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WR Tyrell Williams, DET - 9.22.21 - Concussion - Unlikely To Play Week 3 (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Redmen62
- Start date
Milkman
Footballguy
I'm fully on the train. Tyrell has it all and produced well last year. Needs to clean up some of the technical stuff and grow his relationship with Rivers but I like him a bit more than WR30........I'd take himin front of Moncrief,, Crabtree, Pryor, Mike Williams.......so maybe WR 26ish for me........
abbottjamesr
Footballguy
I have him as WR24. 0.2 points per game separate WR16 and WR26 on my board. It would be easy to rearrange them all sorts of ways.
Milkman
Footballguy
You do understand people have different rankings right? Like it's not absurd to have Crabtree 2-3 spots below where you have him. Lol
Oh sure, but I'm talking about a guy who seems to be consensus top-16. Granted there's a bunch of guys clustered together in that range, but still...
socrates
Footballguy
In my PPR league, Crabtree finished as the #12 wideout last season and #17 in 2015, so a top 16 finish seems like a fair projection. On my own board, I have Crabtree ranked 20, still well ahead of Tyrell Williams, who I have adjusted up to 32 since the recent Mike Williams news.
I think it is reasonable to project a slight decline in Crabtree's numbers. Crabtree has eclipsed Cooper in targets, receptions and TDs each of the past two seasons (Cooper has had more yards). That distribution could change this season. Moreover, if (speculation only) Megatron finds a way onto the Raiders' roster, that will affect Crabtree's share of the offense. I don't know that anyone is making a downward adjustment to Crabtree's projected numbers on the outlying chance Calvin Johnson unretires and lands in Oakland (I am certainly not), but if I had to choose between Crabtree and another player ranked similarly, that could be a factor if I were drafting today.
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socrates
Footballguy
I am eager to see how a healthy Keenan Allen running opposite Tyrell Williams will affect his numbers. Allen will arguably draw opposing defense's best defender(s), and defenses will have to account for Gates and/or Henry, leaving Tyrell running single covered likely against the defense's second corner. That is the same arrangement that has benefitted Crabtree lining up opposite Cooper. Tyrell Williams could continue to thrive in what promises to be one of the more potent offenses in the NFL. Tyrell Williams had the kind of season last year that Keenan Allen owners have only dreamed about so far, and it should surprise nobody if Tyrell actually leads the team in receptions and yards.
Zyphros
Footballguy
All through the year I was so happy to own him when I grabbed him off waivers and maybe my bias is showing but why can't he be a #1 on a new team when FA hits? Dude is a RFA in '18 so hold for now even with the Mike Williams injury, let him duplicate or improve on last year and watch his value skyrocket. I can't imagine him doing worse with a healthy Keenan on the other side of him to take coverage away.
Tau837
Footballguy
1. Allen will likely work more heavily out of the slot this year, which should negate many opponents from shadowing him with their best CB and also should limit the double coverage he faces. So that possible benefit for Tyrell is likely overstated here.
2. I have thrown out target breakdowns elsewhere. IMO Tyrell will be under 100 targets this season unless Allen misses 4+ games. That will cap his production.
3. Consequently, IMO the only way Tyrell leads the team in receptions is if Allen misses 4+ games.
4. Allen's rookie season was better than Tyrell's 2016 season, so your "dreamed about" statement is wrong.
All that said, I like Tyrell's talent. I view him as a top 30-ish dynasty WR. But his opportunity could be limited this year if Rivers' targets are healthier overall. Certainly, Mike W's current back situation might help, but there is still a lot of competition for targets even without him.
Tau837
Footballguy
From a NFL perspective, he should perform better. He had a lot of fundamental issues last season (route running, contested balls, back shoulder throws, etc.). Now he has a season of experience and a full offseason with a defined role in the offense to study film and work to improve.
However, he should get a lot fewer than the 119 targets he had last year, especially if he is playing all season with a healthy Keenan.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Interesting, he is listed as having the 11th best contested catch rate in the NFL last year.
3optic
Footballguy
Totally agree with your assessment. I'd say contested balls and River's interception rate when targeting Tyrell are the #1 reason Mike Williams was drafted but would think TW will seize opportunity to upgrade his ability in that area. He's consistently overachieved in so many other regards.
3optic
Footballguy
That is interesting. Maybe it's the interception rate that bothered coaches last year.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I don't know exactly how much a catch needs to be contested for the people tracking that to count it as obviously not all contested catches are equal.
3optic
Footballguy
Indeed. Also we are talking about highly biased individuals watching from the sideline. All it takes is a Group Thought that Tyrell should have brought down a ball that was intercepted in a few high leverage situations.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right, so I don't go overboard in trusting those type of stats, but I do think they are useful and give you an idea of how the player played.
