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Your 5 "MUST HAVES" in redraft for 2018 (1 Viewer)

1. Drew Brees. I get it - the Saints play defense now. They run a lot. He still had a great season, and I think his TD numbers are bound to rise to the 35-40 range making him a stellar value given his ADP.  If I reach for a QB in the 5-6 round. he’ll be the one. 

2. McKinnon going at the middle-end of the 2nd is highway robbery. Shannahan turned Freeman into a rushing/receiving stud, and I see a top 4 RB performance coming the way the Niners offense is shaping up. Because of his stellar receiving ability he’s essentially game-flow proof, and he’s got a cheap handcuff who isn’t a big threat to carries. 

3. Pierre Garçon - he’s at an ADP I’d expect given his missed time, but IMO he’ll pay dividends as a WR3/4 on your roster. If healthy he’s a top 20 PPR guy. Garapolo did so much with underwhealming receivers, he’s gonna looove throwing to Pierre. 100 receptions wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll project 85/950/7 for the frenchman. 

4. Randal Cobb - for the ADP I love him as a WR3 & will be locking him up where I can. 

5. Dalvin Cook - didn’t work out for me last year, but ACLs are tough to predict. His performance was eye popping when he played, and the Vikings should be even more explosive on offense to open even more holes. And now McKinnon’s gone to SF. Cook isn’t wearing a brace, and has said he’s 100% & doesn’t intend to. We’ll see how he looks, but enough time since the injury & he’s a hard worker. I wouldn’t be shocked by a top 5 RB performance at the 1.10-2.04 range. I’d easily take him over Hunt at the ADP and y’all know I have man-love for Hunt :wub:   (just not in that crowded backfield & with an unknown at QB). 
Not sure how you managed to pick a list of all guys I probably won't target or really look at.

Brees threw 140 fewer passes, 900 fewer yards, and 14 fewer TD's and has struggled playing on the road in recent seasons. He ranked as fantasy QB10 and was one less TD away from being the QB13 last year. Why would he suddenly go back to the highest TD he's had in 6 years?

RBs in Shannahan's system have had some success, but he's had his fair share of misses. Highest ranking RB from year to year:

2008 - Slaton (RB6)
2009 - Slaton (32)
2010 - Torain (33)
2011 - Helu (31)
2012 - Morris (5)
2013 - Morris (15)
2014 - Crowell (27)
2015 - Freeman (1)
2016 - Freeman (6)
2017 - Hyde (11)

I am not ready to anoint Jimmy G as the second coming yet, so I don't think the offense will much resemble that of the 2016 Falcons. McKinnon as a bell cow is mostly unproven (although he did well in relief of Cook last year). He's had 20 carries once in his career.

Garcon has had 80 receptions in a year once. If he played a whole season last year, he was trending for 80/1000 (with 0 TD) . . . but that was without Garoppolo. Garcon has had 1 Top 20 season even in PPR over his 10 year career.

I've owned Cobb for years and he is a disappointment waiting to happen. He's had 2 strong seasons and disappeared in 4 others (with one in the middle). Over the past 3 seasons, he's ranked 45th in fantasy ppg.

Cook may eventually be a top producing back, but other than ADP the track record for guys coming off of ACL tears isn't great first year back.

For me, all of those guys need so many things to break their way that I doubt I would consider them in a redraft league because someone else will take them way before I would.

 
1. Drew Brees. I get it - the Saints play defense now. They run a lot. He still had a great season, and I think his TD numbers are bound to rise to the 35-40 range making him a stellar value given his ADP.  If I reach for a QB in the 5-6 round. he’ll be the one. 

2. McKinnon going at the middle-end of the 2nd is highway robbery. Shannahan turned Freeman into a rushing/receiving stud, and I see a top 4 RB performance coming the way the Niners offense is shaping up. Because of his stellar receiving ability he’s essentially game-flow proof, and he’s got a cheap handcuff who isn’t a big threat to carries. 

