I understand not liking a player, but McKinnon was RB17 last season, on an offense that he wasn't featured in, with all the issues that you have described. So now he is going to a new, more innovative offense, where he will be featured (at least 1a of 2 man rbcc) and you have him dropping 5 spots?
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Your 5 "MUST HAVES" in redraft for 2018 (1 Viewer)
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Over the past 5 seasons, Stafford has ranked QB4, 15, 8, 7, 6 in terms of total fantasy points each season. In terms of fantasy ppg (based on QBs that played in at least 8 games), he ranked 6, 18, 11, 8, and 8 over the last 5 years. His ADP right now is QB10. For people that end up with him, I think you could do a lot worse, As long as people don't expect him to make a huge leap, you'll get what you pay for and maybe a little extra. Bear in mind, though, that over the past 5 years he ranks 2nd in total attempts (to Brees) but 6th in total fantasy points . . . meaning that if his passing volume drops, he hasn't been as efficient as some other QBs and sheer volume may not carry the day.
Love Hogan. He was WR10 after week 8 last season and basically didn't play the rest of the year. Cooks is now gone and Edelman is coming back from an injury/suspension. FBGs have him at WR39???
leftcoastguy7
Footballguy
One of either RBs Clement PHI or Cohen CHI --- one or both of these guys will outpace their draft positions. Especially in PPR. I get them mixed up sometimes.
RB Kenyan Drake MIA - I hate the idea of taking a Dolphin, but I was impressed with Drake at the end of last year. He has a top elusiveness rating.
WR Michael Thomas NO - Young, injury free, rock solid consistency
WR Robby Anderson NYJ - if he can stay out of jail I am a believer
TE Engram NYG - I think the return of Beckham and the addition of Barkley actually add to his value.
RB Kenyan Drake MIA - I hate the idea of taking a Dolphin, but I was impressed with Drake at the end of last year. He has a top elusiveness rating.
WR Michael Thomas NO - Young, injury free, rock solid consistency
WR Robby Anderson NYJ - if he can stay out of jail I am a believer
TE Engram NYG - I think the return of Beckham and the addition of Barkley actually add to his value.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve taken Stanford where I could for years as a QBFF for all the reasons the good doctor pointed out.
Unfortunately when I needed him most Stanford would often let me down.
That all said, with arguably his best weapons in years, with what should be an emerging Galloday I am for sure going to target Stanford in the later rounds as a QB1 or QB2 where I grab a couple guys and hope for the best.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve seen plenty of Breida & Williams and could not disagree more.
PPR there’s no way McKinnon is RB22. Dudes gonna catch 60-70 balls out of the backfield. The receptions alone will put him top 12.
No offense but I find that a bit out there as a prediction, barring injury.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
With you on Collins. I’m a fan and almost listed him. A little worried about how crowded that backfield is with Dixon, wh they’re high on & Allen, who’s shown flashes as well. Collins IMO is the superior back, but hars to bank on him until we know his carries.
With you on Cook. No disagreement. I’m a fan.
Kerryon Johnson - Riddick is still there, and I’ve been trying to guess a DET breakout RB for years. From what I understand, the OC loves running a committee backfield. He’s said so several times. So I’m not convinced there will be a feature back in DET. Injuries happen though so time will tell if he gets the touches.
I don’t know enough about Miller yet but I’m curious to see how he looks.
Juju’s limitation is that he put up ridiculous production on not a whole lot of touches, which seems unsustainable. I love him- he’s a beast. But the Steeler want to run the ball a ton, and I don’t see Juju getting more than 4-5 catches a game. With ~70 receptions I think he’s a better WR3 than WR2, and much better in non-PPR.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
One no one’s mentioned yet I don’t think is Mark Ingram.
Yeah - he’s out with a suspension. That’s why his ADP is crazy low.
But the production he’ll give you when he plays is RB1-worthy.
Kamura is a 1st round pick (which I think is a bit high) but Ingram will give you production close to that at a fraction of he price. If I can make Ingram my RB3-4 I’m fully on board.