3optic
Footballguy
Absolutely. And it's also very possible the coaches were caught up in an emotional reaction and looking for a scapegoat.. particularly one with a later round pedigree.
I only speculate about this based on Mike Clay anecdote. Take it with standard grain of salt.
https://twitter.com/MikeClayNFL/status/870467006256041985
socrates
Footballguy
Keenan Allen's rookie season (2013) he had 105 targets, 71 receptions for 1,046 yards and 8 TDs
Tyrell Williams 2016 season he had 119 targets, 69 receptions for 1,059 yards and 7 TDs
Those are essentially equal numbers. The problem for Keenan Allen is that his success was back in 2013. Since then, he has failed to reach 800 yards in a season, and he has no more than 4 TDs in a season. I understand that injuries have limited him.
I have Allen projected as the team's top receiver. I have him ranked as my #25 receiver. I have moved Tyrell Williams up in my rankings with the news about Mike Williams, but I still have him at 32 (up from 36). I have Williams projected with more yards, and Allen projected with more receptions and TDs.
Tau837
Footballguy
Good post. On the first part, Allen put up those numbers in 15 games, compared to 16 for Tyrell. His line was also more efficient (CR, YPT, first downs). Tyrell had more big plays, though (20+ and 40+). Agree that 2013 season for Allen now seems like ancient history...
Tau837
Footballguy
Having watched all of his games last season, that is surprising. I commented on it in this forum periodically during last season, and I do think he got better as the season went on.
But 11th best makes it sound like a strength, which it definitely wasn't. At least, that isn't what I saw. I commented multiple times last season that he wasn't playing up to his size and physical ability.
Rivers used to be known for throwing it up for VJax and Floyd and trusting them to either win the contested catch or break it up. I did not see that trust in Tyrell last season, and they really did not throw deep to him often; most of his big plays were shorter throws with a lot of YAC.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
But Allen has been incredibly inefficient. Add in Henry, Williams and Gordon and I think he's vastly overrated and injuries have nothing to do with it. The targets will plummet and I'd expect more of wr3 numbers.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I'm a bit confused, so clarify some things for me:
Wasn't he the WR1 last year, and consequently was drawing at least some CB1 coverage, if not the majority of it?
He's only 24. Isn't he capable of getting better?
So why couldn't he have a better year than last year? Thanks. I'll hang up and listen.
Wasn't he the WR1 last year, and consequently was drawing at least some CB1 coverage, if not the majority of it?
He's only 24. Isn't he capable of getting better?
So why couldn't he have a better year than last year? Thanks. I'll hang up and listen.
Tau837
Footballguy
When has he been inefficient? Cite some basis for this that properly accounts for his injuries.
Tau837
Footballguy
He should get better. But he was the WR1 last year by necessity because WR1 Allen was lost for the season, WR2 Benjamin was playing through a PCL injury, and WR3 Stevie Johnson was lost for the season. Williams was the WR4 before all that and was forced into the WR1 role by necessity. He did well all things considered, but also showed a lot of flaws that hurt the offense at times. Hence, with the return of healthy Allen and Benjamin plus drafting of Mike Williams (who might not be healthy), Tyrell is pushed back down the depth chart.
"Couldn't" he have a better year? Yes, he could. If the team suffers multiple injuries ahead of him again, he could become the de facto WR1 again.
Should he be expected to have a better year? No.
rschroeder1
Footballguy
@Just Win Baby thanks for the in-depth analysis about the Chargers. I guess I'm curious about how Tyrell fits in with the Chargers' current situation. The team seems to be on the upswing but not necessarily in win-the-Super-Bowl-now mode. Since Tyrell is an RFA and not a UFA, does the team have a vested interest in his playing time and development? Or am I reading more into the situation than is really there?
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
So Benjamin and M Williams have proven they are already better than Ty Williams, and Ty can't possibly improve enough over last year to change the depth chart?
That's some pretty odd thinking IMO.
Tau837
Footballguy
Benjamin is currently WR2 to WR4, depending on where he stands relative to Tyrell and Mike Williams. IMO he will be released after 2017, barring a monster bounceback season.
Inman is currently WR4 or WR5, depending on where he stands relative to Mike Williams. (And remember, he is the best blocking WR on the roster, which may be even more important to new HC Anthony Lynn than it was to the previous regime.) He is a UFA after 2017 and could easily be gone.
That suggests that the Chargers will have Allen and Mike Williams locked in entering the 2018 offseason, but no other WRs. I could see them bringing back Tyrell, but only if it was at WR3 price... after all, they just drafted Mike Williams at 1.7 and gave Allen a $45M extension. It seems more likely that they would settle with Inman and let Tyrell go, assuming other teams are willing to pay more for Tyrell.