3. Pierre Garçon - he’s at an ADP I’d expect given his missed time, but IMO he’ll pay dividends as a WR3/4 on your roster. If healthy he’s a top 20 PPR guy. Garapolo did so much with underwhealming receivers, he’s gonna looove throwing to Pierre. 100 receptions wouldn’t shock me, but I’ll project 85/950/7 for the frenchman. 

4. Randal Cobb - for the ADP I love him as a WR3 & will be locking him up where I can. 

5. Dalvin Cook - didn’t work out for me last year, but ACLs are tough to predict. His performance was eye popping when he played, and the Vikings should be even more explosive on offense to open even more holes. And now McKinnon’s gone to SF. Cook isn’t wearing a brace, and has said he’s 100% & doesn’t intend to. We’ll see how he looks, but enough time since the injury & he’s a hard worker. I wouldn’t be shocked by a top 5 RB performance at the 1.10-2.04 range. I’d easily take him over Hunt at the ADP and y’all know I have man-love for Hunt :wub:   (just not in that crowded backfield & with an unknown at QB). 
Brees - he'll bounce back some, but QB is soooo deep

McKinnon - my most hated ADP

Garcon - the #2 with Goodwin peaking

Cobb - I'm with you on one!!

Cook - priced about right

 
Omg enough of the slap fight. 

1) Hopkins - No matter the circumstances nothing changes with him. He gets an assload of targets and I think the threat of Watson holding the ball will open things up even more for him. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is #1 this year. 

2) Fitz - Another guy where I know what I’m getting. I can put him in my lineup and simply forget about it. Maybe won’t do as well as last year but from a consistency standpoint you won’t see any duds. You need some rocks in your lineup and he is the rock of the rocks. 

3) Dalvin Cook - Man crush. That’s pretty much it. Was devestated when he got hurt last year. I really like Gordon too so almost hoping one is off the board so I don’t have to choose. Brain says Gordon, heart says Cook. 

4) Marvin Jones - Big game Marvin will go nicely with Fitz. Have always been a Stafford fan and I think their running game may actually be halfway decent for once this year! So Marv should have long ### TD’s and my league we get a bonus. 

5) Jake Butt - I’ve had Kelce on my team since he came into the league and he is slowly creeping up my board to the point I won’t be able to keep him any longer. Butt will be his replacement. A bit biased as a Michigan fan but this kid can catch anything. I think Denver will steadily improve over the next 5-10 years and I like that I can grab him at the end of the draft. 

Kamara is a keeper otherwise he would be on this list if not solely for how much I love watching him play. 
Hopkins - priced about right 

Fitz - great value

Cook - priced about right

M. Jones - great for best balls and bonus leagues, terrible otherwise

Butt - decent risk/reward

 
Says the guy acting like one rep solves this discussion. I sure hope you don't think I’m the authority on this as I’ve never claimed to express anything other than my opinion on this. Btw that carry was already covered earlier in this thread. Welcome though!
Really, when?  All the discussion I see is about OTAs.

I'd say the first GL carry with the first team is significant.

Opinions can be helpful.  Observations are more informative.  Opinions shouting down actual observations are the worst.

 
Not sure about this one. He was getting a little over eight targets/game last year but... Sounds like Pettis is going to be a factor sooner rather than later. Anyone have a feel for Shanahan restricting rookies ala John Fox? He upped Breida's PT as the season wore on.

I am so think Goodwin will take a jump in year two.

Not to mention Kittle.

Garcon will probably (possibly?) lead the team in targets but I think he is really capped by the youngsters. Maybe 800 yards and 5 TDs and that may be his upside.
Even at that projection he’s a solid WR4-5 for his current ADP. 

 
Not sure how you managed to pick a list of all guys I probably won't target or really look at.

Brees threw 140 fewer passes, 900 fewer yards, and 14 fewer TD's and has struggled playing on the road in recent seasons. He ranked as fantasy QB10 and was one less TD away from being the QB13 last year. Why would he suddenly go back to the highest TD he's had in 6 years?

