Absolutely. 2nd bye week is a real thing.
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Your guess on chance Tom Brady might skip the Germany game before the bye? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
Absolutely. 2nd bye week is a real thing.
habsfan
Footballguy
Would Cal Ripken skip the Germany game? No... no he wouldn't.
Chaka
Footballguy
Was I unclear?
Zero, zip, nada, nil, zilch, zippo, bupkis, goose-egg, naught, null-and-void, diddly, hill-of-beans, blank, not a sausage, sweet Fanny Adams, never happen.
I just did a quick look at Brady on PFR, when healthy he has never missed a start in any of his teams final game of the regular season. And I see only two occasions where he seems to have left those games in the 3rd quarter.
If he's upright, he plays.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
If healthy 0%
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I saw the Cowherd segment on YouTube. I agree with some of the comments there. People will be paying top $$$ to go to that game to see the GOAT. Like thousands of dollars. You can't have Brady bail on that game. The optics would be terrible. With TB12 as an ambassador trying to expand the league's presence overseas (and Brady's TB12 brand as well), I don't see Brady sitting for the game in Germany. I suppose I could be convinced that Brady might want two weeks off mid-season (slim chance but a chance nonetheless), in which case I would suggest he would take the week after the bye off (against Cleveland).
dammit. took my guess. I will go with 1.42% (as I think it will be the under)
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t think it’s surprising that most people would say “no chance”, as it’s unprecedented in the NFL and Brady just doesn’t seem like that type that would even have it in him to consider it.
Obviously no one can be truly certain - but there’s no reason to believe he would other than Colin Cowherd opining.
Understood. I'm just always interested in the "no chance" vote.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If he’s at all banged up & they’re in good position record-wise, it’s a possibility - but if not I’m skeptical.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
All these things would have to be true for him to skip that game.
The Bucs would have to have a mediocre to good record, that puts them easily into the playoffs, but not in contention for the number 1 seed.
Seahawks would have to look like absolute garbage, so it was an easy win.
Brady would have to be playing average to above average football for the year, no chance at MVP, no chance at any records for him or any of his guys on offense.
Brady and the coaching staff would have to feel comfortable with the backup playing well.
Brady would have to ask for the rest. I don't believe the coaching staff would ask him to rest.
There may have to be some concerns with the field and safety of the players. Not enough to move or cancel the game, but enough where Brady and the Bucs said let's sit the one out.
Odds of all this happening? Under 1%
The Bucs would have to have a mediocre to good record, that puts them easily into the playoffs, but not in contention for the number 1 seed.
Seahawks would have to look like absolute garbage, so it was an easy win.
Brady would have to be playing average to above average football for the year, no chance at MVP, no chance at any records for him or any of his guys on offense.
Brady and the coaching staff would have to feel comfortable with the backup playing well.
Brady would have to ask for the rest. I don't believe the coaching staff would ask him to rest.
There may have to be some concerns with the field and safety of the players. Not enough to move or cancel the game, but enough where Brady and the Bucs said let's sit the one out.
Odds of all this happening? Under 1%
If Giselle is in the hospital or something, he could miss that game the same way any player could always miss any game. (But I don't think we should have separate threads for each player possibly missing each game.)
If it's just to take a vacation, the chance is either zero percent or negative zero percent, whichever is lower.
If it's just to take a vacation, the chance is either zero percent or negative zero percent, whichever is lower.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I suppose I would bump my percentage if Brady were including the chance that Brady could opt to retire again . . . but I doubt that is what Joe was interested in discussing. IMO, there is probably a better chance of Brady starting the season, not being into it (or having family demands) and calling it a day before the game in Germany than there is in a healthy Brady just opting not to play the game in Germany. And I wouldn't put the odds of a healthy Brady retiring mid-season very high.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
What if his wife says, "It's me and the family or football?" He has to pick one or the other and he can no longer have both. Gisele and Tom have been skirmishing over this for years.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
FWIW, 32% of my Twitter thinks there's more than a 10% chance he skips.. https://twitter.com/Football_Guys/status/1559152623588184070?s=20&t=NIegrH2K0yv6rGJmVnAmdA
This is why Twitter is south of TMZ in the sports world.
Deamon
Footballguy
I'd say 0.01%. Always a chance, but so low that it's not even worth discussion really. If you were a normal poster I think you'd be getting a good tar and feathering and this would be shut down fast haha.
Curious though, what is your percentage Joe? (Don't think anyone has asked you yet)
wlwiles
Footballguy
I've wondered this last part before - not about Brady sitting out in Germany but how in other sports players get rest games. LeBron gets a handful of games off, MLB sits players all the time, but those are sports with 80+ game seasons. Not sure what hockey does as I don't follow NHL.