Yeah - he’s out with a suspension. That’s why his ADP is crazy low.
But the production he’ll give you when he plays is RB1-worthy.
Kamura is a 1st round pick (which I think is a bit high) but Ingram will give you production close to that at a fraction of he price. If I can make Ingram my RB3-4 I’m fully on board.
Genester
Footballguy
So, for me, Fournette is a classic enigma. His situation is fantastic: excellent talent, strong O-Line, strong D, coach committed to the run, and limited passing game. There's no question he will do well if he stays on the field.
At the same time, his lingering ankle injury is well documented, he's missed games already, and several docs have weighed in saying it won't get any better, and possibly will limit his career in the long-term. If you pick him early on in your drafts, can you afford to have him miss 2-3 games (or more)?
Leaving my non Titans homer rule and drafting Taylor, Rishard, and Henry. I think they are way better than their ADP.
Richie Anderson usually is good enough for a key reserve and his adp is very low.
Spencer Ware isn't chopped liver so he is my last pick lately. Maybe he is not as good as last year's rookie but I will wait and see how much time he gets
Richie Anderson usually is good enough for a key reserve and his adp is very low.
Spencer Ware isn't chopped liver so he is my last pick lately. Maybe he is not as good as last year's rookie but I will wait and see how much time he gets
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The other side is pretending every back will play 100% of games and he is the only RB that will be injured. You either like him or you don't; everything else is a spin- he has the talent, opportunity, and production
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Oh yeah...I do that all the time too. You'd think I'd learnDude was a PPR beast for a spell there. Caught 88 balls in 2000.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Edelman has an ADP of WR29 and 93 overall in PPR leagues. We know he is missing the first four games.Jayded said:
He’s been less than stellar in trainIng camp so far and by his own admission has said his legs are dead, he’s not in football shape, and he has a long way to go to get back to where he was.
Not sure he can do that not practicing or playing starting in Week 1. I am a huge JE11 fan and even I won’t touch him. He’s getting drafted ahead of Hogan, which makes no sense to me. Hogan seems like a much better option.
Between his age, his injury, and his suspension, Edelman should be getting drafted way later than he is. Missing 4 games and then taking another 6 games to get back into things is not worth the draft capital it was lol take roster him.
Fireinside
Footballguy
Robby Anderson - 16th best wr last year, now getting better role and QB.
Chris Carson - It's the seahawks and rookie is always a rookie and with Pete you never know, cheap/late guy to have.
Trey Burton - #2 wr as TE, playing the Kelce role with the same coordinator. Got paid well and has been good on the field every time.
Will Fuller - another guy who is extremely cheap/late and played excellent with Watson. Love him.
Calvin Cook - I think he's right behind the best (Bell/Gurley/D.JohnsonEzekiel) and you can get him easily. I also think he will have better points than some of those who was mentioned here.
Chris Carson - It's the seahawks and rookie is always a rookie and with Pete you never know, cheap/late guy to have.
Trey Burton - #2 wr as TE, playing the Kelce role with the same coordinator. Got paid well and has been good on the field every time.
Will Fuller - another guy who is extremely cheap/late and played excellent with Watson. Love him.
Calvin Cook - I think he's right behind the best (Bell/Gurley/D.JohnsonEzekiel) and you can get him easily. I also think he will have better points than some of those who was mentioned here.
ponchsox
Footballguy
i really have never been impressed by mckinnon's ability to run the ball.... he has been an effective receiver out of the backfield, but as a runner i dont see it with him.... i understand his situation is very good, i just think it would be foolish to expect him to outperform his ADP.
Fireinside
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
I like him and would like to get him but I won't own him in a single league at that price. He needs to be a top ten back just to justify the pick. He hasn't even been named the week one starter yet, has he? I get that he's the Shanahan back but people thought Tevin Coleman was the Shanahan back a few years ago and oops.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Here are a few of mine, at each position...
