Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Thoughts?
I hear this all the time and never understand it. The bottom line is this. You will most likely need to go for 2 at some point, why wait until the end of the game to find out you missed and the game is probably over. Wouldn't it be good to know that you made it and adjust or didn;t make and adjust so that you have to get pretty desperate to save every second so that you have a chance for the FG to win the game?I know the other arguments, but I would rather know whether I made the 2 point conversion so that I can adjust my game plan accordingly rather than miss the 2 points conversion and probably have only a fraction of the time to adjust.Thoughts?
Have to keep it a one score game at that point.If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
This.Plus if you go for two and miss, the players are gonna be deflated because it seems impossible. But if they play defense like a turnover/punt is going to give them a chance to tie and the offense feels the urgency, then I would think you have a better chance of winning.If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
Exactly as I see it too.This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
You don't know if it's a one score game or not, because you don't know if you're going to convert on your two point try. It's better to find out sooner rather than later.Have to keep it a one score game at that point.If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
A one score game doesn't mean you are going to catch up with one score, just that you can. Hence why a 6 point lead, is still a once score game, even though you might only get a field goal.And if you go for two and miss at the end, you can try an onside kick.TobiasFunke said:You don't know if it's a one score game or not, because you don't know if you're going to convert on your two point try. It's better to find out sooner rather than later.Da Guru said:Have to keep it a one score game at that point.apalmer said:If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
What knowledge? Any advantage you get, the other team also gains.TobiasFunke said:Haven't we done this before?The obvious answer is that you go for two immediately. The obvious reason is that knowledge is power. Didn't you guys watch Schoolhouse Rock during Saturday morning cartoons?By the way, any coach or analyst who doesn't know this should be fired on the spot.
True fact...but the conclusion's wrong. If you have a one score (7 or 8 points) lead with 7 minutes left, your offense plays...close to normal. While you're not firing off 30 yards downfield, you still HAVE TO CONVERT FIRST DOWNS. If you're up 2 scores with seven minutes, you have to play it different on offense. Conservative. Run it up the gut three times and protect the ball. Kill some time and punt it.apalmer said:If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
On the other hand, if you go for two and make, the players are gonna be super inflated because it seems possible.mr roboto said:This.Plus if you go for two and miss, the players are gonna be deflated because it seems impossible. But if they play defense like a turnover/punt is going to give them a chance to tie and the offense feels the urgency, then I would think you have a better chance of winning.apalmer said:If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
The flaw in that argument (knowledge is power) is that the other team nets the same reward from knowing whether or not you need 8 points or 9 points and I'd say it would have a bigger impact on their gameplanning than yours. You need to score a TD - that's the same whether or not you're down 8 or down 9. The other team's strategy up 8 or 9 is vastly different.renesauz said:I understand the counter-argument...better to keep hope alive. That's a good argument with 2 minutes left when you know you're gonna on-side kick. At 7 minutes....it's not that simple.
At seven minutes, you can definately kick deep, but you'd at least think about on-side kick if you're down two scores. And let's face it...a failed 2 point conversion leaves you two scores down (you'd still be one score down if you fail on the second TD). Better off knowing immediately whether you MUST get the ball twice more, or if you can get it only once more.
The sure knowledge of whether you're going to need the ball once more, or twice more is well worth the attempt now.
Additionally...converting at 7 minutes puts a lot more pressure on the other team.
I'm not a fan of going for two in the first 3 quarters of a game...but the 7 minute mark is the PERFECT time down 15.
There's no strategic value in knowing that you can catch up with a single score. Either you will or you won't. I'd rather know now so I can adjust accordingly. For just one of many, many hypotheticals in which it makes a huge difference, imagine this one:A one score game doesn't mean you are going to catch up with one score, just that you can. Hence why a 6 point lead, is still a once score game, even though you might only get a field goal.And if you go for two and miss at the end, you can try an onside kick.TobiasFunke said:You don't know if it's a one score game or not, because you don't know if you're going to convert on your two point try. It's better to find out sooner rather than later.Da Guru said:Have to keep it a one score game at that point.apalmer said:If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
I completely disagree.The other team is going to be trying to control the ball on the ground and run out the clock regardless. For an example of one of the many ways in which your strategy is significantly impacted, see my above 4th and 5 example.The flaw in that argument (knowledge is power) is that the other team nets the same reward from knowing whether or not you need 8 points or 9 points and I'd say it would have a bigger impact on their gameplanning than yours. You need to score a TD - that's the same whether or not you're down 8 or down 9. The other team's strategy up 8 or 9 is vastly different.renesauz said:I understand the counter-argument...better to keep hope alive. That's a good argument with 2 minutes left when you know you're gonna on-side kick. At 7 minutes....it's not that simple.
