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Your guess on chance Tom Brady might skip the Germany game before the bye? (1 Viewer)

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
I saw the Cowherd segment, and he made a lot of good points. Players (not necessarily Brady) have already mentioned a second BYE with the expanded schedule. Seattle is a very winnable game without Brady and I could see the appeal to extra time off after 9 weeks of a contact sport at the age of 45.

Absolutely. 2nd bye week is a real thing.
 

habsfan

Footballguy
Yeah, but that’s like basketball (82 games) & baseball (162 games).

Football even at 17 games, that’s 6% of the season.

Sure. I think everyone gets the difference in games as percentage of season. But players have skipped NFL games too at the end of the regular season. And often players will delay returning from injury on the game prior to a bye.

And I'm not at all saying I think he'd skip. I'm mostly interested in the folks who're so certain he wouldn't do it. That's interesting to me.
Would Cal Ripken skip the Germany game? No... no he wouldn't. ;)
 

Chaka

Footballguy
He's never voluntarily skipped a consequential game in the past, I am not even certain he has sat out a game even after home field has been secured, there is zero reason to believe he will do it in the future. His legacy is too important to his ego to take even the smallest blemish voluntarily.

What percentage chance would you say he skips the Germany game?
Was I unclear?

Zero, zip, nada, nil, zilch, zippo, bupkis, goose-egg, naught, null-and-void, diddly, hill-of-beans, blank, not a sausage, sweet Fanny Adams, never happen.

I just did a quick look at Brady on PFR, when healthy he has never missed a start in any of his teams final game of the regular season. And I see only two occasions where he seems to have left those games in the 3rd quarter.

If he's upright, he plays.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I saw the Cowherd segment on YouTube. I agree with some of the comments there. People will be paying top $$$ to go to that game to see the GOAT. Like thousands of dollars. You can't have Brady bail on that game. The optics would be terrible. With TB12 as an ambassador trying to expand the league's presence overseas (and Brady's TB12 brand as well), I don't see Brady sitting for the game in Germany. I suppose I could be convinced that Brady might want two weeks off mid-season (slim chance but a chance nonetheless), in which case I would suggest he would take the week after the bye off (against Cleveland).
 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
And I'm not at all saying I think he'd skip. I'm mostly interested in the folks who're so certain he wouldn't do it. That's interesting to me.
I don’t think it’s surprising that most people would say “no chance”, as it’s unprecedented in the NFL and Brady just doesn’t seem like that type that would even have it in him to consider it.
Obviously no one can be truly certain - but there’s no reason to believe he would other than Colin Cowherd opining.
 

nirad3

Footballguy
I'll say there's a 1% chance he doesn't play in that game. Even at his age, he's one of the "faces of the NFL", so no way he skips it if healthy.
 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I don’t think it’s surprising that most people would say “no chance”, as it’s unprecedented in the NFL and Brady just doesn’t seem like that type that would even have it in him to consider it.

Understood. I'm just always interested in the "no chance" vote.
If he’s at all banged up & they’re in good position record-wise, it’s a possibility - but if not I’m skeptical.
 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
All these things would have to be true for him to skip that game.

The Bucs would have to have a mediocre to good record, that puts them easily into the playoffs, but not in contention for the number 1 seed.

Seahawks would have to look like absolute garbage, so it was an easy win.

Brady would have to be playing average to above average football for the year, no chance at MVP, no chance at any records for him or any of his guys on offense.

Brady and the coaching staff would have to feel comfortable with the backup playing well.

Brady would have to ask for the rest. I don't believe the coaching staff would ask him to rest.

There may have to be some concerns with the field and safety of the players. Not enough to move or cancel the game, but enough where Brady and the Bucs said let's sit the one out.

Odds of all this happening? Under 1%
 

Maurile Tremblay

Administrator
Staff member
If Giselle is in the hospital or something, he could miss that game the same way any player could always miss any game. (But I don't think we should have separate threads for each player possibly missing each game.)

If it's just to take a vacation, the chance is either zero percent or negative zero percent, whichever is lower.
 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
I suppose I would bump my percentage if Brady were including the chance that Brady could opt to retire again . . . but I doubt that is what Joe was interested in discussing. IMO, there is probably a better chance of Brady starting the season, not being into it (or having family demands) and calling it a day before the game in Germany than there is in a healthy Brady just opting not to play the game in Germany. And I wouldn't put the odds of a healthy Brady retiring mid-season very high.
 

