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Your guess on chance Tom Brady might skip the Germany game before the bye? (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Maybe a crazy question. Tampa plays Seattle Week 10 in Germany and then has a Week 11 bye. What percent chance would you say a healthy Tom Brady skips Germany game to get a 2-week break?

Reply with your best guess on the percent chance you think he skips.
 
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Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Isn’t Gisel’s family in Germany?

Imma say 0% chance. There will be an entire suite of relatives there to watch the Brady Bunch.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Isn’t Gisel’s family in Germany?

Imma say 0% chance. There will be an entire suite of relatives there to watch the Brady Bunch.
She's from Brazil.
true, but german heritage.
So am I . . . and I haven't had anyone but a distant relative live in Germany in 100 years. IIRC, her family is like 6th generation living in Brazil. I doubt the Brady's will be scrounging a bevy of extra tickets for her local relatives clamoring to go to the game. They may travel with relatives, but I doubt the Germany element would be a huge factor.
 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Prior to his un-retirement he attended a Manchester United soccer match in Germany. I imagine the Brady family is actually looking forward to it.

Interesting question though I guess. Maybe if they only have a loss or two and a large lead in the division.
 

Birdie048

Footballguy
30% Chance to allow him 2 weeks of Filming! His future is in Hollywood, not the Broadcast booth or coaching!
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
  • Tom Brady started 111 consecutive games from his rookie year until the torn ACL.
  • Tom Brady started 112 consecutive games from the torn ACL until the Deflategate Suspension.
  • Tom Brady has started 93 consecutive games from the Deflategate Suspension through the end of 2021.
  • Tom Brady will be the only quarterback with three streaks of 100 consecutive starts after Week 7 in 2022. It's happened 12 times in league history, I think he's the only one to do it more than once.
My best guess is 17 starts and the regular season streak will go to 110 consecutive games started.

(let's not forget 47 consecutive playoff starts, that's almost another three seasons right there.)
 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
Not sure why Brady would skip an actual game. He's never done that in his entire career. Why would that start happening now?

It's a new world. He's never skipped 10 days of August camp that I know of.
If we are going to speculate without any rhyme or reason, why not have him skip the Week 16 game @ ARI on Christmas? Family time and all. Or the Week 12 game @ CLE (potentially without Watson playing) . . . the game after the Bucs bye?

I don't see anything that to suggest Brady would start ducking actual games. He skipped minicamp, OTA's, practices, and voluntary stuff with NE before. But he didn't skip out on games. I've seen all sorts of speculation on why he isn't in camp with Tampa . . . filming something, marriage issues, corporate commitments, etc. It could have been something he lined up when he was retired and can't back out of.
 

jon007

Footballguy
0% chance of a healthy scratch.
I can't imagine a situation that would pull Tom away from a game that counts.

IMO this has enormous implications not only for Tom as a player but for TB12 as a brand.
I don't think the G.O.A.T wants become goat cheese...
 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
If we are going to speculate without any rhyme or reason, why not have him skip the Week 16 game @ ARI on Christmas? Family time and all. Or the Week 12 game @ CLE (potentially without Watson playing) . . . the game after the Bucs bye?

You're welcome to speculate on those if you like. In this thread, I was asking about the Germany game.

What's your guess on the percentage chance he skips the Germany game?
 

SoBeDad

Footballguy
While the topic is on Giselle, I find interesting that she speaks Portuguese, English, and Spanish very fluently, some French, but only minimal German. I know many Brazilians who speak Spanish and almost all have a distinct accent, but not her. Her English is also very good.

Tom and Giselle would be a big attraction in Germany. I think the NFL would frown upon its superstar not playing in Germany.

How did this rumor get started?

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
If we are going to speculate without any rhyme or reason, why not have him skip the Week 16 game @ ARI on Christmas? Family time and all. Or the Week 12 game @ CLE (potentially without Watson playing) . . . the game after the Bucs bye?

You're welcome to speculate on those if you like. In this thread, I was asking about the Germany game.

What's your guess on the percentage chance he skips the Germany game?
Since we can never say never . . . 0.1%. But that would probably only involve a life or death situation involving a family member. His mother has battled cancer for several years. I doubt Tom would start taking load management games off. If the Bucs wanted to try to keep him fresher or limit his snaps for some reason, I would guess they would start pulling him earlier in the 4th quarter in games with decent leads.
 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
I was wondering what I was missing. Has this been discussed anywhere?

Was a primary topic on Colin Cowherd's show Friday. He's not saying it would happen. And certainly, sports radio is about being interesting, not right. But he repeatedly said he'd have zero problem with Brady skipping the Germany game in the context of downplaying the missed training camp time.

I thought it was an interesting question so thought I'd ask you folks here.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I was wondering what I was missing. Has this been discussed anywhere?

Was a primary topic on Colin Cowherd's show Friday. He's not saying it would happen. And certainly, sports radio is about being interesting, not right. But he repeatedly said he'd have zero problem with Brady skipping the Germany game in the context of downplaying the missed training camp time.

I thought it was an interesting question so thought I'd ask you folks here.
Probably should have led with that.

I get it, not much is happening that's really newsworthy in sports at the moment. It's training camp in the NFL, MLB still has a couple of months to the playoffs. The NBA and NHL aren't doing anything. The Watson stuff has been covered and then some, so the only other mainstream news item now is Brady being out of camp. It's a slow news cycle and the sports media needs to discuss something.

The angle in NE this week is they speculate that Tom and Gisele are having marital issues and are headed for a divorce. Truth be told, I don't think anyone outside of Brady's circle of trust really knows much of anything.
 