At seven minutes, you can definately kick deep, but you'd at least think about on-side kick if you're down two scores. And let's face it...a failed 2 point conversion leaves you two scores down (you'd still be one score down if you fail on the second TD). Better off knowing immediately whether you MUST get the ball twice more, or if you can get it only once more.
The sure knowledge of whether you're going to need the ball once more, or twice more is well worth the attempt now.
Additionally...converting at 7 minutes puts a lot more pressure on the other team.
I'm not a fan of going for two in the first 3 quarters of a game...but the 7 minute mark is the PERFECT time down 15.
Warehouse Nasty said:This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
TobiasFunke said:The obvious answer is that you go for two immediately. The obvious reason is that knowledge is power. Didn't you guys watch Schoolhouse Rock during Saturday morning cartoons?By the way, any coach or analyst who doesn't know this should be fired on the spot.
But the opponent changes its strategy accordingly. the difference between 1 score and 2 scores is huge mentally and physically. I would bet anyone saying go for 2 has played too much Madden and not enough real sports.Abrantes said:Exactly as I see it too.Warehouse Nasty said:This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
Exactly. I'm normally all about statistical decision-making, but I think you need to factor in momentum here. Keeping it a one-score game keeps the players' spirits up and the game feels well within reach. We score again and the momentum is totally in our favor and the defense is deflated - increasing our chances of getting the 2 ptsmr roboto said:This.Plus if you go for two and miss, the players are gonna be deflated because it seems impossible. But if they play defense like a turnover/punt is going to give them a chance to tie and the offense feels the urgency, then I would think you have a better chance of winning.apalmer said:If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
7:00 is too much time but if it were 4:00 left I could see this. A lot of football can happen in 7 minutes. I think you play normal with this differential until less than five minutes are left and then start thinking about this kind of stuff. But in more of a time crunch this does make sense.Warehouse Nasty said:This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
I disagree because it fails to take into account psychology and mental toughness. If you go for it right away and fail, you need two scores. This lowers the odds of winning and your team isn't going to try as hard. Sure, we all like to think these guys are professionals that give 100% on every snap, but the reality is when the going gets tough, a lot of people start to quit. People aren't robots. For the purposes of team morale, its wiser to make it a one-score game (counting a TD+2 point conversion as one score) as soon as possible. In a one score game, its much more likely everyone on your team is giving 100%.Warehouse Nasty said:This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
What are your odds of converting the 2-point attempt when down by 9 (following touchdown #1)? What are your odds of converting when down by 2 (following touchdown #1/XP and then touchdown #2)? Exactly what sort of increase in probability are we talking about here?Exactly. I'm normally all about statistical decision-making, but I think you need to factor in momentum here. Keeping it a one-score game keeps the players' spirits up and the game feels well within reach. We score again and the momentum is totally in our favor and the defense is deflated - increasing our chances of getting the 2 ptsmr roboto said:This.Plus if you go for two and miss, the players are gonna be deflated because it seems impossible. But if they play defense like a turnover/punt is going to give them a chance to tie and the offense feels the urgency, then I would think you have a better chance of winning.apalmer said:If you try for 2 and don't get it, you need two scores. That lets the other team play the clock much differently than if you take 1 and can tie it up in one possession. You need to take 1 now and worry about getting the 2 the next time.
I concur, too many intangibles. How did you fall behind by 15? Was it turnovers, did your kicker already missed, are you currently controlling the game, how many timeouts do you have, etc.... so there is only one answer and that is it depends.The correct answer is other. This is entirely game dependent based on how your team and the other team is playing, and how confident you are in the play you'd run for a 2 point try. If the defense is on the ropes and you've been holding a play in your back pocket, put the screws to them. If its been a defensive struggle and you just took 4 plays on the goal line to punch in the ball, take the 1.
How much does it increase your odds of winning if you make the 2 point conversion? Won't your team psychology and mental toughness be better off when you're down 7 knowing you only need a touchdown to tie, instead of a touchdown and a 2-point conversion?I disagree because it fails to take into account psychology and mental toughness. If you go for it right away and fail, you need two scores. This lowers the odds of winning and your team isn't going to try as hard. Sure, we all like to think these guys are professionals that give 100% on every snap, but the reality is when the going gets tough, a lot of people start to quit. People aren't robots. For the purposes of team morale, its wiser to make it a one-score game (counting a TD+2 point conversion as one score) as soon as possible. In a one score game, its much more likely everyone on your team is giving 100%.Warehouse Nasty said:This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
You have to go for two at some point.The mismatch situation will not change when you're down by 2 with 10 seconds left and you MUST convert the two-pointerThe only way I go for two in this situation is if I have a huge mismatch with a great receiver or tight end one-on-one with a DB I know is hurting or has been replaced with a guy fresh off the bench. I might line up to see if I can get that mismatch and if I don't call a time out and bring the FG unit on.