There's just not enough football games IMO to warrant a star player getting a rest game. I know these guys play a BRUTAL sport, it's constant car crashes with their bodies...and 17 games is a long season in NFL terms. But each game is so vitally important in an NFL season. The Lakers losing one game bc LBJ sat out barely moves the needle in the playoff race...in the NFL it could cost you a playoff spot altogether. I think the closest you get to an NFL guy getting a rest game is if he's already banged up, they give him a light workload one game. The team would probably hide the rest day under some injury, they'd say "Brady has an ankle issue, we're gonna be extra cautious, etc." then rule him out last minute, vs just outright saying "we're giving him a day off" on a Sunday.
Grace Under Pressure
Footballguy
1% or so. Given his career history of playing in games. But very few future outcomes are absolute when talking probabilities, so I’ll go with 1%.
As the NFLE folded slowly, Germany continued to support the NFL.
There have been several players in the NFL on that foreign player program and in "the spring league.' Germany is like a model for what the NFL would like to develop with little league pee wee types and high school ball too.
This game went over big already and I wouldn't be surprised if there are two games next year.
Brady's future job as owner.....he needs to dig in there and learn all he can. There is a ton of money to be had.
The other side is, he is going to be so adored and well received there- all these people watching the NFL from there get to see the GOAT QB. His merch sales should have a good spike after this.
I can't imagine he misses this game
There have been several players in the NFL on that foreign player program and in "the spring league.' Germany is like a model for what the NFL would like to develop with little league pee wee types and high school ball too.
This game went over big already and I wouldn't be surprised if there are two games next year.
Brady's future job as owner.....he needs to dig in there and learn all he can. There is a ton of money to be had.
The other side is, he is going to be so adored and well received there- all these people watching the NFL from there get to see the GOAT QB. His merch sales should have a good spike after this.
I can't imagine he misses this game
Thanks. I'd say 5%. I think people are massively overlooking several things.
- Brady's shown us he's in a different time now. For a guy who thrives on preparation, taking 10 days off in August for an unexplained absence with a new coach and star WR is shocking. A snap decision to retire and then unretire is extremely non Bradylike.
- Society is different now. It's a good change, but no longer do we praise the guy who fights through everything to go to work. If you're sick or have family obligations or real things like that, we're way more understanding about missing work. When my son was born 28 years ago, I got 12 hours of paternity leave. That's not how it is now. Again, rightly so.
- Depending on how beat up he is by Week 10, it's likely the smart game theory move. We're in uncharted waters for a player this old to be this good. 2 weeks off and avoiding a European flight against a likely terrible team is likely the smart play.
- Of course he cares about his image, but I believe he puts a Super Bowl at the very top priority. And it's not hard to make a case skipping a game here could increase his chances to win another super bowl.
Now of course there are tons of reasons not to do it. That's why I'd say 95% he doesn't do it. But I find it fascinating some people think there's near 0% chance.
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Deamon
Footballguy
I mean, is there really THAT much difference between 1% and 5%? Both are EXTREMELY unlikely to happen, and it's really hard to put a % on these things and really quantify just what 1% means vs 5%.
I agree with your points about it being a different time, etc, but that is probably the one game I think he would NEVER miss compared to all the others. I'd put the chances of him randomly taking every other week higher than that one. The NFL would simply lose their minds if this happened, it would cost them millions, it would be a black eye for the sport in this very big PR move they are doing, etc. Just think there's no chance he would do that.
As for it being shocking for him taking 10 days off now, yes and no. We don't know what this prior commitment is, but I'm assuming it's pretty damn important for him. I'm sure he doesn't want to take these days off, but when he retired he had something big booked in here. Yes camp is important, not trying to downplay that, but to compare the 10 days of camp with a real game that counts towards his legacy, future numbers, mvp chances, super bowl chances (there's zero scenario where this game won't be very important to their SB chances), the huge game in a new country, etc.
I mean we all think it's not going to happen and that it's not even close to likely. We're splitting hairs here at 1 vs 5 %.
I think so, yes. And I could see it going higher. That's pretty different from the folks who are adamant it's zero zilch nada no chance of happening.
Deamon
Footballguy
I guess I struggle to see the differences in Percentages on something non-numerical. You do post a lot of threads about percentages, and I always have a really hard time answering those polls that have options like 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, or 90.
I think so, yes. And I could see it going higher. That's pretty different from the folks who are adamant it's zero zilch nada no chance of happening.
My guess though, is if there SOMEHOW was some vegas odd on "will a healthy brady skip the Germany game", then you could likely quantify their odds and it would be under 1%.
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Zero. Why?
tricky1066
Footballguy
This isn't good if true. https://www.coindesk.com/business/2...t-risks-losing-complete-strategic-investment/
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I blame Antonio Brown. Obviously corporate espionage.
Down Under
Footballguy
He can write that down to zero now. With this loss and without Gisele's money, he might have to play another season.