RBs in Shannahan's system have had some success, but he's had his fair share of misses. Highest ranking RB from year to year:

2008 - Slaton (RB6)
2009 - Slaton (32)
2010 - Torain (33)
2011 - Helu (31)
2012 - Morris (5)
2013 - Morris (15)
2014 - Crowell (27)
2015 - Freeman (1)
2016 - Freeman (6)
2017 - Hyde (11)

I am not ready to anoint Jimmy G as the second coming yet, so I don't think the offense will much resemble that of the 2016 Falcons. McKinnon as a bell cow is mostly unproven (although he did well in relief of Cook last year). He's had 20 carries once in his career.

Garcon has had 80 receptions in a year once. If he played a whole season last year, he was trending for 80/1000 (with 0 TD) . . . but that was without Garoppolo. Garcon has had 1 Top 20 season even in PPR over his 10 year career.

I've owned Cobb for years and he is a disappointment waiting to happen. He's had 2 strong seasons and disappeared in 4 others (with one in the middle). Over the past 3 seasons, he's ranked 45th in fantasy ppg.

Cook may eventually be a top producing back, but other than ADP the track record for guys coming off of ACL tears isn't great first year back.

For me, all of those guys need so many things to break their way that I doubt I would consider them in a redraft league because someone else will take them way before I would.
I’m sure you’re not alone - it’s pribably why all of those players have favorable ADPs. 

I like to zig when everyone else zags. Some years it pays off. 

 
I’m sure you’re not alone - it’s pribably why all of those players have favorable ADPs. 

I like to zig when everyone else zags. Some years it pays off. 
I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Based on the ADP rankings on FBG, here are the ADP's of the players you mentioned.

Brees - QB6
Cook - RB10
McKinnon - RB13
Garcon - WR30
Cobb - WR39

To me, those aren't really "favorable." The only one that might tempt me is Cobb, but his past two seasons haven't been that great.

 
Really, when?  All the discussion I see is about OTAs.

I'd say the first GL carry with the first team is significant.

Opinions can be helpful.  Observations are more informative.  Opinions shouting down actual observations are the worst.
Ok and where would you rank the snark you flashed in your first post as far as helpfulness goes? I don’t expect Ajayi to get all of the goal line work or all of the practice reps there. I do expect he’ll be the main power formation runner. I feel pretty good about my assumption based on the write ups from yesterday that Ajayi got some GL work Wednesday.  Some disagree which is fine. I’ve always expressed to Amused that I appreciate his thoughts and links. If you think my interaction with him is shouting him down then message boards may not be your thing. Hope that HELPS.

edit- the coverage of Clement’s precious goal line carry was posted by Amused towards the end  of page 1

 
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Ok and where would you rank the snark you flashed in your first post as far as helpfulness goes? I don’t expect Ajayi to get all of the goal line work or all of the practice reps there. I do expect he’ll be the main power formation runner. I feel pretty good about my assumption based on the write ups from yesterday that Ajayi got some GL work Wednesday.  Some disagree which is fine. I’ve always expressed to Amused that I appreciate his thoughts and links. If you think my interaction with him is shouting him down then message boards may not be your thing. Hope that HELPS.

edit- the coverage of Clement’s precious goal line carry was posted by Amused towards the end  of page 1
Lol I guess I'd rank em like this:

Observations

Observations with snark

Helpful Opinions

Every other post in this thread

^your post that reads: I don't expect...I do expect...I feel pretty good...I've always expressed...I appreciate...If you think...

This post

Anyway, will be interesting to see how this backfield develops.  There's a lot of fantasy points to be had.

 
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Lol I guess I'd rank em like this:

Observations

Observations with snark

Helpful Opinions

Every other post in this thread

^your post that reads: I don't expect...I do expect...I feel pretty good...I've always expressed...I appreciate...If you think...

This post

Anyway, will be interesting to see how this backfield develops.  There's a lot of fantasy points to be had.
Ok then. Good talk.

 
McKinnon - I love his situation and having a QB defenses respect should give him room to run. 

Deshaun Watson & Will Fuller - I’m a big Texans fan and live in Texas. I got Hopkins last year and was the only believer. He will not likely be in my price range again, so I’ll look to the other Texans’ value pair and aim higher on Watson and circle back mid rounds and get Fuller. 