QB - Big Ben and Rivers - both are better suited for 6pt passing TD leagues, but this consistent duo has averaged about 4300/30 for 10 straight yrs. If I miss out on the higher ranked QB's, I find myself drafting these guys in back-to-back later rounds. Just know you aint getting squat for rushing (Rivers actually had negative yards last year). I can pretty much guarantee one of these guys will be on my team, if not both.
RB - Kerryon Johnson - LeGarrette Blount will be turning 32 this season, and he is not the TD vulture everyone is making him out to be. His 18 TD's with the Patriots in 2016 were an aberration, as evidenced by last year's total of 2 on 173 carries in Philly. Also, he has almost no value as a receiver, getting only 23 targets in the last 3 years. Theo Riddick is a great pass-catching RB, and will surely see playing time, but he is no real threat as a runner (3.4 YPC). Lastly, we have Ameer Abdullah and his 3.3 YPC to contend with. I have Kerryon's floor at around 200 touches / 1000 yards / 5 TD's, and when DET sees what they've got, his ceiling is much higher. His ADP has him around RB36, making him a very late RB3 or early RB4. I have been able to draft him consistently as my RB4, but I think he will have RB2 stats by year's end.
WR - Chris Hogan - At his current ADP of around WR38, he is true value hardware. Cooks, Edelman, and Welker have all become fantasy starters with Brady at the helm. This year, it's Hogan's turn. I don't think for one second that Hogan is a special talent, but he is gonna be Brady's go-to WR this year (talent vs opportunity).
TE - Jordan Reed - his ADP has factored in his likelihood of injury more than any player this year, and rightfully so. Draft him late, then either take a TE2, or play the waiver wire WHEN he goes down. For the games he is on the field (I didn't say healthy, I said on the field), he will produce as a top tier TE. He is not for the squeamish fantasy owner, or one that tends to submit their lineups and forget it.
QB - Big Ben and Rivers - both are better suited for 6pt passing TD leagues, but this consistent duo has averaged about 4300/30 for 10 straight yrs. If I miss out on the higher ranked QB's, I find myself drafting these guys in back-to-back later rounds. Just know you aint getting squat for rushing (Rivers actually had negative yards last year). I can pretty much guarantee one of these guys will be on my team, if not both.
RB - Kerryon Johnson - LeGarrette Blount will be turning 32 this season, and he is not the TD vulture everyone is making him out to be. His 18 TD's with the Patriots in 2016 were an aberration, as evidenced by last year's total of 2 on 173 carries in Philly. Also, he has almost no value as a receiver, getting only 23 targets in the last 3 years. Theo Riddick is a great pass-catching RB, and will surely see playing time, but he is no real threat as a runner (3.4 YPC). Lastly, we have Ameer Abdullah and his 3.3 YPC to contend with. I have Kerryon's floor at around 200 touches / 1000 yards / 5 TD's, and when DET sees what they've got, his ceiling is much higher. His ADP has him around RB36, making him a very late RB3 or early RB4. I have been able to draft him consistently as my RB4, but I think he will have RB2 stats by year's end.
WR - Chris Hogan - At his current ADP of around WR38, he is true value hardware. Cooks, Edelman, and Welker have all become fantasy starters with Brady at the helm. This year, it's Hogan's turn. I don't think for one second that Hogan is a special talent, but he is gonna be Brady's go-to WR this year (talent vs opportunity).
TE - Jordan Reed - his ADP has factored in his likelihood of injury more than any player this year, and rightfully so. Draft him late, then either take a TE2, or play the waiver wire WHEN he goes down. For the games he is on the field (I didn't say healthy, I said on the field), he will produce as a top tier TE. He is not for the squeamish fantasy owner, or one that tends to submit their lineups and forget it.