I love this argument. "I don't have anything intelligent to say so I'll just pretend like I'm an ex-jock and claim that anyone who thinks differently hasn't played sports in their life." It's flawless really because you're on the internet and nobody can refute it behind a computer screen.But the opponent changes its strategy accordingly. the difference between 1 score and 2 scores is huge mentally and physically. I would bet anyone saying go for 2 has played too much Madden and not enough real sports.Abrantes said:Exactly as I see it too.Warehouse Nasty said:This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
I don't know. But anyone who's been a team leader and has had to deal with the issue of team morale knows it can have a significant impact. Sometimes, all it takes is one bad egg to start giving up and pretty soon the entire team is throwing in the towel. I can't give you a precise calculation or anything. I've just seen it a lot.How much does it increase your odds of winning if you make the 2 point conversion?I disagree because it fails to take into account psychology and mental toughness. If you go for it right away and fail, you need two scores. This lowers the odds of winning and your team isn't going to try as hard. Sure, we all like to think these guys are professionals that give 100% on every snap, but the reality is when the going gets tough, a lot of people start to quit. People aren't robots. For the purposes of team morale, its wiser to make it a one-score game (counting a TD+2 point conversion as one score) as soon as possible. In a one score game, its much more likely everyone on your team is giving 100%.Warehouse Nasty said:This is something that I think coaches get wrong more often than not. I think you go for 2 right away. If you don't get it, then you know you have to score twice more and can adjust your strategy accordingly.
Absolutely. But that wasn't the question in the poll. I would put a priority on doing what I can to keep team morale high and just kick the extra point to make it a 8 point deficit, rather than risking team morale to make it 7.Won't your team psychology and mental toughness be better off when you're down 7 knowing you only need a touchdown to tie, instead of a touchdown and a 2-point conversion?
This is the correct answerGoing for 2 early is certainly the correct call. Whether I make it, or miss it, or kick an extra point, my opponent's goal never changes- my opponent has the lead, and he's trying to kill the clock. No matter what I decide, the other team's strategy remains constant- get first downs, kill the clock. On the other hand, my strategy changes substantially. If I miss a 2pc right now, I have time to adjust- I'm going to preserve every second on the clock because I know I need two drives to win. If I miss the 2pc later, there's nothing I can do, because there's no time left on the clock.
Adjust to what? The fact that you scored a TD, and are still down two scores? You scored the TD, got within a score. Keep it within a score, a lot can happen. Maybe the other team's punter lets it go over his head thru the endzone, and you won't need a two point conversion. And maybe the other team was punting because they had to take more chances because they knew you were within a score.I am extremely surprised at how many people would kick the point...As I said in the 2nd response on the thread, wouldn't you want to know that you didn't make the two point conversion much earlier so that you have more time to adjust?
Obviously this part is just opinion, but I think you are dramatically underestimating momentum and emotion.This argument about momentum and a let down and all that is so minor. If the team was so let down that you were down by 15 with 7 minutes to go how did they muster up the energy to get into the end zone to begin with?
There is some truth to this situation, but you have to remember you already have your back against the wall and in your opponents mind, if they are up by 2 scores they will probably punt and be conservative, that actually helps you based on points scoring theory of going for it is beneficial.As for the argument there is no right answer otherwise everyone would do it...no way man, coaches make the wrong decisions at alarming frequencies. What is important to remember is this. Forget everything except the 4 outcomes on whether you make the 2 pointer or not. 1) If you go for 2 at the end of the game and miss it, the game is over unless you can recover on onside kick and then are able to get into FG range and have enough time. You're on life support2) If you go for 2 and miss it the first time, you are desperate, but your chances of recovery are better much better than #1 (this is without question)3) If you go for 2 and make it on the 1st try, based on what everyone is saying your momentum is even greater (not necessarily buying it, but in this case it would be better than the 4th choice in that the 4th choice assumes you already made the 2nd TD (which may be harder to do if you believe in momentum that much)4) You make 2 at the end of the game, but now the other team will try and score a FG with as much time as they have left.In looking at the scenarios, if you miss the 2 pointer it is clear you want to know in advance. If you could know you would make it, I would agree that I would probably wait, but even so the difference is not that much and if you do believe in momentum, it might actually be less.3) If you go for 2 at the end of the game (remember this assumes you even have this chance) you should tie gameThe obvious answer is that there is no "correct" answer. If there was, we wouldn't be having the discussion- teams would all do the same thing everytime they get in a similar situation.As for the whole "knowledge is power" argument, sure, but it's knowledge for both sides. I disagree that the opponents goal would be the same no matter what (besides the primary goal of winning the game obviously)- I think you'd certainly play a little differently depending on if you had a 7, 8, or 9 pt. lead late in the game. Don't you think the decision could change if you had a 4th and inches from near midfield under these circumstances? What about trying a 50 yd. FG? Run or pass on 3rd and 6? There's a big difference between having a 1 score vs. 2 score lead, and the strategy would change for both sides at least a little.