BoltNlava

Footballguy
I really cannot see the GOAT deciding to retire, unretire, then retire again. Just can not see that happening. Being a leader, he also would not forgo traveling just to take time off while others do so. 0%. Too much legacy to support RN. No way it happens unless injury.
 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I really cannot see the GOAT deciding to retire, unretire, then retire again. Just can not see that happening. Being a leader, he also would not forgo traveling just to take time off while others do so. 0%. Too much legacy to support RN. No way it happens unless injury.
What if his wife says, "It's me and the family or football?" He has to pick one or the other and he can no longer have both. Gisele and Tom have been skirmishing over this for years.
 

Mitchie

Footballguy
This is a guy who wouldn't come out for a play in 20 years in NE. I don't see how this would ever happen (assuming full health).
 

Deamon

Footballguy
He's never voluntarily skipped a consequential game in the past, I am not even certain he has sat out a game even after home field has been secured, there is zero reason to believe he will do it in the future. His legacy is too important to his ego to take even the smallest blemish voluntarily.

What percentage chance would you say he skips the Germany game?
I'd say 0.01%. Always a chance, but so low that it's not even worth discussion really. If you were a normal poster I think you'd be getting a good tar and feathering and this would be shut down fast haha.
Curious though, what is your percentage Joe? (Don't think anyone has asked you yet)
 

wlwiles

Footballguy
0%, I think its kind of a silly to think skipping 10 days of camp would lead to skipping actual games. Its like saying going on vacation means you're going to quit your job.

Players don't take a vacation from the time Training Camps start to when the season ends. Unless you count the bye week.

This is more like one guy taking a vacation during a busy time when nobody else in the company gets to take one.

More importantly, it's super unusual. For a guy who's built a career about not doing unusual things except for winning like crazy.

And I think we're in a new age. Players skip games now, especially in other sports, with an eye toward the end goal.
I've wondered this last part before - not about Brady sitting out in Germany but how in other sports players get rest games. LeBron gets a handful of games off, MLB sits players all the time, but those are sports with 80+ game seasons. Not sure what hockey does as I don't follow NHL.

There's just not enough football games IMO to warrant a star player getting a rest game. I know these guys play a BRUTAL sport, it's constant car crashes with their bodies...and 17 games is a long season in NFL terms. But each game is so vitally important in an NFL season. The Lakers losing one game bc LBJ sat out barely moves the needle in the playoff race...in the NFL it could cost you a playoff spot altogether. I think the closest you get to an NFL guy getting a rest game is if he's already banged up, they give him a light workload one game. The team would probably hide the rest day under some injury, they'd say "Brady has an ankle issue, we're gonna be extra cautious, etc." then rule him out last minute, vs just outright saying "we're giving him a day off" on a Sunday.
 

houston

Footballguy
NFL would be angry beyond belief.

TB12 would miss an opportunity to promote in Europe.

Agree with what others said regarding Tampa seeding and playoff chase.

So, half of one percent chance.
 

Bri

Footballguy
As the NFLE folded slowly, Germany continued to support the NFL.
There have been several players in the NFL on that foreign player program and in "the spring league.' Germany is like a model for what the NFL would like to develop with little league pee wee types and high school ball too.
This game went over big already and I wouldn't be surprised if there are two games next year.

Brady's future job as owner.....he needs to dig in there and learn all he can. There is a ton of money to be had.

The other side is, he is going to be so adored and well received there- all these people watching the NFL from there get to see the GOAT QB. His merch sales should have a good spike after this.

I can't imagine he misses this game
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
As the NFLE folded slowly, Germany continued to support the NFL.
There have been several players in the NFL on that foreign player program and in "the spring league.' Germany is like a model for what the NFL would like to develop with little league pee wee types and high school ball too.
This game went over big already and I wouldn't be surprised if there are two games next year.

Brady's future job as owner.....he needs to dig in there and learn all he can. There is a ton of money to be had.

The other side is, he is going to be so adored and well received there- all these people watching the NFL from there get to see the GOAT QB. His merch sales should have a good spike after this.

I can't imagine he misses this game
Great point! Why did the NFL start having regular season games overseas? To promote the NFL. To schedule the Bucs to play in Germany, then have the face of the league not even show up - that's a slap in the face to an entire country.
 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
Curious though, what is your percentage Joe? (Don't think anyone has asked you yet)

Thanks. I'd say 5%. I think people are massively overlooking several things.