I don't think that means the Chargers aren't 'invested' in Tyrell's devlopment. I think they want to win now, and he can help them do that as their WR2 this season. I just don't expect that role to be as fantasy relevant as some others do here.
Tau837
Footballguy
I never said he "can't possibly improve" over last year. In fact, in my last response to you, I acknowledged that he could have a better year, but also stated my opinion that it isn't likely and stated reasons for that. You are free to disagree.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:I never said he "can't possibly improve" over last year. In fact, in my last response to you, I acknowledged that he could have a better year, but also stated my opinion that it isn't likely and stated reasons for that. You are free to disagree.
Yeah you did say that, after implying that he would drop back to WR4 and require multiple injuries in front of him to put up any decent numbers. Again, also implying that his game was behind both Benjamin's and M Williams' as well as Allen and would continue to remain that way.
This kid is entering his third year after coming into the NFL as a raw small school WR. I see him still in his learning curve with a ways to go, yet despite that still managed to put up a very strong season last year. You think SD is going to lowball him in favor of Inman? Like I said earlier - odd. Allen in the slot with the Williams on the outside could be prolific. If anyone in that group is an afterthought, it's Benjamin followed closely by Inman. Benjamin has been in the league 5 years already, hasn't had a year like Williams' 2nd year yet, and is looking at returning punts this year.
M Williams will be playing on a rookie contract for a while. There should be plenty of salary room for a guy like Ty Williams if he does in fact improve.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Just to be crystal clear, I expect Tyrell to be WR2 for the Chargers this season. IMO that will result in a considerable reduction in targets for him this season, barring significant injuries to other targets. This is because he will share targets with WR1 Allen, WR2/3 Benjamin, WR 4/5 Inman, WR ? Mike Williams, TE1 Henry, TE2 Gates, RB1 Gordon, and RB2+ Oliver, et al. Again:Just Win Baby said:I never said he "can't possibly improve" over last year. In fact, in my last response to you, I acknowledged that he could have a better year, but also stated my opinion that it isn't likely and stated reasons for that. You are free to disagree.
Yeah you did say that, after implying that he would drop back to WR4 and require multiple injuries in front of him to do it. Again, also implying that his game was behind both Benjamin's and M Williams' as well as Allen and would continue to remain that way.
jtd13
Footballguy
Yeah he'll be an RFA. They can tender him at a 2nd round level, which was less than $3m for other WRs who got that tag this year. Maybe he has a really great year and someone thinks he is worth the 2nd, but odds are he'll be on the roster in 2018. I agree with JWB that it's unlikely they invest a long term deal in him unless one of Allen or MW hasn't panned out over the next 2 seasons.bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Not getting the love for Benjamin at all. It appears that Allen's move to the slot is pushing him onto the punt team. What am I missing here? I'll admit I've never thought much of the guy.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Benjamin has 1 role. It's an important one but one that doesn't require a high level of targets: stretch the D vertically
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Tyrell's book still has a lot of chapters. Chapter 1 of course is Tyrell, but chapter 2 is based on Keenan Allen. LAC are by no means married to Allen long term. Allen's dead money is only $5.7M after this year and $3.8M in 2019. He's not a difficult cut if they end up having to make a financial decision between Allen and Tyrell. They probably don't have to make that decision in 2018 though because Tyrell is an RFA and they can offer him a 1st round tender to help ward off any suitors. That's only about $4M so a pretty minor commitment. Only if Allen has a great bounceback and Tyrell lights it up and gets a monster RFA offer will they be pressed to keep both in 2018.
Mike WIlliams doesn't factor in yet. His rookie deal is only $3-5M a year, nothing that handcuffs the team at the position. If he were to light it up it might be tempting to let someone go and have Mike Williams step in but it doesn't look like his back is going to let that option manifest in 2017.
Mike WIlliams doesn't factor in yet. His rookie deal is only $3-5M a year, nothing that handcuffs the team at the position. If he were to light it up it might be tempting to let someone go and have Mike Williams step in but it doesn't look like his back is going to let that option manifest in 2017.
3optic
Footballguy
Been thinking about this in regards to his percieved flaws..Just Win Baby said:
All players have flaws, yes? Especially young players and Tyrell is a UDFA who was dominant at times (remebering his often extrodinary YAC particularly on crossing routes, his sideline play.. nothing in front of me at this moment.. ahem). This in his 1st start for his 2nd year on the team. For any young wideout in that position, his 2016 would have to be considered a success regardless of draft capitol or pedigree, no?