Emmanuel Sanders - Again in a great situation with an upgrade at QB. I’m buying all day if I get the opportunity. 

Kyle Rudolph - Had Gronk last year as well and would love to grab him again but if I assume I miss him, I love Cousins to Rudolph as a high value pick for ADP to production. 

Others I am high on: Brandon Cooks, Derrick Henry, Derrius Guice, Jamaal Williams, Julian Edelman

 
I get the feeling that people are going to have to pay a premium to land McKinnon. Wouldn't be surprised if he was a late first, early second by the time my Labor Day redraft rolls around.
Depends on preseason. If I were sitting at 12 I’d be glad to make him one of my 2 picks. 

 
I get the feeling that people are going to have to pay a premium to land McKinnon. Wouldn't be surprised if he was a late first, early second by the time my Labor Day redraft rolls around.
Well for those drafting on CBS Sportsline, he’s the 9th or 10th overall player in their default draft rankings. This is for ppr settings.

 
McKinnon - I love his situation and having a QB defenses respect should give him room to run. 

Deshaun Watson & Will Fuller - I’m a big Texans fan and live in Texas. I got Hopkins last year and was the only believer. He will not likely be in my price range again, so I’ll look to the other Texans’ value pair and aim higher on Watson and circle back mid rounds and get Fuller. 

Emmanuel Sanders - Again in a great situation with an upgrade at QB. I’m buying all day if I get the opportunity. 

Kyle Rudolph - Had Gronk last year as well and would love to grab him again but if I assume I miss him, I love Cousins to Rudolph as a high value pick for ADP to production. 

Others I am high on: Brandon Cooks, Derrick Henry, Derrius Guice, Jamaal Williams, Julian Edelman
I like a Thomas this year at his ADP. Sanders worries me. 

I’ve been hyping Rudolph for a while - this year feels like the year for him to have a really solid season. 

Obv I agree about McKinnon.

I worry about Watson - he played out of his mind & I don’t believe that’s sustainable. For one; the defense should be improved/healthy. For another, they will try to run a lot more, partly because of the defense being improved.

which reminds me of a guy I am high on - I’ll post that next.

anyway, to the rest:

Cooks - that’s the Todd Gurley show, and I’m not sure there’s that much deep passing to sustain Cooks as a WR2 or even WR3. And he’s expensive. I saw a lot of his play in NEP & came away unimpressed. 

Henry - I’m a fan. Lewis will also be a nice get this year, and about 1-3 rounds later. But Henry is likely to get 180+ carries and at his ADP that’s pretty solid. Sprinkle in his best case TD totals & he should be fair value. I just worry he’ll be boom or bust some weeks if game flow is more passing oriented. 

Edelman, Guice, Williams - I want to see them in preseason to better evaluate. 

 
Imma call this one 5A, but I am looking at Lamar Miller’s ADP and it’s pretty favorable as a boom or bust RB3-4.

A whole lot went wrong with that team last year, from game flow to OL to QB carousel...so that’s two straight years of Miller disappointing. But he’s hardly got any competition for carries & the Texans should be improved enough to feed him the ball 15-20 touches a game. I don’t think he’s top 10, but he could easily be a strong RB2 at a price that doesn’t tank you if he’s a miss. And his injured handcuff should be plenty cheap. 

 
Imma call this one 5A, but I am looking at Lamar Miller’s ADP and it’s pretty favorable as a boom or bust RB3-4.

A whole lot went wrong with that team last year, from game flow to OL to QB carousel...so that’s two straight years of Miller disappointing. But he’s hardly got any competition for carries & the Texans should be improved enough to feed him the ball 15-20 touches a game. I don’t think he’s top 10, but he could easily be a strong RB2 at a price that doesn’t tank you if he’s a miss. And his injured handcuff should be plenty cheap. 
I’ll agree with this. I’m not a big fan of Miller but where you can prob get him you could do a lot worse.