  • Brady's shown us he's in a different time now. For a guy who thrives on preparation, taking 10 days off in August for an unexplained absence with a new coach and star WR is shocking. A snap decision to retire and then unretire is extremely non Bradylike.
  • Society is different now. It's a good change, but no longer do we praise the guy who fights through everything to go to work. If you're sick or have family obligations or real things like that, we're way more understanding about missing work. When my son was born 28 years ago, I got 12 hours of paternity leave. That's not how it is now. Again, rightly so.
  • Depending on how beat up he is by Week 10, it's likely the smart game theory move. We're in uncharted waters for a player this old to be this good. 2 weeks off and avoiding a European flight against a likely terrible team is likely the smart play.
  • Of course he cares about his image, but I believe he puts a Super Bowl at the very top priority. And it's not hard to make a case skipping a game here could increase his chances to win another super bowl.
And for sure, it would never be presented this way as he's just skipping. It'll be a shoulder injury reported in Week 8 where he's probable. And week 9 he reports he's not feeling right and the best thing for team is he shut it down for 10 days yada yada.

Now of course there are tons of reasons not to do it. That's why I'd say 95% he doesn't do it. But I find it fascinating some people think there's near 0% chance.
 
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TheWinz

Footballguy
Remember that time you saved up your hard earned money for weeks, so you could attend the Rolling Stones farewell concert? Then, when the concert started, Blaine Gabbert was the lead singer for the band.
 

Deamon

Footballguy
Curious though, what is your percentage Joe? (Don't think anyone has asked you yet)

Thanks. I'd say 5%. I think people are massively overlooking several things.

  • Brady's shown us he's in a different time now. For a guy who thrives on preparation, taking 10 days off in August for an unexplained absence with a new coach and star WR is shocking. A snap decision to retire and then unretire is extremely non Bradylike.
  • Society is different now. It's a good change, but no longer do we praise the guy who fights through everything to go to work. If you're sick or have family obligations or real things like that, we're way more understanding about missing work. When my son was born 28 years ago, I got 12 hours of paternity leave. That's not how it is now. Again, rightly so.
  • Depending on how beat up he is by Week 10, it's likely the smart game theory move. We're in uncharted waters for a player this old to be this good. 2 weeks off and avoiding a European flight against a likely terrible team is likely the smart play.
  • Of course he cares about his image, but I believe he puts a Super Bowl at the very top priority. And it's not hard to make a case skipping a game here could increase his chances to win another super bowl.
And for sure, it would never be presented this way as he's just skipping. It'll be a shoulder injury reported in Week 8 where he's probable. And week 9 he reports he's not feeling right and the best thing for team is he shut it down for 10 days yada yada.

Now of course there are tons of reasons not to do it. That's why I'd say 95% he doesn't do it. But I find it fascinating some people think there's near 0% chance.
I mean, is there really THAT much difference between 1% and 5%? Both are EXTREMELY unlikely to happen, and it's really hard to put a % on these things and really quantify just what 1% means vs 5%.

I agree with your points about it being a different time, etc, but that is probably the one game I think he would NEVER miss compared to all the others. I'd put the chances of him randomly taking every other week higher than that one. The NFL would simply lose their minds if this happened, it would cost them millions, it would be a black eye for the sport in this very big PR move they are doing, etc. Just think there's no chance he would do that.

As for it being shocking for him taking 10 days off now, yes and no. We don't know what this prior commitment is, but I'm assuming it's pretty damn important for him. I'm sure he doesn't want to take these days off, but when he retired he had something big booked in here. Yes camp is important, not trying to downplay that, but to compare the 10 days of camp with a real game that counts towards his legacy, future numbers, mvp chances, super bowl chances (there's zero scenario where this game won't be very important to their SB chances), the huge game in a new country, etc.
I mean we all think it's not going to happen and that it's not even close to likely. We're splitting hairs here at 1 vs 5 %.
 

Joe Bryant

Guide
Staff member
I mean, is there really THAT much difference between 1% and 5%? Both are EXTREMELY unlikely to happen, and it's really hard to put a % on these things and really quantify just what 1% means vs 5%.

I think so, yes. And I could see it going higher. That's pretty different from the folks who are adamant it's zero zilch nada no chance of happening. :shrug:
 

Deamon

Footballguy
I mean, is there really THAT much difference between 1% and 5%? Both are EXTREMELY unlikely to happen, and it's really hard to put a % on these things and really quantify just what 1% means vs 5%.

I think so, yes. And I could see it going higher. That's pretty different from the folks who are adamant it's zero zilch nada no chance of happening. :shrug:
I guess I struggle to see the differences in Percentages on something non-numerical. You do post a lot of threads about percentages, and I always have a really hard time answering those polls that have options like 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, or 90.
My guess though, is if there SOMEHOW was some vegas odd on "will a healthy brady skip the Germany game", then you could likely quantify their odds and it would be under 1%.
 

Judge Smails

Footballguy
Maybe a crazy question. Tampa plays Seattle Week 10 in Germany and then has a Week 11 bye. What percent chance would you say a healthy Tom Brady skips Germany game to get a 2-week break?

Reply with your best guess on the percent chance you think he skips.
Zero. Why?
 

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