one of two things would need to happen. A. Keenan gets hurt again or B. It takes Williams longer than expected to get on the field. Even with Williams coming back Tyrell could shut him out if he is performing well. In my draft last weekend I picked him up as my WR5 and so am pretty happy with his value but I would not draft him as a WR2 even if you think he is going to finish there.I am probably being unreasonably high on Tyrell this season but I honestly think he can finish as a mid-high end WR2 this year.