Surprised with all the love for Sanders. Might be because he burned me but I won’t be drafting him and while Thomas is not a must have that’s the wideout I want in Denver. 

 
Either. WR32 is a 6th-7th round pick.

list for me the WRs available at that price & tell me who you’d rather have if you need a WR4. 
In a 12 team he isn't being drafted as a number WR4 he's being drafted as a WR3. And of the guys on the FFCalculator list around Garcon I would take, literally all of them.  Literally.

Sanders, Cobb, Crowder, Funchess, Cupp, Anderson, Parker, Nelson and Goodwin all being drafted after Garcon. I would draft every single one over Garcon. 

To be fair Edelman is being drafted as WR29 and I may (MAY) take Garcon over him (likely I will not have either on my roster).

 
In a 12 team he isn't being drafted as a number WR4 he's being drafted as a WR3. And of the guys on the FFCalculator list around Garcon I would take, literally all of them.  Literally.

Sanders, Cobb, Crowder, Funchess, Cupp, Anderson, Parker, Nelson and Goodwin all being drafted after Garcon. I would draft every single one over Garcon. 

To be fair Edelman is being drafted as WR29 and I may (MAY) take Garcon over him (likely I will not have either on my roster).
I thought Cobb was going  around earlier. 

I wouldn’t take Sanders over him. 

Nor Parker for that matter, but he’s burned me too much for me to trust. I wouldn’t take Jordy or Anderson over him either. 

Crowder / Funchrss seem like a wash. 

 
Surprised with all the love for Sanders. Might be because he burned me but I won’t be drafting him and while Thomas is not a must have that’s the wideout I want in Denver. 
Same - I think with Sanders it’s nostalgia & with Thomas it’s recency bias.  :shrug:

 
Any love for Marshawn Lynch? He’s another I almost included. 

Gruden wants to run old school. Lynch has a great OL & looked better & better as the year went on.

Another boom/bust? 
I have several players I left off my original list.

A few of those are, Andrew Luck, Jamison Crowder, and Marshawn Lynch is a bit more of a speculative dart throw.

The last few seasons I have steered clear of Lynch, and he has been on my "congratulations list".  (If you draft Marshawn Lynch in my leagues and beat me with him....CONGRATULATIONS.)   :P

 But in the last week or two's worth of mocks, he looks to be one of the last sizeable workload type backs off the board. I have seen him going in round 8 regularly, sometimes later and its hard to turn up your nose at acquiring a back that could put up RB2 numbers (and is a plug and play most weeks).

I gave up on Lynch many years ago, but adding him into your stable of 6+ backs in redrafts might turn out to be something to get you 4-6 weeks of strong numbers.

If he goes this late as the season approaches, I am likely to have him on a roster somewhere.

 TZM

 
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I have several players I left off my original list.

A few of those are, Andrew Luck, Jamison Crowder, and Marshawn Lynch is a bit more of a speculative dart throw.

The last few seasons I have steered clear of Lynch, and he has been on my "congratulations list".  (If you draft Marshawn Lynch in my leagues and beat me with him....CONGRATULATIONS.)   :P

 But in the last week or two's worth of mocks, he looks to be one of the last sizeable workload type backs off the board. I have seen him going in round 8 regularly, sometimes later and its hard to turn up your nose at acquiring a back that could put up RB2 numbers (and is a plug and play most weeks).

I gave up on Lynch many years ago, but adding him into your stable of 6+ backs in redrafts might turn out to be something to get you 4-6 weeks of strong numbers.

If he goes this late as the season approaches, I am likely to have him on a roster somewhere.

 TZM
That’s pretty much my exact thought process. If Lynch is my 4th or 5th RB in the 7-8 round, I’m feeling pretty good about my RB depth.

I thought a lot of Raiders were overdrafted last year. That team was on the come, and a lot of the players disappointed.

this year feels like a reversal where expectations are lower than value. I see an 7-9 or 8-8 team with maybe wildcard upside.

I like Lynch this year for all the reasons people liked him last year. 