[icon]

Insoxicated
  • Tom Brady started 111 consecutive games from his rookie year until the torn ACL.
  • Tom Brady started 112 consecutive games from the torn ACL until the Deflategate Suspension.
  • Tom Brady started 93 consecutive games from the Deflategate Suspension until through 2021.
  • Tom Brady will be the only quarterback with three streaks of 100 consecutive starts after Week 7 in 2022. It's happened 12 times in league history, I think he's the only one to do it more than once.
My best guess is 17 starts and the regular season streak will go to 110 consecutive games started.

(let's not forget 47 consecutive playoff starts, that's almost another three seasons right there.)

Only chance IMO would be if Bucs had a commanding lead in division and for home field. Week 11 is too early for that to happen would be best guess.

Less than 1%

If we are going to speculate without any rhyme or reason, why not have him skip the Week 16 game @ ARI on Christmas? Family time and all. Or the Week 12 game @ CLE (potentially without Watson playing) . . . the game after the Bucs bye?

I don't see anything that to suggest Brady would start ducking actual games. He skipped minicamp, OTA's, practices, and voluntary stuff with NE before. But he didn't skip out on games. I've seen all sorts of speculation on why he isn't in camp with Tampa . . . filming something, marriage issues, corporate commitments, etc. It could have been something he lined up when he was retired and can't back out of.

All these things.

5% because never say never.
 

menobrown

Footballguy
First reaction is to say zero chance primarily because Brady sets the culture for the entire franchise and championship level culture builders like him don't blow off entire real games. But then I think those players don't typically exit middle of training camp for a hiatus either.

Selfishly for Brady I'd think he'd view this as a chance to grow his brand on the international level.

Would be 7 games left entering week 11 so hard to think Tampa would be out of the running for that and with as big of an advantage as seed 1 is would be impossible for me to think Brady would risk sacrificing that top seed.

Without knowing why he left now, it's hard to totally dismiss why he might leave again especially with the way the schedule breaks but I'm still only going to go 1%.
 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
0%, I think its kind of a silly to think skipping 10 days of camp would lead to skipping actual games. Its like saying going on vacation means you're going to quit your job.

Players don't take a vacation from the time Training Camps start to when the season ends. Unless you count the bye week.

This is more like one guy taking a vacation during a busy time when nobody else in the company gets to take one.

More importantly, it's super unusual. For a guy who's built a career about not doing unusual things except for winning like crazy.

And I think we're in a new age. Players skip games now, especially in other sports, with an eye toward the end goal.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
0%, I think its kind of a silly to think skipping 10 days of camp would lead to skipping actual games. Its like saying going on vacation means you're going to quit your job.

Players don't take a vacation from the time Training Camps start to when the season ends. Unless you count the bye week.

This is more like one guy taking a vacation during a busy time when nobody else in the company gets to take one.

More importantly, it's super unusual. For a guy who's built a career about not doing unusual things except for winning like crazy.

And I think we're in a new age. Players skip games now, especially in other sports, with an eye toward the end goal.
Yeah, but that’s like basketball (82 games) & baseball (162 games).

Football even at 17 games, that’s 6% of the season.

I’m skeptical Brady would do it, and I think it would be bad leadership, something Brady isn’t known for at all.
 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Yeah, but that’s like basketball (82 games) & baseball (162 games).

Football even at 17 games, that’s 6% of the season.

Sure. I think everyone gets the difference in games as percentage of season. But players have skipped NFL games too at the end of the regular season. And often players will delay returning from injury on the game prior to a bye.

And I'm not at all saying I think he'd skip. I'm mostly interested in the folks who're so certain he wouldn't do it. That's interesting to me.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
Yeah, but that’s like basketball (82 games) & baseball (162 games).

Football even at 17 games, that’s 6% of the season.

Sure. I think everyone gets the difference in games as percentage of season. But players have skipped NFL games too at the end of the regular season. And often players will delay returning from injury on the game prior to a bye.

And I'm not at all saying I think he'd skip. I'm mostly interested in the folks who're so certain he wouldn't do it. That's interesting to me.
All fair points.
 

Chaka

Footballguy
Yeah, but that’s like basketball (82 games) & baseball (162 games).

Football even at 17 games, that’s 6% of the season.

Sure. I think everyone gets the difference in games as percentage of season. But players have skipped NFL games too at the end of the regular season. And often players will delay returning from injury on the game prior to a bye.

And I'm not at all saying I think he'd skip. I'm mostly interested in the folks who're so certain he wouldn't do it. That's interesting to me.
He's never voluntarily skipped a consequential game in the past, I am not even certain he has sat out a game even after home field has been secured, there is zero reason to believe he will do it in the future. His legacy is too important to his ego to take even the smallest blemish voluntarily.
 

Titans_fan

Footballguy
I saw the Cowherd segment, and he made a lot of good points. Players (not necessarily Brady) have already mentioned a second BYE with the expanded schedule. Seattle is a very winnable game without Brady and I could see the appeal to extra time off after 9 weeks of a contact sport at the age of 45.

On the other hand, players wanna play. I think the odds he skips the game are very low but definitely higher than zero. I'd say it's a 7-10% chance.
 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
He's never voluntarily skipped a consequential game in the past, I am not even certain he has sat out a game even after home field has been secured, there is zero reason to believe he will do it in the future. His legacy is too important to his ego to take even the smallest blemish voluntarily.

What percentage chance would you say he skips the Germany game?
 

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