Why is there such a stiff standard for this player who's only shown an ability to improve and produce whenever called upon. It's not as if he was outperformed by the other vets on the team. He just took the #1 and held it over the course of the season. Why isn't the question "where does he win?" and why not give him a pass on making mistakes as most young recievers do?
This is obviously rhetorical and, I hope a little annoying. It all goes to draft capital and team management group think (inspired by fear of looking stupid, ignoant team ownership.. the usual stuff).
Williams has elite athleticism and has produced when called upon. If Corey Coleman or Kevin White had seasons like he did, they'd be 1st round start up picks.
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Tau837
Footballguy
As I said previously, IMO Benjamin is a virtual lock to be released after 2017. But Benjamin will get some targets in 2017, and he will probably get more deep targets than any other WR. So he is relevant to this discussion, since those are targets that won't go to Tyrell. In 2018, Tyrell should be the primary deep threat, assuming the Chargers keep him (i.e., assuming no other team gives him such a big RFA offer that the Chargers choose not to match).
Tau837
Footballguy
Williams was forced into a WR1 role due to circumstances, performed well at some things, and struggled with others. I think overall his season was definitely a success.
Can you point out this "stiff standard" people are holding him to in this thread?
Williams absolutely did not produce whenever called upon. At times, he ran the wrong routes, ran poor routes, did not adjust to the ball well, and made simple mistakes like running through instead of sitting down in a zone. I have been watching the Chargers for all of Rivers' career, and I never saw him get on another player as often as he got on Williams last season for his mistakes. Some of his mistakes cost the team TDs (I can think of at least 2 times) and others led to interceptions... at least 6 of Rivers' 21 interceptions were targeting Williams, and I would put responsibility on most of those on Williams.
I have already said that I expect him to get better. With that year of experience behind him and a full offseason with a defined role in the offense, I assume he will correct a lot of those mistakes and hopefully he will be more comfortable playing up to his size and athleticism. From a NFL perspective, he should be a better player for the Chargers this season.
Fantasy perspective is different. As of right now, Allen is expected to be healthy this season. That makes him the WR1, and he will lead the team in targets if he stays healthy. That pushes Williams to WR2. Combine that with new HC Anthony Lynn being known for strong running games and thus the likelihood of fewer pass attempts, and Williams is a virtual lock to get fewer targets, probably by a large margin. Williams had 119 targets last season but IMO will be challenged to get 90 this year unless there are serious injuries to other key targets that again force targets to Tyrell.
Based on this thread, it seems pretty likely that Tyrell will be overdrafted this season.
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3optic
Footballguy
Easy there. i was refering to team management.
This isn't really even directed at you. I'm just having thoughts...
My mistake for using *whenever*. Should have said *when* as in for the whole season. I watched the Chargers some, probably not as much as you. I'm aware he made mistakes. I think the overreaction on the part of team oaches is *He cost us the game!* and not *this rash of injuries some of which that have lead us to rely on this young reciever has jeapordized our season!* I'm guessing he didn't get the volume of snaps and 1st team work as a rookie, yet when he started late in the year he burned the Broncos secondary for a long score.
I don't know how much more Rivers got on Tyrell than anyone else but it's understandable given the youth of Williams coupled with how much he was asked to do.
I realze youre not disparaging the player or otherwise being a meanie.
Fair points. I have had him in the WR 3/fex area. I don't do projections because I am too lazy. I like Rich Hibrar's though: 63 for 932 and 6. You make a good point about the risks. Of course nearly every WR in this range comes with substantial risk.
My main point was that there is far too much weight placed on pedigree.. and furthermore Mike Williams was a terrible pick at #7 overall. I mean, good God man.. seriously?
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Maybe I'm unreasonably high on Travis Benjamin in that while I don't think he will be noteworthy in fantasy, I think he'll be good enough to keep Tyrell from WR2 (ppg) numbers unless Rivers just goes nuts this year.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I don't see how he sees more than 100 targets. For the same reason that I don't see realistic WR1 upside for Allen, I don't see realistic WR2 upside for Williams.
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Insoxicated
I'm with you on him... IMO He's at least a solid flex play until Mike Williams comes back... and while projecting injuries is a dice roll at best, I don't think it's unreasonable to factor in an above average chance Allen misses some time.
beerbuff
Footballguy
I wouldn't call it unreasonable but one of two things would need to happen. A. Keenan gets hurt again or B. It takes Williams longer than expected to get on the field. Even with Williams coming back Tyrell could shut him out if he is performing well. In my draft last weekend I picked him up as my WR5 and so am pretty happy with his value but I would not draft him as a WR2 even if you think he is going to finish there.