 
Cobb had 26-246-1 in 5 games playing with Rodgers to start the season. I am not sure if that should count for good, pretty good, average, so so, etc.
Yeah the first three weeks he went 9-85; 6-60; and 4-41-1 and then had two down weeks of 4-29 and 3-28 - so he was off to a good start which is what I recalled, and like any WR he was going to have some down weeks. Who knows what pace he would have stayed on if Rodgers was healthy?

With Nelson gone I'd imagine he'll have a good season but he's not a superstar or anything.

 
Both my drafts are live, but in the SF Bay Area I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go top 10. 
I'm only in one live draft as well but one or two owners of the twelve usually end up drafting remotely and some of the live people follow along on the site (we have to input the draft since we have remote drafters) so they could be influenced by the CBS rankings.

 
Chris Hogan - Amendola and Cooks are vacating a ton of targets.  Edelman is coming off injury and suspension.  Gronk is a beast but tends to be a gamble to play 16.  Love Hogan.

Lamar Miller - The offensive line is atrocious but he should be a good play based on volume.  Part of this call is I don't trust Foreman at all coming off an Achilles injury.

John Brown - Great reports coming out of camp.  Opportunity for a decent share of targets should be there (Snead scares me nada).  I think he has always been talented just hasn't been able to stay healthy.  ADP on the rise.

Danny Amendola - Amendola was a monster in the playoffs for NE and Jarvis Landry soaked up targets in the slot in the Mia offense.  Riffing with Tannehill in camp.

CJ Anderson - CJ had 245 carries for Denver last year.  JStew had 198 for Car in 15 games.  I think 215 carries and 20 catches are a reasonable expectation for CJA which makes him a good midround value.

 
I get the feeling that people are going to have to pay a premium to land McKinnon. Wouldn't be surprised if he was a late first, early second by the time my Labor Day redraft rolls around.
:lmao:  that will be me if he is selected anywhere that early.  Why won't people learn McKinnon is not a great NFL RB.  its very obvious if you watch him play.

 
That’s pretty much my exact thought process. If Lynch is my 4th or 5th RB in the 7-8 round, I’m feeling pretty good about my RB depth.

I thought a lot of Raiders were overdrafted last year. That team was on the come, and a lot of the players disappointed.

this year feels like a reversal where expectations are lower than value. I see an 7-9 or 8-8 team with maybe wildcard upside.

I like Lynch this year for all the reasons people liked him last year. 
Yup I’m good with Lynch as my 5th RB. If he falls I’m all over him. Like you said you prob can’t expect any monster games but he has to be good for double digits every week. 

 
I wouldn't have put many of these guys on the list in May; but after looking at my MFL rosters, I find these guys on most of my teams:

Tyreek Hill

Allen Robinson

Duke Johnson

Isaiah Crowell

Ausin Hooper

Jordan Wilkins

 
mr. peanut said:
:lmao:  that will be me if he is selected anywhere that early.  Why won't people learn McKinnon is not a great NFL RB.  its very obvious if you watch him play.
I watched a ton of his play the last two years. When given the touches he was a beast. His YPC was solid between the tackles, he’s got speed to the outside & he’s an above average receiver out of the backfield. 

He’s fast in the open field and somewhat elusive as a runner. 

Given the team & system I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t live up to his draft value other than health, which is hard to predict. The Niners certainly see him as a centerpiece RB to their offense, and with a career 4 YPC, for volume alone he should have a solid weekly floor.  

We’ve only seen him used as a “feature back” a couple of times. During the 2-week stretch following Cook going down last year, he had 16/95/1 6/51/0 & 15/69/1 5/30/1.

That’s 5.29 YPC

Then he started splitting carries to mixed results.

What exactly do you see that makes him “not a great NFL RB”? 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
Yeah the first three weeks he went 9-85; 6-60; and 4-41-1 and then had two down weeks of 4-29 and 3-28 - so he was off to a good start which is what I recalled, and like any WR he was going to have some down weeks. Who knows what pace he would have stayed on if Rodgers was healthy?

With Nelson gone I'd imagine he'll have a good season but he's not a superstar or anything.
Which is fine since he’d be drafted as a WR3 with WR2 upside. I don’t think anyone’s expecting borderline WR1 numbers like he had that one year. 