ZWK
Footballguy
2.11 Rob Gronkowski - less competition for targets gives him even more upside
6.03 Russell Wilson - last year's top fantasy QB falling to round 6
7.11 Isaiah Crowell - starting RB who could wind up with a big workload with Powell aging and McGuire injured
8.06 Robby Anderson - plenty of upside for the 3rd year WR who was a WR2 last year
13.07 Stephen Gostkowski - consistently provides a nice ~2ppg edge over the field at kicker, which is more than you usually get in the late rounds of the draft
Though really there's no such thing as "must have" since there are often a few guys that I like at any point in the draft and I like to play chicken with ADP.
Let's play two: Jarvis Landry (4.12), DJ Moore (10.08), Devontae Booker (11.12), Tyler Eifert (12.09), Jameis Winston (14.04)
6.03 Russell Wilson - last year's top fantasy QB falling to round 6
7.11 Isaiah Crowell - starting RB who could wind up with a big workload with Powell aging and McGuire injured
8.06 Robby Anderson - plenty of upside for the 3rd year WR who was a WR2 last year
13.07 Stephen Gostkowski - consistently provides a nice ~2ppg edge over the field at kicker, which is more than you usually get in the late rounds of the draft
Though really there's no such thing as "must have" since there are often a few guys that I like at any point in the draft and I like to play chicken with ADP.
Let's play two: Jarvis Landry (4.12), DJ Moore (10.08), Devontae Booker (11.12), Tyler Eifert (12.09), Jameis Winston (14.04)
Snorkelson
Footballguy
Cold beer
snacks
friends
skooma
wifi
snacks
friends
skooma
wifi
Genester
Footballguy
Respectfully, I don't understand your point. Sure, anyone can be injured any time, that's life.
Fournette had HAS his final year at LSU, with several re-aggravations. He lost games in his first NFL season due to injury. The doctors are saying this is a chronic condition that will not improve and can flare up at any time, given the stress required on the ankle. This is far from a fluke chance, that is a known risk. I was asking how folks are factoring it into their decisions on Fournette. I think its folly to ignore a known thing completely - the real question is how much does this discount Fournette's value.
ponchsox
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
I would factor it into my decision by closely monitoring the depth chart, and making sure I either draft his cuff, or make sure I am first on the waiver wire. Currently, I think that role goes to TJ Yeldon.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I'd even take Gronk 2.3ZWK said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
over anyone in the field - not the entire field.And just how is he doing this? Either he has to be kicking 80 yard FG's, or NE has to score 30+ more TD's than the rest of the league.
BTW, I agree with all the rest
ZWK
Footballguy
The 2 ppg estimate comes from data in one of my dynasty leagues, where I compared the kicker points for the Gostkowski owner with the average kicker points for the other teams in the league over the past 7 seasons. You could probably get a similar estimate just by looking at the raw production, where Gostkowski has been near the top in XP attempts, FG attempts, and FG percentage. Although according to projections for this year the edge might be more in the 1 to 1.5 ppg range.And just how is he doing this? Either he has to be kicking 80 yard FG's, or NE has to score 30+ more TD's than the rest of the league.ZWK said:
BTW, I agree with all the rest
Hawkeye21
Footballguy
Last year in Denver was terrible for the whole team. The other years he's been in Denver he's averaged almost 1200 yards and 7 TDs.
beerbuff
Footballguy
My 5 are:
Gronk- as Bloom has discussed should have a great start to the year with Edelman out
DeShawn Watson- Even with regression he will have weeks where he blows people away
Ryan Grant- at his ADP he is a steal especially with Cain gone.
Ricky Seals-Jones - Besides Fitz they don't have anyone standing out to catch the ball
Lamar Miller- I don't think Foreman will be back anytime soon and when he does he may be limited.
Gronk- as Bloom has discussed should have a great start to the year with Edelman out
DeShawn Watson- Even with regression he will have weeks where he blows people away
Ryan Grant- at his ADP he is a steal especially with Cain gone.
Ricky Seals-Jones - Besides Fitz they don't have anyone standing out to catch the ball
Lamar Miller- I don't think Foreman will be back anytime soon and when he does he may be limited.