But one can always hope. ;)  

 
Speaking of Jordy, I think his ADP is going to keep creeping up.  Have to discern fluff camp from the real thing, but he appears to be killing it in camp.  He turns 33 and looked washed up last year.  Even without a ton of catches he could be the same RZ threat that Crabtree was in Oak. 

Jordy was a consensus top 10 WR pick in last year's drafts.

 
I watched a ton of his play the last two years. When given the touches he was a beast. His YPC was solid between the tackles, he’s got speed to the outside & he’s an above average receiver out of the backfield. 

He’s fast in the open field and somewhat elusive as a runner. 

Given the team & system I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t live up to his draft value other than health, which is hard to predict. The Niners certainly see him as a centerpiece RB to their offense, and with a career 4 YPC, for volume alone he should have a solid weekly floor.  

We’ve only seen him used as a “feature back” a couple of times. During the 2-week stretch following Cook going down last year, he had 16/95/1 6/51/0 & 15/69/1 5/30/1.

That’s 5.29 YPC

Then he started splitting carries to mixed results.

What exactly do you see that makes him “not a great NFL RB”? 
I just don't see it with him.  He can hit a big gap with speed and catch a wide open pass in the flat but that does not make a starting NFL RB.  both Breida and Willams are superior inside runners with better patience and vision.  McKinnon's only chance of success is if Jimmy is lighting it up and keeping the defense reeling.  JMO on what i've seen of him.  I have him ranked as RB#22.   

 
Since i am critiquing others i should put up my must have's this year:

1) Alex Collins - The predator has an improved healthy O-line and the team has some receiving weapons for once.  i can't wait to see what he does this year.   he is vicious.

2) Kerryon Johnson - best RB patience i've seen since Bell.  people will be down on him because of Detroits lack of RB success of late.  Don't be like them.

3) Anthony Miller - this guy can play some football.  might take a while to get fully up to speed but i'm not missing this boat.  he's a gamer.

4) Dalvin Cook - Want to see some preseason carries but if he is back i'm all in.  Great 3 down back on a superbowl favorite.  he has vision, hands and explosiveness.  yes please.

5) Smith-Shuster - he's just a bad man.  gonna feast if teams try and take away Brown.  

 
I just don't see it with him.  He can hit a big gap with speed and catch a wide open pass in the flat but that does not make a starting NFL RB.  both Breida and Willams are superior inside runners with better patience and vision.  McKinnon's only chance of success is if Jimmy is lighting it up and keeping the defense reeling.  JMO on what i've seen of him.  I have him ranked as RB#22.   
Vikings fan here who has seen everything McKinnon has done on the pro level. I have tried to discuss this in McKinnons thread as well.

I would agree with you that McKinnon lacks vision and spatial awareness at times. He does not make defenders miss as often as a lot of RB do. I don't doubt McKinnons athletic ability to do this either, he can do it, I just don't think he processes what he is seeing quickly enough to execute moves like this often as a lot of RB can do. He is a gifted player in almost every other way. He runs with very good power to gain yards after contact, he just doesn't use his quickness to change lanes, change gears and make defenders miss as often as he could if he had better vision and awareness of how the play is developing around him.

As a receiver McKinnon started out very raw but he has made improvements as a receiver every season. That is one thing I do love about McKinnon, is that I have seen him improve steadily every year as a receiver and in pass protection, to a point now where he is excellent in these two areas of his game.

Obviously Skeletor Jr thinks McKinnon fits his scheme perfectly, which is something I question somewhat, because the vision for the outside zone which the Vikings ran a ton of last year, McKinnon was not as good at executing that as Dalvin Cook was. He will be in the same scheme with the 49ers.

It will be interesting. Maybe there is something about how he will use McKinnon, that simplifies things for him and makes him more effective than he was with the Vikings. Maybe the Vikings coaches are dumb and should have used McKnnon more than they did. Pretty soon here we are going to find out. I am very interested to see how well McKinnon does with the 49ers and if my concerns are correct or not.

Where I cannot agree with you is in regards to Matt Breida or Joe Williams being better inside runners. I don't think they are. In regards to Matt Brieda I think he is a north south runner, not very creative or having good vision and instincts, much like McKinnon was, just less experienced now. That said I did see Breida execute a outside zone running play where he did identify the right cut back lane and he executed the play better than I thought he could. So the coaching did make a difference for him at least, compared to what I saw of him in college games anyways.

Joe Williams is the most elusive of the 3. But I would not describe him as an inside runner. He likes to bounce things out to the edge and had some success with that.

I don't think either of these RB are better than McKinnon in a significant way. Williams does have better cuts and elusiveness than the other two but not as good in some other areas like running with pad level and leverage. McKinnon is very good at that and Breida/Williams are not as good as him in that area. Maybe in time they will become good receivers like McKinnon did, but they are not where he is in that area right now.

 
I like a Thomas this year at his ADP. Sanders worries me. 

I’ve been hyping Rudolph for a while - this year feels like the year for him to have a really solid season. 

Obv I agree about McKinnon.

I worry about Watson - he played out of his mind & I don’t believe that’s sustainable. For one; the defense should be improved/healthy. For another, they will try to run a lot more, partly because of the defense being improved.

which reminds me of a guy I am high on - I’ll post that next.

anyway, to the rest:

Cooks - that’s the Todd Gurley show, and I’m not sure there’s that much deep passing to sustain Cooks as a WR2 or even WR3. And he’s expensive. I saw a lot of his play in NEP & came away unimpressed. 

Henry - I’m a fan. Lewis will also be a nice get this year, and about 1-3 rounds later. But Henry is likely to get 180+ carries and at his ADP that’s pretty solid. Sprinkle in his best case TD totals & he should be fair value. I just worry he’ll be boom or bust some weeks if game flow is more passing oriented. 

Edelman, Guice, Williams - I want to see them in preseason to better evaluate. 
Thomas worries me more. He's been regressing too much for my taste and when I consider Keenum being added into the equation I see Sanders being more of his Thielen to Thomas being Diggs.

Watson should be fine, whether he runs or not. Will he likely be the spectacle that he was before injury? No, people now see him coming. However, he's a year more seasoned and he looks to be the real deal and I'd wager even if he's 80% of what he was, he'll cost me less than guys who'll likely go ahead of him and perform the same. Fuller and Watson have been really hitting it off thus far in practice for this season and they had a really good connection before Watson was hurt as well. Fuller will cost you a fraction of Hopkins, but we all know who's the man in Houston.

Agreed on Cooks, but if I draft RB high, or somehow get Gronk and have to look for value WRs, I think Cooks will slip to be a value pick up. I like Goff's arm with his skill set and while Woods had a good year last year, I think Cooks immediately steps in to be the clear choice in an offense that should generate plenty of opportunities with teams stacking the box for Gurley and having a good defense.

For Edelman, I always like to target one guy who was injured the previous year and/or was out for the season before. The risk of those guys returning to form is usually easily mitigated by their ADP. Edelman also is suspended so he should be very cheap this year in the draft. Everyone will clammer for Gronk and forget about him and he could easily perform as a WR2-3 in PPR and be had for WR4-5 price.

 
I'll approach this topic as guys I'm higher on than most and would likely take above their ADP level:

Matthew Stafford: Perpetually undervalued....will he win you your league? No, but he's a virtual lock to be a top 10 QB so you can let others take QBs in the first 10 rounds while you load up at RB and WR and grab Stafford after Round 10 and not be worse for the wear. The Lions put the ball in the air a ton and have some nice weapons for Stafford.
This is an interesting point.  I've always been kind of an anti-Stafford guy and not totally sure why.  After seeing this, I thought I'd look into his consistency more.  Using the play index at PFR, I arbitrarily grabbed QB seasons with 250 or more FP in the past 5 years.  There were 77 such seasons.  Only 5 QBs have done it all 5 years: Brady, Brees, Rivers, Wilson and Stafford.

 

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